Earnings call transcript: Grupa KĘTY Q3 2025 misses revenue forecast

Grupa KĘTY SA reported its Q3 2025 earnings, revealing a slight miss on revenue forecasts despite an increase in earnings per share (EPS). The company posted an EPS of 17.95, while the revenue reached 1.45 billion USD, falling short of the forecasted 1.47 billion USD. Despite the revenue miss, the stock price showed resilience, rising 0.22% to 927 USD, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic direction and market position.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue fell short of expectations by 1.36%.
• EPS increased, signaling strong profitability.
• Stock price rose slightly by 0.22% post-announcement.
• Focus on growth in Aluminum Systems Segment (ASS) and Sun Protection Systems (SOP).
• European market challenges persist due to economic stagnation.

Company Performance

Grupa KĘTY demonstrated robust performance in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in net profit by 20% year-over-year, reaching over 200 million EUR. The company's strategic focus on the Aluminum Systems Segment (ASS) and Sun Protection Systems (SOP) has been pivotal in driving growth, despite the broader European economic stagnation and German recession impacting industrial production.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: 1.45 billion USD, a slight decrease from forecast.
• EPS: 17.95, reflecting strong profitability.
• EBITDA: 229 million EUR, a 2 million EUR increase year-over-year.
• Net profit: Over 200 million EUR, a 20% increase year-over-year.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Grupa KĘTY's revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.45 billion USD, missing the forecast by 1.36%. However, the EPS of 17.95 was in line with expectations, indicating strong operational efficiency. This revenue miss contrasts with previous quarters where forecasts were generally met or exceeded, suggesting potential market challenges.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Grupa KĘTY's stock price increased by 0.22%, closing at 927 USD. This modest rise suggests that investors remain optimistic about the company's strategic initiatives and market position, despite the revenue shortfall. The stock is trading within its 52-week range, which spans from 665 to 957 USD.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Grupa KĘTY maintains its full-year EBITDA forecast of 990 million EUR, anticipating a stronger second half of the year. The company plans to invest 400 million EUR in capital expenditures next year, focusing on expanding its ASS and SOP segments. This strategic focus is expected to drive future growth and enhance competitive positioning.

Executive Commentary

Ron Shibirski, President of the Board, emphasized the company's reliance on growth in the Alloprof segment, stating, "We rely on further growth of Alloprof." CFO Rapha Warbehovski reaffirmed the company's financial targets, saying, "We maintain our forecast for EBITDA for the entire year at the level of 990 million EUR."

Risks and Challenges

• Economic stagnation in Europe could impact demand.
• German recession poses risks to industrial production.
• Volatility in raw material prices could affect margins.
• Market variability in construction and industrial sectors.
• Potential integration challenges with recent acquisitions.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the potential impacts of the CBAM mechanism and raw material price fluctuations. The company addressed these concerns by highlighting its strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies. Additionally, discussions focused on the synergies between group companies and the strategic direction of various segments.

Full transcript - Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) Q3 2025:

Unidentified Moderator, Conference Moderator: Good morning. Welcome. We are past another quarterly report, which Grupakanda has just published, just released yesterday, the company has published a report for the previous nine months. As every quarter, the management of the company and of the group meets with all of you and so is today. We have the President of the Board, Ron Shibirski and Rapha Warbehovski, Member of the Board and CFO.

As a standard, the presentation is going to be started by the President of the Board, while the operating activity and financial results will be committed by Ravva Perhovski. Then we will move on to the session of questions and answer. We encourage you to ask them and to post them. We'll do our best to answer all of them. I give the floor to Mr.

President. UNIDENTIFIED Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's my pleasure to welcome you here at this conference, especially since it is good time. We can boast some very decent results from the third quarter, especially given the difficulties at the market. The market situation is, as you are perfectly aware of, is that we have this stable variability, we might say.

It is not just the subsequent quarters, successive quarters, but another year where the economy is stagnant in most of Europe. As I read in one of the articles recently, the German recession is doing well. So this is basically the situation. The signals from the market are either better or worse. In some months, the industrial production grows.

In others, it declines. The same goes with Poland, I suppose, the same vibe we can read as far as the production for the construction installation industry. Some months are better, others are worse. Some investments started. It all goes up.

However, due to building permits, it goes down. So there is a huge variability. The trend of stability is continued, is maintained. And against this background, our financial results are what they are, significant increases in revenues and financial results, which I will comment in a moment. So we believe that right now, the market will stay.

It will continue to be difficult. We don't see some harbingers of a rebound. There are significant. There are major. Most of industries in Western Europe are not doing nicely, which is obviously something that is of consequence to the Polish companies that are parts to the value chains and supply chains.

However, we always consider it worth going into details. We should definitely always focus on individual segments. There is no such thing as industry of construction. Single family house is doing better than the housing apartments or blocks of flats or road construction. We're always trying to break it down into details.

So this picture is far more positive, I think, because it confirms what has already been stated in our strategy and what we have been pursuing throughout years. We rely on further growth of Alloprof. So the development of the ASS as well as EPS were the mega translated to the circular economy and further economic growth. And everything that aluminum gives us will be conducive to our growth. At the same time, we believe that in most markets of Europe, there is still a lot of place where we can really find our spot.

And this is yet another quarter, which has proven that we have been doing that quite effectively. We see this effectiveness in the ASS results, where there was significant increase in sales, also very decent margin. At EPS, also the volume is rather nice. However, the margin pressure is something that we have experienced. As far as the Flexible Packaging segment, the volume has grown, margin is stable, but more details in a moment.

And the most important thing, really wraps it up wraps up the introduction, there was significant growth at the level of EBITDA as well as net profit. We are talking about values that are nearly the same as we had projected. Hence, the reason for our rejoicing. The CFO will give you more details. I'll you the floor.

RAMAKRISHNAN Thank you very much, and hello. Consolidated financial results, that starts with our group's results. As Roman has just mentioned, in fact, we follow nearly exactly the forecast from a month ago. Importantly, this is also a focus that matches the budget assumptions. And keep in mind that we had higher goals for the second half of the year.

So I'm more than happy that we follow those results and follows those projections. It is noteworthy that we have managed to achieve these results, thanks to the increase in the scale of activity. In all the segments, we increased sales and production. As far as the quantitative dimension of the turnover, something that may have limited the dynamic of growth, what's the ratings of raw materials? Both the aluminum as well as our granules or resins, the LEP resin, we could have achieved high results if it hadn't been for the general economic situation.

Now EBITDA is at a very high level with margin at 20 and EUR $229,000,000 in a quarter. That's €2,000,000 more year over year. We are more than happy. The driving force here, as we will comment in an moment, is the segment of Aluminum Systems. Now as far as the whole balance, we are talking about, well, interest mainly, slightly higher than presumed than a year ago.

We bought CELTA in September, having incurred EUR 400,000,000 of investment loan for that purpose. And some part of this increase is explained by about EUR 1,000,000 plus of certain exchange rate differences. A year ago, there was a negative exchange rate difference in this quarter of about PLN100000. So half of that increase is due to interest rates, the other due to the balance of exchange rate differences. And 20% increase after taxation of more than EUR 200,000,000.

We have beat the results from a year ago, which is very important because there was about EUR $335,000,000 on deferred income last year. So the last year's result is supported by all those one off events this year as well. Moving on to what mainly contributes to our EBITDA, that is twothree of EBITDA comes from the Aluminum Systems segment. And practically, the entire increase across this quarter year over year is something that we consider to be very decent. Even if we deduct the effect of consolidation of CELTA throughout the whole quarter, just as a reminder, that was just September, still the results are rather satisfactory, very high, I would say.

What's also very positive is that we develop, we grow evenly, both in architectural systems as well as in sun protection products, we grow everywhere. The only case in this particular example is the slight decrease in the billet premium as well as the aluminum prices was something that was detrimental. However, EBITDA was due to our high sales efficiency, cost effectiveness, all translating into very satisfactory quarter. One word of comment as far as Seltzer results, we present them in the structure as some production products. So there are slightly, slightly different structure of sales here.

However, this is just an effect of consolidation. But parts of this segment actually develop evenly. As far as the Extruded Products segment, in this respect, here underneath the table at the graph, you can see very different exposure of the segment. In many areas of the economy, actually, the situation is either variable or rather difficult, if not very difficult. And this is something we have experienced.

However, what the market implies in a market that is often declining, maybe not increasing, we managed to we have managed to increase the volume. We have 80% of utilization of our resources, all due to the efficiency of the activities of our sales forces. It all allows us to compensate over negative market trends, the EBITDA being at the profitability level, just slightly above 10% only, even though it is 11% less year over year. This is a still good result. Last one, last segment I wanted to tell you about is the flexible packaging segment, which is exposed to a different part of market.

However, the market condition is not something that is very positive to the segment. It wasn't too it wasn't contributing much to the Express. However, there was also some specific exposure here. Good news is that the volumes in both segments are 2% more year over year. So even in such a difficult situation, we can manage, we can handle, which obviously also translates into high efficiency 20 more than 22 EBITDA margin, slightly lower on a year over year basis.

But still, the ratings of raw materials had an impact on the margin. Naturally, it's more than one dozen percent for polyethylene in terms of drops and more than 20% for polypropylene. So we can clearly see those trends having very significant impact on the segment and had a huge pressure on the margin. In terms of the quantitative basis, not turbulent structure of sales. The raw material ratings caused several percentage points drop in the BOPP film contribution because BOPP film was just most exposed to all these trends.

A summary of the financial ratios. A word of introduction. Cash flow. And next to what Raman has just mentioned, very, very strong, very powerful cash flow here. We have already paid €164,000,000 of this in dividend payment this quarter, thanks to EBITDA being very strong and standing strong.

Apart of that outlay, we also compensated for the operating capital investment, taxation, interest. So we maintain the level of debt at the same price point, at the same level point as in June. The net debt to EBITDA ratio being very secure and sound. Moving to CapEx swiftly. Quarter to quarter, CapEx has been growing.

In the last period of the year, it will be slightly higher. However, spending across the whole year will continue to be lower. We have been observing the consolidation process and the spending was lower, about EUR 100,000,000 is what we are talking about. I think that what the next slide shows. The last item is the optimization.

Optimization of investment outlays. We are expecting that to reach about, well, 100,000,000 less than as assumed in budgetary assumptions. And two news important here. About 20%, 25%, it's fixed savings. About half of that amount will be moved to next year.

I believe that roughly half of the amount to be moved to another period accounts for the tasks already contracted. That's what a calendar is about. Actually, they are going to be recognized in our financial results in the next year. Now as far as the market environment is concerned, no significant changes there. The comment provided in the introduction is still valid.

We have observed aluminum prices growing in October. And unfortunately, again, the petrochemicals and their ratings were falling. However, business wise, operation wise, in terms of the Flexible Packaging segments and Aluminum Systems segment. This is actually something that confirms an increased trend sorry, in the Flexible Packaging and Extruded Products segments. Important events, actually, we will pay the second tranche of dividend in November, about 400,000,000 there to be paid off.

And our net debt to EBITDA ratio will be at about 1.4, 1.5 at the end of the year, depending on the debt variability. We are planning to formally complete the CELTA integration. We have just released a plan for merger of SELT with Alloprov. Everything is going to be completed by mid November. We assume and we also assume that such a merger will be registered officially via the court of law.

So starting from December, CELT will continue to function as the parent company for both areas. Now the focus of results. I think we are quite convinced that the lacking EBITDA is something at a level that we can provide, we can deliver that and cover for that. So we're assuming that this tiny surplus of just several percent will be maintained. It's definitely maintainable.

So the projection REPRESENTATIVE:] is

Ron Shibirski, President of the Board, Grupakanda: makes us at a safe side. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Let us move on to questions. We don't have many of them for now.

My first the first question is what part of EPS is covered by the ASS segment. What was the volume of sales to external customers after clearing intra group sales? More or less on average, it's about onethree of sales that is directed to the ASS that is treated as any other customer on market conditions and market prices. As for increases in volume in the EPS segment, it's quite a lot of the increase in sales, quite a large chunk of it. Okay.

Second question. When publishing the annual forecast, you mentioned that in the second half of the year, EBITDA would be about €40,000,000 higher than in the first half of the year. Is there any chance that this could be maintained despite the fact that in Q3 EBITDA is similar to Q2? Will Q4 actually be about €40,000,000 better than Q1? Well, ladies and gentlemen, as Rafael has just said, we maintain our forecast for EBITDA for the entire year at the level of $990,000,000 because what we're missing for the last quarter after Q3 results seems totally realistic.

Though I have to say that I have this sports like approach to it. We motivate one another. We would like to have one at the beginning of the number. But the official projection is that we maintain this €990,000,000 more word of comment. We did say that the second half of the year, it will be better.

It's repeatedly better. So we don't see any hurdles to it, as Romansson says. So it's based on our operational effectiveness. And this better second half actually assumed a rebound on the market, which we cannot see. It's going to be more level this second half of the year.

Thank you very much. Now due to limitation of the value of investments in 2025 by million, should we anticipate any significant increase in outlays in the consecutive year? We will obviously present probably mid December, we will present CapEx and projections. For now, about 70 projects that are transferred two consecutive years or are under analysis. So some are to be decided on yet.

For next year, we assumed €400,000,000 CapEx originally, and it seems that this level will not be crossed even if we do have some projects shifted. So the increase versus €230,000,000 it's possible, but it will not double the amount for sure. We have a question regarding the development of the company in the next five, ten years. I would like to refer you to our website to the tab Investor Relations, where you have a sub page that sub side that answers this question. We publish projections for the maximum of five years, so you will not find ten years there.

But detailed assumptions, including financial projections and forecasts for a five year period and also objectives in terms of ESG are included there in this tab. So go there to find the answer to the question. Another question concerning the following year. What can be the preliminary expectations of the management board for 2026? Is it possible to maintain the dynamics of EBITDA from 2025?

Ladies and gentlemen, we're starting the budgeting process. We hope that we'll be able to show you some guidance in December. But today, it's a little bit too early to answer such detailed questions. Okay, thank you. Now another question.

Do we see some more movement in domestic customers in September, October? Well, Rafael has already answered it. In October, we see this September thrive has slowed down actually. Well, today, October looks quite promising. Actually, in terms of development and growth, I'm answering the question regarding the growth for consecutive years.

Our main segment is ASS in terms of architecture system and shielding systems. October looks good. We've had a series of meetings with regional customers of Alloprov where we talked about the market segment, how they see the market of several 100 customers and their locations, are they promising and optimistic. These were informative meetings. And the sentiment is inducing us to consistently continue the strategy that we have shown to you.

And it's available on the website where we tell you about our ambitions, our directions of growth, and we maintain these ambitions from that strategy. We would like to be aluprof to a bigger extent with a production base post EPS and excellence in FPS. But the main growth will be in the ASS segment and SOP segment. It will be not only in a short term perspective but beyond the five perspective. So we're just wondering where the sector is going to evolve, where the threats, and we work on it intensely.

It's reflected in the strategy that we have presented to you. It will also be reflected in our acquisition strategy. So we remain optimistic. Okay. Thank you.

As our SELT results and cleared ASS results, you will find the answer in the presentation. You'll get some numbers there for specific categories for sales and for Q3 twenty twenty four. So please go to the presentation for the answers for Q3 this year. And CIBA mechanism, do we expect changes in the pattern of purchasing aluminum? What are the physical contracting what's the physical level of contracting for 2026 for the purchase of aluminum?

It's difficult to tell how this mechanism is going to work. Well, obviously, everybody may have a different opinion, right? From our perspective, it seems that we were not expecting any specific turbulence or improvements. So we actually continue our purchase policy that we have in place that is securing us against fluctuations on the prices of raw materials, which allows us to service provide services for our customers in the most rational way. But we're not going to speculate on some regulatory actions.

I'll tell you about the CBOM comment. We speak about that as a sector. This is a faulty mechanism. It has many gaps. And its introduction will not be of benefit for many European producers.

But please do remember, we're not steelworks. Producers of aluminum. We're producers of process materials. We'll keep buying aluminum on the market as we keep as we do it as we have been doing so far. So it should not affect our strategy.

Now the FBS, Flexible Packaging segment, question on the actual impact on the drop in the prices of raw materials to the results? Is it the effect or any other It's not about the FIFO effect, but it's actually happening within months. So expectations of customers are following the trends in raw materials. So at lower prices, this pressure on introducing our margin on production and sales, commercial margin, that makes sense. But translating prices at lower levels, it does induce pressure on prices.

But it induces also increasing the volume in both foil and packaging. But are we at the bottom of margin in the Extruded Products segment? And do we see any first harbingers of improvement in the environment in any of the sector that are serviced by the Extruded Products segment? Well, ladies and gentlemen, as we've said, as Raphael has said, by describing the EPS, we don't see any changes in the economic situation. But what makes these results good despite these is difficult our effort, our work with the customers on the market.

But also on an ongoing basis, we make sure we track all the costs and expenses, and we will continue such actions. This should be reflected in the results further on. I would also like to note, referring to one of the previous questions, that our strength is also the structure of our group of companies. We will affect EPS results through the increase in the ASS and EFPS. Due to that, we will have more coverage in costs internal costs by in group sales.

And it will allow us to act stronger on an external market on the market of external customers. So regardless of whether there's some movement on the market, there's still a lot of customers in Europe. But every business, every stagnation, every crisis must reach a point of rebound. And it has to be observed in the construction section. Automotive in European countries also will probably get out of this of this gap.

But I don't want to speculate whether it's going to be in a short or longer perspective. What are the perspectives for SELT company and for the entire segment that produces solar shield, solar protection systems. I don't understand if I grasp the question. But as for lack of strategic assumptions, these are the reasons why we spoke about when we bought, acquired, sell. We think it's a segment for business due to certain megatrends that are related to climate change, energy saving and the fact that there's more and more people who would like to have some generate some savings in electricity through shielding some protection.

So this segment is solidly grounded on macro conditions. But we also think that this business, CELT, is in huge synergy with our business, with Alloprof and ASS specifically. I'm referring back to the series of meetings that we've had. These are customers of Alloprov and SELT, both these companies. And we see that this cross selling and the option of getting into each other's sales channels is huge.

And we would like to use even more the channels of sales of Alloprov abroad of our own distribution companies. So there's a lot of internal synergies that we see and we would like to use and take advantage of consistently. And returning back to the previous question, the production of SELT is construction of profiles from EPS. So it goes together with the synergy. It fits the pattern.

So we see that Sun Protection Systems segment is a prospective, and it will keep growing. UNIDENTIFIED

Unidentified Moderator, Conference Moderator: Thank you very much. Now, a rather cross sectional question. Will the pressure of competition or the change of trends continue to involve margin compression or compression of markup? Now what's quite precisely awaited for Winners strategy was the increase in the flexible packaging segments. I think we are quite well projecting the trends.

Obviously, this is a very competitive, highly competitive business still. We believe that the vector picked by the segments of the increase in production, which clearly matches the trends observed right now, makes our position competitive edge and all other advantages that we have already built becoming even stronger. Is it hardly imaginable whether or not this is going to be a competitive business? Well, it's really not that possible. Still, we believe that we maintained our market position.

The investment that will become available in 2028, the effects thereof will definitely increase our value in the segment. Thank you. What about the Aluminum Systems segment? Are you planning there any priceless changes this year? I think this is a very, let's say, trade commercial market dependent question.

We never know who is asking. And it doesn't pertain the strategy of quarterly results. So forgive me, but I would deny providing this answer. Thank you very much. I see that has just been the very last question posed.

No, it's not, actually. Mr. Chabelsky has mentioned certain flaws pitfalls to the CBAM mechanism. We're not manufacturer of aluminum. However, the CBAM should have an impact on the market of products and semi finished products.

What is the standpoint of the company? CBAM in this current format anticipated to be implemented, has many legs unfortunately promoting what is referred to as the emission exports. So instead of manufacturing something in Europe, it will be more profitable to import it from countries that are less restrictive ecology wise compared to Europe, which matches also the trend in the scrap export flowing in masses out of Europe. It's more and more difficult to buy aluminum scrap in Europe at reasonable prices because, actually, it goes to American or Asian producers that can actually produce what is more cost effective that can be then moved to the European market. However, keep in mind that we are talking about products where the value of products themselves vis a vis transport cost is not that significant.

So in other words, we are not facing a competition that will flow our market with Chinese or American products as it was the case of the automotive market. We are not projecting any particular impact on our business in the future being particularly painful or detrimental to the business. However, obviously, to a certain extent, we may experience these effects. I'm more concerned about the C band because I believe that it will have generally a negative impact on the European economy on numerous industries in Europe, which obviously are those where our customers are, which drive the general economic condition. So it's just a matter of care of this over economic condition of Europe.

Instead of thinking about this single market or energy infrastructure, instead of taking care of the competitiveness of European manufacturers, instead of that, then just to be a particular challenge to Grupacante. Now we are just speaking for the entire aluminum industry. We want to support other businesses operating in other areas of the value chain. In a follow-up to the CBEM subject, I have an impression that CBEM was supposed to counteract the emission export. What do you think is wrong about it?

What is your main area of concern given this regulation? Yes, the idea was precisely that. And it was quite just. However, as with most regulations and overregulation, the devil is into detail, unfortunately. Following the first collection of data is too complicated in the first place.

Secondly, the system offers a lot of bypasses. Thirdly, foreign producers are ready for that. For instance, aluminum producers or those that deliver aluminum based products in Asia, they can manufacture based on black energy or high emission solutions. And by that means they can just provide their products as green once they get to the European market after all, in spite of the system. This system is unfortunately highly flawed, even though its underlying concept is very, very praiseworthy.

And then it's very complicated. Any adjustments require political consensus. The world has changed a lot. Decisions on tariffs and customs duties are made overnight, as you can see. I'm not suggesting that Europe should follow in America's footsteps.

But basically, if there is a threat to the industry, you should introduce a tariff instead of very complicated mechanisms that imposed more duties upon European manufacturers, still having a lot of flaws and bypasses and pitfalls decreasing instead of increasing their competitiveness. Now this is a subject that is secondary and definitely not related to our Q3 results. However, what I do recommend to you is to become familiar with a lot of reports and studies on that because there are plenty of those. The European and Polish Association of Aluminum Producers, we are speaking with one single voice. Are using the same language.

So I think that should really close this particular subject at this point. Please ask us about our results for this quarter. Thank you. And I think that indeed has been the very last question. That being the case, we'd like to thank you very much for your kind attention.

Another meeting of ours, another conference will deliver forecasts and projections for 2026 results that are planned to be released at mid December. You are invited already. I would like to thank the members of the Board for the presentation and providing all the replies to your questions. And thank you for posting your questions. Quite complicated to say the least, some of them.

And obviously, feel invited to meet us in two months' time. Thank you very much. Thank you for your attention.

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