Earnings call transcript: Guild Holdings Q4 2024 beats revenue forecast

Guild Holdings Co. (GHLD) reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a revenue of $373 million, which significantly surpassed the forecast of $297.3 million. However, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $0.32 fell short of the anticipated $0.34. Following the announcement, Guild’s stock experienced a decline, closing at $12.75 in aftermarket trading, a 2.64% drop from the previous close.

Key Takeaways

• Guild Holdings reported a substantial revenue beat, with a 25.5% increase over forecasts.
• Despite missing EPS expectations, the company demonstrated strong year-over-year growth in net income and revenue.
• Stock reacted negatively in aftermarket trading, dropping by 2.64%.
• The company continues to expand its servicing portfolio and enhance its technology infrastructure.

Company Performance

Guild Holdings exhibited significant growth in its financial performance compared to the previous year. The company’s total originations increased by 57% year-over-year to $24 billion, while net revenue grew by 60% to $1 billion. Net income attributable to Guild reached $97.1 million, a considerable improvement from the previous year’s net loss of $39 million. InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 2.26, indicating strong short-term liquidity, though it’s currently experiencing significant cash burn. Get access to 6 more exclusive ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $373 million, up from the forecasted $297.3 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.32, below the forecasted $0.34.
• Adjusted net income: $90.2 million, representing an 88% increase year-over-year.
• Full-year adjusted EBITDA: $134.8 million, an 80% increase.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Guild Holdings reported a revenue of $373 million, exceeding the forecast by $75.7 million, a 25.5% positive surprise. However, the EPS of $0.32 missed the forecast of $0.34 by 5.9%. This mixed result reflects strong revenue generation but slightly lower profitability than expected.

Market Reaction

Guild Holdings’ stock price fell by 2.64% in aftermarket trading, closing at $12.75. This decline comes despite the company’s strong revenue performance, suggesting investor concerns over the EPS miss. The stock is trading closer to its 52-week low of $11.21, with a beta of 1.01 indicating market-aligned volatility. InvestingPro analysts have set price targets ranging from $11.50 to $19.00, reflecting mixed sentiment about the company’s prospects. Discover more detailed valuation metrics and expert analysis with InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports, available for over 1,400 US stocks.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Guild Holdings remains optimistic about its growth strategy. The company anticipates ongoing challenges from high interest rates but plans to continue investing in technology and expanding its market reach. For the first quarter of 2025, the company has already reported originations of $3.1 billion through February.

Executive Commentary

David Nalen, President of Guild Holdings, stated, "We’re positioned well for the purchase environment as well as anything if rates were to drop." CFO Amber Kramer added, "We have full confidence that our enhanced platform and strategic position will drive accelerated growth as market conditions normalize."

Risks and Challenges

• High interest rates continue to pose a challenge to the mortgage industry.
• The potential for economic downturns could impact housing market activity.
• Competition remains fierce, with Guild holding less than 2% market share.
• Regulatory changes could affect mortgage and servicing operations.
• Technology investments require careful management to ensure returns.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the normal seasonality of the spring home buying season, recent loan officer acquisitions, and strategies for mortgage servicing rights (MSR) retention and valuation. The company highlighted its focus on maintaining a natural hedge between originations and servicing segments.

Full transcript - Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) Q4 2024:

Conference Operator: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Guild Holdings Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session with instructions to follow at that time. As a reminder, this call will be recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Investor Relations, Guild Holdings: Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I’d like to remind everyone that comments on this conference call may contain certain forward looking statements regarding the company’s expected operating and financial performance for future periods and industry trends. These statements are based on the company’s current expectations. Preliminary results for any portion of the quarter may not be indicative of full quarter results and are subject to management and auditor customary review procedures. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements due to a number of risks or other factors that are described in greater detail under the section titled Risk Factors and Guild’s most recently filed annual report on Form 10 ks and in other reports subsequently filed with the U.

S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, today’s remarks will refer to certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release furnished today with the SEC and are also available on Guild’s Investor Relations website. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Terry Smith.

Terry?

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year ’20 ’20 ’4 results and strategic update. With me today is David Nalen, our President and Chief Operating Officer and Amber Kramer, our CFO. I’m pleased to report that 2024 was our strongest year of growth as a public company, marked by exceptional execution of our strategy. We focused on expanding market share to build on our customer for life approach.

We not only grew our origination segment faster than the industry, we delivered strong earnings and positive return on equity improved by our operational leverage and at the same time generated quality assets that in turn increased our cash flow generation as we grew our mortgage servicing rights in the servicing segment. And lastly, all of this was achieved with industry leading customer satisfaction rankings. The momentum we saw throughout the year was remarkable with total originations increasing 57% year over year to $24,000,000,000 outpacing the industry origination increase of 22% as published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Now let me share some key financial highlights for the year. Net revenue increased 60% to $1,000,000,000 while our expenses in contrast increased by only 33%, which means we’re realizing the scale benefits we anticipated.

Our net income attributable to Guild was $97,100,000 compared to a net loss of $39,000,000 in the prior year, while adjusted net income totaled $90,200,000 compared to $48,000,000 an 88% increase. Full year adjusted EBITDA reached $134,800,000 up from $74,800,000 in 2023, representing an 80% increase year over year and diluted adjusted earnings per share grew 86% during the same period. Additionally, we maintained our strategic focus on purchase originations, which represented 88% of our closed loan volume, significantly outperforming the industry average of 72% as reported by the MBA. In 2024, our purchase volume was 16 percentage points better than the MBA compared to 8.4% in 2023. We continue to perform ahead of the industry.

We would not have reached these growth goals without the strength of our sales teams. According to MMI records, our loan officers were 28% more productive than the industry average. This solid performance underscores the strength of our retail focus model and our ability to execute in challenging market conditions. The strength of Guild’s balanced business model and customers for life strategy shined in 2024 with healthy growth in our servicing line of business. In 2024, we expanded our servicing portfolio to approximately $93,000,000,000 an increase of 9% from the prior year, while maintaining a high quality portfolio.

We also increased our recapture opportunities with a 44% refinance capture rate, while improving our total 2024 recapture rate to 35%, up from 27% a year ago. Additionally, in 2024, our servicing business once again received HUD’s Tier one rating, which demonstrates our commitment to high standards and the preservation of homeownership for FHA borrowers. A HUD Tier one ranking is achieved through disciplined servicing practices, a high level of regulatory compliance, and most importantly, the dedication to keeping families in their homes during times of financial difficulties. This is a distinction all guild stakeholders can be very proud of. Looking ahead, we continue to make investments in our integrated technology platforms to mine our database for opportunities in our servicing portfolio to drive leads back to the retail origination business and fulfill our customers for life strategy.

Since the industry began to face headwinds with rising rates several years ago, we have successfully increased market share through acquisitions and organic recruitment enabled by our solid balance sheet and prudent financial management. Over this time, we acquired the retail lending assets of six mortgage lenders and our success in organic recruiting has been especially noteworthy as the strength of our Guild brand, integrated technology platform and balanced business model continues to attract top producing loan officers. Since 2020, we have almost doubled our loan officers, which has contributed to our above industry average loan production. What’s particularly encouraging is that despite our substantial market share gains, we still represent less than 2% of the total market, indicating significant runway for continued growth. Looking ahead, while we anticipate ongoing rate headwinds, GILDE is well positioned for enhanced growth as we realize the benefits of the scale and operational leverage we have built.

We will continue to leverage our expanded loan officer network and remain opportunistic in both recruiting and M and A opportunities. Our focus remains on making homeownership more accessible through local relationships, delivering a best in class consumer experience and utilizing technology to enhance processes and reduce production costs. We remain confident that our strategy of continuing to grow through this cycle will create long term value for our shareholders as we focus on achieving profitable market share gains. I want to thank all of the Guild team members for their continued hard work and commitment to the Guild values, each of which are a critical element of our ongoing success. With that, I’ll turn the call over to David for more detail on our near term outlook and positioning.

David?

David Nalen, President and Chief Operating Officer, Guild Holdings: Thank you, Terry. I’ll echo Terry’s comments that 2024 was a tremendous year of growth for Gilt and we are pleased with the work of our teams as they demonstrated how our strategic conviction to invest through market downturns has positioned Gild for long term growth. Our expanding market share is delivering the gains we intended to see as we realize the strong performance more scale presents, while we also see the opportunity ahead of us to drive even better results with continued growth and precise execution in our lines of business. Looking at our fourth quarter results, we generated total originations of $6,700,000,000 compared to $3,600,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, an 86% increase year over year. Our net income in the fourth quarter was $97,900,000 compared to a net loss of $93,100,000 in the prior year period, while adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter reached $30,900,000 compared to $13,200,000 in the prior year period.

These results were supported by solid performances in both our originations and servicing businesses, including our second sequential quarter of positive net income in our origination segment. Our retention and recapture rates remain solid, demonstrating the strength of our Customer for Life strategy and balanced business model. We maintain a significant servicing portfolio with an unpaid balance of $93,000,000,000 at year end, which continues to provide reliable earnings and future business opportunities. This balanced approach combined with our proven and scalable growth strategy positions us well for continued market share gains as we proved to be an industry leader in first time homebuyer business and then serving that customer for multiple transactions over their home ownership journey. While we expect some continued headwinds and quarter to quarter variability until we see further rate improvements and increased home inventory, our strategic positioning remains strong.

Our focus on the community driven retail purchase business continues to serve us well, particularly as we expand our reach to first time homebuyers in growing market segments, including the Hispanic market, which is expanding at twice the rate of other demographics. Looking ahead, we are pleased to expand our efforts to serve new homebuyers through our new program called Promise of Home that combines Guild’s leading product set with educational events, down payment assistance and local partnerships designed to help more families become homeowners for the first time. Beyond originations, we’ve made significant investments in our platform that are yielding results. Our AI initiatives have been well received and we are actively expanding these applications including additional capabilities of Guild IQ, our proprietary AI platform that makes our company knowledge base more accessible for loan officers and fulfillment staff. We have also expanded our service offerings to make the home buying process more convenient.

We recently completed the integration of Waterton Insurance as we rebranded it to Guild Insurance Services and enhanced our customer offerings beyond lending. By offering our borrowers an opportunity to receive a quote from multiple insurance carriers at convenient points in both the origination and servicing process, we are further streamlining and deepening their relationship with Guild. We believe we’ve built an industry leading talent base and company culture, so I’m particularly proud of our team’s continued industry leading performance as evidenced by several industry awards further affirming our commitment to our excellence. There are a few notable examples for 2024, we ranked as the most reviewed lender on zillow.com and garnered the most five star reviews on that platform. Additionally, we were given accolades by several organizations such as experience.com where we were recognized as a top 10 performer for mortgages, an achievement given to only 1% of participating companies and loan officers.

Guild was also named the top large independent mortgage banker nationwide by Strathmore’s MortgageCX best in class program. Guild servicing division earned Fannie Mae’s star performer recognition for demonstrating measurable results and advancing the mission to preserving homeownership. Notably, this is our eighth consecutive year in achieving this status. Additionally, for the second consecutive year, Gilder was recognized as a top guaranteed rural housing lender by the USDA, which is focused on lending to assist rural families and individuals with low to moderate income for their area. And we were also designated as a military friendly company for the second year in a row.

Looking forward, we remain committed to our opportunistic and strategic growth, excellence in customer service, enhancing our technology infrastructure and expanding our product offerings so that we can meet the evolving needs of the marketplace. Our focus remains on delivering value to our customers, while executing our growth strategy in a disciplined manner. And now I’ll hand over to Amber who will provide a more detailed financial overview. Amber?

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: Thank you, David. Given a return to more traditional seasonal patterns in the mortgage industry, I will provide commentary on both sequential quarter and year over year comparisons. For the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we generated $6,700,000,000 of total loan originations compared to $3,600,000,000 in the prior year fourth quarter and $6,900,000,000 in the third quarter. Net revenue totaled $373,000,000 compared to $57,000,000 in the prior year and $159,000,000 in the third quarter, which generated net income attributable to Guild of $98,000,000 compared to a net loss of $93,000,000 in the prior year and a loss of $67,000,000 in the third quarter. Adjusted net income was $20,000,000 or $0.32 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA was $31,000,000 Now turning to our Origination segment.

We are proud to report that we realized the second sequential quarter net income reporting $1,000,000 despite the ongoing volatile market conditions. This demonstrates the growth we have made as a business both through acquisitions and organic recruiting and our ability to capture originations across market environments. Our gain on sale margin in the fourth quarter came in at three seventeen basis points compared to three thirty basis points in the prior year fourth quarter and three thirty three basis points in the third quarter on funded originations. For the full year, the gain on sale margin was three thirty two basis points. Gain on sale margins on pull through adjusted lock volume was three sixty basis points, up from three forty seven in the prior year fourth quarter and three twenty one in the third quarter.

Total pull through adjusted lock volume was $5,700,000,000 compared to $3,300,000,000 in the prior year fourth quarter and $6,900,000,000 in the third quarter. For our servicing segment, our portfolio grew to $93,000,000,000 We reported net income of $152,000,000 compared to a net loss of $72,000,000 in the prior year fourth quarter and a net loss of $75,000,000 in the third quarter, with the differences primarily attributable to MSR valuation changes. Our servicing portfolio continues to be a valuable source for ongoing cash flow, future opportunities for loan recapture and it reinforces our customer for life strategy. Furthermore, our business model, which combines the originations and the servicing segments, provides for a natural hedge over time as rate declines should translate into higher originations, both purchase and refinances. Our balance sheet remains strong and provides us with the flexibility to continue to invest in our growth.

Turning to liquidity, as of December 31, cash and cash equivalents totaled $118,000,000 while unutilized loan funding capacity was $1,300,000,000 and the unutilized mortgage servicing rights lines of credit was $235,000,000 based on total committed amounts and borrowing base limitations. Maintaining a well positioned balance sheet continues to be a key priority for Guild. Our leverage ratio was 1.7 times at quarter end, a strong indicator of our prudent financial management. Tangible net book value per share was $16.59 We are confident in our ability to navigate any market environment, while simultaneously making strategic investments to enhance our long term value proposition. In addition, we continued our efforts to return capital to shareholders.

Specifically during the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 28,000 shares at an average stock price of $13.95 per share. As of 12/31/2024, there was $10,000,000 remaining under the original $20,000,000 share repurchase authorization. Subsequent to year end, the company’s Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $0.5 per share on companies Class A common stock and Class B common stock payable on 03/31/2025, to stockholders of record at the close of business on 03/17/2025. Quarter to date through February, we have generated $3,100,000,000 of loan originations and $3,600,000,000 of pull through adjusted lock volume. As we look ahead, we recognize that market conditions may continue to show fluctuations, yet we’re encouraged by our sustained momentum and growing market share, particularly the strength we’re seeing in our originations business.

Our strategic investments in platform development combined with successful organic growth initiatives and targeted acquisitions position us well to deepen our lasting customer relationships. While the broader market recovery continues to progress gradually, we remain patient and focus on our long term vision. We have full confidence that our enhanced platform and strategic position will drive accelerated growth as market conditions normalize. And with that, we’ll open up the call for questions. Operator?

Conference Operator: Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question is from Derek Summers with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Just wondering if you could provide any commentary about how the spring home buying season is shaping up and if you view, is there any key rate thresholds you see that would make the environment more constructive?

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: We’re pretty much seeing and experiencing the kind of normal seasonality that we always do, where in the past spring buying season starts heating up, it’s starting already. So, we see it to be pretty similar to how we’ve seen it in the past. You want to add anything to that, David or Amber?

David Nalen, President and Chief Operating Officer, Guild Holdings: Yes, this is David. I would say that I do think borrowers are recognizing that rates are going to remain higher for longer, that there’s going to be some volatility. And so I think that is on the purchase side, pulling in some potential buyers that have maybe been sitting on the sideline. So we’re certainly seeing good activity. However, I do think it is really representative of the seasonality that Terry mentioned.

But again, we’re positioned well for purchase environment as well as anything if rates were to drop from a potential refinance activity as well.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Got it. And then just on the acquisition you guys have made over the past year or so. Do you view those kind of loan officers as fully integrated? Just trying to get a more of a sense for kind of same store growth versus acquired growth?

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Yes, we do. It usually takes to get them fully integrated. It’s a good sixty two months to six months. And the last acquisition we had, we just hit the one year anniversary last week for Academy. So we’ve got them fully ramped up.

Everything is going very well with actually all the acquisitions. They’re really on schedule and where we thought they would be. So it’s very good.

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: And I would just add to that. Last first quarter, we did $3,900,000,000 I had mentioned that through February we’ve done $3,100,000,000 so obviously significant growth quarter over quarter. That’s attributable to one academy coming on. They started at the February, so that’s additional volume there. But also all of our organic growth that we did throughout the year, that’s going to be the increase in the same store sales as well.

So we are seeing it on both sides and seeing that growth in those numbers is promising for the year.

Derek Summers, Analyst, Jefferies: Got it. Thank you for taking my questions.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my question this afternoon. A couple of things, when we look at the UPB of the retained MSR, it’s been drifting down gradually. I’m just curious where we should think about that stabilizing and sort of tactically what is driving that drift at this point in the

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: cycle? Yes, I mean

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: I think overall

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Go ahead, Amber.

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: We retained about 64%, so that’s slightly lower than what we retained prior quarter, but not significantly. And we continue to release what we’ve always released on like the jumbo and the bonds. And it’s really related to the execution on the service released overall where there’s a pickup if we sell it service released. I think we’re always looking at overall what we’re selling retained, released, cash and execution and finding a balance with profitability and I would I think the thing to look at is just overall we are what’s coming out of our portfolio we are fulfilling and still having growth in our servicing portfolio and that’s ultimately making sure that we have that hedge over on originations in servicing and that’s continuing to grow. So there’s not necessarily a sweet spot that we’re aiming for, but monitoring all of the aspects of the factors that go into making that decision on a day to day basis.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Got it. Yes, I mean, on a sequential basis, it wasn’t down very much, but consistently on a year over year basis, it’s down 13% to 15% and it does seem to be drifting that way. I’m just so just trying to understand that a little bit better.

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Yes. I think it’s just when we’re in this really heavy purchase market and we our purchase market represented 88%, the service released correspondent pricing can be extremely aggressive and we’re always valuing and looking at what do we see that the servicing value to be. And typically when the purchase market subsides a little bit and the refi market picks up, which is a little bit of what we’re seeing right now, the service retained grows a little bit. So naturally if we have we’re in a more of a refinance market, we recapture more on the refi side and it stays retained.

David Nalen, President and Chief Operating Officer, Guild Holdings: Got it. Yes. And this is David here. I would just add quickly on that, that we would like to get back to a more normalized environment where we’re retaining 80% to 85% of what we originate. Certainly, it’s our goal to retain internally so that we can keep that customer for life relationship and that we can continue to serve that customer for their future mortgage financing needs.

But again, market conditions, macro environment play a role in that. And we’re certainly working to make sure that we continue to retain where we can and how much we can going forward.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Got it. And is that consistent with higher employee expenses associated with purchase because it’s a more labor intensive, less efficient transaction. And so that’s part of the offset there, which is the incremental income, cash income is beneficial because you’re paying employees more on a per unit basis?

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: No, not necessarily. I wouldn’t make that connection. I mean I

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: think No, I wouldn’t either.

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: Yes. Got

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: it. Well, that’s it for me. I know there are others in the queue. Thanks guys.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Eric Hagen with BTIG.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hi guys. This is Jake Kasikas on for Eric. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you provide some color on how MSR valuations have responded to the drop in interest rates since year end? And are there any hedges in place that you guys have to potentially support any of the mark to market changes?

Thank you.

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Amber, you want to take that?

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: Yes, I’ll take it. The overall, just a couple of points there. Obviously, as rates drop, we would see a drop in the valuation just naturally. So I can’t speak to actual valuation changes, but just the natural connection there would entail valuation changes. And we do have on rate shock in our K and our SEC filings that you can look at what that could pan out to be in dollar amounts.

Our business model is that it’s our origination and servicing is a natural hedge. And so the origination segment acts as a hedge to the servicing valuation changes.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: All right, great. That’s all for me. Thank you guys.

Conference Operator: Our next question is from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hey, thanks for taking my follow-up. I figured I’d get back in at the end of the queue. I had one thing I did want to sort of work through a technical issue. So when we think about the capitalization of the MSR, can you help us understand on originated MSR, can you help us understand the timing? So when is the MSR valued?

And so for example, is it valued essentially at time of lock or is it and then any changes past that intra quarter are reported through fair value or is it all valued on the last day of the quarter and there are no fair value marks on MSR locked during the quarter?

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Amber, that’s all you

Conference Operator: do. Yes.

Amber Kramer, Chief Financial Officer, Guild Holdings: That’s all me. Thanks Rick for that one. The valuation, in general, the servicing valuation will be included in the fair value at time of lock. So it will be included in gain on sale, but and then follow through the loan into inventory and fair value. And then ultimately when we sell the loan, we would at that time account for the MSR valuation at the end of the month based on the rates at that month, is how the actual accounting works for it.

And so any intra month changes wouldn’t be any valuation changes, only subsequent to sale that you would have any valuation changes running through the MSR adjustments on the servicing side.

Rick Shane, Analyst, JPMorgan: Got it. There was a reason I asked that at the end of the call. Thank you for helping me out with that guys. No problem.

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: You’re welcome.

Conference Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’d like to hand the floor over to Terry Schmidt for any closing comments.

Terry Smith, Chief Executive Officer, Guild Holdings: Thank you again for participating in our call. And I also want to just a big shout out to all of our employees who just helped us with a great year this year this last year. It was, you know, it was a challenge and they all they all abandoned together and grew this company and more to come more to come. So I want to say thank you. Thanks again, everybody.

Conference Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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