Street Calls of the Week
Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) reported its Q2 2025 earnings, revealing a significant miss in earnings per share (EPS) against expectations. The company posted an EPS of -0.84, falling short of the forecasted 1.66, marking a surprise of -150.6%. Despite the revenue slightly exceeding expectations at 2.62 billion RMB versus the forecasted 2.58 billion RMB, the market reacted negatively. In premarket trading, the stock fell by 12.56% to 7.1, reflecting investor concerns over the earnings miss. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels, with strong fundamentals including a healthy current ratio of 2.06 and an impressive Altman Z-Score of 8.08, indicating robust financial stability.
Key Takeaways
- Hello Group reported a significant EPS miss, with a -150.6% surprise.
- Revenue slightly surpassed expectations, reaching 2.62 billion RMB.
- The stock price dropped by 12.56% in premarket trading.
- Domestic revenue declined, while overseas revenue showed strong growth.
- The company is focusing on AI-driven product innovations.
Company Performance
Hello Group’s overall performance in Q2 2025 showed mixed results. The company achieved a total revenue of 2.62 billion RMB, a 3% year-over-year decline but a 4% increase from the previous quarter. Domestic revenue was down by 11% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the Chinese social entertainment market. However, overseas revenue grew by 17.3%, highlighting the potential in international markets.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: 2.62 billion RMB (-3% YoY, +4% QoQ)
- Domestic revenue: 2.18 billion RMB (-11% YoY)
- Overseas revenue: 442 million RMB (+17.3% YoY)
- Non-GAAP net loss: 96.0 million RMB (improved from 449.2 million RMB in Q2 2024)
- Adjusted operating income: 448 million RMB (-6% YoY)
- Operating margin: 17.1%
Earnings vs. Forecast
Hello Group’s EPS of -0.84 was significantly below the forecasted 1.66, resulting in a -150.6% surprise. This miss marks a notable deviation from expectations and contrasts with the company’s historical performance, where earnings typically aligned more closely with forecasts. Revenue, however, slightly exceeded expectations, with a surprise of 1.55%.
Market Reaction
The market reacted swiftly to Hello Group’s earnings announcement. In premarket trading, the company’s stock fell by 12.56%, dropping to 7.1. This decline reflects investor concerns over the substantial EPS miss, despite a slight revenue beat. The stock’s movement is significant compared to its 52-week range, with the current price closer to its low of 5.05 than its high of 9.22.
Outlook & Guidance
Looking ahead, Hello Group forecasts Q3 2025 revenue between 2.59 billion RMB and 2.69 billion RMB. The company anticipates a mid-to-low teens decline in domestic business, while overseas revenue is expected to grow by mid-60s. Continued emphasis on AI and product innovation is central to the company’s strategy moving forward.
Executive Commentary
- Zhang Sichuan, COO, emphasized a balanced growth approach: "We prefer such a kind of prudent model that balances growth and bottom line."
- CEO Tang Yan highlighted AI’s role: "AI can play a substantial supporting role in icebreaking conversations."
- Tang Yan also noted the potential for product enhancement: "Our progress achieved in this area will significantly enhance the product and commercial value."
Risks and Challenges
- Domestic market challenges: Continued macroeconomic pressures in China could impact revenue.
- International expansion risks: Sustaining growth in overseas markets may present logistical and competitive challenges.
- Regulatory changes: Adjustments in withholding tax rates from 5% to 10% could affect profitability.
- Innovation dependency: Heavy reliance on AI and new product launches may not yield expected returns.
- Workforce reduction: The decrease in employee numbers could impact operational efficiency.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts raised questions about the sustainability of overseas business growth and the company’s AI strategy. Executives addressed tax compliance challenges and clarified the impact of the withholding tax rate change from 5% to 10%.
Full transcript - Hello Group Inc (MOMO) Q2 2025:
Zhang Sichuan, COO, Hello Group Inc.: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the second quarter 2025 Hello Group Inc. earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you’ll need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Ms. Ashley Jing. Thank you. Please go ahead, ma’am.
Ashley Jing, Investor Relations, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you. Good morning and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Hello Group Inc.’s second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. The company’s results were released earlier today and are available on the company’s IR website. On the call today are Mr. Tang Yan, CEO of the company, Ms. Zhang Sichuan, COO of the company, and Ms. Peng Hui, CFO of the company. They will discuss the company’s business operations and highlights, as well as the financials and guidance. They will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements are based on management’s current expectations on current market and operating conditions and relate to events that involve known or unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the company’s control, which may cause the company’s actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Further information regarding this and other risks, uncertainties, and factors is included in the company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required under law. I will now pass the call over to our COO, Ms. Zhang Sichuan. Ms. Zhang, please.
Zhang Sichuan, COO, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you, Ashley. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. In Q2, both our domestic and overseas business continued to have positive trends that began at the start of the year, achieving good results across various operational and financial metrics. Next, I will give you an update on the execution of our strategic goals. Starting with the financial performance for Q2 2025, total group revenue was RMB 2.62 billion, down 3% year-over-year. Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.18 billion, down 11% year-over-year, while overseas business was RMB 442 million, up 17.3% year-over-year. Adjusted operating income was RMB 448 million, down 6% from Q2 last year, with a margin of 17%. Our key priorities for 2025 include the following. For MoMo, the goal is to maintain the productivity of this cash cow business with a healthy social ecosystem.
For Tang Tang, the goal is to maintain and improve its core dating experience and build an efficient business model that drives profitable growth. For the new endeavors, our goal is to continue deepening our presence in overseas markets, enriching our brand portfolio, and building a long-term growth engine. In the first half of 2025, our domestic business gradually stabilized, with both revenue and profit exceeding our initial expectations. For overseas business, we continue to drive rapid revenue growth with controllable costs and expenses. Now, let me walk you through the details. First, on MoMo app, all product and user acquisition efforts were focused around the goal of ensuring the productivity of the cash cow business. On the product side, the focus was to enhance user track experience to ensure long-term stable ability through a healthy social ecosystem.
In Q2, we fully rolled out the in-house developed AI greeting feature, which helps male users to generate personalized greetings, driving the reply rate up by a high single-digit %, building our use of AI to enhance icebreaking chat experience. We have also been testing an AI chat assistant feature, which provides content suggestions for male users during the ongoing conversation. This feature drives an increase in the number of multi-round conversations and rate of in-depth chats, thereby improving retention and playing a positive role in stabilizing MoMo’s user base. On the user acquisition front, we further refined our approach based on ROI and reduced the budget of inefficient channels. We also optimized acquisition materials for high Apple users and drove sequential growth in Apple by enhancing the onboarding experience for paying features among users from these channels.
The reduction in unit acquisition costs, combined with the app growth, drove further improvement in ROI, which had already achieved a target greater than 100% in Q1. The overall user retention remained stable despite increased channel investment, thanks to the improved user experience driven by product enhancement and algorithm optimization, as well as the ability to accommodate channel users more effectively. In Q2, MoMo app had 3.5 million paying users, a sequential decrease of 0.6 million due to our ongoing efforts to cut user acquisition investment with negative ROI. Since the ultra-low paying users that we proactively abandoned make very limited contributions to the top line, the absence of this group has had a very minimal negative impact on revenue. Instead, their absence contributed to an improvement in profitability.
We believe that the current user acquisition environment in China has fundamentally changed from the pre-pandemic period, and our user acquisition strategy has also evolved to achieve ongoing improvement in ROI. I believe that both MoMo and Tang Tang still have room for continuous improvement in this area. Now, on the productivity of the cash of MoMo cash cow business. In Q2, MoMo value-added service revenue reached RMB 1.85 billion, down 11% year-over-year. The decline was mainly due to the soft spending sentiment among high paying users, particularly in live streaming experience amid the weak microenvironment. In light of this, we increased operational efforts in chat room experience, which is popular among mid-cohort users. We adjusted the common recommendation algorithm to enhance penetration rates and user scale of the audio and video-based experiences, thereby stimulating consumption enthusiasm among mid-cohort users.
After the seasonal load in Q2, we organized non-bonus-driven competition events in live streaming and increased the exposure rate of high-quality broadcasters to high paying users in our algorithm. On the product side, we introduced new interactive gifts that better facilitate relationship building and paying conversion between users and broadcasters. With the joint efforts of our algorithm and product, we enhanced our traffic monetization efficiency, coupled with our seasonal recovery. Buzz revenue increased 4% from last quarter. Turning to Tang Tang, in order to maintain profitability amidst revenue pressure, we continue our strategy of reducing channel investment in Q2. A plan initiated at the start of the year with a target ROI of over 100%, we further scaled back the budget for underperforming channels. This decrease in channel traffic puts some pressure on the overall user scale.
However, organic users’ growth showed a positive trend since the beginning of the year and increased steadily quarter over quarter, which partially offset the decline in user numbers caused by the reduction in marketing spend. In June, Tang Tang’s MAU reached 10.2 million, down 5% from last quarter. As of the end of Q2, Tang Tang had 720,000 paying users, a decrease of 80,000 from Q1. In addition to a decrease in MAU, another reason for the decline in paying users is the short-term pressure on the paying conversion caused by the improvements in user experience associated with the product upgrade. Following the full-scale rollout of the pilot project, there was a slight quarter over quarter decrease in paying ratio. Turning to Tang Tang’s financials, revenue from the onshore business in Q2 was RMB 116 million, down 18% year-over-year and 4% quarter over quarter.
The revenue decrease was due to a decline in the number of paying users, but RP pool increased 18% year-over-year and 8% quarter over quarter, which partially inhibited the pressure on revenue. At the product level, to explore dating experiences suitable for Asian, we launched product upgrades from last year. Our key efforts included, first, strengthening real user verification to enhance user authenticity and brand trust. Number two, we focus on the core dating experience by simplifying the UI layout to focus on key information while downplaying non-core dating features such as feeds and group chat. The improvement in user experience had a certain negative impact on paying ratio and user retention. The upgraded version was fully rolled out in Q2, and currently we are mitigating the negative impact of the new version on user matrix and monetization through continuous product fine-tuning.
On user acquisition, our goal was to achieve 100% ROI, including personnel costs, and to eliminate budgets from the underperforming channels. The unit acquisition costs narrowed significantly, and Apple rose slightly compared to last quarter. In Q2, ROI remained stable at a level far exceeding 100%. The improvement in organic traffic and in the channel ROI has led to a significant year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth in Tang Tang’s profitability. In terms of monetization, we mitigated the impact of the product upgrade on paying ratio by restructuring the membership package and refining the operations of core cities and user groups. The differentiated product design and pricing schemes have driven a continuous increase in RP pool, resulting in a revenue decline that is significantly smaller than the decrease in the number of paying users.
Lastly, on the overseas business, in Q2, overseas revenue reached RMB 442 million, up 17.3% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter. The overseas revenue accounted for 17% of the group revenue compared to 10% in the same period last year. In Q2, overseas revenue maintained its rapid growth momentum, driven by the audio and video-based social product in the MENA region. For Suzhou, product optimization to the core chat room experience boosted both the paying conversion ratio and the paying user count, thereby driving sequential revenue growth from a high base. For YahaLand and Amar, their local teams drove growth in both the number of paying users and RP pool by continuously optimizing product features and strictly adhering to a paying user-oriented acquisition strategy. We initially expected the overseas revenue could have grown even faster with more aggressive marketing expansion. We decided to be more prudent due to the following reason.
Number one, during Suzhou’s expansion to an affluent Gulf region, we felt the need for a better segmentation among different user groups. Therefore, we are currently trying to penetrate the market with a standalone app, which might take a bit more time. Number two, we noticed that the unit acquisition cost increased a bit too fast as we increased channel investment in two new apps. Therefore, we decided to move a bit slowly on the marketing expansion plan, focusing on improving Apple and optimizing acquisition costs first. We will increase our channel investment again once ROI reaches a satisfactory level. We prefer such a kind of prudent model that balances growth and bottom line because it prevents the group from entering an awkward situation where the rapid top-line expansion is achieved through bottom-line sacrifice.
It’s worth mentioning that our overseas business is not limited to audio and video-based social products in the MENA market. Another key focus of our overseas business lies in the dating market across the developed countries. Currently, the overseas dating product led by our Singapore team already contributes a double-digit % of our total overseas revenue, primarily driven by Tang Tang International. After taking over last year, the Singapore team reevaluated the brand positioning and product strategy for overseas Chinese and other Asian country users. Tang Tang International shifted from balancing entertainment and dating to focusing on the core dating experience. Based on this, we have reshaped the product and branding. After one year’s effort, Tang Tang International revenue has now stabilized. Moving forward, we will focus on dating and seek growth opportunities in the overseas Chinese community and the Southeast Asian market.
We plan to take Tang Tang International as a pilot project to deepen our presence in our overseas dating field, providing users with a more dating brand that facilitates the discovery of romantic relationships and effectively establishes connections from online to offline. This concludes my remarks. Now, let me pass the call over to Cathy for the financial review. Cathy, please.
Peng Hui, CFO, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you, Dick. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Now, let me take you through the financial review. Total revenue for the second quarter 2025 was RMB 2.62 billion, down 3% year-over-year, but up 4% quarter over quarter. Non-GAAP net loss was RMB 96.0 million compared to RMB 449.2 million from the same period of 2024. In the second quarter, we accrued an additional amount of withholding income tax of RMB 547.9 million associated with profits generated by our royalty in China for prior periods. I will elaborate on this accounting treatment later. This tax expense item is one-off in nature and did not reflect the normal business operation of the current and future periods. Excluding this special item, non-GAAP net income for the quarter would have been RMB 451.9 million, up 1% from Q2 last year and 12% from last quarter.
Looking into the key revenue items for Q2, total revenue from value-added services for the second quarter of 2025 was RMB 2.58 billion, down 3% year-over-year, but up 4% quarter on quarter. On a user geography basis, PRC Mainland VAS revenue was RMB 2.14 billion, down 11% year-over-year, but up 3% quarter over quarter. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to soft consumer sentiment stemming from the macro factors, which put pressure on MoMo business, and to a lesser degree, a decline in Tang Tang paying users. The sequential increase was primarily driven by the recovery from Q1 seasonal weakness. VAS overseas revenue came in at RMB 440.7 million, up 73% year-over-year and 7% quarter over quarter. The year-over-year and sequential growth was mainly driven by the rapid expansion from multiple social entertainment and dating brands across our rich portfolio.
Turning to costs and expenses, non-GAAP cost of revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was RMB 1.60 billion compared to RMB 1.59 billion for the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 38.8%, down 2 percentage points from the year-ago period. The year-over-year decrease was due to three factors. Number one, an elevated payout ratio driven by structural revenue shift towards overseas markets, which have a higher payout ratio, especially during fast expansion phases. Number two, workforce optimization leading to one-off severance payments. Number three, payment channel costs and structure infrastructure expenses accounted for a larger revenue proportion due to geographic niche, tilting toward international operations, where fee structures are systematically higher compared to domestic business. Non-GAAP R&D expenses for the second quarter were RMB 172.0 million compared to RMB 179.7 million for the same period last year, representing a 4% decrease year-over-year.
The decrease was attributed to personnel optimization. Non-GAAP R&D expenses remained stable at 7% of revenue, consistent with the figure from the previous year. We ended the quarter with 1,268 total employees compared to 1,364 from a year ago. The R&D personnel as a percentage of total employees for the group was 58% compared with 62% from Q2 last year. Non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses for the second quarter were RMB 339.7 million compared to RMB 360.6 million for the same period last year, both representing 13% of total revenue. The year-over-year decrease in sales and marketing expenses was attributable to the ongoing cost control strategy for the PRC Mainland businesses, where both MoMo and Tang Tang narrowed their marketing spend. This decrease was partially offset by the increase in channel investment for the overseas apps.
Non-GAAP G&A expenses were RMB 67.5 million for the second quarter compared to RMB 89.5 million for the same quarter last year, both representing 3% of total revenue. Non-GAAP operating income was RMB 447.7 million with a margin of 17.1% compared with RMB 476.5 million with a margin of 17.7% from the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of total revenue were 22%, a decrease from 23% from Q2 2024. Now, on income tax expenses, total income tax expenses were RMB 638 million for the quarter.
In Q2, the company accrued withholding income tax of RMB 578 million, of which RMB 547.9 million was a special item, a special non-recurring item related to prior periods, namely that in the second quarter of 2025, we accrued an additional withholding tax of RMB 547.9 million related to dividends paid or payable by our royalty in Mainland China to its offshore parent company in Hong Kong. This accrual followed a notice received by our royalty, MoMo Beijing, from the Chinese tax authorities requiring it to withhold tax at the standard rate of 10% instead of the previously applied preferential rate of 5%. While the company continues to believe our initial assessment was reasonable, we note the authorities’ most recent interpretation and position and have complied accordingly.
Among the total amount accrued, RMB 356.1 million was related to dividends paid by our royalty in 2024 and in the first half of 2025, and this amount has been paid in September 2025. The remaining RMB 191.8 million was the additional 5% withholding tax accrued for the undistributed retained earnings of MoMo Beijing as of March 31, 2025. From Q2 2025 onwards, we will accrue withholding tax rate at 10% for profit generated by our Beijing royalty. Without the withholding tax, our estimated non-GAAP effective tax rate was around 11% in the second quarter. Now, turning to balance sheet and cash flow items. As of June 30, 2025, Hello Group’s cash, cash equivalents, short-term deposits, long-term deposits, and restricted cash totaled RMB 12.39 billion compared to RMB 14.73 billion as of December 31, 2024.
The decrease in cash reserves was largely attributable to the repayment of a RMB 1.76 billion bank loan, including accrued interest in the first half of 2025. Additionally, in Q2, we paid an equivalent of RMB 346 million cash dividends to our shareholders. Net cash provided by operating activities in the second quarter 2025 was RMB 250.1 million. Lastly, on business outlook, we estimated our third quarter revenue to come in the range from RMB 2.59 billion to RMB 2.69 billion, representing a decrease of 3.2% to an increase of 0.6% year-over-year. This is based on the assumption that on a year-over-year basis, PRC Mainland business will decrease mid to low teens, while overseas revenue is expected to grow in mid 60s. Please be mindful that this forecast represents the company’s current and preliminary view on the market and operational conditions, which are subject to changes.
That concluded the prepared portion of today’s discussion. With that, let me turn the call back to Ashley to start Q&A. Ashley, please.
Ashley Jing, Investor Relations, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you. Just before we take the questions, for those who can speak Chinese, please ask your questions in Chinese first, followed by English translation by yourself. Thank you. Oprita, we’re ready to take questions, please.
Speaker 6: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you’re on a speaker phone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Thomas Chong from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Speaker 0: 晚上好, 谢谢管理层接受我的提问。刚才在 prepared remarks 中提到 MoMo 在上半年的财务情况呢, 是好于年初的预期。想请问这个趋势呢, 我们在下半年是否可以延续? 另外的话, 刚刚也是提到不同的 AI 的一些工具, 比方说 AI 的打招呼或者是 AI 的聊天助手以外, 公司在下半年的话, 在 AI 的应用方面呢, 有哪些布局还有想法? Evening, thanks management for taking my question. We have seen MoMo fundamentals in first half came in better than expectations set in early 2023. Can we talk about our second half outlook? On the other hand, we just talked about different AI tools like AI greetings and AI chat assistants. Can we also talk about what are our thoughts and strategy on AI application? Thank you.
Tang Yan, CEO, Hello Group Inc.: situation for MoMo in the second half of the year should be relatively controllable. Industry-wide compliance is also a good thing for the long-term stable development of social entertainment platforms.
Ashley Jing, Investor Relations, Hello Group Inc.: Let me translate this first. MoMo WASP revenue achieved sequential growth in the second quarter, primarily due to seasonal recovery. Additionally, with the relatively stable consumer sentiment and regulatory environment, we took the opportunity to organize a number of non-bonus-oriented competition events. By offering the winners incentives such as training talks abroad or production of hit music videos instead of simply cash rewards, we stimulated broadcasters’ participation in these competition events at a relatively low cost. Whether this trend can be sustained in the second half of the year largely depends on the overall consumer sentiment as well as the enthusiasm of agency and broadcasters. Regarding consumer sentiment, we currently do not see any significant deterioration, but it feels relatively fragile overall. On the other hand, due to some new tax regulations, agents and broadcasters may be affected in the second half of the year.
Internally, we are adjusting our operational policies to address this issue. The main goal of our policy adjustment is to help the supply side enhance compliance while maintaining the normal and reasonable income and profits. This may put some pressure on the platform’s revenue and gross margin, but our team will strive to mitigate these impacts through improved product operations. Currently, MoMo’s overall revenue and profit in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively controllable. Moreover, tax compliance across the entire industry is also a good thing for the long-term stability of the social entertainment platforms. 还有一个是关于 AI 的问题。
Tang Yan, CEO, Hello Group Inc.: OK, 第二个问题是关于 AI 在社交领域的应用，集团从 2024 年开始在这个方面做了很多探索和创新，也有很多布局和投入。目前应用层主要涉及几个方面，一是在已有的社交产品中引入 AI 来提升用户体验。中国用户普遍不擅长破冰聊天，这对建立新关系并保持持续互动造成了比较大的障碍，也是我们从产品运营上一直试图解决的用户痛点。AI 在这方面却能起到非常大的辅助作用。MoMo 之前在 AI 破冰方面的产品实现就很好的印证了这一点。我们觉得 AI 在聊天引导以及提供一些其他类似的辅助功能方面都可以有更加广泛的应用。除了既有应用以外，我们最近也在日本发布了一款独立的 AI 角色聊天应用，用户可以挑选自己喜欢的 IP 和故事主线来进行聊天和角色扮演。目前该款应用在日本的发展前景良好，我们已经开始进行初步的商业化尝试。除了这些应用层面的探索，我们在底层技术和基础设施方面也有相当大的投入。由于市场上没有现成的针对社交领域的 AI 垂类模型，因此集团组建了专门的大模型的应用团队，并不断加大投入力度。基于 MoMo 的语料库，对如何利用 AI 更好地帮助用户更高效地建立并维护关系进行了深入的研究和模型训练。这方面取得的进展将为 MoMo、Tang Tang 以及海外诸多新的社交项目贡献巨大的产品和商业化价值。
Ashley Jing, Investor Relations, Hello Group Inc.: OK, let me translate this. The second question is about the application of AI in the social field. Since 2022, the group has done a lot of explorations and innovations in this area with significant strategic deployment and efforts. At the application level, it mainly involves several aspects. Firstly, we are integrating AI into existing social products to enhance user experience. Chinese users generally struggle with icebreaking conversations, which poses a significant barrier to building new connections and maintaining ongoing interactions. This has been a key user pain point we have sought to address through product operations. AI, however, can play a substantial supporting role in this area. MoMo’s previous product practice in AI-assisted icebreaking has served as strong evidence of this. We believe AI has broad application potential in this area, such as offering chat advice and providing other similar assistance functions.
In addition to existing applications, we have recently launched a standalone AI character role-playing chat app in Japan. Users can choose their preferable IPs and storylines to engage in chats and role-playing. This app is currently doing very well in the Japanese market, and we have initiated preliminary monetization efforts. Beyond these application-level explorations, we have also made significant efforts in underlying technology and infrastructure since there are no off-the-shelf AI vertical models tailored for the social sector available on the market. Our group has set up a dedicated team for large model applications and continuously invested resources in this area. Based on MoMo’s corpus, we are conducting in-depth research and model training on how to leverage AI to better help users build and maintain new connections more efficiently.
Our progress achieved in this area will significantly enhance the product and the commercial value to MoMo, Tang Tang, and many of our new social products in the overseas markets. Thomas, I think that’s the answer to your question. Oprita, we’re ready for the next question.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question comes from Leo Chiang from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: 晚上好, 谢谢管理层接受我的提问。我的问题是关于 Tang Tang 的。稍早管理层在介绍 Tang Tang 产品举措的时候有提到, 团队正在通过重构会员体系, 精细化运营核心层次和用户群体来缓解改版对付费率造成的影响。能否请管理层具体介绍一下产品上都做了哪些尝试? I’ll translate myself. Thank you, management, for taking my question. Management mentioned in the prepared remark that the company has taken measures to restructure the membership package and refine the operations of core cities and user groups to mitigate the impact of the product upgrade on paying ratios. Can management elaborate more details on what measures you have taken? Thank you.
Zhang Sichuan, COO, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you. I will take this. The recent Tang Tang product upgrade has led to an increase in the number of users completing real-person verification, and profile pages now show more comprehensive information. User feedback shows that it feels like they can see more real people on Tang Tang. However, this improvement has resulted in users websaving less, which has put some pressure on revenue. To address this in Q2, we adopted a user classification approach. Specifically, we group users based on whether they have complete real-person verification, engagement level, paying history, and factors such as appearance. For different user groups, we implemented tailored exposure strategy and monetization approaches. For example, for users with high paying potential, we moderately adjusted their matching rate and paywall design to improve their paying conversion and RP pool.
Additionally, we divided domestic cities into several tiers based on user engagement level and regional consumption capacity. We developed suitable membership packages and pricing plans. Our goal is to maximize revenue either by increasing the paying ratio to grow the number of paying users or by boosting RP pool to drive revenue growth. In terms of UI design, we focus on core dating features by streamlining the previously cluttered images and text information on the homepage. We now highlight the key information such as age, online status, and distance. The revenue pressure caused by the product upgrade was fully evaluated in Q2. Recent product and algorithm adjustments have gradually mitigated the negative impact of the upgrade on the revenue. Therefore, it’s worth noting that the improved user experience has helped drive organic user growth and boost user retention.
Previously, the vast majority of new users on Tang Tang were acquired through paid marketing channels. However, since the start of this year, the number of organic users has been steadily increasing. In Q2, the number of new organic users significantly bypassed the acquired through channels. We believe the enhanced user experience provided by the product upgrade has established a solid foundation for recovering our users’ weight and revenue following a reduction in channel investment. Yes, that’s it for the answers. Oprita, ready for the next question, please.
Speaker 6: Thank you. Your next question comes from Jiayuan from UBS. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: 晚上好, 谢谢管理层的提问机会。那我的问题是关于我们的海外业务进展的。其实我们海外收入其实已经连续两个季度实现同比70%以上的增长了。那想请问一下, 这样高度的一个收入增长未来是否是可以持续的? 以及说我们下半年我们对于海外这块收入的预期是怎么样子的? 啊, 那谢谢。 I’ve seen overseas revenue grow by over 70% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters. Could management please share your views on the sustainability of this strong growth? What are your expectations for the overseas revenue in the second half? Thank you.
Zhang Sichuan, COO, Hello Group Inc.: Thank you for that question. I will take this. To sum up, the rapid growth of the overseas business in the first half of the year, in one line, that is pretty rough across the board. For the social entertainment business, Suzhou has maintained steady growth momentum. The accelerated growth in the first half of the year is mainly driven by continuous breakthrough with Yahala and Amar. Despite the ongoing increase in channel investment, the ROI has constantly met targets, allowing us to achieve revenue growth while improving profitability. This marks our most significant breakthrough since the start of the year. In fact, our social entertainment business could have grown even faster in Q2 and Q3. However, given the strict profit requirements set by the group, aiming for higher growth would sacrifice some profits. We are conscious about this risky growth model at the moment.
In Q2 and Q3, we’ll focus on increasing app pool and optimizing user acquisition costs. Although year-on-year growth may slow slightly, these three apps targeting MENA are still expected to deliver very healthy and robust growth overall. Beyond social entertainment, our overseas dating business has also performed very well this year. This includes the stabilization of Tang Tang International’s overseas operation and other overseas dating products that are managed by our Singapore team. We have also recently completed the acquisition of the dating app brand Happn. Although this scale isn’t large compared to our overall overseas business, this brand has significant untapped potential in terms of user succession in European markets and team capacity capabilities. We believe that this overseas dating brand will become a key growth driver for our international revenue in the future. As for the revenue outlook, I will turn it over to Cathy.
Peng Hui, CFO, Hello Group Inc.: OK. Stig has already given pretty clear and detailed answers about the growth dynamics of our overseas business. Let me try to translate those comments into more quantifiable terms that model builders can work with. First of all, as you can see, in Q1 and Q2, we delivered over 70% overseas growth, which reflects strong momentum across both Suzhou and some of our emerging brands. As Stig mentioned, we could have moved a little bit faster in Q2 in terms of top-line growth. However, we purposely slowed down a bit toward mid-Q2 so we didn’t have to sacrifice profit for faster top-line and market expansion. It was really a decision out of strategic discipline and priority on growth with profit rather than growth at the expense of profit.
For that same reason, in Q3, we expect a temporary moderation, maybe toward a year-over-year growth of around 60% as we deliberately pace marketing spend and focus on improving ROI through optimizing user acquisition costs and enhancing RP pool. That said, non-Suzhou emerging brands as a whole are continuing to accelerate at a triple-digit pace and will become an increasingly important growth driver as the year progresses. This is a good thing for the group because a lot of the new brands are subscription-based with higher margins. As these brands mature, we could see gradual improvement in our overall margin profiles. By Q4, as ROI optimization takes effect and with the contribution from some of the newer brands, we expect overseas growth to reaccelerate again. Hopefully, that answers your question.
Speaker 6: Back to Ashley to take more questions. OK, in the interest of time, maybe let’s just take one last question before we wrap up for today’s conference. Please, Oprita, if we have any. Thank you. Your final question comes from Xueqing Zhang from CICC. Please go ahead.
Speaker 3: 尤其是刚刚 Cathy 在 prepared remarks 里面提到了一些税务问题, 那是否可以分享一些具体的情况? 然后我想投资人也会更关心说这是公司个体的变化, 还是涉及到行业性的一个政策的一个改变? 谢谢。 Thanks, management, for taking my question, and the management just shared the revenue outlook for the second half of this year. I would like to know if there will be any changes in terms of profit margin, in particular regarding the withholding tax issue that Cathy just mentioned in the prepared remarks. Could management share more details? I believe investors are quite concerned about whether this is an issue specific to the company itself or if it is related to changes in industry policies. Thanks.
Peng Hui, CFO, Hello Group Inc.: OK. On margins, it’s hard to separate the discussion on margins from our overall top-line outlook. Here is a recap on how to think about revenue outlook for 2025 at the group level, again, in a more quantifiable way. As Tang Yan mentioned earlier, we expect some pressure on MoMo’s value-added services in the second half, primarily due to recent tightening up in tax scrutiny affecting a lot of our performers and agencies. Of course, macro remains an uncertainty factor here as well. For these reasons, there could be some fluctuations in revenue and gross margins, particularly in Q3 and Q4. That said, we’ve been adjusting our revenue sharing policies to offset part of the impact. The overall effect on top-line should remain pretty manageable.
On the other hand, Tang Tang’s performance, as you can see, has been a positive surprise after the restructuring at the beginning of the year, where we substantially cut down personnel and marketing costs. Despite significantly reducing marketing spend, product improvements and monetization enhancements have kept revenue more resilient than expected. The revenue is stabilizing as we move through the back half of the year. It looks like we’ve achieved a stabilizing revenue trend on top of significant cost savings for Tang Tang, which will give us pretty meaningful improvement in Tang Tang’s profitability compared to last year. Now, moving back to group-level revenue outlook for 2025, we continue to see somewhere around the low teens year-over-year decline for domestic revenue, offset by strong growth in overseas, where we anticipate a year-over-year growth around 70% for the whole year.
Taken together, this implies that group top-line in 2025 could either see a slight downtick from or remain flattish versus 2024. That’s the current view of mine. Turning to margins, on the gross margin line, there are mixed forces that sometimes oppose one another. First, we are slightly raising payout ratios to support domestic agencies, as well as performers, as they adapt to the new tax environment. That could mean a 1% to 2% increase in overall payout on MoMo. Second, as the overseas revenue contribution becomes increasingly meaningful, mix shift across businesses could swing gross margin one way or another, making it difficult to pin down the group-level margin expectations. For example, if the dating brands continue to outperform, margin will improve. However, if some of our newer entertainment brands grow faster, it could shift the margin profile the other way around.
That said, I can give you guys my best estimate at this point. As a reference point, adjusted gross margin was 39% in 2024. Last quarter, we guided for, if I remember correctly, somewhere around 36%, 37% for 2025. Given the recent developments in the live streaming and the value-added services space in China, we now expect 2025 gross margin to land closer to the lower end of that range. That’s for gross margin. Below the gross margin line, R&D will trend lower in absolute dollar terms as we continue to optimize headcount. Sales and marketing will increase low teens % wise, reflecting our investment to drive overseas growth, especially some of the newer applications that we’re launching in the second half, especially in Q4. At the operating margin level, last quarter, we guided for from 13% to maybe 14% on an adjusted basis for 2025.
Our current view is that we will probably land in the lower end of that range, depending on where the top-line ends. Overall, despite some near-term challenges faced by some of our agencies from tax scrutiny, our annual margin profile remains broadly stable and, I believe, aligned with prior guidance as we continue to exercise cost discipline and fund overseas expansions. Now, the big question, moving below the operating profit line, it’s probably worth elaborating a little bit more on the big special tax item for Q2. Basically, here is what happened. Recently, actually toward the end of August, the tax authorities provided an interpretation that we believe represents a new position regarding the applicable withholding tax rate for dividends distributed by our royalty to its Hong Kong parent company, MoMo Hong Kong.
The authorities have determined that the standard 10% rate should apply, rather than the 5% preferential rate under the Mainland China and Hong Kong tax arrangement that we have applied in prior periods. From April 2024 to April 2025, our tax filings with 5% preferential dividend tax rate were subject to multiple routine reviews by the local tax bureau, local tax authority, which raised no objections or concerns at the time. In addition, we believe the practice we previously followed was a common industry approach for companies in similar situations. That’s why we were surprised by the subsequent reassessment of the authorities. While we continue to believe our initial assessment was reasonable, we note that the application of tax laws can involve very complex interpretations. As a reasonable corporate citizen, we have complied with the authority’s latest guidance and have adjusted our accounting accordingly.
As to the question about whether this is industry-wide or specific to Hello Group, from our recent dialogues with the third-party advisors who have been involved all along in this specific matter, as well as the dialogues with the authorities, it’s our belief and our understanding that the latest scrutiny that Hello Group experienced is not unique to us alone. Our original approach was not unique either. Many companies with similar structures have followed the same practice. If so, according to the authorities, there is a possibility that they could face similar scrutiny as well. That’s what I can say at this point. Maybe back to Ashley to wrap up the call.
Ashley Jing, Investor Relations, Hello Group Inc.: I think that comes up. Let’s call it a day. Thank you for joining us today, and we’ll see you next quarter. Oprita, we’re ready to close. Thank you.
Speaker 6: Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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