Earnings call transcript: Hess Midstream beats EPS expectations in Q3 2025

Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analysts’ expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.75, against a forecast of $0.68. Despite a slight miss on revenue, the company demonstrated robust performance indicators. The stock price reacted positively, rising 2.92% in pre-market trading.

Key Takeaways

• EPS of $0.75 exceeded the forecast by 10.29%.
• Revenue slightly missed expectations at $420.9 million.
• Stock price increased by 2.92% in pre-market trading.
• Adjusted EBITDA grew to $321 million from $316 million in Q2.
• Strong operational performance with high gross adjusted EBITDA margin of 80%.

Company Performance

Hess Midstream showed resilience in Q3 2025, with a net income of $176 million, slightly down from $180 million in the previous quarter. The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose to $321 million, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. Despite a minor revenue miss, the company maintained a strong gross adjusted EBITDA margin of 80%, surpassing its target of 75%.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $420.9 million (slightly below forecast)
• EPS: $0.75 (above forecast by 10.29%)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $321 million (up from $316 million in Q2)
• Net Income: $176 million (down from $180 million in Q2)

Earnings vs. Forecast

Hess Midstream’s EPS of $0.75 outperformed the projected $0.68, marking a 10.29% surprise. However, revenue came in slightly below expectations at $420.9 million, missing the forecast of $421.03 million by a marginal 0.03%. This EPS beat is significant compared to previous quarters, indicating strong financial management.

Market Reaction

The company’s stock responded positively to the earnings announcement, rising 2.92% to $33.95 in pre-market trading. This increase aligns with the company’s better-than-expected EPS performance. The stock remains within its 52-week range, highlighting investor confidence despite the revenue miss.

Outlook & Guidance

Hess Midstream maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting net income between $685 million and $695 million and adjusted EBITDA between $1,245 million and $1,255 million. The company anticipates a 5% annual distribution growth through 2027 and expects to release 2026 guidance and 2028 minimum volume commitments (MVCs) in December.

Executive Commentary

Jonathan Stein, CEO, stated, "We expect to maintain oil to plateau and then gas to increase over time." CFO Mike Chadwick emphasized the company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders, stating, "We remain committed to our ongoing strategy, which prioritizes return of capital to shareholders."

Risks and Challenges

• Potential supply chain disruptions could impact future operations.
• Market saturation in the Bakken region could limit growth.
• Macroeconomic pressures, including fluctuating oil prices, pose risks.
• Winter contingencies may affect Q4 throughput volumes.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about gas-to-oil ratios and volume expectations. The management discussed potential capital expenditures for 2026, estimated around $125 million, and Chevron’s strategic approach to operations in the Bakken region.

Full transcript - Hess Midstream Partners LP (HESM) Q3 2025:

Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the third quarter 2025 Hess Midstream conference call. My name is Gigi, and I’ll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations, Hess Midstream: Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in our third quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website, www.HessMidstream.com. Today’s conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the risk factor section of Hess Midstream’s filings with the SEC. Also, on today’s conference call, we may discuss certain GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release. With me today are Jonathan Stein, Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer.

I’ll now turn the call over to Jonathan Stein.

Jonathan Stein, Chief Executive Officer, Hess Midstream: Thanks, Jennifer. Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Today, I have some brief opening comments and will review our operations, and then I’ll hand the call over to Mike to review our financials. In the third quarter, we continued to execute our operational priorities and deliver our financial strategy that prioritizes return of capital to shareholders. We delivered strong operational performance, with gas throughputs increasing from the second quarter despite the impact of localized flooding in August. Third quarter results benefited from an increase in third-party volumes as our customers navigated northern border pipeline maintenance towards the end of the quarter. This provides upside to our results and is a good reminder of the strategic nature of our midstream assets in the Bakken.

We also executed a $100 million share and unit repurchase in the third quarter and increased our distribution by 2.4%, or approximately 10% on an annualized basis per Class A share. That included our targeted 5% annual increase per Class A share and a distribution level increase following a repurchase that retained our total distributed cash on a lower share and unit count. During the quarter, throughput volumes averaged 462 million cubic feet per day for gas processing, 130,000 barrels of oil per day for crude terminaling, and 137,000 barrels of water per day for water gathering. Throughputs increased approximately 3% in gas gathering and processing compared with the second quarter.

We expect fourth quarter volumes to be relatively flat with the third quarter on lower expected third-party volumes, as announced in our September guidance update and to allow for winter weather contingency and planned maintenance at the Little Missouri Ford gas plant. Turning to Hess Midstream’s capital program. In the third quarter, we safely completed and brought online the first of two new compressor stations for the year and expect completion of the second compressor station in the fourth quarter. As announced in September, we have suspended activities on the Kappa gas plant and removed the project from our forward plans. As a result, full year 2025 capital expenditures are now expected to total approximately $270 million.

We remain committed to our ongoing strategy, which prioritizes ongoing return of capital to our shareholders for both excess free cash flow after distributions and leverage capacity relative to our long-term leverage target of three times adjusted EBITDA. As we noted in our recent guidance update, with the removal of the Kappa gas plant from our forward plan, we expect significantly lower capital going forward, providing additional free cash flow to support our return of capital framework. Looking forward, we will release guidance for 2026 and our 2028 MVCs after our budget process concludes in December. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Mike to review our financial performance for the third quarter and guidance for the fourth quarter.

Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer, Hess Midstream: Thanks, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. Today, I’m going to review our results for the third quarter and our financial guidance, and then we will open the call for questions. For the third quarter of 2025, net income was $176 million, compared to $180 million for the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2025 was $321 million, compared to $316 million for the second quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA relative to the second quarter was primarily attributable to the following. Total revenues, excluding pass-through revenues, increased by approximately $7 million, driven by higher third-party gas gathering and processing throughput volumes, resulting in segment revenue changes as follows. Gathering revenues increased by approximately $4 million. Processing revenues increased by approximately $3 million.

Total costs and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, pass-through costs, and net of our proportional share of Little Missouri Ford earnings increased by approximately $2 million, primarily from higher seasonal maintenance and employee costs. That resulted in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2025 of $321 million. Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the third quarter was maintained at approximately 80%, above our 75% target, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage. Third quarter capital expenditures were approximately $80 million, and net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $54 million, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $187 million. We had a drawn balance of $356 million on our revolving credit facility at quarter end. In January, we announced we are targeting annual distribution per Class A share growth of at least 5% through 2027, which is supported by our existing MVCs.

Last week, we announced our third quarter distribution that included our targeted 5% annual growth per Class A share and an additional increase utilizing the excess adjusted free cash flow available for distributions following the $100 million share repurchase completed in the third quarter. Turning to guidance. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect net income to be approximately $170 million-$180 million and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $315 million-$325 million, reflecting scheduled maintenance and lower third-party volumes, as discussed in our September guidance release. We are narrowing our full year guidance for net income to $685 million-$695 million and for adjusted EBITDA to $1,245 million-$1,255 million, implying EBITDA growth of approximately 10% year-on-year at the midpoint of the guidance range.

Consistent with the suspension of the Kappa gas plant and the removal of the project from our forward plans, we now expect capital expenditures of approximately $270 million and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $760 million-$770 million. With distributions per Class A share targeted to grow at least 5% annually from the higher distribution level, we now expect excess adjusted free cash flow of approximately $140 million after fully funding our targeted growing distributions. We expect continued adjusted free cash flow growth through 2027 to support our targeted annual distribution per Class A share growth of at least 5% through 2027 and financial flexibility for incremental return of capital, including potential share repurchases. As Jonathan mentioned, we will release guidance for 2026 and our 2028 MVCs after completing our budget process in December. We remain committed to our ongoing strategy, which prioritizes return of capital to shareholders.

This concludes my remarks. We will be happy to answer any questions. I’ll now turn the call over to the operator.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonnet from JPMorgan Securities.

Hi. Good morning.

Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer, Hess Midstream: Morning.

Good morning.

Thanks for the caller. Just wanted to dive in a little bit more on, I guess, Bakken trends here, and just wondering if you could talk a bit on how GORs are trending over time and how you think that projects going forward at this point impacting your business.

Okay. Sure. As you know, historically, Hess has not had increasing GORs because they’ve had a very active program. Chevron now operating three rigs, certainly has an active program that tends to keep your GORs lower than in a program where you have less rigs and less activity. In general, as we’ve talked about, our expectation is, based on the new guidance that we gave out at three rigs that Chevron is running, we expect to maintain oil to plateau and then gas to increase over time. That basically is driven by GORs because at this point, we’re really at almost full gas capture. Really, the trend in gas is really going to be GOR-driven. With that, that will really continue to drive growth for Hess Midstream over the long term as gas represents 75% of our revenues.

Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then given that backdrop, and not to get too far ahead of ourselves here, I was wondering if you could provide any thoughts into 2028 beyond how MVCs might be shaping up. Expectations there, given Chevron moving to three rigs, as you described there.

Yeah. I’d say we’re going to finish our development planning here with Chevron. We’ll approve our budgets in December, and then we’ll give out guidance, including 2026 guidance, but also our 2024 MVC. So we’ll just wait till then. It’s not too far away.

Got it. Just the last one from me. We’ve seen some volatility in the share price here. Just wondering if you could provide any thoughts, I guess, on the cadence or approach to buybacks in the future.

Yeah. I could talk to that one. I think, as we can see at the moment, our leverage is at three times. We guided in September that we would have flat EBITDA in 2026. We would return to growth in 2027. However, we would have significantly lower CapEx, as Jonathan mentioned. That will be an assist to our free cash flow. We will also be able to have our 5% growth on distributions continue. We feel very comfortable that we will have the financial flexibility through 2027 to continue with our capital repurchase or capital returns policy and any potential share repurchases.

Understood. Thank you. I’ll leave it there.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Irwin from Citi.

Hey. Thanks for the questions. Maybe to start on the CapEx outlook, you’ve talked about kind of expecting significantly lower CapEx over the next couple of years, and I know we’re about to get guidance in a month or two. I think in the past, you put out $125 million as kind of what you view as more of a base level, well-connect run rate going forward. Is that kind of the right way to think about the starting point for 2026, or are there maybe still some additional discrete growth projects in the backlog that we should be looking at next year as well?

Sure. Let me start, and then I’ll hand it over to Mike. I mean, I think in general, as we said, historically, $125 million is our expected ongoing capital. That includes well-connects, as you mentioned, as well as maintaining third parties at about 10% of our volumes. I think certainly we said we’re going to be significantly lower than the original guidance we had of $250 million-$300 million for 2026 and 2027. I think we do have some small growth projects, so we might be slightly above that $125 million, but somewhere between that $125 million and significantly below the $250 million-$300 million. Again, we’ll get guidance coming up here once we complete the business plan, but that gives you at least some kind of a range to think about. Let me turn it over to Mike to see anything you want to add there.

Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer, Hess Midstream: Yeah. No. Thanks, Jonathan. Just like I said just now, I’d just say that the lower capital expenditure that we’re expecting, that will drive and continue growth on our free cash flow. It’ll support financial flexibility for incremental return of capital, and that includes any potential buybacks.

Just to underline that, that already starts next year, right? We had expected, as I had said, $250 million-$300 million previously in 2026. Next year already, we will already see the benefit of that lower capital. While we had talked about EBITDA being relatively flat next year, and again, we will give more details of that in our upcoming guidance, do expect next year to see growth in free cash flow, and that will provide us flexibility for return of capital as early as next year.

Got it. That’s helpful. Maybe just a higher level one, given some of the changes that the sponsor here, and I realize you can’t speak for Chevron, but just wondering if you’d comment on how that relationship has evolved now that you’ve had a few quarters under your belt working with them as your sponsor. More specifically, just any updated thoughts on how Hess Midstream kind of fits within their broader strategy here moving forward and how that maybe feeds into your growth outlook and capital allocation from here.

Sure. I’ll leave the last part to Chevron. In terms of how is it going, we’re working our way through now integration, and it’s gone very well. The new board with the new Chevron board directors has met, obviously, several times, and we’ve approved two distribution increases, to include both our base targeted 5% annual increase, as well as two distribution level increases, one this week following a repurchase. We also approved a share repurchase that we did there in the third quarter. Going really well, really at the board level, continuing to execute on plan. We’re focused on running Hess Midstream safely and efficiently, focused on capital discipline, and continue to execute our capital framework for our shareholders. Also, I would say that as we announced today, we’re underway for the search for our fourth independent board member. Yeah, going very well, working very well with Chevron.

It’s a natural fit for us, and looking forward to continuing.

Got it. Thanks for the time.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just first starting on 2026, you kind of mentioned that it is going to be flat with 2026 EBITDA is going to be flat with 2025. I guess the first question is, why would it be flat if we are seeing rising gas volumes? Is there something there kind of offsetting that? As a follow-up to that, Chevron is reducing the rig count, but I think potentially moving towards longer laterals than what Hess did. Is that kind of baked into that outlook for 2026 and 2027, kind of moving to longer laterals, or would you consider that upside?

Sure. Yeah. I’ll kind of answer both of those together. Really, our early guidance that we gave out recently was really designed to provide a shape for our guidance based on our current expectations. After we complete the business plan process in December, we’ll provide more detailed guidance for 2026. That’s going to include, of course, a range for volumes as well as EBITDA and other financial metrics, as we always do. Of course, that final EBITDA range is going to be a combination of oil and gas volumes, rates, including our inflation escalator, OpEx expectations, and of course, the business plan, development plan that we get from Chevron will incorporate their expectations in terms of increased efficiencies and productivities, including things like logging the laterals, as you said.

I think critically, I think I just want to re-emphasize what I just said earlier there, that we expect continued growth in free cash flow as the capital plan reduces with the removal of the gas plant. Still, under any scenario, expecting that continued growth in free cash flow. Again, we’ll give more details and a range of outcomes when we give out our EBITDA guidance and our annual guidance after the budget’s completed and we finish board approval in December. Mike, anything you want to add onto that?

Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer, Hess Midstream: No. I think you summarized it well, Jonathan, and I think we will obviously provide the updated guidance after the finalization of the plan in December. I think, no, we’ve got a good runway with financial flexibility towards 2027 at the very least, and we’ll update when we get the 2028 MVCs.

Gotcha. No, that’s helpful. I guess based on your recent discussions here with Chevron, they moved to a three-rig program. Are there any indications that they might further reduce the rig activity and go to two rigs? Is that kind of in some of the conversations you’re having? Just conceptually, if that were to happen, should we roughly think about oil maybe declining a bit and gas volumes to be flat with rising GORs? I understand maybe that’s not your base case, but just trying to frame downside risk. Thank you.

Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think let’s just start with the base case. As you said, currently, Chevron’s running four rigs, as they said they expect to release a rig in the fourth quarter. As we’ve said, three rigs, again, oil plateau in 2026, and gas will continue to grow at least 2027. We’ll give again more update when we give out our guidance for 2026 and then our MVC through 2027. I think it’s important to note, Chevron just last week announced and said in their call that their goal is to maintain a plateau at 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the foreseeable future. That model works really well for the Hess Midstream model, where we’re focused on long-term execution. At that level, 200,000 barrels of oil per day, that provides ongoing free cash flow generation and ongoing financial flexibility.

I also would highlight, of course, as we’ve always said, the 5% dividend growth can be delivered even at MVC levels. In terms of our return of capital program, that’s always kind of at the base, and that’s well protected. Above and beyond that, at 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, we expect ongoing free cash flow that can generate incremental financial flexibility beyond that. I don’t want to speculate beyond that, but again, we’ll give more details on our current plan and expectations when we finish our budget and development plan here in December.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of John McKay from Goldman Sachs.

Hey, everyone. Thank you for the time. I want to pick up on that last question a little bit. Can you just—I know you guys go through this every year—but can you just remind us how the 2028 MVCs will be set again effectively? What kind of plan does Chevron kind of need to walk you through? It is just interesting because it is going to be our first time doing it with them. Just curious if that is going to differ at all from the Hess process before.

Yeah. There’s no change to the process. The process is really baked into the commercial agreements that we have now with Chevron. The process is essentially they deliver to us their development plan through the end of the term of the contract. We develop a system plan, which is really the infrastructure required to develop that plan. Then essentially, the MVC is set at 80% of the third year of that development plan. That’s really it. No change. It’s a very mechanical type process. Obviously, we work together to put together that development plan and system plan together with the goal of optimizing the bucket. That’s a win-win and in everyone’s best interest. In terms of the process of the mechanics of setting the MVC, that’s really the process that’s defined in the commercial agreements, and that hasn’t changed at all.

That’s helpful. Maybe just one clarification. I think if we go through what you guys have been talking about before, you guys are pretty comfortable, I think, arguing that the 200 a day run rate that Chevron wants to flow, that can be hit on the three-rig program. The four would have put you, I guess, decently above that. Is that the implication?

Yeah. I think what I would say is, and you could see that in our previous guidance before we updated it. That was based on a four-rig program, and we had growth in both oil and gas. The gas being a function of the oil growth and obviously associated gas, you’re going to have growth in gas plus then just GORs increasing as well. Now under the current plan, you’re really seeing oil plateau and gas continue to grow. Yeah, the implication there is that previously in four rigs, because of the efficiencies and productivities that Hess and now Chevron has been able to achieve, they were able to achieve what they were able to get historically at four rigs. They were able to now get at three rigs. Continuing to run at four rigs would have really taken you above that goal of plateauing at 200,000 BOE per day.

I appreciate the time. Thank you.

Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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