Earnings call transcript: Hillgrove Resources Q3 2025 sees copper production rise

Hillgrove Resources reported its Q3 2025 earnings, highlighting a notable increase in copper production and a reduction in costs. According to InvestingPro data, the company shows promising potential despite current challenges, with analysts expecting both sales and net income growth this year. The company has maintained a stable stock price, despite significant developments in its operations and market conditions, and appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Copper production rose by 8% to 2,808 tonnes.
• All-in sustaining costs decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter.
• The company completed a $28 million capital placement.
• Exploration at Emily Star shows promising copper and gold yields.
• Global copper supply faces pressures due to disruptions in Indonesia.

Company Performance

Hillgrove Resources demonstrated robust operational performance in Q3 2025, with copper production increasing by 8% to 2,808 tonnes. While the company’s financial health score of 1.68 indicates some challenges, with EBITDA at -$0.41M for the last twelve months, the company focused on improving efficiency and reducing costs, resulting in a 10% decrease in gross all-in sustaining costs from the previous quarter. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed financial health metrics and 7 additional key insights about the company’s performance. This operational efficiency aligns with broader industry trends where demand for copper remains strong, driven partly by global supply disruptions.

Financial Highlights

• Copper production: 2,808 tonnes, up 8% quarter-on-quarter.
• Average realized copper price: $14,447 per tonne.
• Gross all-in sustaining costs: Reduced by 10% quarter-on-quarter.
• C1 costs: Improved from $5.24 to $4.69 per pound.
• Capital placement: $28 million at $0.035 per share.

Outlook & Guidance

Hillgrove Resources has set a copper production guidance of 11,000 to 11,500 tonnes for FY2025, with all-in cost guidance between $4.20 and $4.45 per pound. The company anticipates improved sales volumes and unit costs in Q4, driven by ongoing development at the Emily Star site and increased mining rates. With a current ratio of 0.13 and moderate debt levels, the company’s next earnings report, scheduled for November 20, 2025, will be crucial for investors. Get comprehensive analysis and Fair Value estimates with a InvestingPro subscription, including access to the detailed Pro Research Report available for over 1,400 stocks. Additionally, the company plans to ramp up production to a target rate of 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes by June.

Executive Commentary

CEO Bob Fulker emphasized the company’s focus on predictability and cost reduction, stating, "We are building predictability. We are lowering our operating costs and increasing the number of operating levers." CFO Luke highlighted the positive outlook for Q4, saying, "With Nugent stoking underway and inventory available for shipment, we expect improved sales volume and further improvement in unit costs in quarter four."

Risks and Challenges

• Global copper supply disruptions, notably from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, could impact market dynamics.
• The company faces operational risks associated with ramping up production rates.
• Market volatility in copper prices could affect financial performance.
• Potential delays in exploration and development at Emily Star could impact future output.

Hillgrove Resources continues to navigate a complex market environment with strategic operational improvements and a focus on cost efficiency. The company’s steady performance in Q3 2025 positions it well for future growth, despite the challenges posed by global supply disruptions and market volatility.

Full transcript - Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) Q3 2025:

Bob Fulker, CEO/Managing Director: This will allow for improved diamond drilling performance for the top four sub-levels of the Emily Star resource. As exploration and resource drilling continues, we currently have two drill rigs underground. Our plan is to increase to three drill rigs when we have the locations available. We are on track to deliver the 60,000 meters of drilling within the 2025 year as previously announced. There have been some exceptional holes during the quarter. Emily Star’s first hole of 19 meters at 1.9% copper and 0.15 grams per tonne gold, and 5.7 meters at 2.12% copper and 0.36 grams per tonne gold, both in Emily Star, are outstanding. More holes are still being assayed and we’ll release these as soon as we have them.

Emily Star is a key exploration focus for what I expect to be the third mining front to underpin a further increase in our copper and operational outputs. I’ll leave the majority of the financial report to Luke, but a couple of highlights for myself. Gross all-in sustaining costs have reduced by 10%. Despite shipment timing which reduced sold copper, our all-in sustaining cost unit rate actually reduced by 5%. Our realized price lifted to $14,447 per tonne as the lower hedges are filled, and we are increasing exposure to this higher spot price. To close, we’re building predictability. We are lowering our operating costs and increasing the number of operating levers. The operational improvements have continued into October, and we are moving through the pinch zone.

The new ramp-up and the Emily Star potential, combined with the continued operating discipline, are the backbone of our plan to improve profitability and our margins. I’ll now hand it over to Luke, who will take you through the financials.

Luke, CFO: Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. I will now walk you through the financial performance for the quarter. All amounts I refer to are in Australian dollars unless otherwise stated. The quarter showed an improving operating performance. The headline items were copper produced increased 8% to 2,808 tonnes and an average realised price of $14,447 per tonne. Gross all-in sustaining costs reduced 10% compared to quarter two. Year-to-date all-in costs of $4.24 U.S. dollars per pound remained in line with our average guidance of $4.20 to $4.45 U.S. dollars per pound, and completion of a $28 million placement at $0.035 per share to institutional and sophisticated investors. Now moving to the detail. All-in unit cost metrics are calculated on copper payable tonnes sold, which was lower than copper tonnes produced due to timing of shipments, which negatively impacted unit cost metrics.

C1 costs improved to $4.69 from $5.24 per pound quarter on quarter. Most pleasingly, our gross all-in sustaining costs reduced by 10% and all-in costs by 7% against the prior quarter, partly reflecting the realisation of a number of cost reduction initiatives over the last couple of months. Our all-in cost, excluding Nugent, was $7.10 per pound or $4.54 U.S. dollars per pound. Year-to-date, this number is $4.24 U.S. dollars per pound, which is tracking within updated FY2025 guidance of $4.20 to $4.45 U.S. dollars per pound. The average realised price for copper sold during the quarter was $14,447 per tonne, despite delivery into a number of lower priced hedges. The quarter-on-quarter reduction in copper payable tonnes sold from 2,572 to 2,422 tonnes reflects timing only, with unsold concentrate stocks increasing from 502 tonnes to 1,729 tonnes at quarter end.

The copper price continues to strengthen on strong demand, with supply also impacted by the recent mudslide and resulting closure of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is the second biggest copper mine in the world and represents over 3% of global supply. The company’s liquidity, which is made up of mainly cash, receivables, and unsold concentrate, was $15.6 million at 30 September. Post-quarter end, $22.9 million was received from tranche one of the capital raise completed at the end of September. High capital expenditure of $12.2 million for the quarter included $9.6 million on mine development, $1.7 million on exploration, and $0.9 million on other capital projects. A total of $18 million has been spent on the new capital development thus far, with approximately $3 million remaining to be spent.

The company maintains a prudent hedging policy covering roughly 30% of forecast production to protect a proportion of fixed costs against a deterioration in copper price. The company currently has 4,450 tonnes of copper hedged at a weighted average price of $14,413 per tonne for delivery from November 2025 to September 2026. A number of lower price hedges were delivered into during the quarter. A busy quarterly period culminated in the completion of a $28 million placement at $0.035 per share. This was strongly supported by Australian and overseas institutions and sophisticated investors. The placement will be undertaken in two tranches. Tranche one has raised $22.9 million pre-cost, which was received in early October. Tranche two will see an additional $5.1 million pre-cost to be received subject to shareholder approval and an upcoming EGM to be held on November 25.

Now to summarize, we remain on track to deliver FY2025 copper production guidance of 11,000 to 11,500 tonnes. All-in cost guidance, excluding Nugent acceleration CapEx of $4.20 to $4.45 per pound, remains on track. With Nugent stoking underway and inventory available for shipment, we expect improved sales volume and further improvement in unit costs in quarter four. Finally, with the recent capital raise, we are now well-funded to deliver on Nugent and to accelerate Emily Star, which is an exciting time as the operations start to ramp up over the next quarter and deliver stronger cash flow generation. I’ll now hand back to the moderator for questions.

Conference Moderator: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two, and if you’re on a speaker phone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Nick McRusty from Marlis. Please go ahead.

Hey, Bob and Luke. Just a few quick ones from me. Obviously, with the transition to multiple mining fronts at Cavernia, Nugent, and Emily Star, can you talk about how you’re managing the trade-off between increasing mining rates and maintaining overall mine life at the operation?

Bob Fulker, CEO/Managing Director: Thanks, Nick. I’ll try to answer it. If I don’t get it exactly where you’re wanting, just let us know and I’ll go back. The increase from where we were last year at around about 900,000 tonnes for the 2024 calendar year to this year was to ramp up to about 1.4. We’ve ramped up to a 1.5 million tonne rate as of last quarter. That actually is a combination of what we’ve been doing within the Cavernia and the Spitfire regions with increased development as well from ore increases. The opening of Nugent allows us to actually spread the mine out to a second mining front. Emily Star in the future will allow that to become three, but that’s into the future. With that second mining front, we aren’t intending to ramp straight up to 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes.

We’re intending to ramp up to that rate over the next six to seven months so that we can keep our production aligned with our development rates. Development between 600 and 650 meters per month gives us a growth of our stoking areas and allows us to break the decline from the Nugent working area to the Cavernia working area so we can get easy access for trucks and loaders and the drill rigs. Over time, we’ll slowly ramp our production up to that 1.7 to 1.8 rate by June next year or thereabouts.

Thanks for that, Bob. Just to hone on the back of that, you know, obviously with the new ore bodies coming online, are there any implications on the current plant configuration?

Nick, there’s zero that we need to do in the plant. Even at 1.8, we’re only around about 50% of the nameplate capacity or what the plant’s run at before. We’re actually running the plant slower than was run in previous incarnations. We’re running at a rate that gives us a higher recovery and gives us higher residence time so we can get that recovery. As we increase our tonnes, we’ll continue to optimise that for the most profitable and most copper-effective output.

Cool. Just the last one from me. Obviously, there’s a build-up in copper concentrate and treat over the quarter. Could you give us a sense of how much of that has been shipped so far in October, and then to what extent you expect that to unwind by the year end?

Luke, CFO: Yeah, thanks, Nick. Look, that really just was a timing issue. We built stocks, I think, by about 1,200 tonnes at the end of the quarter, which really was sold in October. That would have already been sold. That will continue through the quarter. Yes, I’d expect that to reduce, but it depends on the timing of the shipments towards the year end, but we should see that decrease.

Thanks, guys. I’ll pass it on.

Bob Fulker, CEO/Managing Director: Thanks, Nick.

Conference Moderator: Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one. We’ll pause a moment for any further questions to register. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now hand back to Mr. Fulker for closing remarks.

Bob Fulker, CEO/Managing Director: Thank you, everyone, for listening in today. As we enter the last quarter in our reporting calendar, we’re seeing improvements in all our operating metrics and a reduction in our cash spend. We are seeing the realisation of these improvements being implemented. All the things that we’ve been doing over the last 12 months, we’re actually seeing them come to fruition now. If there are any other questions that people would like to ask as they read the report in full, please don’t hesitate to call Luke or myself. Thank you very much, and I’ll see you next time.

Conference Moderator: That’s concluded our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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