Earnings call transcript: Iren Group Q4 2024 shows steady growth, stock dips

Iren Group reported a 5% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, reaching €268 million, while EBITDA rose to €1,274 million, up €80 million from the previous year. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a Fair financial health score, with a P/E ratio of 17.06. Despite these positive results, the company’s stock price experienced a 14.59% decline in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over increased net financial debt and a higher tax rate. The company’s EPS forecast for the coming years remains modest at $0.23 for FY2025, indicating potential challenges ahead.

Key Takeaways

• Net profit increased by 5% to €268 million.
• EBITDA rose to €1,274 million, an increase of €80 million from 2023.
• Net financial debt increased by €150 million, reaching just under €4.1 billion.
• Pre-market trading saw a 14.59% drop in stock price.
• EPS forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 are at 0.23 USD and 0.26 USD, respectively.

Company Performance

Iren Group demonstrated resilience in Q4 2024, with notable growth in EBITDA and net profit. The company expanded its district heating network and increased its customer base to 2.5 million. With a market capitalization of $944 million and current EBITDA of $42.37 million, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently trading at high EBIT and EBITDA multiples. The rise in net financial debt and an increased tax rate from 26% to 30.2% may have tempered investor enthusiasm. The energy market’s lower prices and expected decrease in hydroelectric production also present challenges. Get access to 7 more exclusive InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive financial analysis through the Pro Research Report.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Not specified in the summary.
• EBITDA: €1,274 million, up €80 million from 2023.
• Net profit: €268 million, a 5% increase.
• Net financial debt: Just under €4.1 billion, up €150 million.
• Tax rate: Increased to 30.2% from 26%.

Market Reaction

Iren Group’s stock price fell by 14.59% in pre-market trading, closing at €7.67, down from €8.98. This decline reflects investor concerns over the company’s rising debt levels and increased tax burden, despite positive earnings growth. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading near its intrinsic value. The stock remains within its 52-week range, with analysts maintaining a bullish consensus recommendation of 1.56 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell).

Outlook & Guidance

The company forecasts its EBITDA for 2025 to be between €1.3-1.4 billion, with planned technical investments of €900 million and financial investments of €500 million. Iren Group aims to achieve synergies of €8-10 million through efficiency improvements and will continue focusing on regulated businesses. The EPS forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 are modest, indicating potential headwinds.

Executive Commentary

Luca del Fabro, Executive Chairman, stated, "We see a growing EBITDA with a range between €1.3-1.4 billion." Giovanni Gazza, CFO, emphasized the company’s focus on electricity grid investments, highlighting, "Our business plan includes a very strong growth of investments on the electricity grid." Del Fabro also noted, "We will keep generating synergies thanks to efficiency improvement processes."

Risks and Challenges

• Rising net financial debt could strain resources and investor confidence.
• Increased tax rate may impact profitability.
• Lower energy market prices could affect revenue.
• Expected decrease in hydroelectric production poses a challenge.
• Strong competition in the retail market may pressure margins.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about potential hydro concession auctions and the company’s hedging strategies for renewable energy. Executives addressed potential asset rotations and M&A opportunities, providing insights into Iren Group’s strategic direction.

Full transcript - Iress Ltd (IRE) Q4 2024:

Giulio, Moderator/Presenter, Iren Group: Good afternoon, everybody.

Thank you very much for joining the conference call. I’m here with Executive Chairman, Luca del Fabro and CFO, Giovanni Gazza. After the presentation, as per usual, we’ll have a Q and A session. And now I’ll hand over immediately to Luca to present the results of the period. Thank you very much Giulio, and good afternoon to all of you.

Thank you very much for joining to the presentation of the 2024 results that were just recently approved by the board. The Irene Group confirms its industrial development path that in 2024 saw growth coming mainly from the networks and the market business combined with M and A activities mainly related to the consolidation of Ciena Ambiente. Together with other factors that we’ll see later, the contribution to EBITDA was more than million, which allowed EBITDA to grow together with other factors by approximately 6.5%. In particular, I would like to summarize the main industrial development projects that were launched in Q4 of twenty twenty four. As anticipated during the last conference call in October, Waste Collection Service Management was activated in 63 municipalities in the province of Asti.

We’ve also participated in capacity market auctions for the delivery year 2026, winning 100% of the capacity offered, which was also confirmed in the auction for 2027. Net financial debt is just under €4,100,000,000 up 150,000,000 from last year. Operating cash flow generation allowed for the full financing of the outlays for technical investments in MA, which totaled almost €950,000,000 and were aligned with the values of 2023. To conclude this first phase, the net profit growth of 5% allow us to propose the next assembly dividend of 12.83 per share with a growth of 8% compared to last year, in line with the dividend policy industrial plan to 02/1930 that were presented last year. Let’s now move on to Page three.

And we are going to check the main ESG results that highlight the group’s progress on the sustainable growth path as outlined in the business plan. These results were supported by sustainable investments at 76% at the end of twenty twenty four. As far as the Greece transition is concerned, we see a reduction of 6% in carbon intensity as a result of the increase in renewable generation, especially hydro, and the decline in gas fired and WTE thermoelectric generation. However, as anticipated in the business plan, we expect carbon intensity to remain stable in the short term. The commitment to maintaining excellence in waste collection in very important territories and the extension of good practices in other areas of development has allowed the group to reach a total of almost 70% of sorted waste collection.

The increase in urban waste managed, plus 6%, and the increased plant capacity allowed us to exceed 1,000,000 tonnes of waste sent to material recovery plants, plus 13%. Moreover, the year just ended, so a progress of Iran’s presence on the territory with the increase of municipalities served by waste collection activities, which exceeded five fifty, following the awarding of the contract to the Korneo Ecological Consortium and that of the province of Asti. In terms of the number of clients, there was an increase in the customer base, plus 5% due to the acquisition of electricity customers. From customers will also enter Irene’s consolidation perimeter, reaching a total of 2,500,000 customers. In addition, the extension of the district heating network continued, exceeding 102,000,000 cubic meters in volume.

There’s also clear quality of service improvement with a further improvement in the satisfaction of our customers who come to our stores. The fact that we are rooted in territory and we are close to the citizens, this is at the basis of Iren’s commercial strategy, which after the twenty twenty four inauguration has come to manage over 1,200 physical contact points between stores and corners and has kept growing in digital commercial relationship with 75% of supply customers using the Irene. You app. Finally, water losses were stable at 31% despite the entry of Aquana into our perimeter, while energy that was saved by customer grew by 30%, thanks to increased sales of renewable electricity, plus 36%, and the purchase of Iron Plus products. Let’s move on to Slide number four.

So the results at Glance for 2024 for the whole year. Let’s take a look at the first financial economic indicators of the period and the trends that were characteristic to it, EBITDA reached EUR $1,274,000,000, an increase of about EUR 80,000,000 compared to 2023. This result is higher than the guidance provided in the last conference call. This is mainly due to the higher profitability of the supply business and the higher hydro volumes. Among the positive elements of the financial year compared to the previous year, I would like to mention a few.

The updating of regulatory parameters in networks and the environment for approximately EUR 100,000,000, confirmation of the high profitability of our customer base with an additional contribution of almost EUR 60,000,000, organic growth in regulated business for continued investments and inorganic growth of EUR 35,000,000, higher hydroelectric production volumes, which reached fourteen fifty seven gigawatt per hour, limiting the drop in generation results to the lower energy prices. The trend in the energy scenario reduced the result for the period by almost €140,000,000 considering all business lines. The combined effect of higher generation volumes and higher margins on the market counterbalanced by lower generation prices led to a result for the energy business that is in line with the results of 2023 confirming the balancing of the integrated managed model. Among negative elements of the period, we can include the lower contribution from energy efficiency projects due to the reduction of activities related to 110% super bonus for residential customers, the result of the environment sector impacted mainly by a drop in the margins of some waste treatment and disposal plans. As a closing comment on EBITDA, I would like to update you on the synergy plan that our company is pursuing.

As outlined in the business plan, during 2024, we have accounted for €8,000,000 in cost savings. EBIT equal to €520,000,000 has grown by 12% due to some extraordinary effects. Group net profit amounted to €268,000,000 increased by 5%. Capital expenditure amounted to $830,000,000 and decreased slightly compared to 2023, mainly due to the completion of work on environmental development plans and lower corporate investments. The net financial debt is below EUR 4,100,000,000.0, while the ratio, the net debt EBITDA ratio stands at 3.2, in line with the trajectory of the business plan.

I will now give the floor to Giovanni for the in-depth discussion of business dynamics. Thank you very much, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you. As usual, we may begin with the company performance analysis from Networks business units starting with Slide number five. 20 eight percent increase in EBITDA equivalent to plus EUR 103,000,000 is mainly attributable to the investments made in previous years, which contributed to an increase in the RAB plus 11% with an impact on revenue constraints of approximately EUR 17,000,000. Number two, the revision of regulatory parameters, which also incorporated the inflation recovery generating a positive effect of, an increase of EUR 77,000,000.

The Integrated Water Service also had a positive impact on the extraordinary recovery on inflation on operating costs in 2023 amounting to EUR 9,000,000 and to the positive contribution of Aquena, a company consolidated starting from June 2023, which accounted for EUR 3,000,000. Expanded investments of EUR $363,000,000 have grown by 2% and focus mainly on improving the efficiency of the integrated water service and improving the service quality of the electricity grid with an increase of 32% respectively. Finally, the increase of 300,000,000 in RAB plus 11% was achieved thanks to the contribution of 50% of the investments made in past years and the remaining 50% for the regulatory revaluation linked to the application of the deflator with approximately 5.5% of weighted average rate applied in 2024. Moving on to the environment BU, Slide number six, we can see growth of 4%, which confirms the recovery of profitability expected in Q4 in the Waste Treatment and Disposal segment. The collection activities reported an increase in EBITDA of EUR 39,000,000, thanks to a full recognition in tariff of the additional costs due to the inflation, to the efficiency achieved in operations and the conclusion of the approval process for a new business plan for services, which include, compared to the previous year, a different accounting of revenues by reclassifying them for treatment to collection activities.

The effect of this reclassification from disposal to collection is worth about €14,000,000 Treatment and disposal activities decreased by million due to three factors that had a negative impact of about million each. Number one, a worsening of the energy scenario with the reduction in revenues on WTE electricity and heat production. Number two, reduced plan availability due partially to plan multiyear maintenance activities and extraordinary failure of the Tureen WTE and the gradual exhaustion of the disposal capacity of some landfills. Number three, higher operating costs together with the non full saturation of the new material recovery treatment plants. Overall, the volumes of waste managed throughout the year have increased by 5%, supported by municipal waste plus 6% and offset by decrease in special waste minus 2%.

And this drop was due to a lower availability of landfills and less brokering activity. Finally, the consolidation of CN Ambiente makes it possible to partially mitigate the shrinking results of the plans with a positive contribution of about EUR 15,000,000. From the perspective of investments, the decrease is attributable to the conclusion of a cycle of investments that led us in recent years to build several waste treatment plants but also to review our sorting system. The Energy business unit during 2024, Slide seven, due to lower energy prices has suffered a little bit and also because of the end of the state super bonus, 110% on renovation work for residential customers. Specifically, we have number one.

So renewable generation volumes grew by 34% due to the effect of increased rainfall with a positive effect on hydroelectric production and also an increase in PV plant capacity in operation, which at the end of twenty twenty four reached two seventeen megawatts. The higher electricity volumes offset the effects compared to the previous year of the drop in energy prices. It is very important to note that the average selling price in 2023 was supported by hedging activities, which was carried out in advance in 2022 and which allowed back then for higher selling the prices than the market prices. The average selling price of renewable generation for 2024 was around €120 per megawatt hour compared to €160 in 2023. The second point, the district heating result decreased by 17,000,000 This decrease is mainly due to the reduction in sales prices, which were affected by the indexing downward in natural gas prices.

This factor led to a reduction in margins despite the growth in volume of plus 8%. This increase is due to the development of the volume served and also to a higher consumption, which was affected by favorable weather conditions. Third point is related to CCGT cogeneration and thermoelectric plants that saw a drop of more than EUR 60,000,000 in margin, mainly due to a narrowing clean spark spread, but also lower volumes due to a reduction in production hours with positive margins. And, MSD market contribution, which is still pretty weak. Four points about energy efficiency.

These activities consolidated the drop of EUR 37,000,000 due to regulatory developments concerning upgrading works related to the Superbonus incentive. This also led to a delay in the start of planned worksites related to the Onlos. We close-up with the slide number eight with the market BU, which consolidates the growth in margins and continues the positive trend of acquiring new customers, especially electrical customers. Our commercial strategy is characterized by maintenance of high quality of our customer base and also in the looking for new high value customers, I. E.

With low churn rate, low unpaid rate, and high profitability with commercial profiles with a high propensity to subscribe to bundled offers of products and services. The portfolio at the end of twenty twenty four consisted of 2,300,000 retail and small business customers. And today, thanks to the consolidation of IJR, we have already reached 2,500,000 customers, with electric customers being more than gas customers. The kind of customer classification is also evident from the volumes sold. The graphs are above right, which show electricity volumes up by 12% and gas volumes down by 7%.

Higher volumes and the growth in the number of customers contributed to the increase in profitability of electricity sales, while gas decreased due to the effect of accounting in Q4 of twenty twenty three of a positive one off of, which accounted for EUR 25,000,000. Net of this nonrecurring item, the business line would have grown by 18% year on year. Finally, the excellent trend in the sale of products and services to retail customers and bundled with commodities continues. In 2024, we have exceeded 400,000 contracts and registered a growth of 7% compared to the previous year. Let’s move on to Slide number nine, and let’s look at the elements that lead from EBITDA to group net profit.

Amortization increased by EUR 55,000,000, of which EUR 43,000,000 were due to investments made and EUR 12,000,000 related to newly consolidated companies. Provisions and write downs account for two extraordinary items. The first is related to the provisioning in the financial year twenty twenty three of forty one million euros to cover the risk from the Sustainitaire decree, which is also known as the extra profits decree. The second is related to the write down in the year 2024 of €9,000,000 due to a fire, which involved a plan for the treatment of plastic from a separated waste collection, making it nonoperational. Also, there was a slight increase in provisions for bed debts due to the increase in receivable arising from the direct billing of citizens for the waste collection service.

This service in the past was carried out by municipalities as well as an increasing effect of Aquain, our company operating in the integrated water cycle. The stabilization of cost of debt to 2.17%, in line with the business plan forecast, was possible thanks to carefully managing liquidity, which also mitigated the impact of higher rates of the two green bonds issued in 2024 compared to the very low rates of the bond maturing in November 2024. Finally, group net profit for the period amounted to €268,000,000 with an increase of 5% year on year growth. There’s an increase in the tax rate, 30.2% compared to 26% of last year. This tax rate was characterized by nontaxability of extraordinary contributions to compensate for the high cost of energy.

There was also an increase in profit with an increase of EUR 8,000,000 compared to 2023. I would like to wrap up with the net financial position, Slide number 10. At the end of 2024, debt increased by EUR 149,000,000 compared to last year. Operating cash flow, which was positively impacted by EBITDA and the release of tax credits from Superbonus amounting to €250,000,000 amounted to €1,000,000,000 and covered both technical investments amounting to EUR $830,000,000 and financial investments amounted to EUR 112,000,000, mainly attributable to the acquisition of the minority stake in EGEA, EUR eighty seven million and the consolidation of Sinambiente, nineteen million. Net working capital increased by €109,000,000 due to the higher tariff receivables not immediately billable in the regulated business for water and environment generated by the regulatory increases for the portion of exceeding the so called tariff cap as well an increase for credits for, received for that were not collected related to investments made under the NRP.

I can now give the floor to Luca for the conclusion of the presentation. Thank you very much. Before the closing remarks, I would like to focus on the recent inorganic growth operation shown on Slide 11, which will characterize the current year. Since January 2025, Eireannes has been consolidated EGIA, owing 52.77% of company shares. The Board of Director resolved to exercise the call option from the 30 to purchase the remaining shares in order to get to 100% of share.

This would allow Arren to strengthen its presence in all businesses, to accelerate industrial development processes and to extend district heating in Alexandria and to optimize governance in order to extract synergy more efficiently and quickly. Up to date, we have already intervened by integrating procurement and energy management functions within the group, and we are also moving on with the coordination and integration of the information system. From the industrial standpoint, EGI generates an increase in total RAB among water servicing gas distribution of more than EUR 100,000,000. 3 hundred thousand inhabitants are served by waste collection, 10 cubic million cubic meters of district heating volumes and almost 200,000 gas and power high volume customers, increasing iron’s presence in the reference territories and in particular in the area of Konea. This is a strategic area between Piedmont and Liguria.

In terms of EBITDA, we expect a contribution in 2025 of about EUR 50,000,000 to EUR 55,000,000. Let’s now take a look on the right of the slide and focusing on the Irene Aqua transaction. In February, Irene strengthened this position as a national player in the water sector by acquiring 40% of Irene Aqua held by F2ISGR through its funds. Thus, moving to full control of the management company of the integrated water cycle of the ATO in Genoa. As per industrial plan, this sector is a priority business area for our development strategy, both for its positioning among the first national operators in the sector and for the opportunities that are related to the very important know how developed in the management of the water system.

Furthermore, the acquisition of 40% minority stake in Iron Aquas allows the company to merge into Irate, simplifying governance, rationalizing operating costs and enabling new investments in our historical territories. From a financial point of view, the transaction had a positive impact in 2025 of EUR 20,000,000 due to the reduction in profit attributable to minorities. Getting now to the closing remarks, Slide 12. We can take a look at our expectations for 2025. We see a growing EBITDA with a range between million and million supported by major investments in regulated businesses as outlined in the industrial plan, the development of collection activities and the recovery of profitability of treatment plants for about million.

In the coming months, we’ll see the completion of the new paper treatment plant and preparatory activities for the construction of the fourth line of two fifty kilotons at the WTE in Turin. Last week, the Piedmont Council approved the construction of the new line and really hope that in the following months, all procedures will be completed from the economic and environmental sustainability point of view. High availability of water in the reservoirs at the beginning of the year supported these results with the expected regulated production between one point three and one point four tonnes of watt per hour and the commissioning of 20 megawatts photovoltaic plant in Noto by the end of the year. Normalization of profitability of customers who, in 2024, are the non repeatable extra marginality of about EUR 20,000,000 in gas sales activities and integration of recently acquired companies together with the continuation of operational streamline activities. Technical investments planned for 2025 will amount to EUR 900,000,000 plus EUR 500,000,000 in financial investments, of which approximately EUR $282,000,000 related to IRENA Aqua and EUR $250,000,000 to the consolidation of EGI, including the related debt.

The net debt EBITDA ratio will be stable, and we expect to get to 3.2 considering the hybrid bond issue. We can now move on to the Q and A session. Thank you very much.

Luca del Fabro, Executive Chairman, Iren Group: Thank you. Question number one comes from Elias Hedgesafares, Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you so much for the presentation. Now my first question is on the content of Slide 12, I mean, the guidance.

Can you please give us some color concerning the gross technical, so M and A outflow? So once again, a million M and A outflow, once again, €500,000,000 because I think this is where we will see, I mean, the exercise of the call option together with the Iran Aqua. But as for Iran Aqua, if I remember exactly, we also had one part of the business foreseen for the next years or so. So this is to understand if you have something more in this section, EUR 500,000,000.0 or is this just water from E REN generated this outflow? So this is my first question.

The second question concerns the guidance for 2025 in terms of EBITDA. I heard what the CEO said in terms of mean and median moving average. So I’d like to know something more about what you expect in the generation business and market business. So what are basically the key drivers that you see for 2025? And what about the effect on the contribution of EBITDA of these two activities?

And what about the benefits of what you named operational efficiencies on a corporate level. Do you think that this could be a significant element to give a contribution to EBITDA in 2025? This is my last question concerning once again the guidance 2025. Can you expand a little bit on the guidance on the rate for the following year? Yes.

This is my first question, M and A. Now as for AJA, the value is million for the call AJA and million of debt, so of net financial position. Irenaca million. Then we have something very small, which is the Irenaca minus million and then a million M and A. But this is not very important.

I mean, the big chunks are the EJAR, SEK75 million and then IRENA 282,500,000.0 and once again SEK75 million. So this is for the first question. As for the guidance of the EBITDA acceleration, I have to say that there’s something which is sure and certain as of today, which is the increase of income from capacity markets. We have already held the auctions and this will turn into plus a EUR 20,000,000 margin. We also have some visibility today on the reduction of prices having to do with the sale of energy from renewables.

The difference should be more or less the EUR 10 versus 2024. There’s another very important element concerning the volumes, I mean, the hydro volumes. 2024, as we’ve said before, was an exceptional unique year. This means we have generated a 1.45 terab of hydroelectricity, And we think that in twenty twenty, twenty five, so this year, our production, so our generation may reach around 1.35 tera. And at the December, we have had quite a high level, I mean, in the catchment areas.

And once again, versus the historical average, I would say, plus 80 gigawatt hours. And as for the femmester credit, which is the other key element, which is really determining in the margin. So once again, as for the clean spark, we have some set size, which are not very good in terms of margin in the second half of the year. But we also think that what is happening is, let’s say, a lower level of importance of the forward versus the delivery. So also on a full year basis, we think we can have a spread, which should be €2 to €3 per megawatt hour.

Now as for the market, as we’ve said before, 2025 is delivering an extraordinary result in terms of the power line, but also in terms of selling gas. But this depends heavily on the extraordinary margin, which is around million. And this is what we made on the gas line and this is what was already included into our accounts starting from Q1. Now as for net profits, now we usually don’t deliver any guidance. Let me just we will at the end of the Q1 accounts.

So I’m sure that there’s a positive impact on the purchase of the minority on the IRRACQUA, so million, but also the purchase of the minorities that we have communicated this morning. So this is EJ once again, and its contribution will be important because it will help us implement this result. Let’s say that the platform that we have created with this extraordinary operations, as Giovanni said before, so ERN, Aqua and EJEA, they may free up further synergies. But of course, this is still to be confirmed. So I think that at the end of Q1, there will be a sort of a general assessment, which is what we usually do.

Now back to our scope, we may think of something like million of synergies in 2025, which is very consistent with million we got in 2024. So this is sort of basically a continuity. So we will keep generating synergies. Thanks to efficiency improvement processes, which is what we have implemented also in the past years. And of course, we will do the same also in 2025.

Thank you. Next question is from Francesco Salazar Zalainebanca. Acaros, please go ahead. I would like to talk about the renewal of the electricity concessions. So any any updates on your side?

So which visibility do you have about this? Are there some assessments going on or even assessments to be done? Because apparently, we will have new suppliers on the market, for example, Ital gas. Last question. Any acquisitions on the extension of the electricity concessions on your side?

So what do you expect and what the impact may be throughout the year? Thank you. Now as for the hydro concessions, what we expect is the first auction on the smallest concession within this year, so end of twenty twenty five. Once again, this is what we expect, but this is not guaranteed for sure. Of course, we will take part into that auction, and we are already working on it.

As for the gas distribution or dispatchment, we will keep doing what we have done so far. So we will keep managing them. We will also monitor possible auctions around us to scavenge for new opportunities. Of course, so what we need is the right price and the right synergy. Otherwise, we won’t take part in the auction.

We would be very opportunistic on gas. As for electricity, so the power, great way the same thing will happen. I mean, if Enel sells networks which are closed or grids close to our territories, we will take this into account. So once again, if we have the right synergies at the right price, of course, we may take this into account. Well, this is not something we are considered today because Enel is not selling these assets.

Can you please repeat the first part of the question because we couldn’t hear you? Yes, of course. The first question was on the hedging policies. So how much did you hedge in 2025? So how much of the production was hedged in 2025 and at oil price?

Thank you. Now the coverage is now 80% of our production of renewable energy. So the total renewable production in terms of hydro plus PV plus waste to energy, this is 2.3 tera. So this is the order of magnitude. So once again, we have already covered 80% and the price is USD105 million to USD110 per megawatt.

Now we have a percentage which is much smaller in terms of coverage on the thermal production. So in this case, the production is 6.7 tera. And as of today, the coverage rate is 30%. The spread is per megawatt. So as we said before, the coverage of the thermal production is a little lower because, of course, we don’t have positive signals for the second half of the year.

So once again, we’re just waiting for the market to stabilize some positive results, and this is what happened in the recent months. As for our customers, we need to cover now the 20 of customers that we have on fixed price. In that case, the coverage rate is 100%. Thank you. Let me remind you that if you want to ask a question or if you want to take part in today’s conference, please press 1.

Once again, press 1 on your phone. Next question is from Eban Whelio Jonas line in Kepler so much for your presentation. I have some questions. So the first one being the following. The question is on the AJS guidance.

So if I’m not mistaken, in our call back in November 2024, I remember I that the contribution was something like 10% higher, so between EUR 55,000,000 and EUR 60,000,000 EBITDA. It was not EUR 50,000,000 to EUR 55,000,000. I had written down EUR 55,000,000 to EUR 60,000,000. So can you give us some color about this? Question number two.

I’m talking about hedging for 2026. As for 2025, my question is, do you have some coverage? I mean, do you have some hedging on 2026 as concerns the production, I mean, of renewable sources or waste to energy? And the third question is the recovery of profitability in terms of waste because you said that in 2025, you should be able, I mean, to have some positive areas, including our recovery of profitability from the waste to energy plants experiencing some problems in the past, plus the operation of new WTA plants. So once again, can you expand on this, plus the specific items on EBITDA of this business unit?

Last but not least, I have final question. So question number four is on the asset rotation. Now in the past, you said that you would dispose of some assets, for example, some minority stakes in the PV, so in the photovoltaic systems or other assets. So can you tell us more about this? So is this still an open possibility?

Thank you. Thank you. As for the AJS guidance, yes, you’re right. I mean, our assessment was between $55,000,000 and $60,000,000 but I have to say that the scope has changed because now we have minus $5,500,000 and of course, this is the delta that you have seen in your question. So this is a consolidation scope of the two companies, including Ambiente, so versus what we had forecasted.

So in other words, we have to say that we still have to make a decision. So we may consolidate the two companies because we may want to transfer them, so to sell them. So this means we may free up some assets. We may also get some capital gains. And for prudential reasons, the EUR 5,500,000.0 are still missing just because we haven’t consolidated these two companies into Ambiente.

So you are correct, but once again, the scope has changed. As for 2026 hedge, we have already started our activities. And well, basically on the, if you will, renewables and percent rate is around 30% of total production. So once again, two point zero tera, and the price is around to per megawatt. Now I have to say that today as for the 2026 market, it’s not very liquid.

So if you have Kalenta based products, well, in that case, we don’t have many opportunities in terms of hedging. No hedging on the thermal because once again, we don’t have any positive spread information, if you will. So as for Ambiente, one part of the Ambiente business is taking into account some reduction of the margin level in 2024 concerning their plans. But we already have a good visibility and a recovery by around EUR 10,000,000 in 2025. And this may also be something like EUR 10,000,000, EUR 20 million, so EUR 10,000,000 plus EUR 10,000,000, totally EUR 20,000,000 in 2026, because I mean the plants’ saturation level will increase, especially of the Forso and Paletti and Vershale plants.

So these two plants will be saturated. Once again, we will have the possibility to increase and then stabilize the margin level of this kind of plants. As for your question on the transfer of the PV or photovoltaic asset that you mentioned in your question, well, I have to say that this population is currently being frozen, if you will, for a very specific reason. And the reason is the regulations on BES. I mean, the batteries are just like FairEx.

So the two regulations are sort of changing. So first of all, we need to know what happens on the FairEx and BES in terms of regulatory framework before considering any possible option because we think that this kind of regulation may trigger positive synergies on our assets. And if so, we may dispose of them, but once we have the right conditions. So for the time being, we’re just sitting there waiting because, of course, we don’t want to reduce the value of these assets. We think they are very valuable assets.

I do agree. May I have a follow-up question on the market division? So you’re talking about the normalization of gas sales. So basically minus the million in 2025 versus 2024 because of this normalization. So my question is, I mean, apart from this normalization on gas, so once again, I’m talking about the unit margins.

I mean, what do you think about the unit margins in 2025 and in 2026? So do you think competition will be back on the market? Or do you think that unit margins per customer won’t change, so they will be satisfactory instead of going down? Okay. So if at all possible, just some color on the margins.

You’re right. I mean, there’s a strong competition on the retail market, but this has an impact on the churn and not on the price for the time being. So once again, no, we do not expect any profitability drops. What we expect is a flat margin levels. Thank you.

Once again, next question is from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you so much for the presentation, and thank you for allowing me to ask questions. I have one question, I mean, sort of a broad wide question, which is capital structure and capital allocation. Now I have the pressure that capital intensity, I mean, all the investments you will have in 2025 as per your guidance, seems to be a little bit smaller than the plan.

Now is this due to M and A? So I mean, all of the commitments that you have to pay for in 2025. And considering this move and going back to power concessions, you may be required, I mean, to pay an upfront fee. So these agreements with a government basis. And you may also have other M and A opportunities.

So which kind of flexibility do you have in your CapEx plan so that the leverage is more or less the one you have in the guidance, which is a 3.2x? So apart from the individual consequences, I mean, what is your broad general strategy and approach considering all the points I have just raised? Question number two is on the waste to energy production, so thermal production. I think you’re considering six to seven tera in 2025, which is sort of flat versus what you’ve been able to generate in 2024. So in terms of the very first data of the beginning of the year, the production seems to be soaring.

So does your guidance also consider these upsides? Or are you only conservative? Or once again, considering your assets portfolio, do you think that this production is sort of normalized? Thank you. Yes.

Now in terms of CA or capital allocation 2025, we do consider less investment on renewables. And I have to say that for X, I have to say that, yes, this has been approved. There will be auctions later in the year. So we don’t think there are major opportunities, I mean, to start in the projects in 2025. We also experienced a drop in terms of environment, so the investments on environment.

What is also very important is another key topic that you have introduced, considering the concession fee that we may have to pay in order to pay for the twenty year long concession. So the estimate is EUR 60,000,000. So this is basically more or less 10% of our RAB. So this is what we think may happen in 2026. But let me tell you something important.

Our business plan, as you know very well, includes a very, very strong growth of investments on the electricity grid. So we will double our RAB in 02/1930. So no, we don’t think there would be any additional need to guarantee the requirement, which is required so as to get the extension of the concession, which means spending more money or continuing investment. You’re right, that we will have a maximum EUR 60,000,000 cash out. But as for the increase of the so called Investimenti, so the investment tax ordinary plan, we are fully covered.

Let me also tell you that we also have some flexible investments, which is what we have represented when we introduced and described our business plan in June, EUR ’1 hundred million a year. Now this means that this can be adjusted. So this is very flexible. At the same time, of course, we need to keep unchanged all of the ratios that we have to comply with. So in terms of FN, EBITDA, but also in terms of ratings.

So once again, we would like to keep a triple A with outlook statement. Thank you so much. Once again, if you want to share your ideas in today’s conference or if you have questions, please We don’t have other questions or any other follow ups, so the floor goes to Giulio Doberman so as to close today’s conference. Please go ahead. Thank you.

Thank you so much for your time. Thank you for your questions and for your attention. So we will see you soon for the next quarterly presentation. Thank you so much once again. Enjoy the rest of the evening.

Bye.

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