Earnings call transcript: Kolibri Global Energy Q2 2025 misses EPS and revenue forecasts

Kolibri anticipates significant production and cash flow increases in Q3-Q4 2025. The company is set to bring nine new wells into production during this period, potentially boosting operational performance. InvestingPro analysis indicates the company is trading at an attractive P/E ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth potential. Unlock comprehensive financial analysis and growth projections with InvestingPro’s advanced tools and exclusive Pro Research Reports. InvestingPro analysis indicates the company is trading at an attractive P/E ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth potential. Unlock comprehensive financial analysis and growth projections with InvestingPro’s advanced tools and exclusive Pro Research Reports. Following the earnings release, Kolibri’s stock price experienced a slight decline, dropping 0.95% to $7.35 in pre-market trading, reflecting investor disappointment. InvestingPro data shows the stock has a beta of 0.36, indicating lower volatility compared to the broader market. The stock’s current trading price suggests it may be slightly overvalued according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis. Get access to detailed valuation metrics and 1,400+ comprehensive Pro Research Reports through an InvestingPro subscription.

Key Takeaways

• Kolibri missed both EPS and revenue forecasts, with significant negative surprises.
• Production increased by 3% year-over-year, but revenue decreased by 22%.
• The company expects substantial production and cash flow growth in the latter half of 2025.
• Kolibri is actively expanding its operations, with new wells planned for Q3-Q4 2025.
• A share buyback program was executed, purchasing 130,000 shares in July 2025.

Company Performance

Kolibri Global Energy reported a mixed performance for Q2 2025. While the company achieved a 3% year-over-year increase in average production to 3,220 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, net revenue decreased by 22% to $10.8 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA also saw a decline of 23% year-over-year. Despite these challenges, year-to-date production increased by 13%, indicating operational growth.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $10.8 million, a 22% decrease year-over-year.
• Earnings per share: $0.08, below the forecast of $0.125.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $7.7 million, a 23% decrease year-over-year.
• Operating expenses: $7.15 per BOE.
• Credit facility borrowing base increased from $50 million to $65 million.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Kolibri’s Q2 2025 EPS of $0.08 fell short of the $0.125 forecast, resulting in a 36% negative surprise. Revenue also missed expectations, coming in at $11.11 million against a projected $14.64 million, a 24.11% miss. This marks a significant deviation from forecasts, impacting investor sentiment.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Kolibri’s stock price dropped 0.95% to $7.35 in pre-market trading. This decline highlights investor concerns regarding the company’s ability to meet financial expectations. The stock remains within its 52-week range, having a high of $13.88 and a low of $3.9, suggesting room for recovery if future performance improves.

Outlook & Guidance

Kolibri anticipates significant production and cash flow increases in Q3-Q4 2025. The company is set to bring nine new wells into production during this period, potentially boosting operational performance. Future guidance projects an EPS of $0.18 for Q3 FY2026 and $0.04 for Q4 FY2026, with revenue forecasts at $566.33 million and $579.21 million, respectively.

Executive Commentary

CEO Wolf Ragener expressed confidence in the company’s growth trajectory, stating, "We’re looking to continue the success we’ve had over the last few years." CFO Gary Jocelyn highlighted the increased borrowing base, saying, "The continuing increase in our borrowing base gives us more flexibility managing our working capital." Jocelyn also emphasized expected growth, noting, "We anticipate significant increases in both production and cash flow in the last two quarters of the year."

Risks and Challenges

• Fluctuating oil prices could impact revenue and profitability.
• Execution risks associated with bringing new wells online.
• Potential for increased operational costs affecting margins.
• Market volatility impacting stock performance.
• Dependence on successful capital allocation to drive growth.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about production guidance stability, capital allocation plans, and the liquids content of the Laveena wells. They also sought clarity on future drilling plans, reflecting concerns about operational execution and strategic direction.

Full transcript - Kolibri Global Energy Inc (KEI) Q2 2025:

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: Good day, and welcome to the Colibri Global Energy’s Second Quarter twenty twenty five Financials Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Media may monitor this call in a listen only mode. They are free to quote any member of management, but are asked to not quote remarks from any other participant without that participant’s permission. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Please note that this event is being recorded. I advise participants that this conference is being recorded today, 08/11/2025. This call will be available on the company’s website at www.colivrienergy.com. Here is a disclaimer. This call may include forward looking information regarding Colibri’s strategic plans, anticipated production, capital expenditures, exit rates and cash flows, reserves and other estimates and forecasts.

Forward looking information is subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results will vary from the forward looking statements. This call may include future oriented financial information and other financial outlook information, which Colibri discloses in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on Colibri’s potential future operations, and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. For a description of the assumptions on which such forward looking statements is based and the applicable risks and uncertainties and Colibri’s policy for updating such statements, we direct you to Colibri’s most recent annual information form and management’s discussion and analysis for the period under discussion as well as Calibri’s most recent corporate presentation, all of which are available on Calibri’s website. Listeners should not place undue reliance on forward looking information. Calibri undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking future oriented financial or financial outlook information other than as required by applicable law.

I would now like to turn the call over to mister Wolf Ragener, the President and CEO of Colibri Global Energy Inc. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Nick, and thank you everyone for joining us today. With me on today’s call is Gary Jocelyn, our chief financial officer. As I’m sure you’re all aware, we released our second quarter twenty twenty five results this morning, and we’re very pleased with what we’ve achieved this quarter, which continues to build on our last few years result in multiple ways.

Production from the field has been going very well, but our second quarter over 3,200 BOE a day in spite of us temporarily shutting in about 540 BOE per day of wells for the Laveena well completions. Our operating expenses remain low with just over $7 at $7.15 of BOE. We increased our line of credit so that we have with our banking syndicates led by Bank of Oklahoma. Further in the field, we have brought on the four Lovina wells that have shown a very high oil percentage and are still cleaning up fracture stimulation fluid, and we’ll be testing the fullness of the well over the coming weeks. And we’re spudding two new wells, the barn 6 Dash 31 Dash 2 h and three h.

So, basically, it’s full speed ahead with operations. Things are going very well, and we’re looking forward to increasing our production further this year. Now with that, I’ll turn the call over to Gary to discuss our financial results. Alright. Thanks, Wolf, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call.

I’m going to go over a few highlights of the second quarter and your state results, and then you can take questions at the end of the call. All amounts are in US dollars unless otherwise stated. I’ll start by going over the second quarter results. Average production was up 3% to 3,220 BOE per day compared to 3,128 in the prior year quarter. The increase is due to production from the wells that were drilled and completed in in the last six months of 2024.

The increase was partially offset by several wells that were shut in during Lovina completion operations, which temporarily reduced production in the quarter by 540 BOE per day. All these wells are now back on production, although some of them are now dewatering. Net revenue decreased 22% to 10,800,000.0 compared to the prior year quarter due to a 24% decrease in average prices and lower oil production from the shut in wells. G and A expense decreased by 9% during the quarter to 1,400,000.0 due to lower accounting and auditing fees compared to the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was 7,700,000.0 compared to 10,000,000 in the prior year quarter, which was a decrease of 23% due to lower prices.

Net income was 2,900,000.0 and basic EPS was $08 per share in the second quarter twenty five compared to 4,100,000.0 or 11¢ per basic share in the prior year second quarter. The decrease was due to a lower revenue in the quarter. Our net back from operations decreased to $29.66 per BOE compared to $40.40 in the prior year quarter. This was due to lower average prices for the quarter, which were partially offset by lower operating expenses per BOE due to adjustments true adjustment true ups in the prior year quarter and lower water hauling costs. Moving on to the year to date June results.

Average production for the year to date June was up 13% to 3,646 BOE per day compared to 3,216 in the prior year period. The increase was due to production from the wells that were drilled during the last six months of last year. And again, this was partially offset by production loss from the seven wells during the quarter. Net revenue decreased slightly by 3% to $27,200,000 compared to $28,100,000 due to a 14% decrease in average prices, partially offset by the increase in production. Net income was $8,600,000 and basic EPS was $0.24 per share compared to $7,400,000 and $0.21 per basic share in the prior year period.

The increase was due to lower operating and interest expense and realized and unrealized gains on a commodity contract in 2025, partially offset by the lower revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was $20,500,000 compared to $20,400,000 in the prior year quarter as lower operating expenses and lower realized losses on commodity contracts were offset by the lower revenues. Net back from operations decreased 14% to thirty four zero five per BOE compared to thirty nine sixty six in the prior year period. This was due to lower average price lower average prices, partially offset by by lower operating expenses per BOE. And I also wanted to add, as we’ve mentioned, that our credit facility was redetermined in the second quarter, and our borrowing base was increased by 30% from 50,000,000 to 65,000,000.

The continuing increase in our borrowing base gives us more flexibility managing our working capital going forward and also demonstrates the growing value of the field. And as we discussed in the earnings release, we will have nine new wells that will start production in the second half of the year. We anticipate significant increases in both production and cash flow in the last two quarters of the year. And with that, I’ll hand it back to Wolf. Thanks, Gary.

As Gary laid out, we had a solid second quarter. And while our oil prices were lower during the quarter, we still performed very well and looking to continue the success we’ve had over the last few years. Company has had quite the growth, and with the activity going on, we’re looking to continue that. As Gary said, bringing on nine wells in the second half of the year is expected to make a big impact on our cash flow, especially since the last wells we brought on were in December 2024. In addition, we are intending to continue returning capital to shareholders in the form of share buybacks.

For just in the month of July, we purchased about a 130,000 shares. Overall, our plan is to continue to execute and build and grow company value for all shareholders, and we’ll continue to get the word out about how the about the company to shareholders and potential shareholders as we have a number of conferences and presentations that we’ll be making later on this year still. This concludes the formal part of our presentation. We would be pleased to answer any questions you now may have. We’ll now begin the question and answer session.

Again, to ask a question, you may press And your first question today will come from Steve Ferrizani with Sidoti. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, Wolf, Gary. I appreciate you taking the questions today. Wolf, given the timing of

Steve Ferrizani, Analyst, Sidoti: the Laveena wells coming online and now the expectations with those two more wells and the completion scheduled, Any thoughts on the original production guidance you provided for this year? Should we be rethinking that at all?

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: Not so far. I mean, we’ll monitor that. If we see something that changes our guidance, then, you know, outside of the range, then we’ll definitely put that out. But let’s see how these wells clean up and how they come along. And then it’s also price dependent.

Right? So

Steve Ferrizani, Analyst, Sidoti: Of course. Speaking to that, given the oil price environment and given where your share price is right now, was there any thoughts in altering near term your capital allocation plans, slow down at least the completions maybe and and focus on the buyback?

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: You know, right now, we’re still going forward where we are. You know, when we look at what our economics are on these wells based on the type curves that metal and tool put together, that they look like they’re gonna make us good money even in, you know, $60 oil prices range. I obviously like the prices to be higher when we make more money. But right for now, yeah, we’ll drill it. But like you said, we always have the option if prices suddenly drop and then not, then we can delay the completions if we need to.

But at this point, we’re not anticipating that. I think we can make good money at this at these prices. And, so at this stage, we’re looking to go ahead and complete those. I’m just on schedule.

Steve Ferrizani, Analyst, Sidoti: Great. In terms of of the Laveena wells, I think in the in the operations release, you noted that the higher liquids content. Any were you surprised by that? Does that shift at all where you might drill next or how you completed them? If you could just add a little bit of context around that.

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: Yeah. Sure. No. The I mean, the offset wells were a little higher as well. These were a little bit higher than even the offset wells, but this part of the field had a little lower of a gas oil ratio in general.

It was lower than as we’ve stepped off of these offset wells a little bit than we anticipated, but it wasn’t that far off. And so, yeah, it’s it’s encouraging that it’s great. It worked out kinda like it was anticipating and a little bit better, actually. So we have high hopes for running the tuning in and just having a stabilized here or higher rates and then hopefully having really low declines because we don’t have any gas that’s just gonna, you know, blow off. Right.

Right. Right. Okay.

Steve Ferrizani, Analyst, Sidoti: Any thoughts? I know it’s probably way too early on on

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: the Fortis as well and how

Steve Ferrizani, Analyst, Sidoti: you’re thinking about the East Side acreage.

Nick, Conference Call Moderator: Yeah. No. Just way too early. So it’s still the same range. You know?

Everything we drove them in the right spot. Everything went to completions got all stages off, and everything went fine on the completion front of things. And so we got effective stimulation. So now it’s in mother nature’s hands as far as the flow back goes and what kind of rate we get out of it. So Right.

K. Thanks, Wolf. Alright. Thank you. Thanks, Steve.

Appreciate it. Again, if you have a question, please press star and then 1. Please stand by as we poll for questions. No further questions, this will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr.

Wolf Reagoner for any closing remarks. Thank you, Nick. And just thank you everyone for joining the call. Appreciate it. Appreciate your continued support as shareholders and maybe even some new shareholders here that understand the company a little bit better.

But thank you, and hope everyone has a great day. Take care. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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