Earnings call transcript: Lundin Gold’s Q4 2024 record revenue and production

Lundin Gold (OTC:LUGDF) (NASDAQ: LNDG) reported record revenues and production figures for Q4 2024, achieving $1.2 billion in revenue and producing 502,029 ounces of gold. The company also highlighted a strong cash flow performance, generating $662 million in net cash from operations. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.41% in recent trading, though InvestingPro data shows an impressive year-to-date return of 25.15% and a remarkable one-year return of 151.18%. The company maintains a "GREAT" overall financial health score of 3.71 out of 5, according to InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Record revenue of $1.2 billion in 2024.
• Achieved highest-ever annual gold production of 502,029 ounces.
• Strong cash flow with $662 million generated from operations.
• Stock price increased by 0.41% following the earnings announcement.
• Continued focus on plant expansion and resource conversion.

Company Performance

Lundin Gold’s performance in Q4 2024 was marked by significant achievements in both financial and operational metrics. The company reported record revenues driven by the sale of approximately 495,000 ounces of gold at an average price of $2,462 per ounce. This strong performance was supported by the successful expansion of its plant, which increased throughput and improved recovery rates. Compared to previous years, Lundin Gold has maintained its position as a low-cost leader in the gold mining industry, benefiting from high gold prices and efficient operations.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $1.2 billion in 2024, marking a record high.
• Earnings per share: $1.76, with adjusted earnings of $422 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $780 million.
• Net cash from operating activities: $662 million.
• Adjusted free cash flow: $540 million or $2.26 per share.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Lundin Gold has set ambitious targets for 2025, including increasing plant throughput to 5,500 tons per day by 2026 and achieving a 90% plant recovery rate. The company plans to drill a minimum of 80,000 meters and publish an initial resource estimate for the Bonjour Sur project. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company’s strong financial health and operational metrics support these growth initiatives, with analyst price targets ranging from $21.48 to $35.04 per share. Get access to detailed growth forecasts and expert analysis with InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports. Additionally, Lundin Gold is focusing on a new five-year sustainability strategy to enhance its operational and environmental performance.

Executive Commentary

CEO Ron Hochstein emphasized the company’s strong position, stating, "Frutta del Norte is one of the best gold mines in the world." COO Terry Smith added, "We’re at this 5,000,000 ounce run rate and we’d like to keep at that level for as long as we can." These statements underscore the company’s confidence in maintaining its production levels and exploring further growth opportunities.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential fluctuations in gold prices could impact profitability.
• Operational risks related to plant expansion and resource conversion.
• Economic and political uncertainties in Ecuador could affect operations.
• Environmental regulations and sustainability challenges.
• Market competition and potential technological advancements by competitors.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the potential expansion of the Fruta del Norte South resource and the company’s exploration strategy. Executives confirmed a consistent 3g/ton cutoff grade and discussed the possibility of mill expansion and opportunistic share buybacks, reflecting strategic considerations for future growth and shareholder value.

Full transcript - Lug (LUG) Q4 2024:

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and to LendingGold’s Q4 and twenty twenty four Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer This call is being recorded on Friday, 02/21/2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ron Hochstein, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. I’m joined by Terry Smith, Chief Operating Officer and Chester See, our Chief Financial Officer. We’re going to take you through our results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. Please note LendingGold’s disclaimer is on this slide.

This discussion includes forward looking information. Actual future results may differ from expected results for a variety of reasons described in the caution regarding forward looking information and statements section of our press release. LendingGold is a U. S. Dollar reporting entity and all amounts in this presentation refer to U.

S. Dollars unless otherwise indicated. LendingGold had a banner year in 2024, breaking several records both operationally and financially. With respect to operations, the company exceeded production guidance of 450,000 to 500,000 ounces and achieved record annual production of 502,029 ounces, while hitting unit cost guidance having achieved cash operating costs of $712 per ounce sold and AISC of $875 per ounce of gold sold. I’m particularly pleased with our team’s exceptional cost management in 2024.

Our operational excellence initiatives continue to drive down base operating costs, effectively mitigating the impact of several external factors. These factors included higher gold prices, which led to increased royalties and profit sharing, a portion of which is recorded in operating costs. It’s important to remember that our twenty twenty four guidance was based on $1,900 per ounce gold price. With royalties and profit sharing tied to gold price, each $100 increase translates to roughly a $10 increase in both cash operating costs and ASEC. Given our average realized boat price of $2,462 per ounce in 2024, this added approximately $55 per ounce to our costs.

We also saw increased diesel consumption as we strategically utilized our on-site generators to reduce reliance on the national grid. Despite these factors, our team’s cost control efforts allowed us to deliver on our guidance and achieve strong financial results. Before we move on, I want to address our safety performance. We were challenged on the safety front in 2024, recording 10 lost time incidents and 13 medical aid incidents. This resulted in a total recordable incident rate of 0.66 per two hundred thousand hours worked.

This is not where we want to be. We must do better here and we are committed to improving our safety performance. Terry will speak about our safety initiatives in more depth later in this presentation. Turning to our financial achievements for 2024, we generated a record adjusted free cash flow of $540,000,000 or $2.26 per share and ended the year with a strong cash balance of $349,000,000 We achieved a debt free status by purchasing our stream loan credit facility and offtake commitment in the second quarter of twenty twenty four for $330,000,000 Reflecting our confidence in our financial performance and our commitment to returning value to shareholders, we made a decision to increase our quarterly dividend to 0.3 per share payable on 03/26/2025, which is triple our dividend rate at the start of last year and equates to approximately $300,000,000 on an annualized basis. On the growth front, our plant expansion project is substantially complete and we are on track to meet our 2025 production and cost targets.

With the publication of our annual mineral reserves and resources statement, we’ve achieved our highest level of contained ounces to date. We more than replaced our 2024 mining depletion, increased our measured and indicated resources and added 1,700,000 ounces of inferred resources through successful drilling with most of the contribution coming from FTNS, an exciting new area neighboring FTN. Our exploration potential remains strong. We completed over 80,000 meters of drilling in 2024. The 2025 program is off to a solid start and is already expected to be larger than we originally planned as we have added an additional surface rig and are evaluating bringing in additional underground rigs to target FDMS.

We have drilling results pending and I look forward to disclosing these soon. We are also planning to release an initial mineral resource for our Bonza Short project later this year. With that, I’d now like to turn the call over to Terry.

Terry Smith, Chief Operating Officer, Lundin Gold: Thanks, Ron, and good morning all. Before going through operational results, I’d like to talk about our 2024 safety performance. As Ron mentioned earlier, we had 10 last time incidents and 13 medical incidents over the course of the year. A lot of these incidents were related to contractors and many of these incidents were hand injuries. However, we did have some injuries that had the potential to be worse.

Even though we are a small company, we want to continue to be an industry leader in safety performance. Our strategy is simple. We focus on instilling the right behaviors with strong visible leadership and training. We actively identify hazards before we start work and we foster open communication to enable everyone to be a safety champion. If we stay focused, we know we can improve.

Now moving on to operations, despite the challenging power situation in Ecuador, we managed to still generate a strong quarter. Mining activities were modified to allocate available power from the national grid and self generation to ensure continuity in process plants operations. We ended the year strongly with fourth quarter gold production totaling approximately 135,000 ounces. 406,000 tons of ore were mined, while the mill processed 427,000 tons of ore at an average throughput of 4,642 tons per day. The average ore grade milled was 11.3 grams per tonne with an average recovery at 87.1%, both improvements from the third quarter of twenty twenty four.

For the full year 2024, FTN achieved record annual gold production of approximately 502,000 ounces comprised of about 320,000 ounces in concentrate and 182,000 ounces as dore, which as Ron mentioned exceeded the company’s 2024 guidance, a great accomplishment by our operations team. A total of approximately 1,670,000 tons and 1,690,000 tons of ore was mined and processed respectively. Mill production was slightly higher than previous year due to an increase in mill throughput despite more scheduled downtime due to the plant expansion project. The average grade of ore milled was 10.5 grams per tonne with an average recovery at 87.8%. Moving to Slide seven, the overall plant expansion project, which targets increased throughput to 5,000 tons per day and an increase in average recovery of 3% was substantially complete at the end of the year.

Numerous tie ins were completed in the quarter highlighted by commissioning of the first Jamieson cell at the November. Since then recoveries have been positively impacted and throughput of 5,000 tonne per day has been demonstrated. To complete the balance of the expansion project, including the commissioning of the remaining two Jameson cells, we took advantage of a planned SAG mill relining originally scheduled in Q2 and moved it to early February to coincide with the remaining tie in work. This gives us runway through the balance of 2025 with no major planned downtime ahead. The Jameson cells are currently going through commissioning and we expect to be fully up and running with our new flow sheet by month end.

Our 2025 production guidance is based on an average throughput of 5,000 tons per day and plant recovery of 90%. It is important to note we expect gold production to be slightly weighted towards the second half of the year. Production in Q1 is expected to be most affected due to the downtime associated with millinery lining, which I spoke about earlier. Completion of the expansion project and optimization of mill performance after the plant expansion is complete. In addition, we anticipate grade variability quarter over quarter as we execute our mine plan.

Given this production profile, we expect lower unit costs in the second half of the year relative to the first half. Earlier, I mentioned the power crisis due to a record drought in Ecuador. I’m happy to report that following increased rainfall in Ecuador since the start of 2025, the power supply from the national grid has normalized. As we’ve discussed in previous quarters, we invested in additional diesel power generation capacity and we are on track to complete this project at the end of Q1. With that, I’d like to now turn the call over to Chester to discuss our financial results.

Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. For the

Chester See, Chief Financial Officer, Lundin Gold: full year 2024, Lundin Gold recognized record revenues of $1,200,000,000 from the sale of approximately 495,000 ounces of gold at an average realized gold price of $24.62 per ounce. Income from mining operations was $7.00 $3,000,000 compared to $435,000,000 last year, primarily a result of the higher gold price. From this, Lundin Gold generated adjusted earnings of $422,000,000 or $1.76 per share for 2024 compared to $2.00 $4,000,000 or $0.86 per share a year early. Adjusted EBITDA was a record $780,000,000 for the year. It should be noted that these figures were impacted by a $10,000,000 adjustment to our stock based compensation expense in corporate G and A.

Given our strong free cash flow, we expect our board to elect to sell share units in cash going forward, which resulted in a reclassification of our PSUs and RSUs to fair value accounting. As a result, our share price appreciation since the grant date of outstanding share units were recognized during Q4. Free cash flow in 2024 was another record and was supported by a strong gold price. For 2024, we generated $662,000,000 net cash from operating activities and $540,000,000 in adjusted free cash flow or $226 per share compared to adjusted free cash flow of $263,000,000 or $111 per share a year earlier. We expect to continue generating significant free cash flow in the future based on our production and ASIC guidance, especially given increased exposure to strong gold prices and no debt service costs.

During 2024, we generated $662,000,000 from operating activities, bought out the stream and offtake for $330,000,000 and doubled our dividends in the third quarter paying out 144,000,000 for the full year. Our cash position after these payments increased from $268,000,000 at the beginning of the year to $349,000,000 at the end of the year. With record gold prices being realized in 2025 and our production and unit cost guidance, I am very optimistic that we will continue to generate significant free cash flow. And having said that, I’d like to talk about our commitment to returning value to our shareholders through our dividend policy and our broader capital allocation strategy. We are pleased to announce a significant 50% increase in our quarterly dividend.

Effective 02/20/2025, the dividend has been raised from $0.2 to $0.3 per share. On an annual basis, this represents approximately $300,000,000 returned directly to our shareholders. This marks the second dividend increase in the last twelve months. You’ll recall, we doubled our dividend from $0.1 to $0.2 per share during the third quarter last year. This increase reflects our confidence in FDN’s ability to maintain free cash flow at record levels recently achieved and our commitment to shareholder returns.

Even with the substantial dividend increase, we expect to continue to review our dividend policy while maintaining cash reserves for other strategic capital allocation initiatives, including conducting expansive exploration programs to ensure the long term growth of our resource base, funding future capital projects and expansion opportunities and pursuing inorganic growth opportunities through corporate development, potentially adding new assets to our portfolio. Furthermore, we’ve also initiated a normal course issuer bid or NCIB program. This provides us with an additional tool in the toolbox to enhance shareholder value by opportunistically repurchasing shares when we believe it’s in the best interest of the company. Our capital allocation strategy demonstrates our commitment to balancing shareholder returns with strategic investments that will drive sustainable growth and value creation. For a more detailed discussion of our financial results, I encourage you to turn to the MD and A.

Now I’d like to turn the call back over to Ron.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thank you, Chester. Turning to Slide 15, I’d like to talk about our updated resource and reserve statement, which we put out earlier this week. We’re incredibly pleased to announce a significant milestone for lending gold in our Fruchstone Locte mine. As of 12/31/2024, we’ve achieved a new high in contained gold ounces in both our mineral reserves and mineral resources. Our proven and probable mineral reserves have grown to 5,540,000 ounces even after accounting for 2024 mining depletion.

This increase is a result of successful conversion drilling, mine design improvements and updated technical parameters. Measured and indicated mineral resources have also increased to 7,060,000 ounces. This demonstrates success of our conversion drilling program, which has reclassified inferred resources into higher confidence categories. And what’s more, this conversion occurred right on the reserve boundary. Our inferred resources have seen a substantial 59% increase now totaling 2,360,000 ounces of gold.

This growth is largely attributed to our successful near mine exploration program, particularly at Fruta Del Marte South. FTM has produced approximately 2,400,000 ounces since mining began in 2019 and has successfully added 3,100,000 ounces of reserves compared to the 2016 technical report. This growth in our resource base is a testament to the hard work and creativity of our team and the inherent quality of the new Frutta Del Norte deposit. We’re confident in our ability to continue delivering strong exploration results. 13 drill rigs are currently turning on the on FDM near mine exploration program.

2024 was a great year for Lundin Gold having broken so many records. Now looking ahead to 2025, we have a clear set of objectives that will drive our continued growth and success. First and foremost, we must improve on safety. You heard from Terry and we have implemented enhanced measures to reduce lost time incidents and the all injury frequency rate. The safety of our workforce is paramount.

We will successfully commission our planned expansion project. This is a key milestone that will significantly increase our processing capacity and support our production growth. We are focused on achieving our twenty twenty five production and unit cost guidance. We have a solid plan in place to deliver on these targets. Our exploration efforts will continue with a minimum of 80,000 meters drilled.

As mentioned at the onset, we’re currently looking to bring more drill rigs to site, which will support resource expansion and discovery. We will prioritize the conversion of the Frutta Del Norte South inferred resources to measure the indicated categories and further grow the inferred resources. This will enhance the confidence in our resource base and unlock future value. We’re on track to publish an initial resource estimate for Bonjour Sur. This is a significant milestone that will demonstrate the potential of this exciting deposit.

We will establish a new five year sustainability strategy, which will guide our efforts to operate responsibly and create long term value for all stakeholders. And finally, we plan to pay out 300,000,000 to shareholders and we’ll continue to review the dividend policy as we to go forward, especially given this gold price environment. We are confident in our ability to achieve these objectives. We have a strong team, a world class asset and a clear strategy for success. Frutta del Marte is one of the best gold mines in the world, having one of the lowest cost structures and highest production profiles.

With now close to 10,000,000 ounces of resources on the books and 13 drill rigs turning on-site as we speak with more to come. I’m excited more than ever about the company’s future. Thank you all for joining us and for your continued support. This is very much appreciated. With that, I will now open the call to questions.

Over to you, Andrew.

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: Thank Your first question is from Don DeMarco from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Don DeMarco, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Thank you, operator. And good morning, Ron. Congratulations on a strong year and great FDNS and FDN resource update. Starting with that, what are your thoughts behind the cutoff grade that you selected for the FDNS base case?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Yes. Good morning, Don, and thank you for the kind words. Yes, we decided made the decision to be consistent across the entire resource and maintain the cutoff grade at three grams per ton, which is what was behind the resource estimate that we produced. As you’ve seen in that table, FD and S will likely be slightly different mining methods, more or less long haul stoping versus transverse long haul stoping. So we may look at increasing the cutoff grade.

But the big thing, Don, the other thing factor is, we know we’ve got potential we kind of constrained our drill spacing there on the resource. So we’ve got wider drill spacing and we’re seeing that’s what’s going to be our focus for 2025 is to infill that such that we’ll be able to bring this on and then have even a better feel, but for going into 2025. But the key was just to be consistent, not have different cutoff grades. Terry, do you have anything else to add on that?

Terry Smith, Chief Operating Officer, Lundin Gold: No, I think you covered it, Rhonda. That was the reason, Don, we added that cutoff grade sensitivity to give everyone a sense of where the grade can go as the cutoff grade ratchets up. And as we advance this towards reserves, of course, we’ll get a good handle on the mining method as Ron described in the operating costs we anticipate and look forward to that.

Don DeMarco, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Okay, great. And then continuing with FDNS, maybe a little more color. If you could just remind us or elaborate on permitting requirements, development requirements to access the ore, potential timing of first production? And also do you intend to use it to supplement or extend the existing FDN mine plan?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: The answer to the first, permitting zero. It’s all part of the original part of FDN. So that’s no efforts no activity required there. We should mention actually Don that we did receive actually our permit for our expanded tailings facility here just in the past ten days. So that would be the only permits required as it goes, we increase resources, but we did get that permit here in the last ten days.

With regards to how it fits in the mine plan, I’ll take a shot and then I’ll ask Terry to I think what we’re seeing is this could augment the existing FDM mine plan, bring in we see this as a higher grade resource versus some of the outer edges of FDM, the southern parts of FDM proper. And so this may augment we’ve already got two levels right through FDNS. Terry and the team right now are looking at some more development that will help us to drill it out better. But I don’t know, Terry, you want to add? Yes.

I mean the question of is it extending or growing our production profile? I think both.

Terry Smith, Chief Operating Officer, Lundin Gold: We’re at this 5,000,000 ounce run rate and we’d like to keep at that level for as long as we can. And so as we bring this material in and can defer some of the lower grades that’s in our life of mine plan, and we can just keep that run rate going. So I think it’ll enhance and extend the mine.

Don DeMarco, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Okay, great. And then just as a final question, congratulations on the dividend increase. It’s good to see your intentions here with respect to capital allocation. Now some of the companies in the Lundin Group have previously issued a special dividend thinking of Lucara Diamonds years ago, there may have been others. Is that something you might consider?

And also in implementing the NCIB, given your flows limited with certain insider ownership, do you have any concerns in that regard?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: I think that’s why both Cheshire and I stated that we’ve increased this dividend, but we are reviewing the policy. Don, I think we’re going to be generating significant cash and we just want to give the analysts, you and the shareholders the foresight that this isn’t kind of set now. We’re looking at the future and look for opportunities, whether it is special variable. As we’ve said to date, we want to keep a sustainable dividend. And what’s really encouraging is Chester’s run a bunch of numbers and even at much lower gold price that we see today, this $300,000,000 is sustainable.

With regards to MCIB, Chester mentioned it’s opportunistically. So this is not something that we just wanted to have that toolkit in our belt, but it’s only going to be very opportunistic scenarios that we would look at using it. Okay.

Don DeMarco, Analyst, National Bank Financial: Thanks for that. That’s all for me. Good luck with Q1 and the rest of the year.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thanks, Don.

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is from Anita Soni from RBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni, Analyst, CIBC (TSX:CM): CIBC. I’m sure the RBC analyst will not be pleased to

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: hear

Anita Soni, Analyst, CIBC: that. So just a question with respect to the FTNS and FTN East deposits. I think I’m just so the intention is to just maintain current levels and displace ore. I was wondering if there was a point at which you thought that might make sense to expand your existing mill facility and to what extent that is possible and how high you could go?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Yes. Thanks, Anita. Yes, that’s something that we continually look at. We’ve been focused as I’m sure we’ve talked with you before of expanding, essentially building a new mill facility when we were at Fonsa Sur more so than FDNS and FDNEs. But again, the exploration results, but Andre and the team continue to do, we do we look at expanding that with the existing infrastructure we have underground, there’s obviously some limitations, but we do see some upsides there to be able to pull more ore out.

And,

Ovea Sabib, Analyst, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS): but it’d

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: be more bonds of sure probably would be the true driving factor of expanding the facilities there. And that would take an amendment to our environment. That would take some permitting, an amendment to our environmental EMP.

Anita Soni, Analyst, CIBC: Okay. So 5,000 ton per day it is at the existing mill facility and only bonds that sort of be the one that would be the new build with permitting?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: We’re actually say we’re at 5,000 ton now, but we actually are going to 5,500 ton per day for 2026 and onward. And I know the team is looking at what more can we do. We’ve gone originally we went from $35,000,000 to $42,000,000 and then through debottlenecking we’re able to get it up to $45,000,000 And now with this expansion, the nameplate is $5,000 but we’re already encouraged by the work that the team is doing at site to be able to get that 5,500 for next year and then we’ll look at what more we can do.

Anita Soni, Analyst, CIBC: Okay. All right. That’s it for my questions. Thank you.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thanks, Anita.

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: Your next question is from Ovea Sabib from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Ovea Sabib, Analyst, Scotiabank: Hi, Ron and Lundin team. Sorry, I got a little bit late joining the call, but just wanted to congratulate you on a solid Q4 and solid 2024. Just a question on Bonsai Sur. In terms of obviously, you’ve got a really decent strike length already delineated. I believe you are somewhere close to around 2.6 kilometers now.

And when we were there at site in November, you were also talking about moving towards, I believe the East. Is that still the plan? And then the question also is, when do you pull the pin in terms of putting a resource estimate out on Bonsozor? Thank you.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Yes. Thanks, Sobeys. Yes, we’re looking at still potentially extending the strike length. We’re drilling to the South, but some of the focus right now is drilling to both the east and west to expand it. We see some opportunities there.

So bonds of sewer very much is still growing. We have put internally have said we’d like to see a resource asset. We’re targeting to have a resource estimate out by mid year, our initial one.

Ovea Sabib, Analyst, Scotiabank: And once we have the initial resource estimate out, is there kind of do you start some sort of permitting work there or is it just move to some sort of studies and then we’ll see how things won’t cross on that front?

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: We’ve already started doing baseline work. We’ve got geotech drilling and met sampling is well underway. What else have we got Terry?

Terry Smith, Chief Operating Officer, Lundin Gold: Yes, I think we’re moving the engineering in parallel with the exploration. And so when we decide to move ahead with the study and start the permitting process, we’ll be well underway.

Ovea Sabib, Analyst, Scotiabank: Perfect. Thanks for the color on that guys. And good to see also that the energy crisis also now behind us as well. So thanks for taking my questions.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thanks,

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with closing remarks.

Ron Hochstein, President and CEO, Lundin Gold: Thanks, Andrew. And thank you everybody for taking the time to hear a little bit more about the past year and the exciting 2025 we have in front of us. Appreciate we all appreciate very much your support and hope everyone has a great weekend. Thank you.

Andrew, Conference Call Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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