Earnings call transcript: Mapfre posts record profit in Q4 2024

Mapfre (BME:MAP) reported a robust financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving a net profit of €992 million, the highest in over a decade. The company’s stock, however, saw a slight decline of 1.85% during the trading session. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week high, with the RSI suggesting overbought conditions. Despite recent volatility, Mapfre has demonstrated impressive momentum with a 55.56% return over the past six months. The results were driven by strong premium growth and improved operational efficiency, despite a challenging global environment.

Key Takeaways

• Mapfre achieved a net profit of €992 million, marking its best performance in over ten years.
• Premiums increased by 6.6% at constant exchange rates, reaching a historic €28 billion.
• The stock price dipped by 1.85% following the earnings announcement.
• Mapfre’s combined ratio improved to 94.4%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
• The company achieved carbon neutrality in 15 target countries.

Company Performance

Mapfre’s fourth-quarter performance underscored its strategic focus on growth and operational excellence. The company reported a record net profit and an adjusted return on equity of 12%. Premium growth was robust across key markets, with a notable improvement in the motor and general insurance segments. Mapfre’s strategic plan, emphasizing technical excellence and sustainability, has begun to yield positive results.

Financial Highlights

• Net profit: €992 million, highest in over a decade
• Premiums: €28 billion, up 6.6% at constant exchange rates
• Adjusted ROE: 12%
• Combined ratio: Improved to 94.4%

Outlook & Guidance

Mapfre remains optimistic about its growth prospects for 2025, targeting a 5-6% increase in premiums, excluding life savings products. The company aims to maintain an ROE of 10-11% and continues to focus on digital transformation and technical excellence. The motor insurance market, particularly in Spain and the U.S., is expected to improve, contributing to future growth.

Executive Commentary

Antonio Huertas, Mapfre’s CEO, emphasized the success of the company’s strategic initiatives, stating, "We have reported an excellent year with outstanding results, confirming the success of our new strategic plan." He also highlighted the challenges posed by geopolitical instability, noting, "The environment we operate in remains highly unstable."

Risks and Challenges

• Geopolitical instability could impact global operations and market conditions.
• Inflationary pressures, although largely overcome, remain a concern.
• Competition in key markets, particularly in motor insurance, may affect profitability.
• Regulatory changes in different regions could pose compliance challenges.
• Economic uncertainties in Latin America could impact growth prospects.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the profitability of the motor insurance segment in Spain and the U.S. Mapfre’s management expressed confidence in their prudent reserving approach and discussed their positive outlook for Brazilian agricultural insurance. For deeper insights into Mapfre’s financial health and future prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access exclusive analysis and 8 additional ProTips, along with a comprehensive Pro Research Report that transforms complex Wall Street data into actionable intelligence. Additionally, a succession plan was announced, with Jose Luis Jimenez set to succeed Fernando Mata as CFO.

Full transcript - Mapfre (MAP) Q4 2024:

Felipe Navarro, Deputy General Manager of Finance Area, MAPFRE: Good afternoon, and welcome to MAPFRE’s full year’s 2024 activity update. This is Felipe Navarro, Deputy General Manager of the Finance Area. We want to welcome those who have joined us in person today as well as everyone online. It is a pleasure to have Antonio Huertas, MAPFRE’s CEO, here with us today. He will make a few opening remarks and will give an overview of the business trends and developments.

Later, Fernando Mata, the Group CFO, who will comment the main financials and Jose Luis Jimenez, the Deputy CFO, who will walk us through the balance sheet and capital topics. We will discuss local accounting figures and will give a brief overview of IFRS seventeen and nine figures at the end. Before we begin, just a few reminders. First, interpretation services are available both here and at home, so feel free to choose the language you prefer, either English or Spanish. At the end of the presentation, we will open up the Q and A.

For those of you who are here with us today, you can ask your questions in person, of course. And for those of you in line, please use the Ask a Question link on the bottom of your screen. Questions can be made in either language. I will hand the floor over to Antonio Huertes. Please, Antonio.

Antonio Huertas, CEO, MAPFRE: Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you, Felipe. Before we discuss the key figures, which we are presenting under local accounting standards, as Felipe said, I would like to reflect on the past year. I’m pleased to present our results for 2024, which have been outstanding posting the highest level of profit in over a decade. We are quite proud to highlight that we are meeting most financial targets set out in our current strategic plan.

And in some cases, even surpassing them. This is proof of our successful execution of the strategic plan. We continue to focus on technical excellence, while financial income remains a strong tailwind. We posted an excellent result of $992,000,000, the largest ever, and adjusted ROE of 12%. After accounting for the 90,000,000 impairment of Vugel in Verdi, Germany recorded in September, net profit was $9.00 2,000,000, up 30%.

Figures under IFRS were also very solid with a net result of $968,000,000 and a combined ratio of 93%. Growth remains robust with premiums up 6.6% at constant exchange rates with more than 28,000,000,000 in premiums, our historic record too. The growth was really 4.5%, affected by the depreciation of most Latin American currencies. Long life technical profitability continues to improve with a combined ratio at 94.4% and a little over 93% in the fourth quarter. The LPNC contributed the most to this reduction on the back of technical improvements as well as the absence of significant cut events.

Motul continues to show strong advances in several markets, significantly improving profitability in North America and LatAm. In Iberia, measures are still being implemented, and we expect to see the results in the coming years in the coming quarter, sorry. So far, this year, data shows we are heading in the right direction. The market in EMEA is quite challenging, but we are talking all necessary measure to improve our technical results there. The balance sheet is stronger on both asset and liability side.

We continue to increase reserve improvements in many markets, especially in the reinsurance business and Iberia. Our capital base remains strong with shareholders’ equity up over 5% to billion and the Solvency II ratio at 202% as of September, in line with our reference framework. Thanks to these robust results, we are proposing the highest dividend in the company’s history. MAPFRE’s Board of Directors has proposed a final dividend of to be approved by the AGM in March. This will bring the total dividends paid against 20 20 four results to EUR 0.16, amounting to over EUR $590,000,000 fully in cash and with a payout of 55% within our target range.

This attractive dividend remuneration with three consecutive increases is evidence of our firm commitment to shareholders. Over the last five years, MAPFRE has paid out more than EUR 2,200,000,000.0 with an average dividend yield of 7.7% and nearly 7% in 2024. Moving on to the main regions and businesses units. I do believe that all of them are delivering exceptional results, supported by a focus on technical excellence as well as diversification. Life and general P and C lines are performing exceptionally well.

In addition to reinsurance and global risks, Iberia is benefiting from its highly diversified business mix and improvements in technical management. Premiums were over EUR 9,000,000,000, and we maintain our leading position in key business line. Profit is up 6% to $367,000,000. If we exclude the impact from the BANKI agreement in 2023, net profit would be more than 50,000,000 higher than last year, up 70%. LATAM, including Brazil, remains the largest contributor to business volumes and profit, with close to billion in premiums and million in results, achieved as a consequence of technical improvements as well as a strong contribution from investments.

North America is posting a remarkable profit this year with million at the and the ROE now at over 8%. Lastly, our insurance and global risk businesses delivered a solid result of million with an 81,000,000 improvement supported by growth and the absence of large cut events despite the increase in secondary perils. These outstanding results are supported by a long term strategy focused on profitable growth, technical excellence and diversification as set out in our twenty twenty four to twenty twenty six strategic plan. Now I will hand the floor to Fernando to walk us through main figures. Fernando, please.

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: Thank you, Antonio. As mentioned, premiums are up 4.5, supported by non life tariff adjustments. There have been headwinds from the Brazilian real and other Latin American currencies. At constant exchange rates, premiums are up 6.6%, in line with growth expectations. By market, almost all regions continue performing positively, especially Iberia, Odeletam and reinsurance.

Non life premiums, which are around 80% of our business, are growing at 5.6%, seven point six % at constant exchange rates, reaching over billion. Performance in the accident and health line has been noteworthy, up around 8%, and Motor is also up around 6%. The General P and C business is growing 1.5%, impacted by the slowdown of Agro in Brazil as well as the depreciation of the Latin American currencies. Life business, which is around 20% of premiums, has grown 3% constant exchange rates, resulting from slower sales activity in the fourth quarter with savings down 1% year on year. Life Protection is up 3.6% with natural growth in Mexico and Latin America as well as healthy trends in Spain.

I will now discuss the key trends by region. In Iberia, net profit has reached million, up 1.6% with an ROE of 11.4%. Last year results included a net impact of million due to the arbitration related to the Bankia exit. Excluding this item, profit growth was more than 17%. Realized gains are lower with EUR 46,000,000 in 2024 compared to EUR 74,000,000 in 2023.

Dedana storms during the fourth quarter were manageable with a EUR 27,000,000 net impact. And growth trends are pretty strong with non life premiums, up 6.5%, driven by strong general P and C performance, especially condominiums and homeowners, along with the Accidental Health business. Life premiums are down 5%, which I will explain later. Profitability in LatAm has been excellent with a net contribution of $4.00 8,000,000 and ROE around 1818%. Non life profitability is exceptional across the region and financial income is performing well in most of the region.

Premium growth trends are strong in Mexico, Colombia, Chile and The Dominican Republic. Brazil continues to see exceptional profitability with a net result of EUR $255,000,000 and an ROE of almost 26%. Non life combined ratio improved nearly six points to 72.8%, driven by Agro and Motor. The rest of LATAM continues to show strong profitability, contributing million with improvements in technical results in most markets and also tailwinds from financial income. In North America, the net result reached BRL97.6 million compared to near breakeven last year, a big jump.

This is driven by underwriting measures and significant tariff increases along with a benign weather. The combined ratio has decreased by almost seven points, now at 98.7%. And in Puerto Rico, it’s remarkable as well. Net profit was over 25,000,000. In EMEA, losses have been reduced significantly to around 30,000,000, improving by $1,616,000,000.

Turkey posted a profit of 28,000,000 with a combined ratio down 14 percentage points and high financial income. On the other hand, the auto business remains challenging in both countries, Germany and Italy. MAPFRE REE. Net profit excellent, up 33% to over million. The combined ratio is down two points to 93.6%.

The most significant events in the year were the floods, well known by you, in Brazil as well as the storms in Europe. As a reminder, last year, the Turkish earthquake and hurricane Otis in Mexico had a combined impact of sorry, a net result impact of over EUR 150,000,000. We continue to reinforce our prudence in provisions due to the ongoing rise in secondary perils. Finally, Modi continues to grow, posting a net result of nearly million. I would also like to address two specific items.

Just as a reminder, in September, we recorded a million goodwill write down in Virta Germany, which is reflected in the holding and adjustments line. Last year, the same line, there was a million from the write down of The U. S. Business. Second item, there were around million of positive tax adjustments at year end compared with the million recognized in September, and the reduction was due to year end regulatory changes.

On the right side, you can see the ROEs and combined ratios, but different segments. General P and C. This is our main line of business, both by premiums as well as profit and has delivered a standing performance. Premiums are up 1.5% and the combined ratio has improved nearly seven points to 80.9%. The net result stands at million, million increase.

In Iberia, premiums have risen by nearly 7% fueled by homeowners and also condominiums. The result has nearly tripled to almost EUR 147,000,000 and the combined ratio has improved by 5.5 points to 94.5%. This excellent level includes a 1.6% impact from the Dana on the full year combined ratio and 6.5% in the fourth quarter. In Brazil, premiums have decreased by six percent, but are up over 2% in local currency. Agricultural issuance has been affected by the high interest rate environment and also the falling commodity prices.

The result in the region is almost million, up 21.5% and the combined ratio has improved to around 63 with no relevant events during the quarter. This excellent level is also supported by the diversification of the agro portfolio, which is sold as an insurance package, including life protection, around 40% of the premium, as well as property and crop insurance, around 30% each. North America had an excellent year with a combined ratio of 84.3%, supported by tariff adjustments in homeowners and benign weather. In fact, the ratio in December, which is typically a bad month, was the lowest on the last ten years. The net results stood at million compared to million in 2023.

In summary, General P and C continues to be highly profitable and also well diversified. Auto. The fourth quarter results for the Motor segment confirmed the trends seen in previous quarters, showing gradual improvements. Losses have been reduced by more than 40,000,000 to 26,000,000 with the combined ratio improving by 1.4 points to 104.6%. The group’s average premium is growing by almost 11% with total premiums up 6% with some drag from currencies, especially in LatAm.

Insured units are down by 4.6% due to selected underwriting. The results reflect an outstanding turnaround in North America, while Brazil and the rest of Latin America are operating at combined ratios near breakeven 100% or below, which is satisfactory given the interest rate environment in these markets. In Iberia, premiums have grown by over 6%, while our portfolio is down 3%, around 180,000 units, of which 80,000 of this reduction is due to fleet premium. The combined ratio had slight uptick of 1.5 points, reaching 105.4, impacted by increased cost resulting from various changes to the bodily injury compensation scale, known by you by Debora Remo, will affect both current and previous year claims as well as a higher prudence margin applied by MAPFRE to the outstanding claims provision. Eliminating these two effects, the underlying combined ratio for 2024 will be around 102%.

On the other hand, material damage expenses remain under control, thanks to cost containment progress. And as we said, tariffs will continue to be adapted in line with expected future costs. This makes us confident that we will reach technical profitability at some point in the coming quarters. In Brazil, premiums are down close to 9%, less than 1% in local currency, with the numbers of units relatively flat in the year. The combined ratio of Brazil has decreased by 1.3 points to 101.2%.

In North America, local currency, the average premium is up 11.5%. Premiums are growing 6.5% with units down over 5%. The combined ratio improved six points at around 101% with a slight uptick in the fourth quarter due to seasonal effects, but it’s still showing a strong recovery year on year. The turnaround has been outstanding with a net profit of million improving by million, thanks to technical improvements and tariff adjustments. In 2025, rate hikes should converge with expected claims inflation.

In a nutshell, we continue to closely monitor the Motor segment and tariff adjustments, together with the street and the rail will help us to return to profitability. Life business. This segment contributed million to the result with Iberia being the late sorry, the largest contributor. In Iberia, total premiums are down 5% affected by the exceptional issuance in savings in 2023, while protection premiums are up almost 4% with the combined ratio standing and at excellent 68.2%. We outperformed the market, which fell over 13% during the year.

Net result, remarkable, million positive portfolio yields are contributing to the financial result, which with net realized gains of million, 10 higher than last year’s. As a reminder, 2023 included 29,000,000 from the Bankia exit. Excluding these extraordinary items, the result will be up 8%. In Brazil, protection premiums are down 6% by growing over 2% in Brasilia Real. This summer slowed down in investment and lending in the economy due to the recent rate sorry, rate hikes, which are affecting sales.

Jose Luis Jimenez, Deputy CFO, MAPFRE: This is

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: a very profitable business and the combined ratio stands at an excellent 84%, although up 4.5 points due to higher acquisitions expenses already commented in previous presentations. Regarding the rest of countries, volumes are up by 27% led by other LatAm. Mexico is noteworthy, growing almost 49% in flight protection. And the result reached EUR 49,000,000 with a reduction of EUR 37,000,000 due to an increase in the runoff annuity portfolio research in Colombia, those that are linked to the legal minimum wave, which as you know, significantly increased at year end. On the other hand, Protection continues growing its contribution to the net result.

Now I will hand over to Jose Luis to discuss the main balance sheet items.

Jose Luis Jimenez, Deputy CFO, MAPFRE: Thank you, Fernando. So shareholder equity stands strong at over EUR 8,500,000,000.0, up over 5% on the back of this year excellent result. Market movements had a limited impact on our closing position. The slight revaluation of our investment portfolio has mitigated the low negative currency conversion differences. The strong rally of the U.

S. Dollar towards ESN, up nearly 7% helped offset the 16% fall in the Brazilian real and the depreciation of all the Latin American currencies. Leverage is under 22% around the 24% framework, which was the reference we announced at our AGM, reflecting our disciplined approach to capital and debt management and the growing equity base. Now I would like to take a moment to discuss cash flows upstreaming within MAPFRE Group. In 2024, we achieved more than SEK 700,000,000, a SEK 66,000,000 increase.

These cash flows were allocated to pay EUR $477,000,000 in dividends as well as to cover overhead, interest expenses and other capital need. As you can see, our sources of cash generation are well diversified. Iberia remain the most important contributor with EUR $316,000,000. LatAm contributed EUR 200,000,000 with an increase in Brazil reaching over EUR 150,000,000. North America had the most relevant increase reaching over EUR 60,000,000.

And MAPFRE RE increase is upstream to EUR 120,000,000. Asset allocation has been relatively stable during the year, increasing corporate bonds and reducing sovereign and cash. The Spanish Gobi remain our largest exposure with EUR 9,600,000,000.0. Our portfolio is defensive and well diversified. Falling yields have reduced the unrealized losses in our portfolio with relative stability during the year.

We have almost EUR 40,000,000,000 in third party assets, making us one of the leading non bank players in Spain, with an exceptional increase in pension funds this year, up almost 9%. Our nearly EUR 46,000,000,000 investment portfolio, together with the asset management business, brings total assets under management to over EUR 59,000,000,000, up 4% compared to last year. On the right, you can see our main fixed income portfolios. As a reminder, a large portion is immunized or matched. I will focus on the actively managed portfolios, which are the main profit contributors.

Regarding the Euro Area, deal are up over 45 basis points during the year at MAPFRE and 10 basis points in Iberia. If we exclude linkers, yields are up 20 basis points higher in Iberia Non Life, 10 basis points at MAPFRE. Accounting yields are still below current market levels in most portfolios. In other markets, accounting yields in LatAm are up and still below market levels, with a nearly 20% basis point increase in Brazil during the year. In North America, the increase is 14 basis points.

There were no relevant changes in duration during the quarter. The higher yields have been reflected in financial income, as you can see in the figures on the left for our main non life unit. Iberia is flat due to lower realized gains. As a reminder, in 2023, there was the sale of a relevant property. In Brazil, financial income is down over 7% due to the currency depreciation.

And during the last quarter, we are already seeing the impact of the rise in interest rate scenario, with the rest of Latin America showing growth. North America has been stable, while in EMEA, financial income is slightly down compared to 2023 as there were high forest differences from the Lira depreciation in the second half or last year. The financial result in Turkey is expected to remain strong due to high interest rates. MAPFRE RE continues to show a strong profitability. On the right, you can see the net financial gains, which reached EUR 80,000,000 with EUR 29,000,000 from the Iberia Life business and another EUR 11,000,000 in non Life units.

These figures include relevant gains on the equity portfolio, which offset the impact of real estate provisions. Here you can see the main KPIs under IFRS seventeen and nine compared to local GAAP. I will comment on the most relevant ones. In Surna’s revenue, which reached a little over SEK 25,000,000,000, is up 3%. The net result stand at SEK $968,000,000 under IFRS, EUR 66,000,000 higher than local cap.

IFRS 17 had a EUR 98,000,000 positive impact. The risk margin on loss component were negative but were offset by deal movements and other adjustments. IFRS nine had a negative NOK 32,000,000 impact with two main drivers: realized gains on equity recorded under OCI, which offset the mutual fund valuation gains booked in P and L. Seholder equity amount to SEK 8,900,000,000.0, growing at a similar rate than under local cap. The gross CCM controlled sales margin was SEK 2,500,000,000.0.

It is down around EUR 100,000,000 during the year, EUR 92,000,000 of which correspond to currency depreciation, mainly the Brazilian real. The CCM net of tax minorities was SEK 1,600,000,000.0, up over 2%. The 93% combined ratio under IFS has improved slightly, down 3.5 points. The return on equity stood at 11% under IFRS. Further disclosure of IFRS figures can be found on the nexus of the presentation as well as in our annual accounts, which are available on our website.

Now I will hand the floor over to Antonio for closing remarks.

Antonio Huertas, CEO, MAPFRE: Thank you, Jose Luis. Now I would like to highlight our financial strategic performance during last year. The close of 2024 marks the end of the third year of our new strategic plan. We have continued to implement we have continued to implement our strategy supported by the structural and leadership changes that took place last year, moving the group into new phase, more focused on growth and results. Enhancing technical excellence, improving productivity and leveraging MAPFRE’s potential across all of our markets are all contributing to ensure we meet our public targets.

Referring to the financial commitments, we are very pleased with the achievement of the targets on the current plan. Premiums have grown by 5%, excluding life savings compared to a target of 6%. Currency depreciation has had a significant impact on our KPIs, and we would have reached our target at constant change rates. Our average ROE target for the period is 10% to 11%, excluding extraordinary items. If we exclude the goodwill write down, we have posted a solid 12% this year, well above the target, and we are still at 11% if we include the write down.

The average combined ratio target for this three year period is 95% to 96%, and performance was excellent at 94.4%. These financial figures are on the local accounting, but we are also meeting these targets under IFRS. We are highly committed to sustainability. We have achieved our 2024 targets, and we are well on our way to meeting our twenty twenty six public commitments. We have achieved carbon neutrality in terms of the 15 target countries, and we will continue expanding to the remaining five in the next two years.

Over 90% of our portfolio is now ESG rated, and we aim to reach over 95 by 2026. Additionally, women now occupy 34.5% of top management positions, very close to our 36% target. As you can see, we have reported an excellent year with outstanding results, confirming the success of our new strategic plan with most financial targets on track. Our solid and profitable business model allows us to grow steadily, backed by strong financial positions and low debt levels. MAPFRE continues to hold leading positions in most markets in challenging and demanding context.

We have the financial strength to seize opportunities for organic growth and also open to any opportunity aligned with our strategy that may arise. We are moving forward with our sustainability plans, and we are also making significant strides in digital transformation, innovation as well as artificial intelligence, but always putting our people and stakeholders at the core for our strategy. Environment we operate in remains highly unstable. We have overcome the threat of inflation, but the world is still far from achieving geopolitical stability, which remains one of the greatest threats and has become the new normal. MAPFRE has already demonstrated its ability to thrive in a constantly changing environment.

The coming years will continue to be demanding, but we are approaching them with optimism. The final dividend announced this morning is proof of our confidence in the future. We remain committed to strengthening our relationship with shareholders and creating value for society as a whole. Before I hand the floor over to Felipe for the Q and A session, I would like to say a few words regarding the order list succession plan that we have just announced this morning. Our CFO Chief Financial Officer, Fernando Mater, has held various responsibilities in the company, leading with commitment and loyalty for almost three years, the last ten of which as group CFO and the last seven as a member of the board and by Chairman.

He will be succeeded in these functions by Jose Luis Gimene, who will take over Fernando’s role in upcoming presentations. Additionally, either Jose Manuel Linciotti, our Executive Vice Chairman, or I will also participate in these events. Fernando, few words, you want.

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: Yes. You allow me. First of all, I would like to come here today for Afosad Griese for his appointment. And to you, Antonio, has been a great honor to be first a board member, the board that chaired by you for many, many years. And also to be part of this, to me, the greatest executive team I ever met and also this part of this largest in the world family, which is well known by MAPFRE.

Despite my baby face, I’m turning 64, sorry about that, in March. And believe me, frankly, I mean, it’s time to sit down. So I will be retiring as CFO in March after almost ten years that I will never forget. That’s what I have to say, never forget. I will continue to I will be around, obviously.

I will continue collaborating with MAPFRE

Antonio Huertas, CEO, MAPFRE: to do that. You’ve got improved your handicapper now.

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: That’s correct. It’s tough. Anyway, to collaborate with MAPFRE as a nonexecutive position, in an executive position to the stand that MAPFRE requires, obviously. And you, bankers, financial analysts, investors, thank you very much to all of you. First, for your presence, your questions, your insights, your recommendation, they’re very valuable very, very valuable for me.

And above all, for the respect that you always had with me. Thank you, again.

Felipe Navarro, Deputy General Manager of Finance Area, MAPFRE: I will take over now. Thank you, Fernando. Although most of you are already familiar with the process, let me quickly remind you on the details of this Q and A session. Those who are here in person can raise your hand and will give you the floor. And please introduce yourselves before asking questions.

I can hardly see your faces from here. It is possible to ask questions both in Spanish or English at your convenience. For those of you connected online, you can ask the Q and A tool on the bottom of your screen, and we’ll try to answer them as times allows. The IR team, I must remind you, that will be available for any pending questions after the call. And now let’s start with the first question.

Please, Max. Make microphone?

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: No, but we need it because that’s because

Antonio Huertas, CEO, MAPFRE: of correlation.

Felipe Navarro, Deputy General Manager of Finance Area, MAPFRE: For the translation, we need the microphone. We

Fernando Mata, Group CFO, MAPFRE: need it. And also there is a streaming.

Moderator/Facilitator: Good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. And before I do anything else, Fernando, thank you very much and best of luck in your future life. I have two questions. One has to do with motor in Iberia.

I would like to ask you, what are your expectations? How do you think the portfolio is going to evolve? Because we saw that in the fourth quarter, there was a drop. Are you expecting stability in 2025? Or do you think you’re going to continue to lose clients?

And what are the average increases in premiums that we can expect for 2025? And my second question, Mafray, January is over. I would imagine most renewals have been signed. So could you give us a little bit of granularity regarding expectations for 2025?

Respondent, MAPFRE: Okay. I’ll start. As far as our auto business is concerned, in Spain specifically, we are well, we remain optimistic as far as our portfolio retainment capacity, we believe. We believe we are being very conservative. We are adjusting our premiums, but we are adapting ourselves on a bespoke manner and we’re trying to offset it as best as possible.

This new business has been affected for all companies because other competitors are doing the same. They’re protecting their portfolio and they’re trying to be kinder to customers who’ve been loyal for years when compared to others. New production fees are higher and this really makes getting these customers more difficult. The portfolio we’ve lost, we’re talking about 1% to twenty twenty four, one hundred and 70 thousand, one hundred and 80 thousand policies is something we were looking for because these are profiles we don’t want. Part of the fleet market is less profitable and well, we’ve got customers who didn’t want to accept the fees, but we believe that we shouldn’t keep on losing our relevant portfolio, we believe that we should the first six months until we stabilize everything will be closer to our global ratio.

Our average premium figures, I don’t know. Yes, I know the figure we mentioned throughout the presentation, the average premium grew by 9%. And as we’ve said, when we think of the future, we’ll adapt it to the future based on prices and exogenous factors. But there’s no fixed rate. This is something we see on a case by case basis.

And we’ve got a very diversified business and usually they have customers have several policies hard with us and it goes, it changes. So as far as MAPFRE RE is concerned, we’re very optimistic. We are wrapping up with the renewal for January. Most of our business is the group and this is MAPFRE RE, non group. So we believe that our non group business has kept on increasing reasonably, and we’ve reached the maximum and we’ve been able to manage this in 8%, nine %.

And we’ve managed to we’ve had good results. So we believe that MAPFRE’s margins after is going to be very positive when we ignore the business volatility. Any impact we can have if I can guarantee that the California fires, while very important for the American market, $30,000,000,000 40 billion dollars for MAPFRE, it’s a reasonable figure. It’s not going to really endanger our earnings for this year. And I think we had a comment on Dana.

You asked about Dana? No? Okay. Maybe. Okay.

For the next person. Okay. If you allow me

Moderator/Facilitator: I think the question is results for the fourth quarter, Iberia, a minor technical loss. What is the impact of the Dana flash flood? And are there any other one off events that we would believe have affected us in that quarter? When we addressed the market, we talked about 27,000,000, but perhaps we do want to add a little bit of flavor regarding the flash flood, Dana.

Respondent, MAPFRE: Well, Dana overall is the biggest catastrophe in Spain. It was laser focused in an era in Valencia, as you all know. And the impact to insurance can go over €3,000,000,000. When I talk about insurance, I’m including the consortium which absorbs about 95% of these losses. This is a public private partnership that we have here in Spain and which allows us for most damage caused by this climate event are covered by this consortium, which does not have enough funds to face these losses.

In MAPFRE, we’re talking about $34,000,000 of impact of direct impact between direct and reinsurance. So it’s basically residual and it will have no impact on our account.

Moderator/Facilitator: All right. Thank you. Next (LON:NXT) question, please. Francisco from Elantra. And thank you for taking our questions.

Congratulations to Fernando and to Jose Luis. Yes. So my first question has to do with motor in Spain and in The United States Of America. Last year, we began the year thinking about technical profitability being a possibility at some point towards the end of ’twenty four. As time passed, we waited until maybe the beginning of twenty five.

So the question is, when will we see these two markets being profitable? What is the trade off? Premiums, policies, what can we expect? How, when will we see a more normalized profitability in these two markets?

Respondent, MAPFRE: Without giving away any specific facts, I can say that we are very optimistic when it comes to in The States, we believe we already have a reasonable size even bigger than what we had before the pandemic. Having a combined ratio in The States of about 100 is very reasonable and very common given the environment’s maturity and the competitiveness we have. And this is a better situation than we had before the pandemic because while this is really means we can have a reasonably good profitability, especially in North America given our rates going up. And while it’s one of the highest we’ve ever had in this area, So it’s been one of the highest ROEs and we believe that we had no specific amendment. We said we would improve throughout 2024 and we’ve improved two basis points our combined ratio.

So maybe we’ve been over cautious than what we expected. So a solid increase or solid deviations when it comes to personal, not only in frequency, but the impact that Fernando mentioned. And so we’ve got the reference, which has been increasing in the last three years, and which given the scale it well, the scale varies from company from company. The market has shown what Efea has published, which in the last part of the year, the combined ratio of the auto combined ratio worsened. So we still have the market still has to absorb these impacts, which as everybody knows, these increases take place whenever there’s a sentence or a transaction and that can be years after the policy was under assigned.

So I can advance that at the start of the year, we have already seen an increase in our combined ratio here in Spain.

Moderator/Facilitator: Thank you very much. I have two questions which have been posed by persons who are not here physically. Alex Mackenzie and Paso Jada from Banco Sabadell, They have the same question, basically. That degree of prudence that we’ve talked about, which we have taken into account when talking about reserves for the auto business, they would like to know what the forecast is that as per the combined ratio. I think that that’s been answered.

But the follow-up question is do we still have the ambition to reduce the combined ratio below 100% in autos? And looking more into the future, a possible combined ratio would be between 95%, say 96, this for the longer term. Fernando, please.

Respondent, MAPFRE: Yes. If you allow me, Antonio, I would like to add to what I’ve said throughout the presentation. And as Antonio said, ever since the accident takes place until we had the bodily injury estimates, there will be some time. There are claims with neurological damage like this can take years. So there’s an offset with the pay.

So 2020 claim, if the final report we received in 2024, we pay on the 2024 Baremo, as we call it, scale, which we pay in 2024. We didn’t expect this to have such an important impact. It’ll explain why for MAPFRE later specifically. And we’ve had some negative deviations and this has led us to reinforcing our prudency very carefully, which is why I’m saying the which is why I’m talking about previous year’s ratio on this one. So I believe that the underlying we don’t have a specific date of about 102%.

This prudential image is very difficult to divide it on a year by year claim basis, but we reinforced in April. Sorry, in the fourth quarter, that’s a prudence we undertook. So I’ll give you an example. We usually don’t discuss, which is very clear, our generic provision, the IVR, non declared, but well, in an auto exposure, which reduces risk, well, we’ve increased it from $140,000,000 to $190,000,000.50000000 dollars ever since 2023 to 2024. Only as far as cars are concerned.

That’s two points in our combined ratio. I don’t want you to think that there are two points in the combined ratio that are ex, just that we’ve been very cautious and we have to keep on monitoring actions to see how these costs evolve. And why MAPFRE? Well, our claim retention is very high. We’ve got a very high priority.

We’re very aware in the business that there are companies medium and higher size which have an XL and they’ve got a priority of $2,000,000 to 0 point something million. So above that, all cost is the reinsurer It’s down to the reinsurer us given our size and our capital position and our risk diversification. We’ve got a higher level of retention, so all deviation remains. I would like to apologize for all these technicalities, but I think it was worth our time to clearly explain where the underlying combined ratio comes this 102 okay.

Moderator/Facilitator: Thank you very much. We had questions from Carlos Peixoto from Caixa. These improvements that we’ve seen vis a vis other market players, why is market at a different level, if you will? I think that you’ve answered beautifully when you’ve addressed the issue of impact and reinsurance. Ladies and gentlemen, more questions perhaps?

All right then. Yes, there seems to be a hand up there. Yes. Juan Pablo Lopez from Santander (BME:SAN). I have a question.

It has to do with capital management and EMEA. What do you think the future holds? Perhaps something might crop up in Germany? Might that be of interest? And then the use of capital, what do you think is more attractive?

A bank assurance agreement, a specific region perhaps? Or are you going to continue to focus on EMEA?

Respondent, MAPFRE: Well, our bet on EMEA is we don’t believe that Spain is part of European Middle East and Africa. We’ve reduced our presence to Turkey, Malta, Germany, Italy and that was what we believed and those are gave us reasonably good results. And we’ve got Germany’s auto, which is, you know, it’s a critical situation. And well, that’s what we’re working on. We won’t leave Germany.

We’ve always believed that Germany was a strategic option that should go further with no specific landmine, but we believe that we’ve got 1,000,000 vehicles in Sherwood. It’s a company with we already have a brand and we’ve got good presence. And what we have to do is we have to profitable it. The German market is very cyclical. It’s on the bad part of the cycle, which we see every six to eight years.

We have to power through and we’ve got better expectations for 2025 as we saw with Italy. Italy, Italy’s auto cost was affected earlier, and we’ve been patient and are to keep on improving little by little. So our appetite our local appetite to manage capital in the future, as we’ve said, is the markets where we find ourselves, we’re very comfortable and we would like wherever we are to improve our alliances with distributors and, well, other businesses. We’ve got important business markets like Brazil, Mexico, The U. S, Germany come the future and Spain.

Spain is a very important market for us. It’s 30%, thirty something percent of our business, but we should aspire to bank insurance product, bank insurance product that really helps us to be more multichannel than we already are.

Moderator/Facilitator: We have a question that comes from remote. Could you talk about Dana Auto, General Insurance, MAPFRE RE? I think that we’ve already provided information, EUR 27,000,000, as we said. Iberia, another EUR 7,000,000 for MAPFRE RE. So the total impact is of approximately EUR 34,000,000.

And then Iberia basically is divided in well, first, agro, combined agro, because of the hail, then everything that is a result of water, rainfall, so auto and so on. And I believe that perhaps the most important impact has to do with the combined diagro, frankly. The the rest are lesser. They’re important, of course, and especially if you accumulate, well, that adds up to those 27,000,000 that we’ve talked about before. And as to a different area, let’s talk about Brazil.

Paso Jada asks about the combined ratio of agro and this independently. And perhaps more specifically, do we believe that new legislation, especially in the insurance sector, will they affect the competitive horizon of the insurance market in Brazil? What would you say to that?

Respondent, MAPFRE: Well, since we’re talking Brazil, I believe that the combined ratio, Agro, and you correct me if I’m wrong, I we’re talking about fifty, fifty something. Yeah. And it is true what we’ve been discussing the last couple of years that at some point, it should worsen. But the fact of the matter is that the last two years have been much better than we expected. And this leads us to believe that 2025 could be better, so could be different.

So it is true that last year, there was a law to protect the agro business, which was enacted very late July 2024, where in other years, it’s usually approved in March. So that really pushed the schedule back. And I think that all expectations towards Brazil in 2025 lead us to believe that this quarter will be a good quarter for Agro. And we expect that the Brazilian economy grow backed by this business, by this sector and private business. And something else we have to add is an increase in interest rates, which could lead us to a point where a lot of people don’t want to fund this package we mentioned earlier, which is basically three components.

So we’ve got life, we’ve got real estate property and well, agro. But what we expect for 2025 is for this trend to continue. But it is true that in the case of Brazil, there are two cases in favor. One of them is the interest rate, which we’ve got the Celic as a reference, which has grown. The Central Bank has increased and we could reach 5.25 points, 15.25 points and it will obviously have tailwinds on our financial point from a financial standpoint.

And something we’ve mentioned throughout the presentation was the devaluing of the Brazil Real, which was of about 16%. And this has been affected by the new presidency, by the new administration, the Fed. And what we see in the well, probably the real instead of depreciating will appreciate by about 5%. So we take a look at this. We have to take a look at the net impact, but we are we believe we’re relatively optimistic that this trend can continue.

Okay. And I’m going to wrap up with the combined ratio for the Agro business is very, very good. And it is volatile, of course, and so far we could be affected by weather and climate events. But most of the business, we share our fate with the Brazilian bank and they receive 75% of the profits and 75% of earnings and negative impacts. And the reinsurance policy we have there is more than enough to ensure that this volatility and the earnings that affect MAPFRE is very limited and so that we can keep on getting reasonable earnings, especially in more adverse situation?

Thank you very much, Antonio. They were asking Carlos Peixoto and Alex McKenzie from BNP were asking about this. What was the solidity of The U. S. Things.

But I think you’ve offered a wonderful response. And well, these are business lines with wonderful profit margins.

Moderator/Facilitator: Carlos Pescioto from Caixa has another question. He would like us to address the issue of the combined ratio of MAPFRE REIS, which was under 90% in the fourth quarter if we see them individualized. And he asked also, is there a release of reserves in this fourth quarter? We’ve been talking about that Prudential (LON:PRU) margin. We’ve been talking about being in the upper portion of those intervals.

And the question is, what should the combined ratio of MAPFRE RE be, sustainably speaking, in the long term?

Respondent, MAPFRE: I’ll answer myself. Well, what we’ve done this fourth quarter, we’ve kept on with the reinforcing of the prudential margin. We find ourselves in the 90 percentile, which is the highest that we have in the IFRS memorandum this fourth quarter has had few events and that’s why we had these earnings. And the what we have, this has added one, one point five basis points overall gross to motor. So we find ourselves in 93 something percent.

We are underlying in 92%, which is it’s been a wonderful year. And the round rate, the ground rate, the run rate should be good. And it’s been a lack of catastrophes, relevant catastrophes in the insurance amount. Dana, for example, was two twenty casualties. So we should have a lower run rate to that one, to the underlying combined run rate, which we mentioned, which is 92.

Okay.

Moderator/Facilitator: Very good. Thank you very much, Fernando. I have a question now from pass no. Two questions from Paso Jada. The first question has to do with the year 02/2004.

Would those numbers be valid in 2526? They were very good, as Antonio mentioned in the presentation. And the combined ratio of general, that 81%, general insurance, 81%, it’s good. Is it exceptional though? And sustainably speaking, what would we think of in the long term?

Respondent, MAPFRE: Well, related to this question, if this is sustainable, we’re working on ensuring that these figures can be improved. That’s what we want to do within the group. If 81 is exceptional property, well, that’s something that we probably have to deal with if we regress to the mean, of course, but of course, auto should improve. So the net effect could be positive for us. Yes, we’ve had a wonderful behavior and exceptional in The U.

S. Homeowners last year was slightly worse. The fee changes we implemented, which were done quick and fast, had an impact, a positive impact on homeowners. The East Coast and The States has been very good. It’s been very cold, but it hasn’t snowed as much as other years.

So there weren’t any huge damages and we’ve got a big portfolio and we will always be affected by weather events even though we’re covered by reinsurance and well, what we can do to deal with different businesses and property and casualties is very positive. Okay.

Moderator/Facilitator: We don’t seem to have further questions via remote. Perhaps there are questions here from the meeting room, from the auditorium. That is not the case. So once again, thank you all very, very much. Maybe Antonio, maybe Fernando wants to close the session?

Well, yes. Thank you. First, thank you once again. Thanks to all of you for being with us. Thank you for depositing your trust in MAPFRE, and thank you for the opportunity that you give us.

You are with us. You analyze what our weaknesses may be. Insurance activities, by definition, are volatile, complex, under tremendous supervision. And those of you who are experts know that it’s relatively easy to follow, but sometimes it’s much more complex than what we see at a first glance. So we depend on external events, right, which may condition our earnings.

Our degree of prudency and confidence is high now. It has been high in the past also, but indeed, everything we have done to implement the necessary measures to correct whatever possible deviations might have existed are forceful. It’s true that in auto, we have much to do in Spain, in Germany, to a lesser degree, in Italy, in Spain for the most part, and we believe that it will only be good news in upcoming months. The year 2025 is going to be the year in which we’re going to find ourselves, not in the necessarily the best of all possible conditions, but in a much better condition. We will no longer be dragged down.

We are confident that our provisions and our tariffs are what they need to be in order to deal with the current scenario, which is resulting in notable increases well beyond inflation levels when we talk about vendors, when we talk about sentences. So again, thank you. And as I said before, Fernando, thank you very much for your many years with the company. Of course, Fernando is going to continue to work with us. He will be non executive, but will continue to contribute, as I say.

And those of us who remain on board will definitely do our utmost to guarantee the sustainability of our business and of our commitment because we are committed. We are not here just today. We’re here to stay. We’re not into speculation. And again, we trust the model that we have built, which adds value, which does definitely add value.

All stakeholders, of course, and perhaps more especially shareholders, this is something that we have insisted on because those dividends that we’re paying out this year is essential. And that dividend will continue to improve if our earnings continue to improve as we expect in the upcoming years. Thank you all very much.

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