Earnings call transcript: Mosaic Q2 2025 results miss expectations, stock falls

Mosaic Company reported its Q2 2025 earnings, revealing a significant miss in earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.51, falling short of the expected $0.72, marking a surprise of -29.17%. Revenue also missed estimates, coming in at $3.01 billion against the forecasted $3.16 billion, a surprise of -4.75%. Following the announcement, Mosaic’s stock fell by 11.32% in regular trading hours, closing at $31.84, down from the previous close of $35.68. According to InvestingPro analysis, despite the recent decline, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics, with strong YTD returns of over 47%.

Key Takeaways

• Mosaic’s Q2 EPS and revenue significantly missed market expectations.
• The company’s stock declined by over 11% following the earnings release.
• Mosaic reported a net income of $411 million, a turnaround from a net loss in the previous year.
• Production guidance for phosphate and potash was adjusted, reflecting market conditions.
• Mosaic Biosciences showed promising growth, with revenues more than doubling in the first half.

Company Performance

Mosaic’s Q2 2025 performance showed mixed results. The company reported a net income of $411 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $162 million in Q2 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $566 million, slightly down from $584 million in the same quarter last year. The company benefited from foreign exchange effects and market value gains, but faced extraordinary expenses totaling over $60 million.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $3.01 billion, down from the forecast of $3.16 billion.
• Earnings per share: $0.51, compared to the expected $0.72.
• Net income: $411 million, up from a net loss of $162 million in Q2 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $566 million, down from $584 million in Q2 2024.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Mosaic’s actual EPS of $0.51 was below the forecasted $0.72, resulting in a negative surprise of 29.17%. Revenue also fell short, with a 4.75% deviation from expectations. This marks a notable miss compared to the company’s historical performance, where it often met or exceeded forecasts.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Mosaic’s stock dropped significantly, closing down 11.32% at $31.84. This decline places the stock closer to its 52-week low of $22.36, reflecting investor disappointment in the earnings miss. The broader market reaction was negative, with trading volume reaching 39,520 shares in pre-market activity. Despite the recent volatility, InvestingPro notes that Mosaic has maintained dividend payments for 15 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 2.47%. The stock generally trades with low price volatility, making this decline particularly notable.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Mosaic has adjusted its phosphate production guidance to 6.9-7.2 million tons and increased potash production guidance to 9.3-9.5 million tons. The company expects strong performance in Q3, with phosphate prices guided at $700-$720 per ton and potash prices at $2.70-$2.90 per ton. Mosaic Biosciences is on track to become EBITDA positive by year-end. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a "Fair" overall financial health score of 2.35, with particularly strong scores in profitability (3.09) and price momentum (2.92). Subscribers can access 8 additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics through the Pro Research Report.

Executive Commentary

"Our work to improve asset reliability is paying off," stated CEO Bruce Bodine, emphasizing the company’s operational improvements. He also noted, "We expect to reach our Analyst Day per ton cost targets later this year," highlighting ongoing cost reduction efforts.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply Chain Issues: Potential disruptions could impact production and delivery timelines.
• Market Saturation: The global phosphate market remains tight, which could limit growth opportunities.
• Macroeconomic Pressures: Economic downturns may affect demand in key markets like India and Brazil.
• Extraordinary Expenses: Continued high non-cash expenses could impact profitability.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the nature of the extraordinary expenses and their one-time impact. Questions also focused on production challenges and asset reliability improvements, as well as credit challenges in the Brazilian market. Mosaic clarified its potash production strategy and market demand dynamics, addressing concerns about future growth prospects.

Full transcript - The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company’s Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. And now I’ll turn the call over to Mr. Jason Tremblay.

Please go ahead.

Jason Tremblay, Unspecified Executive, Mosaic Company: Thank you, and welcome to our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will then cover the market update and Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review the financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then open the floor for questions. We will be making forward looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results.

They are based on management’s beliefs and expectations as of today’s date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non GAAP measures.

Now I’d like to turn the

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: call over to Bruce. Good morning.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Thank you for joining our call. I’ll start with an overview of our performance and outlook, then Jenny will provide insight into the markets and Luciano will discuss details of our earnings. Our key messages for today are: first, our hard work to improve operating performance is paying off. It’s apparent in our Brazil results and we expect to see improvements in our U. S.

Phosphate production business now that the vast majority of our work to enhance reliability is complete. Second, the market environment remains strong with tight supply leading to very strong phosphate margins and rising potash prices. In fact, we raised our full year potash production to capture strong demand. Third, the cost reduction efforts we’ve been pursuing in Brazil have led to a strong first half of the year and we expect earnings growth to accelerate in the remainder of 2025. And fourth, our extensive market access continues to be a key competitive advantage for Mosaic.

The current market situation demonstrates this point. With some unevenness in The Americas, there is still more than enough demand around the world for all the tons we can produce. We have the agility to send tons to markets where demand is strongest. To cover our second quarter results, we generated net income of $411,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $566,000,000 compared with a net loss of $162,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $584,000,000 in the same quarter of 2024. The factors that drove earnings lower are behind us.

And across the business, we are poised for a strong 2025. Potash and phosphate markets are tight and we are maximizing production to benefit fully. We see no signs of a second half price reset that has occurred in the past few years. The global phosphate market has been tight for two years now and we do not expect that to change in the near to medium term even with the additional supply we expect to provide to the market. All of the supply and demand dynamics we’ve been discussing remain in effect.

While China recently resumed exports at a low level, Chinese exports remain restricted as producers there meet domestic demand for agriculture and growing demand for industrial uses. Global farmer demand for phosphate fertilizers remains robust. As an example, Indian importers have come back to the market with increased government support and are now working to meet two years’ worth of pent up demand. Also, remember there is not much additional capacity that is expected to come to the market over the next few years and announced projects take quite some time to come online. Put simply, there is not enough phosphate fertilizer available to meet demand, and we expect this dynamic to continue well into 2026, even if there is some demand deferral in The Americas.

In our business, our work assets to maximize future production took longer than we expected, but there is no more planned maintenance that would impede us from reaching our target run rate of 8,000,000 tons per year. To provide more detail, our extraordinary level of work is complete at Riverview in Louisiana. Our Bartow plant has been operating at target rates for a couple months. And in New Wales, where installation of our final new gypsum pumping station was delayed, all three new stations are complete. We are now returning to our normal cycle for turnarounds.

Our third quarter sales volume guidance of 1,800,000 to 2,000,000 tons reflects our confidence in our strengthened assets. Our annual guidance for phosphate production is now 6,900,000 tons to 7,200,000 tons reflecting the more extensive maintenance downtime we experienced in June and July. It’s also important to note that as our volumes improve, so do our unit costs. We expect to reach our Analyst Day per ton cost targets later this year. In potash, the market has evolved from balanced to tight.

Maintenance activities at multiple producers around the world have reduced near term supply and demand remains strong underpinned in part by continuing high palm oil prices in Southeast Asia. We are running hard to meet demand and benefit from the market conditions. The second quarter turnaround at Esterhazy is complete and we plan to run our Colonsay mine at least through the end of this year. As a result and to meet very strong global demand, we have increased our annual potash production guidance to 9,300,000 to 9,500,000 tons. We’re feeling very good about our business in Brazil too.

While credit issues are persisting, we expect fertilizer demand to remain strong and supply limited. As a result, we anticipate EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to push higher from the strong levels we’ve seen in the past two quarters. Before Jenny provides more details on the markets, I’d like to highlight the important competitive advantage our market access brings to Mosaic. The new Pomeranci facility, which was inaugurated last month, adds 1,000,000 tons of distribution capacity in the fast growing Northern region and reinforces our market leading presence in the country. We also continue to leverage our market access to grow the Mosaic Biosciences business.

First half revenues for Biosciences more than doubled compared with a year ago. We expect Mosaic Biosciences to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA beginning in the fourth quarter. Finally, a note on capital allocation. We’re continuing to make progress on our work to reclaim capital so that we can deploy it in pursuit of better returns. The hydro float project in the new Pomeranci facility are good examples of this.

We hope to have news on the processes we’ve announced including Carlsbad and Tukorri in the near future. At the same time, we are expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year, which would allow us to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders. All in all, we have made important and substantial progress this year, and we are in excellent position for a very strong 2025. Now I’ll pass the call to Jenny.

Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, Mosaic Company: Ruth highlighted strong fertilizer market fundamentals. Before I dive deeper into the phosphate and potash market, I’d like to address the recent pressure on Ag commodities and why we are still up it on global agriculture. Commodity market has been pressured by both trade and the macro uncertainties, as well as the record Sulfony harvest in Brazil and the potential for a record U. S. Crop this fall.

However, as we mentioned before, Ag fundamentals remain positive across much of the world, including in many of the key geographies where we operate. Global ag market continuously to be supported by strong demand, including supportive new biofuel policies in India, Brazil, Indonesia and The U. S, which supports ag market in long run. The headwinds we see in certain geographies related to fertilizer affordability will necessarily trim some demand, for example, in The Americas. But this provides a tailwind to demand in the future as growers will need to replenish their soil nutrients.

Specifically on phosphate, prices have steadily climbed this year with a strong demand that is constrained by supply. And despite higher prices and the lack of available supply that may result in some demand deferral, global shipments are expected to approach a new record. The most notable factor on supply side remains China, which have returned seasonally to the export market. Though we anticipate a further reduction in high analysis phosphate export this year. As the country limits export quarters in support of the domestic market and industrial phosphate production.

On the demand side, government financial support has energized the Indian buying at higher prices. While we expect growth in India shipments this year, supply constraints will likely leave India face another year of pent up demand that bodes well as we move towards 2026. In North America, summer fuel was earlier than expected given the empty pipeline and fewer imports. We’re largely sold out for the quarter and at higher values than spring season. Import supply is down around 20% year over year given tariffs on most of the origins, and these volumes are expected to stay subdued.

This means that even there is meaningful demand deferral at the grower level this fall, there should be ample demand for Mosaic’s products. While in Brazil, we’re expecting another fertilizer shipment record this year with inputs up sharply in the first half to meet the demand. With no significant price reset expected in the near term, we expect stripping margins to remain elevated as sulfur prices appears to have stabilized and ammonia looks like it could soften through the balance of the year. Longer term, we anticipate elevated stripping margin will continue as solid fundamentals carry into next year. As I mentioned, we like to again see pent up demand as we enter 2026, driven by demand deferral this year and limited channel inventories.

On the supply side, new capacity takes time to build and won’t feature meaningfully until at least 2027. On top of this, we expect China to continue to reduce export availability as independent projection for LFP demand through 2030 exceed even our own projection. In the case of potash, the market shifted from balanced to tight in the first half of this year. And we anticipate prices to hold around current levels driven by what could again be a record global shipment. Global supply is now filling the effect of the nonstop maintenance in Russia and Belarus.

The slowdown in Laos expansion and lower production from China and Chile. Regarding demand, U. S. Customers indicate it will be about normal for fall season despite prices that are higher than last year, given they still find good value at this level. Like phosphate, offshore potash imports are also trading last year, further tightening the domestic market.

Brazilian demand has also proved resilient in this higher priced environment with inventories near normal despite higher input so far this year. Finally, annual contract in China and India was signed about $65 per ton higher than last year. With this expected healthy baseload of contract market offtake plus a continued strong pull from Southeast Asia, where solid grower economics are supported by elevated palm oil prices. We believe that supply and demand will remain tight in the near term limiting any late year seasonal price resets that usually we experience. Let me pass things over to Luciano, where he will dive deeper into financial result, our strategies and the capital allocation.

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: Good morning. This was a very unusual quarter in terms of results with a lot of noise. We encourage you to see the underlying performance of the business through the numbers and also see why we believe Q3 performance will be amongst the strongest in many, many quarters. First on net income, the notables were actually on the positive side. The U.

Dollar lost value compared to most currencies, including the Brazilian real, the Canadian dollar. So there was a reversal of the foreign exchange effects experienced in previous quarters, a total of $220,000,000 In addition to that, we had a gain of $216,000,000 in the market value of our modern shares. And with these two main effects, net income was $411,000,000 compared to a net loss of $162,000,000 a year before. Second, on EBITDA. Well, you saw we had these larger than usual provisions that amounted to more than $60,000,000 on a net basis.

Most of these did not have any cash effect in the quarter. And some also will not have cash effects going forward such as, for example, the bad debt expense, the inventory adjustments, one asset write off, but some will some will have a cash component. For example, we recorded $8,000,000 in environmental reserves for future remediation at our Takua De Porres mine. We recorded 4,000,000 for legal reserves. So we had a number of net and favorable items that all came together this quarter.

And while we always have some level of this kind of activity, it was quite large. We don’t expect to repeat this level in Q3 and Q4. Just a note on bad debt, the $30,000,000 bad debt expense in Mosaic Fiesta Desertes, we had with a single customer. It is 90% backed by insurance, so we expect recoveries going forward. Indeed, for example, this quarter, we collected $15,000,000 related to a bad debt expense booked in Q3 last year.

Also on EBITDA, you can see that all the work of turnarounds that we talked extensively cost us money, a lot of money. We have been speaking about $100,000,000 overall aggregate investment to increase reliability. But part of that, you can see in these elevated idle and turnaround expenditures, some of the work just can’t be capitalized, has to be expensed. Not a surprise, a significant part of the increase in idle and turnaround expenses came from phosphates. And why is that?

We not only extended the duration of our turnarounds, which impacted our production volumes, which impacted our fixed cost absorption, but we also spent more actual dollars in repairs and maintenance. These works, another reminder, are all with the goal to derisk not just our second half performance, but well into the future as we return to a sustained and more normal production output level. So therefore, we also expect Q3 idle and turnaround expenses to decline from q two to get to a more normalized level because the work has been completed to improve asset reliability. So now the bright part, Process, for example. You know that everything hinges upon the volumes.

As we said, 85% of our cash cost of conversion is fixed. So given the low production volumes, the unit cost metric of $126 per ton in Q2 behaved exactly as it should. It is above our Investor Day target of $95 to 100 per ton, but only because of low production volumes. On a positive note, cash mine rock costs in Florida are the lowest in ten quarters, dollars 51 per ton against an average of $55 per ton in 2024. You’re not seeing it yet because of the low volumes of finished product.

But these results will flow into the blended rock costs once finished product volumes come back. In potash, the cash production cost per ton was $75 up from the same quarter last year, again due to less fixed cost absorption and lower volume, but it was down from $78 in the first quarter. And we conducted a turnaround at Esterhazy in Q2 this year versus Q3 last year. And the shift in timing impacted a lot of metrics year over year when you compare Q2 twenty twenty five to Q2 twenty twenty four. It impacted production volumes, unit costs and turnaround in idle expenses.

So again, as in phosphates, you should expect potash Q3 turnaround in idle expenses to decline from Q2. Mosaic Fertilizantes, so far the nicest story. There, we have achieved 106,000,000 of our $150,000,000 cost reduction target. These cost reductions and the higher realized prices are behind the $150,000,000 in EBITDA. Despite the bad debt expense of $18,000,000 net of recoveries.

In Q3, with increased volumes, no further bad debt expenses and a recovery in distribution margins were bound to have an excellent quarter. The question is if we’re going to be above $200,000,000 mark or well above the $200,000,000 mark. This will depend on management of sales volumes given the credit environment. And finally, for you to better model, Mosaic Fetchit des Arts, this quarter we added disclosure on production sales volumes in the result and outlook tables in the press release. We provide margins that are earned by these tons and we provide further breakdown of these tons in the performance data sheet.

All this new disclosure hopefully will add some transparency to this segment. Back to cost reductions. We have achieved $150,000,000 cost reduction targets established last year. How? On the back of Mosaic Fetch Designs, as we discussed, and SG and A alone.

However, in SG and A, the bottom line is clouded because of the bad debt expenses and because of the non cash amortization of the large technology investment we made, and that amortization started in q three twenty twenty four. And so we also included in the appendix of the presentation a demonstration of the SG and A savings. And with this achievement, we’re now extending our goal from $150,000,000 to $250,000,000 Going forward, this additional $100,000,000 in value capture is expected to be achieved by the 2026 and will come from further cost reductions by automating administrative functions, optimizing supply chain, another cost reductions in operations, gross margin optimization and fixed cost absorption as we ramp up our production levels. So the prospects here are very, very exciting. So to conclude, quarter three EBITDA in all segments is expected to be significantly higher than last quarter.

With an extraordinary level of turnaround to improve asset health and reliability behind us, in phosphates, we expect volumes to increase, cash conversion cost per ton to decline significantly in the third quarter, turnaround in idle expenses to come down as well, and therefore, having strong EBITDA growth from Q2 to Q3. In potash, we’re pedal to the metal, increasing production, sales outlook to take advantage of favorable market conditions. And Mosaic Fertilizant will be peak sales, peak margin season in Q3. We definitely have the win at RBAC. With that operator, please open the line for questions.

Conference Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. We also ask And the first question will come from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Thank you very much and good morning everyone. Just looking at the share price performance today, I was hoping you could parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Ben, thanks for your question. I assume you wanna go through everything in Investor Day that has changed.

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: No. I just

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: want to understand why the market or why do you think the market is reacting so negatively to what seems like a couple of bumpy quarters, but nothing has really changed in terms of the main outlook since your Investor Day? That’s what I’m trying to understand.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes. Yes. No, I appreciate the question, and I appreciate your report this morning as well. I thought it was well done. Think there’s question and even I know you’ve asked this in your report on how much of this extraordinary expense that we’ve all been talking about and that we documented in Q2 is reoccurring or is transitory or extraordinary.

And I think that’s one thing because how do you kind of bake into what the underlying performance was when you normalize things. No doubt our production volume in phosphates was down from what we had in Analyst Day, and we’ve talked about that in a number of conferences. There was discoverables, particularly at New Wales on kind of our phosphates and waste disposal handling systems on all three trains that needed to be upgraded. The final upgrade, as we communicated, we tried to pull that into June, just couldn’t get the parts in time. We’re targeting to have that done in mid July.

It ended up going all the way to the July due to parts availability. So that was the biggest change from a production, although we did guide in early June of what we anticipated there. And actually, we’re right at the midpoint of guidance. But that is a definite difference in what we had in our Analyst Day numbers. As far as the extraordinary expenses, we’ve talked a lot about this and dug into kind of what is kind of average on turnaround and idle expense for our active facilities.

And although it’s not a perfect closure because idle and turnaround always has some variability to it, we feel that about $50,000,000 of that expense in phosphates particularly was kind of non normal and was truly due to the extraordinary efforts, which we’re happy to have behind us to get reliability and asset health back to where we needed to be to do exactly what we said in Analyst Day, which is to get to that 8,000,000 ton run rate. So, everything else is actually trending quite good. Potash costs are a little bit higher with FX and the production mix with more run time from Calonce, particularly in quarter two with Esterhazy being down the horse rather in Q2 versus Q3, which is maybe more normal for turnaround. That cost difference probably was more highlighted than elevated. But listen, on Biosciences, we’re making good progress on fertilization, as Luciano just highlighted in the prerecorded section.

Really excited about what we’re seeing in the underlying performance of that. And all of our Analyst Day targets potash costs, conversion costs, as well as mined rock costs, all are trending towards exactly where we wanted them to be on Analyst Day outside of maybe a little bit of impact of FX that’s a little bit more than what we would have thought at that moment in March earlier this year. So Ben, it’s a great question. I think it’s the phosphate volumes and hey, when is executions going to come to bear? And how much of this large extraordinary expense was reoccurring?

And how much of that was kind of one time.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research: Great. Thanks so much for taking my question. A simple yet complex question. What was your run rate roughly in July and how are we, you know, where are we trending in August and September just, you know, essentially what’s underscoring your confidence into the balance of the year. And when I take a look at slide eight as kind of the the foundation for those comments perhaps, it looks like Bartow’s pretty much has been there where it needs to be.

New Wales and Riverview are in the process of just, you know, kind of getting there. And Louisiana looks a little uncertain. So if you could just hit on those remarks and piece that together for us, it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yeah, Chris. Appreciate the question. Thanks as always. So in July, run rate was not what we were hoping for. Primarily, what I said earlier is because of the large the delay by about two weeks on the third jet pumping system at New Wales.

And listen, New Wales is our horse. Now that that is complete, we’re seeing exactly as we saw in the other two trains of that not being an issue and getting the elevated rates. It’s still early in August. And listen, this went all the way to the end of the month. So we don’t have a lot of free and clear run rate into August.

But what we’re seeing in the numbers is very encouraging. Louisiana actually is more encouraging than you may realize. Know our graphic, how we’re trying to represent asset health is an interesting way to do that, but actually really encouraged by the numbers that we’re seeing in Louisiana. And as you said, Bartow is kind of humming along right at its 2,000,000 ton annualized capacity without much of a hiccup. Riverview, all the major work is done, and we’re excited in what the opportunity is that we’re seeing there.

And we just need to now that maintenance activities, there’s nothing scheduled more in extraordinary work, is to really just now that that is out of the way, as Luciano said in potash, putting the pedal down in phosphate and stringing together days, weeks, months. And we’re very encouraged by what we’re seeing. Hence, our guidance at 1,800,000 to 2,000,000 ton range. That’s the confidence we have in what we’re seeing and the confidence we have in what we’ve executed and got behind us going forward.

Conference Operator: Your next question will come from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Luciano, Bruce, team. Okay. So we have $50,000,000, idle and turnaround one off costs in q two.

You’ve been very clear about that in lots of different ways. You say that those costs are going down in q three. I think what investors and shareholders really want to understand is, you know, these $50,000,000 of extraordinary costs, how do these exactly ramp down? If you can give us as much granular as possible, is that $30,000,000 in q three, dollars 10,000,000 in q four, dollars 0 in q one? Is it zero in q four?

Please tell us.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Joel, I’m not gonna answer it the way you’re asking because we don’t guide on this on a quarter basis. But let me try this. As we’ve looked back historically at turnaround costs and phosphates as an example, they’re in the ZIP code on an annualized basis of 100,000,000 to $110,000,000 It is lumpy because unit operations have different schedules for phosphates, granulation and sulfuric. So it’s not that easy, and you will always have one quarter higher than another year over year because of that kind of lumpiness. But on average, I think a good number to model for an annualized basis for phosphates is, about 100,000,000 to $110,000,000 In potash, that number is going be a different number.

I know you asked about phosphates particularly. And then you can look at the history there. I don’t think the history is different in potash. But again, you look at what we had at Esterhazy, Q2, we executed a turnaround this year in Q2 rather than what is more traditionally Q3. And that was to try to do the hydrofloat tie in so that we had the 400,000 tonnes of additional capacity going into the back half of the year due to that high return capital project.

So I know you’d like a perfect answer. There’s no way to give you one. But hopefully, giving you a little more color on an annualized basis allows you to better appreciate what to expect on a more normalized ongoing basis.

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: Joe, I’d listen, I don’t know if you had the time to go through it, but the presentation on our website has one slide, which is slide nine, which gives the actual numbers for q two twenty four, q one twenty five, q two twenty five. Then you can do some comparisons and you’re to reach That’s the question. That’s the question I’m asking. We’re going to be doing Q3.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Andrew Wong with RBC. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Hey, thank you for taking my questions. Good morning. So maybe a couple of things here on the phosphate side again. First is I think we’re about to enter the typical hurricane season in Florida. So I’m just curious, like, what has Mosaic done to harden the assets against any potential weather disruptions?

How much does that factor into the Q3 guide? And then just a general question, and I guess Bruce has kind of answered it already, but, like, you know, when we think back to the earlier parts of this year, it sounded like a lot of the work was had to be completed by q one. But then there were other things that seem like they needed more work, like, for example, the new gypsum handling systems. I don’t think it was something that was previously mentioned or that we really, had discussed. So I’m just kinda curious, like, as you’re thinking about production going forward, like, are there any items at all that still need any major maintenance, that should support that run rate?

Or are all those things complete? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yeah, Andrew. Appreciate that. Take a you got two part question there. Hurricane season, yeah, is approaching, and, you know, we do preparation and and do crisis planning and practice on that front every single year leading into hurricane season, and that has been complete. As far as hardening the assets, we’ve

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: looked

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: at our motor control centers, particularly those on the coastal areas given storm surge potential and made sure that those sit above, you know, kind of that flood stage probability given categories of storms. We’ve also gone through with our insurance carriers and made modifications due to their recommendations for wind improvements in a lot of our stationary buildings, particularly our warehouses with better venting and things like that to allow wind to pass through more easily rather than having a higher potential ripping off a roof or damaging a roof. So there’s a number and host of things that we’ve done, again, looking at storm surge, looking at wind. The the difficult thing that is hard to harden for and what we do in preparation going into hurricane season is making sure we have free board in our gypsum stacks and clay settling areas is just accounting for how much rain you could get in any given storm. And if you went back to some of the storms we had late last year, one in a thousand year storm event is awfully hard to prepare for.

So there’s billions of gallons of water that can end up, you know, falling on our areas that we have to manage, and then we have to deal with that water. But we go to great lengths to make sure our freeboard and there’s regulatory requirements around those as well with our state agencies that we have to comply with going into hurricane season. Then putting in power back up, pumping back up for all sorts of contingencies is part of our game plan every single year. And then second part of your question was

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: phosphate. Any major Oh, any yeah.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Andrew, great question. We talk about that always, and we do with our reliability maintenance folks, you know, assessments of each of our unit operations. We don’t see any obvious issues, in the remainder of the asset base. So for us, any planned maintenance for asset health and reliability is truly now behind us from an execution standpoint. Those gypsum stack pumping systems, maybe we didn’t talk about it in an earnings call, but in Q1, but we did we’ve talked about it in a number of different investor conferences.

As we debottleneck sulfuric acid and put the pedal down, particularly at New Wales, we ran into because we haven’t run-in four years at these rates issues in phosphoric acid particularly on our gypsum handling. As the rock quality has changed over the last four or five years, we’re actually making more gypsum per ton of rock feed than we had historically. So those systems just simply were a bottleneck that they didn’t used to be, and it was not something that we knew until we got to actually trying to push to full rates. So that ended up being a throttle limiter at New Wales, and we had to actually replace all three phosphoric acid train, give some pumping systems between April, May, June and July.

Conference Operator: Don’t see anything else

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: like that at any of our other facilities as we’ve ramped up throughout the last several weeks.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson, Analyst, Scotiabank: Thanks very much. Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the costs of imports of phosphates into The United States on some kind of percentage or per ton basis?

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes, Jeff. Thanks. And listen, talk about a dynamic subject is that it seems to be changing on a almost weekly basis these days again. But in general, imports of phosphate have a 10% tariff on top of those depending on the location, but most locations have that. There’s nothing on Russia as of today, but, you know, the threat that, outside of the CBD, their CBD duties.

But as far as tariffs go, you’ve seen in the press, as we all have, that there is a threat of, the Russia Ukraine ceasefire doesn’t happen, then maybe we would put more tariffs on Russia. But as of today, there’s none. But Jenny’s got a little more detail that I’ll let her go into. Jen?

Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, Mosaic Company: Sure. Jeff, I I think Bruce talked about the the tariff impact to the market, which actually indirectly supported the market in The US as this reduced input. Year to date, we see around 20% of import reduction for both p and k. It looks like it’s just going to continue. In terms of the direct impact to our own business, we our raw materials on sulfur and ammonia, sulfur majority of the sulfur for our own production in North America is coming from The Gulf, meaning there’s no impact on the on the the from from the tariff.

We do buy some solid dry sulfur from Canada, which is exempt from the USMCA agreement. In term of ammonia, majority of the ammonia that we use consume in The US are coming from two sources. One is contracted with the suppliers in in The US. The second part is our own self produced in Fostina. We do buy a small percentage of the ammonia from the market.

In this bucket, we have a very small volume coming from a Trinidad, which we won’t need to pay 10 15% of the input tariff. That volume is very small. So I would say the direct impact as of today to our cost from raw material side are probably minimal.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yeah. So, Jeff, that that’s probably more of an answer than you asked on your question, but that that gives a general tariff response on not only what’s happening to competitors coming into North America but into The U. S. But also impacts on our own business due to tariffs.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Vincent Andrews, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thank you. I’ve got a follow-up on question eight sorry, on Slide eight. That asset health target that you have of 85% to 95%, it’s just based on turnaround timing. So can you just help us better understand, 85% to 95% means it could be one or the other depending on how heavy your planned turnarounds are in a particular year. Is that correct?

And then is it also not assuming that there are any unplanned outages in the year? And is it your expectation that with all of the work that you’ve done over the past few years on a go forward basis that the amount of unplanned outages, let’s leave hurricanes aside for argument’s sake, but the amount of kind of run of the mill unplanned outages would be de minimis. Is that correct?

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Vincent, great question. And just I know this is an unusual metric. It’s not operating rate, and that was on purpose. But, yes, you you kinda nailed it. So that that pie chart will will start to open up the piece of the pie from 95 to 85 as duration I’ll use an example of sulfuric acid plant turnaround is on a three year cycle.

So in year two from the turnaround that you previously did, the asset health is starting to tick down a little bit until you hit your third year turnaround, which then it goes back to full asset health again. So it’s just a timing issue of asset health just by nature of erosion and corrosion on piping and mechanical equipment incrementally changes in any moment in time from its last turnaround. The reason it’s not 100% is that it does allow for normal unplanned downtime, which is just run of the mill stuff that happens all the time, not these extraordinary unplanned downtimes that we’ve kind of seen more prevalent in the past. So the answer is yes, you should think about it that there’s no extraordinary unplanned downtime in those numbers and we don’t anticipate that being normal on a go forward basis now that the asset health is where we’re showing on Slide eight, which is where we’re targeting given all the extraordinary efforts and spending and work that we’ve done over the last few years.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Aaron Ciccarelli with Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Aaron Ciccarelli, Analyst, Berenberg: Hello. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have a question on 50% in fact. I see that you talked about shrinking perhaps your customer base because you’re focusing more on better credit profile.

At the same time, as you are adding capacity in Parmarante, and now you’re talking about 200,000,000 or even more than $200,000,000 EBITDA for next quarter. I’d like to understand, we also have BioScience becoming EBITDA positive later in the year. How should we think about the earnings power of this business in a mid cycle scenario? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes. Aaron, thanks for the question. I know that the two may seem to conflict with each other, but it is just part of our credit or our risk management process with customers given the credit situation in Brazil. And knowing that if credit continues to be a pervasive issue with some customers, we may choose not to do business. And that’s why we have a guidance range that is probably wide as it is and that we’re saying that tend to be in Fertilizantes maybe on the lower end with that risk included.

Now that may or may not happen, but we are not going to take undue risk and I’m going let Jenny kind of talk a little bit more about that and then maybe turn it over to Luciano to talk a little bit about his view on forward look financial performance in that Fertilizantes segment given everything that’s changed fundamentally from a cost structure standpoint as well as our growth and distribution capability with Pomeranci and what we have planned over the next several years to continue to grow organically with latent capacity as the market continues to grow. So Jenny?

Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, Mosaic Company: Sure. Thanks. In terms of Brazil, I would think the credit risk are actually related to a, the macro environment, the high interest rate, but also the overall commodity prices. So as we are in the market, it is cyclical. So you you won’t see the price.

The market will come back. The extension in northern part of the country in Brazil, We’re not only looking into the current season or next season. We’re looking at the the growth of the overall agriculture expansion in that part of the market. And also we see a very the the growth itself, it is going to come along in the next few years. So is that contradictory to our smaller customer base?

I would say I would argue as the the market growth in northern part of the country, our customer growing in that part of the country as well. Especially those customers, the end users, like mega farmers and some of the major trading companies, they’re expanding their presence in the in the market. So we are growing as our customer growing and the the customers that they have much more solid credit situation growth in that market as well. So I would say it is not really contradictory. It is actually complementary as we go through that the growth journey in Brazil.

I would in terms of the bioscience, we are getting into the stage by end of the year that we’re going to be EBITDA positive. And from next year, the growth are going to to be from, the new product launches. This year, we have launched two new products already, and we have three new in the pipeline to be launched in the rest of the year. And next year, we have new product to be launched as as we’re going through regulatory process. The growth is also coming from the customers, the new customers and also new crops.

And I can I can I can prove to you that the first half of bioscience growth not only coming from new customer, new new crop, and also existing customers, those who have used our bioscience product? This year, they can see the benefit of using power code and the bypass, especially in the environment when fertilizers are more expensive, which helps them to improve the efficiency of this expensive fertilizers. So in terms of the financial projection, I would ask, Luciano to provide you, some insights. Lastly, I would also say, Luciano probably also can help, some of the, ideas on finding financial solutions in helping us navigating this credit challenged mark market environment in Brazil this year as well. Over to you.

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: So, Aaron, if you look five years from now, we have targets on the Investor Day deck to kind of reach around 13,000,000 tons of sales in Brazil. If we use, for example, our the upper end of our 30 to $40.40 dollar distribution margin, and so you get around the ballpark of 500,000,000 just for distribution. If you get to the if we want a low end for that, for example, just picking a number like $10,000,000 times the lower bound for the distribution marginal times 30, you would get to 300. So 300 to 500 would be kind of a range and an aspiration to grow into that range for just the distribution portion. We now speak also about $75 to $80 per ton on current market for the tons that we produce, which is around 4,000,000.

So get that got you another 3 to 3 to $350,000,000 for, our own tons. So you add so you you see that the earnings potential for, Mosaic Fertilizantes. And when you add also the co products, which are around $40,000,000 per quarter, could actually reach to $1,000,000,000 over the long term. And that’s definitely what we are going to pursue. We’d like to call attention as well.

We don’t disclose, but

Aaron Ciccarelli, Analyst, Berenberg: maybe in

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: the future we will. Our China business is becoming more material. So we had around $30,000,000 in the first half of this year, so we may have around $60,000,000 and there’s a potential to double or triple this number very quickly. And in Biosciences, we continue to pursue our target of $250,000,000 EBITDA longer term. The speed to which we’ll attain it is more dependent on regulatory approvals for some of our products than anything else.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from David Simons with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

David Simons, Analyst, BNP Paribas: Thank you very much. So first question, if I back out the implied specialties price from the phosphate division, then it looks like the price realization was quite low for Phosphate Specialties. Is there any reason for that? Perhaps you could talk through what happened with MicroEssentials pricing in the quarter. Could give an idea of what’s happening on the ground in Brazil?

So you mentioned the change to government financing support for farmers. We’ve seen potash prices stall a little bit in Brazil over the past few weeks. So I don’t know, it’s interesting to hear your very positive outlook for First Pesantas at the same time as talking about potentially some headwinds in the Brazilian market. Maybe you could elaborate on that. And then I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you expect the third quarter to be the best quarter for some time.

Given the share price reaction today and given the consensus, I think, is around €850,000,000 EBITDA for Q3, could you maybe give a bit more color on those remarks too? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: David, can you clarify your question on Specialty Phosphates? I think Are none of us kind of followed you saying MicroEssentials margins? Or what particularly are you asking? So we answer

David Simons, Analyst, BNP Paribas: this Yes, sure. Thank you. So if I take the ASP and the Phosphates division and then I back out the realized DAP price using DAP volumes and the price you give for DAP, then the remainder, I’m taking as a kind of benchmark for the specialties pricing. And that seemed to fall quarter on quarter with worse realization in the sort of in the rest of the business if I take out the DAP part. So just curious whether that’s a quirk of the calculation or whether there’s anything happening in specialty seats pricing in Q2?

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes. I think, David, that’s one that’s probably better handled offline to get into more detail because there’s feed products in there. There’s a lot of stuff that go into that calculation, and we’re already running up on time. So not trying to avoid that question. The second part was more Brazil.

What’s going on, on the ground, I think is what you said?

David Simons, Analyst, BNP Paribas: Yes, exactly. And maybe some comments specifically around the government’s reduction in support for pharma financing of input costs.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes. I’m going to turn that over to Jenny and if Luciano has got anything to add as well. But Jenny, go ahead.

Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, Mosaic Company: Yes. So David, let me start from Brazil. We have a very strong first half of the market where we’re supported by the last of spring year corn crop. And the the the first half of the market was very strong. What we’re saying is really a slower much slower soybean summer season.

The farm economics are challenged given the higher input prices and the lower crop prices. And also the credit challenge has made the market move to much slower. What we are saying on the ground at this point of time, normally, only 5% of the summer season fertilizers to be purchased. But this year, around 20% to be purchased, which shows how slow this market it is. We are we are we are telling the customers to say the window is closing.

In order to get their fertilizers on the ground, they won’t need to get up to the purchases. Otherwise, we will see some significant logistic challenges. The bright side is really on the next safrinha or second corn crop where the farmers are really on pace of selling their crops and also buying fertilizers. In fact, the farmers buy buying their future corn fertilizers, already, they’ve they’ve bought 35% for the for the next second corn crop versus 25% as average. So the real challenge is really in the current summer season for soybean, and the credit issue is mainly challenge.

And we can we can tell you the customers on the ground are really trying to find any possible solutions. Probably government support is one of them, which I can I need to ask Luciano to to comment?

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: Oh, very quickly. So high interest rates, yes, less government support. What’s happening is that the big farmers, they continue to do well, but the small ones are being squeezed. You’re seeing consolidation. So when we talk about credit issues is on on just on that range of small farmers and the the retailers that buy and sell and have a lot of working capital needs.

So the planted area is actually growing because the big ones are making up for the difficulties of the small farmers. So that’s the situation. It’s consolidation of the market driven by tightness in financial conditions.

Conference Operator: The next question will come from Richard Garchicarino with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Jason Tremblay, Unspecified Executive, Mosaic Company0: Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. So maybe just shifting to potash. You took your full year production guidance up. Just curious, maybe on the third quarter, you had basically, in the second quarter, idle costs of $26,000,000 do you sorry, 34,000,000 in potash.

Do you expect to get any of that back in the third quarter? And then maybe just bigger picture, you know, with the Escherhazy hydro float ramping up, how should we think about 2026 production levels if if the market continues to stay strong? Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Yes, Richard. Third quarter, turnaround cost because Esterhazy would usually be and it’s usually in the $25 ish million to $30,000,000 zip code for a turnaround in Esterhazy was pulled in the second quarter. We don’t have that in third quarter. Belle Plaine still has a turnaround that straddles third and fourth quarter. But you should expect, as we’ve said, to see significant decrease in third quarter on turnaround costs in potash.

As far as running our facilities, we’re going to continue to run Colonsay to meet the strong demand that we’re seeing hence why we raised guidance. And that’s really coming from Southeast Asia. We got good solid demand in The Americas. But really where we’re seeing good growth is on the international side. In fact, Canpotex had a record shipment in the first half of the year and is anticipating something similar in the second half of the year given strong demand.

So there’s good demand at the right value proposition for us to run all of our assets right now. How does that look going into 2026 given that Hydrofloat is now ramping back up? We’re going to have to continue to evaluate that. If Canpotex and Mosaic domestically have enough share and enough volume and demand exists for our products and the value creation is there, we’ll continue to run those facilities. But it’s too early to say outside of running Bell Plain full and Esterhazy full what we’re going to do with the Calanse at this moment in time until we get a little bit closer to that to quarter one and quarter two of next year.

Conference Operator: Your next question will come from Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Jason Tremblay, Unspecified Executive, Mosaic Company1: Hi. Thank you very much for fitting me in. I I actually wanna finish here on on the beginning question. And forgive the simplicity of it, but asking on behalf of myself as the newcomer and on behalf of some of the the shareholders, the more broad shareholder base that you’ve attracted post Investor Day. Given what you know today about your operating rates, you’ve you’ve given guidance on pricing, you’ve given guidance on volume, you suggested you’re sold out in cost for three q.

How much better can three q EBITDA be versus two q? Any sort of quantification of that sequential step up would be extremely helpful. Thank you.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Well, Kristen, it’s kind of like earlier question on guiding to turnaround costs. We just don’t guide on EBITDA, but maybe Luciano can help give you some things to think about as maybe you’re modeling because the growth should be pretty significant based on those numbers from Q2 to Q3. So Luciano?

Luciano Ciene Perez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mosaic Company: So Christian, for example, starting with phosphates. So shipping margins are going to go up, right? So we’re guiding $700 to $720 per ton prices compared to $668 realized this quarter and sulfur and ammonia prices might be stable. So if you that change in margin times the tons of the Q is an increase. Then you have phosphate volumes increasing.

You can, for example, use the change in tons that we’re guiding times even the Q2 margins. You have turnaround and idle costs are coming down. We’ve discussed this extensively, so another plus. Conversion costs are going to come down, another plus. So conversion costs per ton could come down.

You can make an estimate and and multiply it by the tons. Blended rock costs. So in other words, a lot of tailwinds. When you go to potash, same thing. Prices are we’re guiding $2.70 to $2.90 compared to $2.61, so that increase flow directly into the bottom line.

You can multiply the changes by the the the difference in in volumes. The volumes, it’s kind of kind of stable. Production costs are going to to certainly increase with with hydro float coming in. Turnaround and hydro expenses, also discussed they’re going to come down on our estimate you could do. Mosaic Fertilizant’s EBITDA, we kind of guided it over $200,000,000 and maybe it would be well above depending on how much we sell.

So lot of levers that a good estimate should consider to see what’s going on in Q3 and certainly it’s going to be a much better number.

Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mosaic Company: Well, listen. That’s all the time we have for this call. I apologize to the five or six folks that we didn’t get a chance to get to. I really appreciate the interest in our call today. I had a good lineup.

I think we talked about a very robust set of topics. So appreciate that, but I encourage you to follow-up with the IR team and ask your questions there as they’re well prepared to talk about that. So I’d like to close our call by reminding you of our key messages. First, our work to improve asset reliability is paying off and we expect strong production performance as we’ve talked about for the remainder of the year. Second, fertilizer market fundamentals are compelling with tight supply and good global demand driving prices higher for both potash and phosphate.

Third, our Brazil business is performing very well and we expect significant earnings growth in the second half of this year. And finally, we’re continuing to derive value from our extensive market access. We have the ability to move tons to the markets where demand is highest and we have the pipelines to introduce new products like our Mosaic Biosciences innovations at scale. All in all, we’ve done the work necessary to set Mosaic up for a very strong second half. So again, thanks for joining our call, and have a great safe day.

Conference Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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