Earnings call transcript: Natural Grocers Q2 2025 beats expectations, stock surges

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC), now a $1.05 billion market cap company, reported impressive financial results for the second quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing earnings expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.56, beating the forecast of $0.40, and generated $335.8 million in revenue, exceeding the projected $332.08 million. Following the announcement, NGVC’s stock price rose by 11.18% in aftermarket trading, closing at $51. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears to be trading above its Fair Value, following a remarkable 179.53% return over the past year.

Key Takeaways

• Natural Grocers’ Q2 EPS of $0.56 beat the forecast by 40%.
• Revenue reached $335.8 million, surpassing expectations.
• The stock price increased by 11.18% in aftermarket trading.
• Operating income grew by 55.9% year-over-year.
• The company plans to open 3-4 new stores in fiscal 2025.

Company Performance

Natural Grocers demonstrated robust performance in Q2 2025, with net sales increasing by 9% year-over-year, maintaining its consistent revenue CAGR of 7% over the past five years. The company’s growth was driven by strong consumer demand for health and wellness products and effective cost management, resulting in a healthy gross profit margin of 33.5%. Comparable store sales rose by 8.9%, reflecting the company’s ability to attract and retain customers despite economic uncertainties. InvestingPro subscribers have access to additional insights, including 7 key tips about NGVC’s financial performance and growth prospects.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $335.8 million, up 9% year-over-year
• Earnings per share: $0.56, up 60% year-over-year
• Operating income: $17.6 million, up 55.9%
• Net income: $13.1 million, up 64.6%
• Adjusted EBITDA: $26.3 million, up 33.3%

Earnings vs. Forecast

Natural Grocers exceeded both EPS and revenue forecasts for Q2 2025. The actual EPS of $0.56 was 40% higher than the forecasted $0.40. The revenue of $335.8 million also surpassed expectations by $3.72 million. This marks a significant performance improvement compared to previous quarters, highlighting the company’s operational efficiency and market resilience.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Natural Grocers’ stock surged by 11.18% in aftermarket trading, reaching $51. This positive market reaction reflects investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and its ability to outperform expectations. The stock’s movement is notable, given its recent decline of 7.01% during regular trading hours.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Natural Grocers has set a positive outlook for fiscal 2025, with plans to open 3-4 new stores and relocate or remodel 2-4 existing locations. The company anticipates comparable store sales growth of 6.5-7.5% and projects diluted EPS of $1.78-$1.86. Capital expenditures are expected to range from $36 million to $44 million, supporting the company’s expansion strategy. The company’s financial health score of "GOOD" from InvestingPro, along with an impressive Piotroski Score of 8, suggests strong operational efficiency and financial stability.

Executive Commentary

Kemper Isley, Co-President, remarked, "We believe the quality, breadth, and duration of our sales performance are indicators of the overall strength of our business model." Richard Halle, CFO, added, "Our value offering of high quality, natural, and organic products at always affordable prices is particularly relevant to consumers."

Risks and Challenges

• Potential supply chain disruptions could impact inventory levels and sales.
• Economic uncertainty may affect consumer spending patterns.
• Increased competition in the health and wellness sector could pressure market share.
• Expansion into new states may pose operational and regulatory challenges.
• Fluctuations in commodity prices could impact profit margins.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company’s loyalty program and its impact on customer retention. Executives highlighted the program’s personalized deals and stable basket sizes. Questions also focused on the planned expansion into a new state, with management expressing confidence in the brand’s appeal to millennials and other demographics.

Full transcript - Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NGVC) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers Second Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded.

I’d now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jessica Theissen, Vice President, Treasurer for Natural Grocers. Ms. Theissen, you may now begin.

Jessica Theissen, Vice President, Treasurer, Natural Grocers: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage second quarter fiscal year twenty twenty five earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Kemper Isley, co president, and Richard Halle, chief financial officer. As a reminder, certain information provided during this conference call contains forward looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from those described in the forward looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the risks and uncertainties detailed in the company’s most recently filed Forms 10 Q and 10 ks. The company undertakes no obligation to update forward looking statements.

Our remarks today include references to adjusted EBITDA, which is a non GAAP measure. Please see our earnings release for a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net income. Today’s earnings release is available on the company’s website, and a recording of this call will be available on the website at investors.naturalgrocers.com. Now, I will turn the call over to Kemper.

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: Thank you, Jessica, and good afternoon, everyone. Our second quarter results were exceptional as we delivered record sales and earnings. On today’s call, I will highlight financial results, including key drivers of our performance, discuss what we are seeing in consumer trends, and provide an update on our initiatives. Then Rich will discuss our second quarter results in greater detail and review our updated fiscal year twenty twenty five guidance. Sales growth remained robust in the second quarter, and we continue to believe that the quality, breadth and longevity of our sales performance are extraordinary for grocery retail.

Daily average comparable store sales increased 8.9% and accelerated to 16.4% on a two year basis. The transaction count comp increase of 5.9% marked our ninth consecutive quarter with positive traffic. The transaction size comp increased 2.8% and was our fifth consecutive quarter with an increase in items per basket and modest inflation. Additionally, sales performance was strong across vintages. Remarkably, stores five years and older had an 8.5% comp for the quarter, underscoring the strong competitive position of our stores.

We are also very pleased with the performance of the newer vintages. We believe the quality, breadth, and duration of our sales performance are indicators of the overall strength of our business model and productivity of our initiatives. We believe there is a continuing trend in consumer prioritization of health and wellness, including a heightened focus on food and nutrition, and that we are well positioned to capitalize on this dynamic. New customers are increasingly drawn to our relevant value offering of high quality, natural and organic products at always affordable prices. Furthermore, we are enhancing customer engagement through our effective marketing initiatives, compelling offers, and the nPower Rewards program.

We believe that communicating and establishing our differentiated position in the marketplace has been instrumental in generating our strong sales performance over the past several years. For the second quarter, our focus on operational execution, including effective promotions and store productivity initiatives, combined with expense leverage from higher sales, resulted in an operating margin improvement of 150 basis points and a 60% increase in diluted earnings per share. Based on the strong second quarter results, we are increasing our fiscal twenty twenty five outlook for daily average comparable store sales growth and diluted earnings per share. In light of the broader macro environment, we are monitoring consumer trends closely. To date, we have not observed any indicators of softer demand for our products, trade down or fewer items per basket.

Second quarter sales remained strong across product categories with our highest comparable store sales growth in our most differentiated offerings. These include meat, in which we are committed to offering humanely raised and sustainably sourced meats fish and seafood produce, which is 100% organic and our dairy category, which includes 100% pasture raised dairy and a minimum egg standard of free range. Furthermore, our robust and balanced sales trends were relatively consistent throughout the second quarter and have continued into the third quarter. We have confidence in our ability to navigate the uncertain economic environment in front of us. Our customer base is diverse in terms of age and income demographics, and our customers share a significant focus on health and sustainability.

We believe that behaviors adopted by consumers to support their health and wellness are enduring. Additionally, our customers have historically been resilient during periods of economic uncertainty. We believe that our distinctive offering of high quality, natural and organic products at always affordable prices positions us to attract and retain customers across a spectrum of macro conditions. As we look to the remainder of fiscal twenty twenty five and beyond, we will continue to focus on our key priorities to drive growth, including communicating our differentiated offering, further enhancing customer engagement through our nPower Rewards program, expanding our selection of Natural Grocers brand products and driving new store development and existing store productivity. I will now highlight the second quarter performance of key initiatives.

During the second quarter, net sales penetration of our Empower Rewards program was 81%, up from 78% a year ago, reflecting continued positive trends in customer loyalty and engagement. Natural Grocers brand products are affordable offerings that meet our high standards for nutritional health and sustainability. In the second quarter, our branded products accounted for 8.6% of total sales, up from 8.5% a year ago, driven in part by new products. During the quarter, we launched 22 new Natural Grocers brand items, and we’re excited about the new offerings in the queue for the balance of the year. During the second quarter, we opened new stores in Brownsville, Brownsville, Texas and Waco, Texas.

Store unit growth and development continues to be a priority of our company. During fiscal twenty twenty five, we plan to open three to four new stores and relocate or remodel two to four stores. In the future, we plan to open six to eight new stores per year. In closing, I would like to thank our Good four You crew for their commitment to operational execution and exceptional customer service that were instrumental in driving our results. We are fortunate to have crew who share an affinity for our company’s founding principles and are dedicated to ensuring that our stores, operations and supply chain reflect these values.

With that, I will turn our call over to Rich to discuss our financial results and outlook.

Richard Halle, Chief Financial Officer, Natural Grocers: Thank you, Kemper, and good afternoon. For the second quarter, net sales increased 9% from the prior year period to $335,800,000 Daily average comparable store sales increased 8.9%, and on a two year basis, the increase accelerated to 16.4. Our daily average comparable transaction count increased 5.9%. Our daily average comparable transaction size increased 2.8%, including modest product cost inflation of an estimated two percentage points on an annualized basis, and an increase in items per basket of approximately one percentage point. For the second quarter, gross margin increased 100 basis points to 30.3%, driven by higher product margin, primarily attributed to effective promotions.

Store expenses as a percentage of net sales decreased 80 basis points, reflecting leverage. Administrative expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 20 basis points, driven by technology expenses and higher compensation. Operating income increased 55.9% to $17,600,000 Operating margin increased 150 basis points. Net income increased 64.6% to $13,100,000 and diluted earnings per share increased 60% to $0.56 in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 33.3% to $26,300,000 Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow.

We ended the second quarter in a strong liquidity position, including 21,200,000 in cash and cash equivalents, no outstanding borrowings and $70,300,000 available to borrow on our revolving credit facility. During the first six months of fiscal twenty twenty five, we generated cash from operations of $36,770,000 and invested $15,900,000 in net capital expenditures, primarily for new and relocated stores, resulting in free cash flow of $20,800,000 We are raising our fiscal twenty twenty five outlook for daily average comparable store sales growth and diluted earnings per share and updating our outlook for new stores. Our revised outlook includes the following: three to four new store openings compared to our prior outlook of four to six two to four store relocations or remodels daily average comparable store sales growth between 6.57.5%, an increase compared to our prior outlook of between 57% diluted earnings per share between $1.78 and 1.86 an increase compared to our prior outlook of $1.57 and $1.65 and capital expenditures of $36,000,000 to $44,000,000 to support our growth initiatives. Our outlook reflects the strong first half results and considers a range of scenarios for the second half. Consistent with our previous guidance, our expectation is that sales comps will moderate somewhat in the second half of the year as we continue to cycle relatively strong comps in the prior year.

Additionally, our sales comp guidance considers a range of scenarios given uncertainty around tariff impacts and the broader macro environment. Our outlook for year over year gross margin is flat to slightly lower, primarily depending on promotional investments. Lastly, we expect that year over year store expenses as a percentage of sales will be relatively flat to slightly lower. In closing, while there is some uncertainty in the market, we believe our value offering of high quality, natural, and organic products at always affordable prices is particularly relevant to consumers. Furthermore, we will continue to focus on our key priorities to drive growth for the remainder of fiscal twenty twenty five and beyond.

Now, we’d like to open the line for questions. Thank you.

Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Scott Mushkin with R5 Capital. Scott Mushkin, your line has been unmuted.

You may proceed with your question.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Hey, sorry guys. This is Ryan on for Scott. Congrats on the great results. So just on the loyalty program, what are you guys doing for the consumer in terms of, you know, perks, promos? What type of stuff are you offering?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: Well, we have a few things that we do. We send out individualized offers to our members. And those offers are tailored towards their shopping habits, so if they’re a supplement customer they’ll get an offer that offers X amount off of a certain amount of purchase and supplements, or they’ll get some specific deals that they only are offered, etc. And then on an everyday basis, you earn points in the store, and it essentially works out to a 1% rebate if you click and load the offers, and so that’s a big draw for our really loyal customers. And then to get our best pricing on eggs and avocados you have to be an ENPOWER member, and that’s a really big draw for our members.

And so those are some of the things. And then also the in store specials are all nPower driven. So essentially that’s what we do.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay, awesome. And then have you seen your consumers’ basket size going down just given the economy?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: No, our basket size has stayed very steady. It hasn’t. It’s been steady for the last several quarters.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Awesome. And then in terms of adding six to eight new stores the next year, do you plan to expand in any other market?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: We actually are going into another state, and we’ll be announcing that location here in the next couple of months.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay, awesome. How were your in stock levels, inventory, and distribution?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: They’re about back to where they were pre pandemic, so they’re running about 97% in stock on everything.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay. And then do you guys offer pickup and delivery?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: Yes. We do via Instacart.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay. So are people, are your customers using that a lot, and are you offering free delivery, or is that just through Instacart?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: It’s just through free it’s just through Instacart, and it’s been steady at about 2% of our sales for the last two years.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay, and then will that at any rate be in house? Will you change from using Instacart just to natural grocers?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: No, we’ll be using third party delivery programs for our delivery services. It wouldn’t be profitable for us to take it in house.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Gotcha, and then on the remodels, are you guys going to up your remodels next year or in the back half of the year?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: We do that on an opportunistic opportunistic basis, and so it’s hard to say how many remodels we’ll have for next year. Have two in the queue right now, and it definitely could go it’ll probably go two to four more by the time year rolls through.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Okay, and then last question. Demographically, there’s been trends on all sorts of social media, health and wellness, everything like that. Are you seeing your age demographic trend downwards, or is it stable, kind of the middle age?

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: I think that we’ve picked up quite a few millennials. There’s a lot of people that like our authentic messaging, and so that resonates really well with the younger demographic. And so that’s definitely helping our traffic growth.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: Got it. Thank you so much, guys.

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: Thanks for the call today. Thanks for the questions. Have a nice rest of the day.

Ryan, Analyst, R5 Capital: You as well.

Conference Operator: Thank you. We have no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Kemper Iseve for closing remarks.

Kemper Isley, Co-President, Natural Grocers: Thank you. It’s a beautiful day here in Colorado, and we are proud to be a Colorado company. And we are proud of our second quarter results, which reflect the continuation of the positive trends we have experienced for more than two years. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day. Bye.

Conference Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending the Natural Grocers second quarter fiscal year twenty twenty five earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

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