Earnings call transcript: Nos SGPS Q3 2025 EPS beats, stock gains

Nos SGPS SA, a consistently profitable company according to InvestingPro data, reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2025, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of €0.125, surpassing the forecast of €0.115 by 8.7%. The company’s revenue fell short of expectations, reaching €457 million against a forecast of €471.52 million, a 3.08% miss. Following the earnings release, Nos SGPS’s stock price rose by 0.8%, adding to its impressive 28.57% year-to-date return, reflecting investor optimism driven by the earnings beat and strategic initiatives.

Key Takeaways

• Nos SGPS beat EPS expectations with a surprise of 8.7%.
• Revenue fell short by 3.08%, raising some investor concerns.
• The company expanded its Fiber to the Home (FTTH) network, adding 78,000 new households.
• Stock price increased by 0.8% post-earnings announcement.
• Net income rose by 25%, highlighting strong financial performance.

Company Performance

Nos SGPS demonstrated robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in profitability metrics. The company reported a 2.7% increase in EBITDA and a substantial 25% rise in net income, reaching €65 million. With a 22-year track record of consistent dividend payments and strong free cash flow yield, as highlighted by InvestingPro, the company maintains its financial strength despite a slight decline in consolidated revenues by 1.2%. The company’s strategic initiatives, including the expansion of its FTTH network, underscore its commitment to growth and innovation.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: €457 million, down 1.2% year-over-year
• Earnings per share: €0.125, surpassing forecast by 8.7%
• Net income: €65 million, up 25% from the previous year
• EBITDA: Increased by 2.7%
• CAPEX: Reduced by 2% to €91.5 million

Earnings vs. Forecast

Nos SGPS exceeded EPS expectations with a reported figure of €0.125, against the forecast of €0.115, resulting in an 8.7% surprise. However, revenue did not meet expectations, coming in at €457 million compared to the forecasted €471.52 million, a 3.08% shortfall. The EPS beat suggests strong profitability, while the revenue miss may indicate challenges in top-line growth.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Nos SGPS’s stock price increased by 0.8%, signaling positive investor sentiment. The stock’s performance remains robust within its 52-week range, indicating confidence in the company’s strategic direction and financial health.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Nos SGPS plans to continue its GenAI transformation program, exploring 135 potential AI use cases. The company anticipates ongoing network expansion through the first half of 2026 and expects a reduction in CAPEX during the same period. Despite potential short-term RGU challenges, the company remains optimistic about medium-term stabilization. For deeper insights into Nos SGPS’s valuation and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access comprehensive analysis, including 8 additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics that help evaluate the company’s future potential.

Executive Commentary

Luís Nascimento, CFO, highlighted the company’s focus on AI initiatives, stating, "We have around 135 different use cases, and we have just started with around 25% of them." An executive representative expressed confidence in the company’s market position, noting, "We are not going to give too much space to the new entrants, that’s for sure."

Risks and Challenges

• Revenue miss raises concerns about top-line growth.
• Slight ARPU decline indicates potential pricing pressure.
• Potential short-term RGU challenges before stabilization.
• Competitive pressures from new budget brand entrants.
• Macroeconomic conditions impacting consumer spending.

Q&A

During the Q&A session, analysts inquired about the competitive environment and potential price increases. Executives noted no significant changes in competition and mentioned evaluating price adjustments by year-end. The company also addressed inquiries about shareholder legal situations, stating there were no updates.

Full transcript - Nos SGPS SA (NOS) Q3 2025:

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Hello, everyone. Good morning. Welcome to NOS third quarter 2025 conference call. I’ll hand you over to our CFO, Luís Nascimento. We’ll deliver a short presentation, and then we’ll open for Q&A as usual.

Luís Nascimento, CFO, NOS: Good morning and welcome to NOS third quarter conference call. We will begin as usual with the main highlights of this third quarter. A strong operational performance with RGU trends significantly improving versus previous quarter. A consolidated revenue of €457 million, strongly impacted by ANC decline despite resilient performance from Telco. An efficient cost management that is driving EBITDA growth and sustainable operational cash flow generation, and a solid balance sheet and financial position with leverage below reference level of 2 times. A quick overview of our main KPIs. This quarter, revenues declined 1.2% to €457 million, but EBITDA rose 2.7%. This positive EBITDA performance, along with a CAPEX reduction of 2%, led to an improved EBITDA CAPEX of almost 10%. Recurring free cash flow, excluding extraordinary effects, decreased 19%, and net income increased 25%, reflecting the solid operational performance and our strategic transformation program.

NOS proudly leads in global sustainability, having been recognized by both Time and Financial Times in their international benchmarking rankings as one of the world’s most sustainable companies. This impressive achievement places NOS as one of only five Portuguese companies in both lists and the only one from the Telco sector. This highlights NOS’ strong commitment and significant progress towards a sustainable future. Furthermore, NOS has received recognition from DecoProteste, the leading Portuguese consumer rights association magazine, being named best in test for its mobile internet, Wi-Fi, and TV services. It’s the first time any operator has secured UltraCore distinctions, underscoring NOS’ strong commitment and investment in superior networks and quality of service. On the operational performance side, this was another strong quarter of fiber to the home expansion. More than 5.9 million households are now covered by NOS Gigabit Fixed Network, with FTTH representing almost 88% of households passed.

This is a significant increase of 78,000 households quarter on quarter and almost 300,000 year on year. Despite a challenging competitive market, NOS’ strong offers and commercial capabilities delivered a very strong third quarter with a 2% increase to 10.9 million RGUs, with 131,000 net adds. This quarter posted the highest level of net adds since 2023, driven by solid numbers in both fixed and mobile RGUs. With 12,000 net adds of unique successes, this third quarter saw an acceleration of the operational momentum, driven by high levels of fiber deployment, low levels of churn, and competitive offers, particularly from WU brand and Naked Broadband, that are changing the mix of new customers. In mobile, with 111,000 net adds in the quarter, mobile RGUs increased 3.3%, reflecting a stronger performance both in postpaid and prepaid.

Postpaid had 160 net adds, posting very strong results driven by WU and NOS’ competitiveness on convergent cross-sell. Prepaid net additions continue to improve since first quarter and just decreased 5,000 in the quarter, a clear improvement from Q2 seasonality despite competitive pressure. In summary, a solid operational performance and a strong improvement versus the previous quarters. Now moving to audio visuals and cinema business. The number of tickets sold declined by 28%, driven by the lack of blockbusters lineup this quarter, in contrast with third quarter 2024, which featured several box office hits, including Inside Out 2, the most watched film ever in Portugal. The audiovisual segment was dragged down by cinema distribution, reflecting the lack of successful movies lineups in this third quarter, as opposed to third quarter 2024, where NOS distributed Inside Out 2.

Only three NOS audiovisual films ranked in the top 10 this quarter, harming NOS’ performance. Now on the financial performance side, NOS’ consolidated revenues decreased 1.2%, a reduction of €5.5 million, driven by a €6.8 million decline in the audiovisual and cinema division, and despite the resilient performance of the telecom segment. Telco revenues show a resilient 0.3% growth, primarily due to the performance of the enterprise sector, which posted a 4.4% increase driven by the corporate segment. The B2C segment experienced a decline of 1.2% due to increased competition impacting RGU, despite stronger operational activity. The new IT business showed a small decline of 0.4%, mainly driven by a reduction in the volatile resale of equipment and licenses. However, this was almost fully offset by a solid 8.4% growth in IT services.

As previously explained, the audiovisuals and cinema division reported a 21% decline, driven by the 28% reduction in cinema attendance. NOS’ operational performance and the solid results of NOS’ transformation program, supported on GenAI-driven efficiency program, continue to deliver a solid 2.7% EBITDA increase, significantly above revenue, with a robust contribution from Telco and IT, which recorded increases of 4.3% and 10.4%, and despite media segment decline of 21%. This quarter, NOS achieved a 4.6% OPEX decline, largely due to proactive cost management and GenAI-supported transformation program that continues to boost structural efficiencies organization-wide. Two significant examples of AI impact this quarter include the automation of call center and customer care service through LLM-powered voice virtual assistants and GenAI-based chatbots, which drove a 19% reduction in customer care costs.

Furthermore, a 14% reduction in maintenance and repair costs was achieved by decreasing call times and intervention orders, also driven by AI. NOS’ CAPEX continues the structural declining trend, and this quarter dropped 2% to €91.5 million, mainly supported by the Telco CAPEX decline of 2%. In Telco, we saw a 2.4% reduction in customer-related investments and a 3.7% decrease in base CAPEX. Expansion CAPEX, however, saw an exceptional increase of 1.8% this quarter, driven by a temporary peak in NOS’ FTTH projects. IT CAPEX increased by €0.3 million to €1.9 million, driven by customer-related investment to support business growth, and audiovisuals and cinema CAPEX declined 7% to €4.6 million, reflecting a return to a more normal spending level. As a result, improved operational performance and efficient CAPEX management drove a 9.6% increase in EBITDA IL minus CAPEX. NOS saw the consolidated net income rise 25% to €65 million.

A strong EBITDA growth, supported by a solid operational performance and non-proactive cost management, were key drivers, complemented by reduced financial costs and a €5 million contribution from tax incentives. Free cash flow declined by 56% to €51 million, primarily due to a reduction of almost €50 million in extraordinary effects, mainly related to tower sales to sell next and the tax receivable paid in advance in 2023, which positively impacted third quarter by €30 million. However, this quarter, we have a negative impact of €90 million in taxes from extraordinary gains in 2024 from tower sales and refund of activity fees. Without extraordinary items, recurring cash flow dropped 19%, driven by a €39 million increase in taxes that totally offsets the positive impacts of the strong operational performance, lower investments, a reduction in working capital, and lower interest rates.

To finalize, this quarter, NOS SGPS SA’s debt decreased to €1,093 million, and the financial leverage ratio dropped to 1.6, well below the reference threshold of two times. Additionally, NOS SGPS SA benefits from a lower average cost of debt, now below 2.8%, representing a decrease of 0.2% quarter on quarter and 1.2% year on year. As of March, the company held €343 million in cash and liquidity. With this, we conclude our presentation, and we are now ready to answer your questions.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A queue. Our first question comes from the line of Molly Whitcomb from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. I have two questions, please. Firstly, on the competitive environment, if you could give us a little bit more color on how that is progressing versus previous quarters, specifically in the budget segment. It would be really good to understand as well the uptake in net adds that you’ve seen. Is it mainly driven by WU and the budget segment or elsewhere? My second question is on upside from cost efficiencies. Obviously, you’ve set out your transformation plan. To what extent are these savings already make up part of guidance, and to what extent do you think there’s potential for further upside from cost efficiencies driven by AI savings? Thank you.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Okay. Thank you very much for your questions. In terms of competitive environment, to be completely honest and transparent, these last few months, I don’t think there’s any news, anything relevant that is different from the previous months. The dynamics since last November have been more or less the same. In our case, there is already some weight in terms of gross ads coming from the discount brands, but that number is still not even double-digit. It is more or less stable in terms of weight of gross ads. To be honest, we don’t see anything changing significantly from what we have seen in the first half of the year.

Luís Nascimento, CFO, NOS: On the cost-efficient side, I would say that cost efficiencies are the main driver behind the operating cost decline of 3.6% in Telco. Almost all of it is coming from efficiencies, as I said, from customer-related and from operating-related cost decrease. We believe they are sustainable as the GenAI initiatives are still far from explored. It’s a long-term program, so we believe that we will have efficiencies for a long period.

Okay, thank you very much.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Antonio Celadas from AS Independent Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. Thank you for taking my question. It’s just one. It’s related with the pace at which your retail customers are renegotiating their packages. Taking in consideration that this new environment is now about one year old and at some time your loyalty programs are for two years, it’s fair to assume that roughly 50% of your customers, retail customers, already renegotiate their package? Do you think this is too optimistic? Thank you very much.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Look, first of all, thank you for the question, Antonio. In this new competitive environment, over the last 12 months, the pressure on our retention lines, with customers trying to renegotiate contracts, has not increased. It has been more or less stable. We haven’t seen, namely in these last few months, any pickup in customers trying to renegotiate contracts. On that front, I would say, in the competitive environment, things are pretty much stable.

Nevertheless, your ARPU, your blended price in retail is coming down 1% year on year in the second, and now about 2%. Is this kind of performance that we should expect for the coming quarters?

Look, that decline has a number of effects built into it. First of all, you have the mobile data revenues that we had a one-shot decline last December or November. That’s a one-off effect that will not continue for the future. You have, as I mentioned, we already have, since last November, some gross ads coming from the WU brand, the discount brand, which has a much lower ARPU than the NOS brand. In terms of that, it progressively has an impact. On top of that, I would recall that we didn’t have the price increase at the beginning of this year. You have to add up all these effects to explain that decline.

Okay, thank you very much.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Fernando Cordero Barrera from Banco Santander. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hello. Good morning or good afternoon, already. Same question from my side, if I may. The first question is, as a follow-up on the strategic transformation plan, you have already highlighted the impacts on the customer care, and in maintenance and repair costs. Are you foreseeing any other area in the operational side where the AI-driven efficiencies could be as relevant as in these two? The second question is related with the network expansion. You have already commented in the presentation that you have already added 300,000 new homes to your network. I would like to understand which is the still potential expansion of your network. What would be the, let’s say, the number of households that could be, could be deployed in in the future, just to understand which is also the impact on your potential top-line growth.

The last question is, looking to your KPIs where the sound performance in volumes has been offset by the trends in ARPU, as you have already highlighted. I would like to understand, or I understand that you are prioritizing volumes versus customer value versus ARPU. Can you help us to understand why have you opted by this scenario instead of prioritizing ARPU versus volumes, just to understand what has been your way of thinking to end in the current strategy? Thank you.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Thank you, Fernando. I would like to start with the last question, which I think is very interesting. I don’t think it’s fair to say that we are prioritizing volume against price. As I mentioned, we, of course, don’t want to give too much space to the discount brands or the discount players. We launched, as you know, a discount brand, and obviously, that has an impact because progressively we have more customers within this brand with lower ARPUs, much lower ARPUs. When you see the combined ARPU, that has an effect. That’s it. I don’t think it’s fair to say that we are prioritizing volume versus price. We are not going to give too much space to the new entrants, that’s for sure. We are trying to manage value. I don’t think your comment is very fair, to be honest. I understand it. Don’t take me wrong.

I understand it. This is a result of a number of things. Our strategy is not to prioritize volume against price. It’s to find the right mix.

Luís Nascimento, CFO, NOS: Okay. On the transformation program, the GenAI is part of our program, and the idea is to massify GenAI across the entire organization. We have around 135 different use cases, and we have just started with around 25% of them. There’s a lot of room to massify GenAI across NOS. On the expansion, we are expanding our own FTTH, and we will do it until the end of the first half of 2026. We will have houses from third parties. We expect to have around 300,000 to 350,000 houses for the next year, with a significant part of them from third parties. Our CAPEX, expansion CAPEX, will continue to decline in 2026.

Okay. Many thanks for all the answers. Just a follow-up on the network expansion side. Not only am I looking to understand what could be the CAPEX trend for next year, also to understand, given that you are increasing your footprint by close to 5% and your customer base in terms of fixed assets by around 2%, I just would like to understand which would be the network expansion that you are expected for 2026, 2027, not just on the impact of CAPEX, but particularly in the impact of new addressable areas for your marketing activities.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: I would share two comments on that. First of all, there is a time to take up. One thing is to have the expansion, another thing is to acquire customers. It takes time. You cannot expect if you increase by 5% the number of households, you cannot expect to increase the number of customers by 5% day one. It takes time, and it takes a lot of time, obviously. The takeup is going according to our expectations, but there’s obviously a delay. On the CAPEX side, what you can expect, as we have been saying for quite some time now, is CAPEX going down. Part of this fiber expansion is on third-party networks. What you can expect for next year in terms of CAPEX is a reduction.

Many thanks again for the call.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of José Cabezón from CaixaBank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Luís Nascimento, CFO, NOS: Hi. Do you hear me?

Yes. Good morning. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for your time. One question regarding the efficiency plan. You have mentioned that you have a few 135 areas where you can extract more efficiencies. Could you tell us the % of potential savings that have been already considered and the amount that will emerge in the coming quarters?

To give you the percentage of efficiencies that we have, it’s a form of guidance. We are not sharing this number.

Thank you. A second question is regarding the comparison basis for us from this quarter. Are you expecting that the decline in RGUs and the changes that we are seeing year over year are going to soften in the coming quarters?

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Our expectation is that it can get a little bit worse before it gets better.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Long term, long term, just to add to that. You’re talking about the next quarter?

No, I am referring to basically us from the next quarter, what we are going to see, especially in the first quarter of next year and the following ones.

Our expectation is that short term, probably it will decline a little bit more, but medium term, so looking six months, nine months ahead, it will stabilize.

All right. Thank you very much.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the questions. I’ve got two, please, mainly follow-ups. Just on the competitive dynamic, I guess having had quite a strong start to the other new entrants’ momentum has perhaps stalled. I don’t know if that’s fair to say. How should we then be thinking about the scope for price increases next year? I think typically it’s around this time where you do inform your customer base around the kind of inflationary price indexation that we see. I think this year we didn’t have anything. Secondly, it’s around the network dynamics. Have you changed your stance or have you seen kind of incremental approaches for wholesale access? Anything that has changed on that front? You know the new entrant has been pushing hard to increase their coverage. Any thoughts around that if there’s been any change or is it still the same? Thank you.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: Thank you for your questions. You’re right. It’s more or less around this time of the year that we have to inform customers, but it’s still closer to the end of November, beginning of December. The fact is that as of today, we have no decision. I can tell you that we are evaluating the option and we have no conclusion yet, but we are looking into it seriously. We’ll inform the markets of our decision or not by the end of November. In terms of network developments and all wholesale access, namely from the new entrants, we don’t know if with us, there’s no discussions whatsoever. With the others, we don’t know if there are any discussions, but in terms of closed deals, there’s nothing new.

That’s great. Thank you.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. We’ll now move on to our next question. We have a follow-up question from the line of Fernando Cordero Barrera from Banco Santander. Please go ahead.

Thank you again for the question. It’s only one. I just would like to understand if there is any news regarding the legal situation of one of your major holders, the 26% stake for Isabel dos Santos. Just to understand if there has been any update or you have any update on that situation.

Executive/Management Representative, NOS: That’s the easiest question of all. No developments whatsoever. Nothing new. Everything is as it was one year ago, two years ago, three years ago.

Okay, many thanks.

Pedro Cota Dias, Moderator/Host, NOS: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’ll hand the call back to Pedro Cota Dias for closing remarks.

Luís Nascimento, CFO, NOS: Thanks very much for tuning in, and we hope to see you back in fourth quarter 2025 results. Bye-bye.

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