Earnings call transcript: Olvi Oyj Q1 2025 results show mixed performance

Olvi Oyj’s Q1 2025 earnings call revealed a mixed performance, with improved profitability in Finland but challenges in other markets. Despite launching 90 new products and maintaining strong market shares, the company faced headwinds such as decreased EBIT in Denmark and weak consumer purchasing power in the Baltic region. These factors contributed to a 3.81% decline in Olvi’s stock price, closing at 32.8, down from its last close of 34.1. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company maintains excellent financial health with a comprehensive score of 3.25 out of 5, labeled as "GREAT."

Key Takeaways

• Profitability in Finland improved by nearly 20%.
• EBIT in Denmark decreased by 40%.
• Launched 90 new products, focusing on non-alcoholic categories.
• Stock price dropped by 3.81%, nearing its 52-week low.

Company Performance

Olvi Oyj’s Q1 2025 performance was characterized by significant regional variations. While profitability in Finland rose by almost 20%, volumes decreased by 5.7%. In Denmark, EBIT fell by 40%, highlighting regional challenges. Despite these issues, Olvi maintained strong market shares across its markets, supported by strategic investments and product innovations. InvestingPro data shows the company’s resilience through strong fundamentals, including a healthy gross profit margin of 40.56% and revenue growth of 4.17% over the last twelve months.

Financial Highlights

• Total investments: €11 million in Q1, with €8 million in Finland.
• Equity ratio remains robust despite a €50 million green loan withdrawal.
• Strong market share in Finland’s beer market, exceeding 50%.

Market Reaction

Olvi’s stock price fell by 3.81% to 32.8, reflecting investor concerns over regional profitability challenges and broader market conditions. This decline positions the stock closer to its 52-week low, indicating a cautious market sentiment. However, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 11.02. The company also maintains a solid dividend yield of 3.81% and has consistently paid dividends for 34 consecutive years, demonstrating long-term financial stability.

Outlook & Guidance

Olvi maintained its full-year profit guidance of €82-90 million, signaling confidence in its strategic plans. The company continues to optimize its portfolio and expects to meet expectations, despite monitoring uncertain market conditions in Belarus.

Executive Commentary

• "We believe in our strategy. 2024 demonstrated we’re on the right path," stated Patrick, Senior Executive, emphasizing confidence in the company’s direction.
• "We’re hoping for sunshine and warm weather," added Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, highlighting seasonal factors influencing performance.
• "Competition is intense... Everyone is fighting for the available spend," noted Patrick, reflecting the challenging market environment.

Risks and Challenges

• Decreased consumer purchasing power in the Baltic region.
• Intense retail competition and increased excise duties in Baltic countries.
• Geopolitical uncertainties affecting market conditions.
• Potential changes in Finnish alcohol laws.
• Ongoing monitoring of the Belarus market exit strategy.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of Easter timing, raw material price trends, and potential changes in Finnish alcohol laws. Olvi addressed these concerns, emphasizing its strategic focus and market adaptability.

Full transcript - Olvi Oyj A (OLVAS) Q1 2025:

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Welcome. Welcome to our Q1 interim report. Before we get going, I want to share the usual one pager with some disclaimers. We’ll be making some references to the future. And as we can all understand, the future always comes with certain levels of uncertainty.

You have your usual hosts, Tina, Lisa, Ljukkonen and myself, Patrick, here with you today. The first quarter of the year is always a busy period. It’s a period of preparing for summer, but also a period when we compile the results of the previous year and share these with the market. I bring this up because last week, we hosted our AGM in Isalmi, and there was a particular note that I wanted to make as it pertains to our annual report. And as to sustainability statement, we have published this now for the first time and it’s, of course, in compliance with the new directive.

I invite you all to visit it and have a read. It’s a good read, a comprehensive read and it’s a quite important piece of documentation. I also wanted to take this opportunity to thank our team really for the great, tremendous work that they’ve done in terms of compiling the report, but beyond that, for the way in which they lead the way in sustainable business growth. And why do I say that we lead the way? Well, we’re quite proud to actually have proof of that.

We were recognized by Time Magazine as one of the world’s best companies when it comes to leading sustainable growth. So with that, I hope that my words of thanks to the team are not only polite but also factual and that U. Investors find this as great evidence of the fact that the things that we’re doing are actually being recognized and are taking us in the right direction. But then a bit further detail on Q1. So as I mentioned, it’s a busy period.

It’s also a period of preparation for summer. So we’re building our stock so that we can service our customers during summer and make sure that we deliver on our promise of bringing moments of enjoyment to our consumers across the markets. And I’m glad to share that during Q1 and also as we speak these days, we’re bringing novelties to shelf. We’re bringing some 90, that’s nine-zero, new products to the shelves across our markets. That’s a combined number.

As we look at the numbers of Q1 and compare them with Q1 of twenty twenty four, there are a few important things to bear in mind. The first one is the timing of Easter. Easter coincided in Q1 last year as it was in April. On the other hand, we’ve seen some increases in excise duties, particularly in The Baltics. We’ve had a strike in Finland.

All of these have impacted volumes delivered to market and also the consumer demand. We have there beyond that, we have also invested more than previous years in marketing and G and A to make sure that we’re ready to capitalize on the new products launched and really drive our performance across functions. But regardless of the weak demand, we’re very proud of our portfolio and the strength of it. There’s been intense competition in the market, which has been persistent for some time now, but we’re holding our ground. We haven’t lost market share.

Rather the opposite, we’ve even been able to grow our share in some categories. It’s great to see that these initiatives are working in the chosen areas. We have been communicated previously that we want to grow in nonalcoholics and in the Horeka channel. So much in line with our strategy, we see growth coming from these two spaces. And then finally, as we look at the future, I want to mention High Bay Warehouse, one of the major investments of this year that we’re doing in Finland, it’s up and running.

We have already put in some 8,000 pallets of products in storage ahead of season to make sure that our service levels this summer will be in good stead. So then, as a whole, how did Q1 look like through the numbers? I’d like to say that in general, to the greatest extent, this was more or less in line with our expectations. So no major surprises. We’re still seeing that softness in demand that I mentioned and some of the other impacts there in terms of the market dynamics.

But we should really remember that we’re overlapping a quarter where all our initiatives were not yet in play. We had not done some of our portfolio choices in Denmark and Finland at this time last year. We had also not been able to improve our mix to the extent that we were looking to do nor had we fully been able to materialize on some of the efficiency driving initiatives in our own operations. So this really impacts the delta between volume evolution on one hand and then the profit evolution, and particularly as we look at Denmark and Finland. Denmark impacting, of course, then the Baltic region.

But with those words, I wanted to hand over to Tina. Lisa will talk us through the segments in a bit further detail and some of the economics as well. Thank you.

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Thank you, Patrick. So let’s move to the segment performance for the quarter one twenty five. And let’s start with Finland. First, I want to emphasize that our profitability improved almost 20%, and this is especially due to improved production efficiency and then the higher average sales price due to the comparison period. We have to remember that last year, we were able to make the improvements that offset then the high inflation from quarter two onwards.

Then our volumes decreased this 5.7%. So as mentioned earlier, there was one week strike in March in Finland and that affected our delivery capacity and decreased the delivered volumes. But to note that industry delivered volumes decreased even more than Olvi volumes did. And also there is Eastern sales impact, that this year, the Eastern is in Vartal too. Despite the lower volumes, our strong market shares remained.

For example, our beer market share in Finland is more than 50%, despite the changes what we made to the product portfolio in 2024. And the sales of waters and harsh seltzers continue to grow. Then in Baltic Sea region, in general, in Baltic countries, consumer purchasing power remained in a weak level and then the price competition continued to intensify. Also increases in excise duties imposed on beverages early in the year also harmed the demand in Estonia and in Latvia. But we maintained market shares in Baltic countries, despite of these facts.

The biggest decline both in volumes and profits came from Denmark, where we made changes to the portfolio. As you remember, discontinuing some unprofitable products last year. And volume base is now lower. EBIT decreased 40%, and that is because the cost for preparing the summer also affected the profitability. And at the same time, we have invested to the novelties and especially in Denmark, the Jolly soft drink brand.

It seems that Danes have an increased interest in domestic brands instead of the American ones. And we have to note that the total euro effect is only €1,100,000 in EBIT, which is then the decrease. And we believe that that is not the kind of the obstacle to perform well in the future or this year. Then in Belarus, volumes and net sales continued to increase with the overall market growth. And the consumer demand has been also been strong.

We have to note that Belarus market conditions are different from the other markets, especially for this purchase in power. And then sales volume increased, especially in non alcoholic product categories like water, energy drink and soft drinks, growth was achieved in all sales channels. We have all noticed that the geopolitical situation continues to be very volatile. And the same thing is for us that no changes in all the situation what comes to the exit from the market. There is no permit to sell the shares and the dividend distribution restrictions are still valid under the year end.

Then some KPI summaries from the Quartal one. First, equity ratio has remained very strong despite, for example, that we withdraw this €50,000,000 green loan for the new brew house and financing that. And investment in general, EUR 11,000,000 for the first three months. And from that, 8,000,000 was related to Finland. So there is this high bay warehouse that Patrick was mentioning that we are already taking in use now for the summer season and the Bruhaus construction is ongoing.

And those projects are progressing in schedule. And then some minor investments, about €2,000,000 in the Baltic Sea region. Then the cash flow, in this time of year, the cash flow is always negative. So it is when we are preparing for the summer season. And especially this year, we have been stocking quite a lot products.

So that is affecting to the negative operating cash flow. Yes, but I think those are the main points from the financials.

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Yes. Thank you, Tin, Lisa. And then a few more slides and then we can get to the questions. As it relates to our near term outlook, we’re making no changes, so we’re holding our guidance for this year and expect our profit to land somewhere between 82,000,000 and €90,000,000 Then really briefly on strategy and choices. Some of you might recall that we called out a few teams during 2024 that we believe would be impacting the year.

We see many of these, actually all of them, continuing throughout 2025 as well. We’ve touched on households and the purchasing power being impacted by increasing prices on one hand, and then the weak demand is also subject to uncertainties and concerns. Then more broadly, competition is intense and so forth. You can see them there on the chart. But we believe in our strategy.

We believe 2024 demonstrated we’re on the right path also to the first quarter coming in broadly along with our expectations gives us confidence to continue to implement this strategy in a systematic way, both on a group level and then also on a local level. And of course, as always, we’re guided by our values and we believe in strong partnership, positivity and collaboration. So with those words and plans, we have every reason to believe that we can deliver in line with expectations throughout the year 2025 and beyond. But this is us in a nutshell, summarizing the first quarter, and now we’re opening up for any questions in the room or online. You.

Sanna Perala, Analyst, Nordea: Sanna Perala from Nordea. I have a few questions. Firstly, in Q1, your tax rate was quite high at 25%, at least compared to the Q1 last year. Could you elaborate this a bit? Or is this the normal level going forward?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Maybe you want to take that?

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Yes. Thank you for the question. Yes, I think that the comparison period taxes were exceptionally low. So this tax amount or tax rate is more affecting or reflecting the reality where the effective tax rate is currently.

Sanna Perala, Analyst, Nordea: Right. Then you mentioned the timing of Easter and also the one week strike here in Finland that impacted your volumes negatively. Could you quantify these impacts a little bit more?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Thank you. Maybe I’ll take that one. Good question. I anticipated the question. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to give you a numeric and precise answer.

But now that we get April completed, then we’ll see how the timing of Easter has impacted on the first four months. So when we come to report on Q2, then I’ll have more specific answers for you. Then the second question related to the strikes. And whilst I don’t have an absolute number to give, I point to the message Stinelese shared earlier that whilst the total market came down in terms of deliveries to trade, all of it performed better than that on a competitive level. So there was an impact for sure, but we believe that will kind of stabilize over time because the shelves were not empty, consumers were not limited in terms of access to our products.

But thank you for your question.

Sanna Perala, Analyst, Nordea: Then the last one. The investments in Q1 were some EUR 11,000,000. How should we look at the level of this in full year ’twenty five? What’s the level of investments looking at the total year?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: You want to comment?

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Yes. So we have been communicating earlier that these big investments, what we are doing in Finland is in total about €45,000,000 So we started last year building the High Bay Warehouse, and this is the most kind of busiest year for the investments. So the major part of the investments will happen during the 2025.

Sanna Perala, Analyst, Nordea: All right. Thanks a lot.

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Thank you.

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: Yes. A few follow-up questions. On the volume drop in Finland and Baltics, roughly about 5%, Could you quantify how much of this was portfolio changes?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Again, difficult to give you an exact number because we have to take into account the Easter effect. Across the Baltics, we have to consider the excise duties that were increased, which had an impact on demand. So we have to look at that things in the context of the total market. But Finland and Denmark specifically, these are two countries where we have walked away from some unsustainable volume. Therefore, Denmark is perhaps the more significantly impacting aspect of the Baltic Sea region.

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: And talking about Denmark, you commented that most of the Baltic Sea region profitability drop was associated with Denmark. So is this more of a like a one off? Or is this that you’re seeing that the turnaround that you are currently carrying out in Denmark will take more time and we should expect the profitability to be under pressure longer time in Denmark?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: I’m not sure if we articulated as specifically as you just voiced in terms of the impact of Denmark. For sure, we have invested in Denmark in terms of marketing, extra marketing spend behind Jolly, and that’s really carrying dividends. We’re getting a tremendous consumer pull. We have a lot of interest from trade. We’re expanding our distribution.

We’re gaining new listings. So there’s a lot of positive momentum. The impact of that has been small in the first quarter. We expect more in the second quarter. But there, have walked away from some unhealthy volumes that impacts the total volume.

But your question was more around the source of the profitability loss. In that, we should look at the total market coming down and some G and A spend and what am I still missing that drives the majority of that change?

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Yes. I think the Baltic Sea region in general, what lowered the profitability is those reasons that Patrick mentioned, but also that we were preparing more the season. So we have been investing this year more in marketing and launching the novelties already in Qualtran one. So it is burdening with these costs more than last year. But yes, there is kind of the change going on in Denmark, so we have been taking away or the volumes have been lowering now in Denmark, and then we are shifting to the new phase.

And I think this is the kind of the changing time for that one. And yes, we are looking forward to more forward for the sustainable growth in profitability in Denmark. And for example, this Jolli demand is now looking very promising if we are looking for, for example, this year.

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Maybe coming back to your question still, if you think about Finland. Yes, portfolio choices have brought our volume down, but let’s remember that our volumes are down less than the total market. So in that sense, it suggests that we’ve done the right choices.

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: And then I wanted to touch upon the Belarus, that you have this ban on the dividends for until the end of this year. So do you think, I mean, the money that you are generating today that you can eventually pay it out? Or is there an anticipation that government somehow will impose a new tariff in order to take basically the profitability out of your subsidiary?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: In this marketplace, there are certain uncertainties that are ongoing. And it’s an ever changing environment. We’re tracking it closely. We still have control of our asset there, and it’s our people running the business, so we’re very much in charge. And as you stated, the dividend limitation is in force for 2024 and 2025.

So with that going away, we expect to return to normality. We haven’t heard or received any signals to the contrary on that part as of yet.

Moderator, Olvi Oyj: Thank you.

Jan Esenbaud, Analyst, Nordea: Jan Esenbaud, Nordea. Maybe one question because anywhere you are in the weather business, let’s say, early Q2. So we have had nice weather, at least in Finland. So and taking into account that last year, start of Q2 was, let’s say, still winter in Helsinki region, at least. So how if you can give any comments on how the Q2 has started with this kind of, let’s say, that good weather environment and also the Easter is now in Q2?

So just to get a little bit feeling of current trading.

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Yes. I think it’s dangerous to give too much specificity on the quarter and the run rate of this month as such. I do appreciate your the humor in your turn of phrase there as being in the weather business where I just want to emphasize we’re not within the beverage business. And whilst it would be always easy to refer to the weather impact, we’re trying to refrain from doing so, of course, recognizing that we’re coming into the season. There is seasonality in our business.

So the majority of our sales will be done during Q2 and Q3, as we all very well know. The weather always helps. The first rays of sunshine up in these latitudes where we’re coming out of a long period of darkness and cold always helps and creates excitement. I think for April, specifically, the Easter effect is still the more important one, being kind of the first moment of celebration in the kind of the annual calendar when it comes to this time of year.

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: And of course, we have to remember that the Easter is the first kind of spring seasonal sales spike that we will have. So now when it is the quarter two, so of course, it has an impact, as you saw, for the quarter one. But then the weathers are kind of changing from summer to summer. So last year, for example, in May, we had the great weather. Then in June, not that good.

So it differs a lot how it goes this year, and it’s very hard to predict. Of course, we are hoping for sunshine and warm weather.

Jan Esenbaud, Analyst, Nordea: And then maybe one question related to possible M and A actions. Your balance sheet is strong. So how you view the current environment, let’s say, that at least seems that valuation levels have maybe come down a bit. So do you see any opportunities on the M and A side?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Yes. So I think we came out with that in our Capital Markets Day review at the end of twenty twenty three, and we stated our intentions clearly, which is to look at not only organic, but also inorganic growth within the region of Europe. So this is work that’s ongoing, and we will communicate those details in due time.

Jan Esenbaud, Analyst, Nordea: Thanks.

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: Mari Wickesemow, SEB. One more question on the raw material outlook. I mean, we’ve seen malt barley prices come down year over year. Of course, have no idea of the upcoming harvest. But if you could discuss a bit on your raw material outlook and the different categories, multi barley, aluminum, glass, what you are seeing now?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Sure. Thank you. I’ll keep it quite top line because we haven’t opened up our hedging policies before. What you’re stating is correct on the barley price there, but it’s also something that’s weather bound It can change quite drastically.

What we’ve seen most recently is aluminum prices coming down from historic highs. And we have to bear in mind the perspective here. If we were to go back to the times before COVID, we’re still on aluminum roughly 20% higher than we were back then. So it’s not cheap, but it has come down from some historic highs. For how long, we don’t know.

And also on aluminum, it’s just one ingredient that goes into a can. The can price is affected by other things and there’s a shortness of supply. So that doesn’t necessarily mean that the can pricing per se is coming down, perhaps staying flat or even going up a bit is foreseeable. So it’s a mixed bag. But the good news, I suppose, is that things are more stable.

We’ve come away from those years of intensive price increases and huge inflation on all our raw materials. So things have subsided, but we’re still on a much higher level than where we were before COVID.

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: And of course, this geopolitical situation is affecting on the raw material and packaging material prices also. So all these custom tariffs and those do not have a direct effect on us, but it is creating uncertainty and volatility on the market. But as Patrick said, that we are in much higher level in the costs now than, for example, before the COVID times, and it seems that we have been there now a few years. And how does it look for the future, we do not know. But I think that the point is that, of course, we are then doing some hedging and make try to make sure that our supply is in the sustainable level in the market conditions.

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: And one question, I think in the report you mentioned a few times a competition in the retail. So if you could a little bit open up, I mean, the competition that is this price competition? And do you see how do you see pricemix developing from here across different markets?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Good question. Thank you. Yes, indeed, our reference was particular to grocery retail, so to the places where you shop your day to day food items. Competition is intense. And in practice, it means that the volume sold on deal is higher now than it used to be in the past.

As I mentioned, competition is always intense in these environments, both between the suppliers and also between the retail chains and operators. Everyone is fighting for the available spend that the households have. We’re part of this. This is something that, of course, we’ve become accustomed to, and we’re reacting on a local level with the types of campaigns that serve us well, that protect our profitability, but also importantly our share and our volumes. When you speak about mix, we have opportunities in mix.

We’ve been talking about that before that we have great growth potential in the non alcoholic space, a category that’s foreseen to grow for the long term. We’re already strong in beers. We’ve been able to sustain our strong shares within beers. And on the alcoholic side, there’s also growth to be seen, for instance, in hard seltzers and some other categories. Did that answer your question on the mix impact?

Mari Wickesemow, Analyst, SEB: Yes. Thank you. And then finally, I think it is this week when the government is discussing the potential change in the Finnish alcohol law and allowing wines in the grocery stores. So what’s your anticipation? And then what will be your action if wines will be allowed to the grocery stores?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: I think it’s difficult for us to comment on political evolutions. We saw the initial report, I believe, last week, which suggested that there’s alternatives with which to move forward. Now it’s up for the government to decide how they move or not. What we will do is live according to our values, which is to remain agile and prepared for any eventuality. We believe that the circumstances will always change.

So it’s just a question of being ready and able to adapt when that happens. As a great example, I can mention what we did last summer in 2024 when the alcohol law changed, allowing up to 8% products with up to 8% ABV on shelf in supermarkets in Finland. We had taken a conscious risk and prepared ourselves a few weeks ahead. So when the news came on Friday that it’s allowed to put the products on shelf on Monday, so we did. We were ready for it.

So we’re trying to be prepared for all kinds of eventualities. But what will happen, we shall see when they make the decisions.

Moderator, Olvi Oyj: Thank you. Okay. We have gotten a few questions through the chat. I think most of them we have already discussed through the questions in the room. But a couple of ones.

Maybe first, we can start with Belarus. So even though that was already discussed and that there’s an exit plan, but is the exit plan still standing? And does it mean that if the situation would change and the war would end, is there still a plan to sell the Belarus business?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Yes. Thank you for the question. It’s a question we tend to get quite often, and there’s no change to the statement we made in March of twenty twenty two. We’ve shared the evolution, the journey we’ve been on over the last couple of years with initiating the sales process then being faced by local legislation that prohibits a sale. And things have evolved since.

Yet today, you need a permit to sell, a permit we don’t have. So this is an ever changing and evolving situation that we’re tracking on a daily and weekly basis, and we’ll report as and when there are relevant changes to report on.

Moderator, Olvi Oyj: Thank you. Then another one also about Belarus regarding the payment of dividends. So can you advise how much of the €35,000,000 cash balance is from Belarus and how much is outside?

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: We have not specified the cash balance by country or by segment in the quarter report. So last time, the cash separated by segments, you can find from the financial statements ’24.

Moderator, Olvi Oyj: Thank you. And then final question is that can you specify the guidance by segments in any way? So are all the business segments expected to improve full year EBIT?

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: Well, I think this guidance is something that we started practicing last year. So we gave a guidance for the first time in terms of a numeric range. So for now, it stays as a total number with a range. If there are needs to change the range, we will do so. But I don’t foresee us this year coming in to comment around segment specific expectations.

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Yes. We had some specific comments when we released this year outlook, financial outlook, and you can find that from the quarter four report. So there were some specification related to segments and the expectations what we had for this year.

Moderator, Olvi Oyj: Thank you. That was all from the chat.

Patrick, Senior Executive/Host, Olvi Oyj: All right. Any final questions from the room? Otherwise, we thank you for your activity. Thank you for joining us also online. Happy with the amount of questions.

And we shall see you again after we have the Q2 results.

Tina/Lisa, Financial Executive, Olvi Oyj: Thank you.

Sanna Perala, Analyst, Nordea: Thanks.

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