Earnings call transcript: Orchid Island Capital Q2 2025 sees unexpected EPS loss

Orchid Island Capital Inc. reported a surprising second-quarter loss, with earnings per share (EPS) falling to -$0.16, significantly below the forecasted $0.14, resulting in a negative surprise of 214.29%. The company’s revenue, however, surged to $23.15 million, far exceeding the forecast of $3.7 million, with impressive year-over-year growth of 213.45% according to InvestingPro data. Despite the earnings miss, Orchid Island’s stock closed at $7.3, up 1.51% from the previous day, reflecting investor optimism driven by the revenue beat. The company, currently valued at $939M, appears overvalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Orchid Island reported a Q2 EPS loss of -$0.16, missing the forecast of $0.14.
• Revenue reached $23.15 million, a substantial increase over the expected $3.7 million.
• Stock price rose by 1.51% in aftermarket trading, closing at $7.3.
• The company repositioned its portfolio towards higher coupon mortgage-backed securities.
• Liquidity and leverage improvements were noted, with increased equity raising.

Company Performance

Orchid Island Capital experienced a challenging second quarter, with a reported loss of $0.29 per share, contrasting with a profit of $0.18 per share in the previous quarter. Despite this, the company managed to increase its revenue significantly, suggesting strong operational adjustments. The firm repositioned its portfolio towards higher coupon mortgage-backed securities, which may have contributed to the revenue surge.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $23.15 million, a significant increase from the forecast of $3.7 million.
• Earnings per share: -$0.16, compared to the forecasted $0.14.
• Book value per share decreased from $7.94 to $7.21.
• Total return for the quarter was negative 4.66%.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Orchid Island Capital’s actual EPS of -$0.16 was a stark contrast to the forecasted $0.14, marking a negative surprise of 214.29%. This significant miss is notable compared to previous quarters where the company met or exceeded expectations. However, the revenue of $23.15 million, a 525.68% surprise, provided a positive counterbalance to the earnings disappointment.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Orchid Island’s stock price increased by 1.51%, closing at $7.3 in aftermarket trading. This movement suggests that investors were encouraged by the revenue performance and potential future prospects, despite the EPS miss. The stock’s performance remains within its 52-week range of $5.685 to $9.005, indicating room for growth.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Orchid Island Capital expects the mortgage investment environment to remain favorable, with production coupon spreads around 200 basis points over swaps. The company anticipates continued steepening of the US Treasury curve and potential modest leverage increases, projecting a return on equity (ROE) range of 16-18%. Current InvestingPro data shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.3 and a concerning current ratio of 0.07, suggesting potential liquidity challenges ahead. Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $8.00, indicating potential upside from current levels.

Executive Commentary

CEO Robert Carley remarked, "We expect the market to stay favorable for mortgages," highlighting the company’s confidence in its strategic position. Additionally, Carley analogized, "The economy is a car... the Fed is the driver putting on brakes, but government deficits are a truck pushing it forward," emphasizing the complex economic environment.

Risks and Challenges

• Market volatility due to geopolitical tensions and tariff announcements.
• Steepening US Treasury curve and negative swap spreads.
• Housing market affordability challenges.
• Potential impacts of government deficits on market dynamics.
• Prepayment speed increases affecting mortgage-backed securities.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about potential capital-raising strategies and the company’s complex dividend calculation methodology. Executives provided insights into potential market scenarios and MBS spread movements, as well as expectations surrounding Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Full transcript - Orchid Island (ORC) Q2 2025:

Conference Call Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call for Orchid Island Capital. This call is being recorded today, 07/25/2025. At this time, the company would like to remind listeners that statements made during today’s conference call related at this time, the company would like to remind listeners that statements made during today’s conference call relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward looking statements subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Listeners are cautioned that such forward looking statements are based on information currently available on the company’s management on the management’s good faith. Belief with respect to future events are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward looking statements.

Important factors that could cause such differences are described in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company’s most recent annual report on Form 10 ks. The company assumes no obligation to update such forward looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumption or changes in other factors affecting forward looking statements. Now I would like to turn the conference over to the company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Robert Carley. Please go ahead, sir.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Thank you, operator, and good morning. As usual, we’ll be going through our deck over the course of the call. Hopefully, you’ve had a chance to download that from our website. We placed it up there yesterday afternoon. With me today is Hunter Haas, our Chief Investment Officer and Chief Financial Officer and Jerry Cintas, our Controller.

As usual, following the table of contents, first thing we will do is go over our financial highlights. Jerry will handle that for us. I will go through the market developments and focus on what could happen, how that impacted us, our performance and our decision making. And then Hunter will go over the portfolio characteristics and our hedge positions before we open up the call to questions. So with that, I will turn the call over to Gerry.

Jerry Cintas, Controller, Orchid Island Capital: Thank you, Bob. If you turn to Page five, we’ll start with the financial highlights of the quarter. During the quarter, we reported a loss of $0.29 per share compared to income of $0.18 per share in Q1. It should be noted that excluding realized and unrealized losses, that was a net income of $0.16 per share, which is the same as Q1. Book value decreased from $7.94 per share at 3.31 to $7.21 at $6.3 Total return for the quarter was negative 4.66% compared to 2.6% in Q1, and we reported $0.36 of dividends in both quarters.

Turning to Page six, we’ll go to portfolio highlights. We had average MBS during the quarter of $6,900,000,000 compared to just under $6,000,000,000 in Q1. We had our leverage ratio at 6,300,000,000.0 was 7,300,000,000.0 which is down from 7,800,000,000 at threethirty one. Our prepayment speeds during Q2 was 10.1% compared to 7.8% in Q1, and our liquidity at six thirty was up to 54% from 52%. On page seven is our summarized financial statements.

These are the same as what was in our earnings release last night, and we’ll have more detail presented with our 10 Q that will be filed today. So with that, I’ll turn it back over to Bob.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Thanks, Jerry. I’ll now go through the market developments for the quarter. And as we all know, there were two big events that occurred in the quarter, one much greater than the other, the first of which was the reciprocal tariffs announced in early April, what was known as Liberation Day. Later in the quarter, the administration to what became known as the one big beautiful bill was passed, was signed into law on July 4, although the heavy lifting to get the bill to the point where it could be signed occurred late in the quarter and it definitely had an impact on the market and outlook, although much less than what occurred early in the quarter. Obviously, what happened in early April was not quite as bad as the onset of COVID in March, but pretty significant.

There was obviously a lot of forced deleveraging. And there was a lot of concern in the market about a host of things, the sanctity of the dollar and the flight of capital out of The US and so forth. So it was clearly a very chaotic period. That being said, given that we’ve been doing this for a while, were quite well positioned for that. We had very high cash positions.

Our leverage was on the low end of our range. As a result of that, we were able to limit the deleveraging or selling, if you will, to less than 10%. And we in fact actually bought back a little over 1,100,000.0 shares really in the quarter at a substantial discount. Once the dust settled in the quarter and we kind of basically grinded sideways, we were able to we maintained a defensive position, but we were able to sell some shares. We actually did so at a slight discount to book, but we were able to generate a nice cushion, a cash cushion, if you will.

As I mentioned, we were still defensively positioned. We kept the leverage at the low end of the range. Now I’ll go through the deck and the slides and try to focus on the things that happened that were of most relevance to us. And there were two primary takeaways I want to focus on. On Slide nine, you see the curve, the US Treasury curve and the swap curve.

And obviously in the first thing I want to point out, if you look at that blue line there, that’s where the curve was last Friday. The green line is June and then March. You can see the curve has been steepening and that continued in this quarter. I don’t have a fair amount more to say about that as we go on. But also note on the right side, the SOFR swap curve and I want to point out if you look at these curves, the horizontal lines line up so you could effectively put all of these curves on the same.

And you can see the gap between the nominal curve, if you will, and the swap curve is wide and has been growing. And that’s significant for us. So that’s kind of the first takeaway. So swap spreads are becoming extremely negative. And for levered MBS investors who have to hedge their positions, using swaps is becoming a very attractive option for us because of the spreads that are available in the market as a result of that.

So that’s kind of point one. If you go to point two, that’s on Slide 10. So here we show some of the mortgage metrics. The top is just the spread that we show. And this is a lot of history, fifteen years of history going back.

Current coupon spread is a ten year. That’s a ten year treasury, not swap. As you can see, with respect to that spread, I mean, it’s still wide by historical standards, but it’s well off the extreme levels we saw in late twenty twenty three. But in the case of swaps, that’s not the case. If you look at the bottom left, we did show this every quarter.

These are normalized prices for selection of Fannie Mae thirty year coupons. So all we do is we set the price equal to 100 at the beginning of the quarter. As you can see, want to point out that even though the return for the index, mortgage index and the thirty year subcomponent were positive for the quarter, that’s just because there’s an income component of total return. Price returns was negative or close to negative in the case of everything but Fannie sixes. So you can see that prices just did not fully recover.

And in fact, as we’ve entered the third quarter, they’ve continued to soften. So that’s just keep that thought in mind for a second when you consider the following. When you look at Slide 11, this is a picture of volatility. In this case, we’re using a pretty common measure, three month by ten year normalized vol. This is what we would refer to as gamma.

But notice that in this one year look back period, as you saw in early April, vol spiked, which is what you would expect. And so that was the high reading for this one year period. But notice over the course of the quarter how much it fell. So we went from the local high to the local low over the course of one quarter. And if you look back in the middle of that graph, say the late twenty twenty four and 2025 when vol was also low, mortgages were doing very well.

But you look at where we are now with vol at the lowest levels of this period and they’re not. So it’s kind of that’s the second takeaway is this combination of relatively weak mortgage performance, even in the face of low volatility, which is counter to what we would expect. And so that means you have attractive assets to acquire and very effective ways to hedge them with the swap market. So those are the two primary takeaways I want to focus on. Continuing on with the rest of the deck, if you look at Slide 12, on the left hand side, you see various swap tenors, sevens, fives, I’m sorry, two year, five year, seven year and ten year.

And as you can see in this graph right around the April, these things dropped down precipitously. But note how the fact that they didn’t recover, they’ve trended sideways since. So, and what’s driving this and what is driving this is the following. With the government running persistent deficits in the market anticipating continued deficits, especially after the passage of the one big beautiful bill, that means that the market is in effect anticipating heavy treasury issuance. So in the face of very heavy treasury issuance, it’s as if nominal treasuries are cheapening to effectively has become the new risk free asset, which is a swap yield.

And so since the market expects this to continue, and I mentioned earlier that the one big beautiful bill was passed, and while it’s going to be very stimulative for the economy, it also if you look at it from a perspective of fiscal deficits, it’s not likely to cause a shrinkage of those. So a continuation of deficits, which means nominal treasuries have been cheapening relative to swap yields and that appears to be something we expect could continue for quite some time. On the bottom right, we show the composition of our hedge book weighted by DV01. And as you can see swaps, the green area, are over or almost 80%, futures at 21. Given what I’ve just said, we would expect that composition to shift going forward in favor swaps more for the obvious reason.

Moving on to Slide 13, this is a picture of the mortgage refinancing and housing market. On the left, can see the refi index versus mortgage rates. The song remains the same. The refi index is at historically low levels. Mortgage rates are high.

For the reasons I’ve been discussing, I would expect that those would continue to stay high. And just to give you some added color, this last week, existing home sales were released. Home prices are at all time highs. They continue to hit all time highs. The inventory to sales ratio, was at 4.7, typically six is considered kind of middle of the range.

But that being said, that’s the highest reading since 2016. So inventory levels are building. And when you consider that the consumer is relatively tentative given the uncertainty around tariffs and potential job losses, affordability is at multi years, if not decade lows and rates are high and likely to stay higher. What does this mean? Well, refinancing activity is likely to stay quite low.

And what that means then for carry, particularly higher coupons, is that carry could be very attractive. So I’m trying to paint a picture here that shows that based on what’s going on in the market, the outlook for mortgage and mortgage investing could be quite attractive. A few more slides before I turn over to Hunter, Slide 14. I’ve been showing this one for years or at least quarters rather. And you can see I just have on here the GDP of The US in dollars versus the money supply.

And the red line, as you can see, is the government continues to run large deficits and it’s keeping growth elevated. It’s really buttressing growth. And when you look at, for instance, what happened in ’twenty two and ’twenty three when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by over 500 basis points, yet the economy never really ran into recession. And even today in the face of these tariffs, the labor market appears resilient, the unemployment rate hasn’t grown and spending and consumer spending has remained at least resilient, if not very strong. And what this really means is that you have this deficit spending, which is really preventing the economy from slowing in the face of what would otherwise be typically slow the economy quite a bit, whether it’s the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs or the Fed hikes.

And so I expect that to continue, which means that the economy, I would expect to continue to be quite robust. I want to go to a few slides in the appendix. I’ll give you a moment to turn the page. If you look at Slide 26, this is new. What we’re showing is the term premium as measured by the ACM model.

I am not an expert in the ACM model, but I can tell you that it is one widely used and well respected. And what you see in this data, this goes back twenty five years, is that for a long period of time up until around 2015, term premiums were positive and in some cases quite high up to 300 basis points. But then we entered a long period of where they were negative or rarely positive, but that’s changed and we’re starting to see them move higher. And for the reasons I’ve been discussing, I think that that’s going to continue to be the case. And so with respect to say, for instance, the curve shape, while we may not get as much Fed cuts as many Fed cuts as the market anticipates, we may.

But even if we don’t, I think this upward pressure on longer term rates is going to keep the curve steep, which is again attractive for investors such as ourselves. On Slide 27, another new slide, what we’re showing here is the spread of the current coupon mortgage to both a seven year swap in the case of a blue line and a ten year swap versus a red line. As you can see where we are now, we’re in the neighborhood of 200 basis points for the current coupon mortgage to a seven year swap. We haven’t been at those levels since late twenty twenty three when the Fed was just finishing up in a massive tightening cycle and mortgages had suffered mightily. So here we are right back in those levels.

And I also, conjunction with what I’ve been saying about the market, generally speaking, all this paints a very attractive picture for mortgages. The final slide before I turn it over to Hunter is slide 28. I’ve been talking about this one as well for quite a while. What you see here are bank holdings of mortgages as well as the Federal Reserve. And as we can see in the red line, the Fed just continues to let the mortgages run off their balance sheet.

Banks have been growing slowly, but very slowly. The rate of growth is minimal and they represent one of the most, if not the most important marginal buyer of mortgages. If you look at the mortgage market today, obviously REITs have been growing, raising capital, but they’re still not nearly as big as the bank community. The money manager community has been seeing inflows. They’ve been overweight mortgages for some time.

So they’re a good source of demand, but their flows can go both ways and be volatile. So what’s really been missing is this big 800 pound gorilla, the banking community from coming in and buying mortgages. And really, I think that’s what’s a big reason why mortgages have yet to perform well and we still trade at these cheap levels. So going forward, what could change that? What could cause the banks to become more engaged?

Well, one of the points mentioned often is these uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Hopefully that’s behind us relatively soon. We’ll see regulatory relief that’s in the works. Then obviously Fed rate cuts, would further steepen the curve. All of these could combine to cause the banks to be more engaged and that would represent a very much a big win behind in the sales of mortgages.

I guess the final one might be if the economy does get really strong and deposit growth grows that the banks they could buy more. It definitely is a source of potential tightening, but we’re just not sure when and if that’s going to occur. So that’s kind of my synopsis of all the macro developments in the market and what those mean for us. And with that, I will turn it over to Hunter. Thanks, Bob.

If you’re following along, we’ll go back towards the investment portfolio section starting on Slide 16. During the second quarter, we continued to reposition our portfolio up in coupon. Weighted average coupon increased to from 5.45 from 5.32 at the end of the first quarter, while the realized yield slightly declined 5.41 to 5.38. Our economic interest spread remains healthy at two forty three basis points. We rotated out of lower pay up Fannie 4s and 5s, $334,000,000 and $137,000,000 respectively, and increased 5,500,000.0 six’s and six point five’s by $555,000,000 $145,000,000 and $86,000,000 respectively.

This marks a continued strategic shift away from our barbell approach towards a more concentrated production coupon bias. This has served us well in this recent curve steepening environment that Bob has been discussing. Turning to Slide 17, this slide shows the evolution of our coupon allocation over the past couple of quarters. You can see the meaningful decline in the exposure to 3.5 to 4.5% coupons and the corresponding rise in 5.5% to 6.5% buckets. This shift is deliberate.

Lower coupon pools, while theoretically easier to hedge, have shown elevated spread volatility during risk off events largely due to redemption driven selling by the money manager community that Bob was just talking about. The combination of the heightened spread volatility, considerably lower realized yields and relatively higher hedge costs resulting from a steeper yield curve have all contributed to the rationale for us to shift away from the barbell into a more production coupon focus. Turning to Slide 18, our repo funding remains very stable. We had a blended rate of 4.48 in the second quarter, which was basically unchanged from the first quarter. Our average maturity shortened slightly to thirty five days.

Our all in economic cost of funds rose modestly from $2.83 to $2.95, mainly due to swap portfolio dynamics. And we ended the quarter with our leverage at 7.3, down slightly from 7.5 reflecting our disciplined focus on keeping leverage stable and evolve the times. The funding environment remains very constructive with repo spreads relatively stable outside of period in tightness. And at 06/30/2025 and continuing into the third quarter, we had excess borrowing capacity with 24 active lenders and a few more sources of funding in the queue. Turning to slide 19, just sort of briefly discuss our hedge positions.

Our hedge ratio stood at 73% of our repo balance at quarter end, down slightly due to the asset mix shift that I discussed earlier. Going forward, we’ll likely shorten the hedge mix and thereby increase the notional balance of the hedges commensurate with the shorter duration of the assets we’ve been adding. The book is still biased towards interest rate swaps as discussed earlier, 78% of our DB01 in fact, and the rest is in futures predominantly treasury futures. Current configuration leaves us modestly positioned for a higher rate bias and a steeper curve. Mark to market on the hedges in the second quarter totaled $0.47 a share or $53,800,000 with the majority stemming from our swap positions.

While both swaps and treasury futures contributed to losses, the treasury hedges outperformed our swap hedges and this reflects the sharp tightening in swap spreads following April’s hedge fund stop outs when levered players were forced to unwind basis trades under stress and distorting the price of the treasury curve. Going to slide 20, I have a couple of points to make here. You’ll see the full breakdown. This is showed you our full breakdown of all of our hedges, swaps, futures and TBA positions. Our swap book had a weighted average maturity of five point seven years with a average fixed rate of three thirty.

Futures remain concentrated in five, sevens and 10, so the FDs, GYs and the Ultras. And at the end of the quarter, we didn’t have any short TBAs or swaps positions. Slide 21 shows how combination of the assets and the hedges lead to our current risk profile. This shows our interest rates, page 21 shows our interest rate sensitivity by coupon. Our portfolio is now, as I mentioned, more weighted towards lower duration assets and we have maintained a slightly higher duration on our hedges, giving us the curve steepening bias that I alluded to.

We expect positioning to be this current positioning to be resilient in a bear steepener or higher rate scenario and while still capturing meaningful carry because spreads of mortgage assets over swaps are very elevated at the moment. Slide 22, our dollar DV01 for RMBS is 2,285,000.000, while the hedges is 2,492,000.000 leaving a modest negative duration gap of two zero seven ks. This equates to 0.17 exposure in an up 50 parallel shock, which is very manageable. Our strategy keeps us agile across rate paths with modest exposure, as I alluded to, to curb shape and lower rates. Slide 23 is our prepayment experience.

Prepayments remain pretty muted overall with a slight seasonal uptick, higher coupons continue to see very modest speed increases. The most of them are still in kind of the mid to high single digit range and our deep discount positions continue to benefit from favorable prepay speeds, mostly in kind of the mid to upper single digit range, which provides a consistent source of income. Just kind of wrapping things up and giving a little bit of an outlook, Q2 open with a severe volatility reminiscent of March 2020. The tariff announcements triggered a violent risk off move and widespread deleveraging. Thanks to our ample liquidity and strong hedge positioning, we avoided large scale forced sales.

As the market stabilized, we raised $140,000,000 in new equity and deployed it into higher coupon specified pools, expanding the portfolio modestly by quarter end. Mark to market hedge losses totaled $0.47 per share or $0.05 $38 with swaps accounting for the disproportionate share going back due to the violent swap spread tightening move that we saw in April. Portfolio shift towards higher coupons has shortened overall duration and as a result, our hedge ratio as a percent of our repo balance declined slightly. Going forward, we may modestly narrow that gap. Looking ahead, we believe the investment environment for Agency RMBS remains extremely attractive.

Production coupon spreads are apparently 200 basis points roughly over swaps, which is a historically wide level that presents a very compelling total return potential. Even without some sort of catalyst driven basis recovery, Our larger equity base and refined coupon allocation and reduced leverage also provide us with a lot of flexibility going forward to be opportunistic. Our higher coupons specified pools offer a lot of carry and our hedge structure by being biased towards slightly longer tenures is designed to mitigate upward interest rate shocks, the effect of upward interest rate shocks and a steepening curve. So with that, I will turn it back over to Bob for some concluding remarks. Thanks, Hunter.

Just a couple of things I’ll mention before we turn over to question and answer. We didn’t dwell a lot on funding. We have seen some volatility in funding spreads around month, quarter and year end. Three, four or five basis points generally is the range. Otherwise, I would say funding has been stable.

We’ve had no issues whatsoever adding repo counterparties when we need it. As we’ve seen, we’ve been growing. If anything, the complaint we hear from our repo counterparties is they are asking for more bonds, not less. So I would say, characterize funding as ample for our asset class with spreads that are somewhat choppy around period ends, but otherwise fairly stable. And then I suspect we may hear this question, I’ll be glad to talk about it more.

With respect to GSE privatization, I think it’s not on the immediate horizon. I think it could happen, but our basic takeaway is that with mortgage or housing affordability at multi decade lows, anything that has any risk of causing mortgage spreads to widen is not something that’s going to be pursued. And even if it does, the president has already said, I don’t know, it’s just a statement not law, but saying that they would maintain the implicit guarantee of mortgages. So, that would basically de risk that if it were to occur. Again, who’s to say if that actually became law, but at least with the perspective of the current administration and they would try to maintain that.

So couple that’s about it. Otherwise, would just reiterate, we expect the market to stay favorable for mortgages. We talked about swap spreads being where they are that could continue to erode. We’ll see what this price in the market. I think it’s quite a bit, but it could potentially get worse.

Otherwise, evolving low, curve steep and mortgages looking quite attractive from a carry perspective, all bode well. So with that, I’ll turn the call over to questions, operator.

Conference Call Operator: Thank you. Our first question comes from Jason Weaver with Jones Trading. Your line is open.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: Hey guys, good morning.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Good morning, Jason.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: So I get a number of about 18,800,000.0 increase in shares over the quarter. I guess that squares with the 140,000,000 capital raise mentioned. I wonder what’s your position towards raising additional capital here given the incremental ROE opportunity that you’re seeing?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Well, it depends on where the stock trades. We would like to see it obviously higher. Let’s just talk about ROEs. I would say, obviously, depends on your coupon mix and leverage ratio. But let’s just assume for the moment, a leverage ratio of eight, which is above where we are, but it’s a nice round number.

And I think that increasing our leverage could be warranted in this environment, given everything we’ve said. So let’s just start with eight and our current coupon mix. In other words, what we have in the portfolio today, I would say ROEs are 16, maybe 16.5. If you were to stretch the composition buys it more up in coupon, you could probably get to about 18. So that’s kind of the range I would say which is available in the market.

And with terms of capital raising, it’s question of where the price is. We would accept slight dilution to book, which we did in the second quarter, given the chaotic nature of the market and the fact that spreads were so attractive. But going forward, ideally, we would like to be at book or better all the time and these are still attractive levels, which we really haven’t seen in a while.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: Agreed. And that’s helpful. Thank you for that. I was also wondering, given the stance towards high coupon positioning, how you’re thinking of the premium risk in those say six and six point five pools, I see either a point or three points of premium today on generics. Maybe that just squares with your view that rates stay higher for longer in the long end.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Yeah, I would say so. And we tend to buy, and I’ll let Hunter speak of this more like, we tend to buy lower pay up poles and the prepayment experience on those has been very good. The housing market is in a real challenging situation with from a perspective of affordability and the ability for people to refinance. And with the curve staying the way it is, with deficits running the way they are, and the economy is strong and resilient as it is. It’s really hard for me, absence of some external shock, to see a big rally in the long end.

Now you can argue that’s the obvious pain trade it is, but I think carry absent in a shock and higher coupons is very attractive.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: Yeah. Got it. Go ahead.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: First of all, just to chime in on that, of our premium specified pools are you know, have some sort of a story to them. So that’s the first line against, you know, some sort of a large rally and premium risk. So we’ve focused on stories that are relatively inexpensive, try to kind of focus inside of an extra point. But those stories have held up really well as we’ve had these small kind of micro refi waves over the course of the last year or so. And so I think we’re well positioned.

We still do have a decent portion of the portfolio in the discount coupon. So that always helps in that big rally scenario. We would see expected to see those assets do very well while the higher coupons specifically like the 6 and a half and maybe even the sixes underperform a little bit. And we’ve seen that happen as we’ve pushed towards the lower end of the rate range, here in the last several months. And the strategy seems to be working relatively well.

We keep enough exposure to discounts, even if they’re more recently just slight discounts, so like fives and the five and a halfs, that I think we’re pretty well diversified for both Little Rally and Refi Wave as well as a sell off. That’s the other side of it is the sixes and six point fivees have done incredibly well as we push towards the higher end of the recent range. That’s how we think about it.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: Got it. Thank you. And one more if I may. Did you give an updated quarter to date book value? Apologies if I missed it during the prepared remarks.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: We did not. And as of last night, and these numbers are not audited, obviously, it’s just our best guess estimate. We were down about 3¢ quarter to date. Not 3%, 3 pennies.

Jason Weaver, Analyst, Jones Trading: 3¢. Thank you very much. Appreciate the time. Yep.

Conference Call Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Mikhail Goberman with Citizens JMP. Your line is open.

Mikhail Goberman, Analyst, Citizens JMP: Hey. Good morning, guys. Hope every hey. Hope everybody is doing well. Thanks as usual for the detailed slide deck.

Just a quick question on prepay speeds. There was a bit of a spike up in the second quarter. What is your sort of outlook for the third quarter in terms of prepays?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: I would say very muted. Consider that the second quarter is typically the peak seasonal period. Now that’s not a premium story or discount story. That’s just the nature of the turnover. It was very muted given that.

And that was the brief refi spike was really just because of the rally that occurred early in the quarter. I don’t expect that to continue much at all. And, you know, again, to the extent we continue to see pressure on longer term rates, I don’t really see how you can have that come back meaningfully. I would say I expect them to be muted. Yeah.

And we’ve added part of that was just the natural seasoning of the portfolio, in conjunction with a small refi opportunity, similar to sort of what we saw at the end of, September, October pushing into December and January speeds. So I think going forward we should be good shape and we’ve also added a lot of newer issue spec pools in the upper coupon range. So that should pull that weighted average speed down a little bit going forward.

Mikhail Goberman, Analyst, Citizens JMP: So probably expect something with a eight

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: or low nine handle as opposed to

Mikhail Goberman, Analyst, Citizens JMP: almost eight in the first quarter, you’d say?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Yeah. I don’t have that much. What slides is that on? 23? Yeah.

I mean, three months fee was $8.09. Is that what you’re referring to? And then $14.04 and some of the stickers. Yeah, I don’t know if we get to single digits in those coupons, but I think they will remain in the teens with possible exception of sevens. So I don’t even be mid low to mid teens, I would think by the end of the year.

So I think that the carrying those is going to continue to be good. And combination of relatively muted speeds and the dollar prices that we’re looking at the yields and those are in the mid to high fives, I believe. I wanna say, I don’t know you have it in here, but 6 and a half, I think they’re in the $5.70, $5.65, $5.75 range. And I would expect that to be maintained. That’s right.

Mikhail Goberman, Analyst, Citizens JMP: Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Yep.

Conference Call Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jason Stewart with Janney Montgomery Scott. Your line is open.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: I don’t have one on the buybacks. On the issuance, it was somewhere around and this is there’s no precise way to measure this because you don’t necessarily know what book value is at the moment you’re selling shares. I tend to just look at end of day book to compare that to the issuance price, which I’m not going to say is absolutely the best way. It was somewhere around $0.02 0 or $0.21 negative in the second quarter, and it was about a positive $0.21 or $0.22 in the first quarter. But we sold more shares in the second quarter.

So the combination of the two was about 99.5% of book for the first six months of the year. Net of fees. Yes, net of fees using that methodology.

Jason Stewart, Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott: Okay. All right. Thank you for that. And then just on the ROE range relative to the dividend. I know there’s tax differences, but I mean, we think about the dividend today on a, let’s use $7.24 for current book value, that’s a 99 payout plus cost to operate relative to the ROE that you’re talking about in the high teens, could

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: you just help

Jason Stewart, Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott: me think through how you put those two and how we should think about the tax versus economic return difference?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Okay. Well, first of all, keep in mind that the mark to market of the portfolio affects the yield. So obviously, as you mark the portfolio down, the yield is going to go higher. And I think that’s capturing a part of that. And you also think of it this way, whenever the mark to market of portfolio occurs, you also have a realized or unrealized loss.

So that dividend yield might be 20%, but you’ve also incurred a mark to market loss. Now that doesn’t impact the dividend per se, but when you think of it from the total return perspective, yeah, you’re paying a higher dividend, but you’ve got a mark to market loss. So what’s the net of that and compare that to what you’re earning on new capital. And also keep in mind that for tax purposes, when you close out a hedge, if the hedge is in the money, you are required by tax law to allocate that equity over the balance of the hedge period. So when you look at the dividend we pay, some it’s driven by taxable income.

Some of that is a result of closed hedges. So they don’t, there’s no, that cash isn’t necessarily sitting in an escrow account. So if at any point in time you have a period where market moves and your hedges go into money and your mortgage assets go out of the money, you’re gonna get margin call activity. So you’re gonna be sending out cash to your repo counterparties, you’re gonna be taking in cash from your hedge counterparties, the net of that could be zero. So your cash position could literally not change.

Under tax law, you have to take that equity in those hedges. And let’s say you closed your hedges, all of them just for argument’s sake, at the end of that period. All of that open equity would have to be used to reduce interest expense over the balance of the hedge period. So when you calculate your dividend for tax purposes, you offset interest expense incurred over that period and then reduce it by that open equity. But that cash doesn’t exist.

That’s just an artifact of the tax law. Now under the tax law, you might have capital losses in that period, but those don’t affect the dividend calculations generally. In fact, with respect to calculating say taxes on under distribution of REIT earnings, you ignore capital gains. So those are kind of thrown out the window for that purposes. So in our dividend, it’s capturing those effects.

So the one you have this interest expense adjustment, but you also have the fact that your portfolio in this period went down in value. So now when you look at that yield as a percentage of the current mark to market value of the portfolio, it appears very high. So when we give you a ROE, that’s on a flat line basis. So from the perspective of total return, that’s just the carry. When you look at the historical, it’s a combination of carry and mark to market gains or losses.

Jason Stewart, Analyst, Janney Montgomery Scott: Right. Does that help? So, yeah, no, that’s helpful. And so would it be fair to say that the dividend policy right now is sort of being driven by the taxable distribution requirement? And if that’s right, how long till that converges with maybe go forward economics?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: I don’t have that in front of me. I’m going to say it’s maybe a year or two more. The bulk of it will be gone by then. That’s also keep in mind, keep in mind this is important. As we’ve grown, that’s getting diluted, right?

So the dollar amount a year ago and the impact it has on the July 2024 dividend and the July 2025 dividend, because we’re larger on a per share basis, that dollar that’s going down. And so depends on what happens to the size of the company in the next year or two, just the exact magnitude of that effect. If we were to continue to grow that effect would become more and more diluted. I got you. Okay, that’s really helpful.

Jason, the first seven months of this year, our taxable income projections are right on top of our dividend distribution. Got it. That makes sense. Alright. Thanks, Connor.

Thanks, Bob. Certainly. Thanks, Jason.

Conference Call Operator: One moment for our next question. The next question comes from Eric Hagen with BTIG. Your line is open.

Eric Hagen, Analyst, BTIG: Hey, Eric. Hey, thanks. Hey, how are you doing, Hey, Eric. As a matter of clarity, the book value update, does that include the dividend the accrual for the dividend or Yes. Okay.

Okay. You guys are always so thoughtful around market conditions. I mean, do you expect MBS spreads are more likely to widen or tighten into an interest rate rally? Specifically for the current coupons, are there scenarios where you feel like we get a curve steepener with lower rate ball? And how would you respond to that?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Mortgages have been directional of late. A meaningful rally depends what drives it. Don’t know. I think if it’s a classic sort of rolling over of credit, you’re would definitely see probably a pronounced widening into a rally like that. So, economy starts to break and credit cycle rolls over.

I don’t know that that’s our house view, but, I think it’s certainly a risk that we have to think about. And, but for, you know, a more orderly market, like, we’ve had over the course of the last, couple of years at least, I think we’ll push down to as we push down to kind of the lower end of the recent rate range, you’ll see weakness in higher coupons as we would expect and a little bit of a tightening in the slight discounts. I think that those will do those will continue to do well. And the opposite is true if we continue to have a very strong economy, which is I think kind of the way we lean. We could see re steepening of the curve from the front end as Fed cuts get pushed out of the very front end of the curve.

And, you know, some of the weakness that Bob talked about in the longer end of the curve during his prepared remarks resulting from much higher treasury issuance. I think we’re seeing that continue to play out. We saw it in the swap spreads in April. And so we’ve got our eye on that. I know that wasn’t specifically the risk you were addressing, but that’s what we’ve been keeping our eye on.

I don’t see the potential for significant widening from here. And the way I’ll approach it is just from the perspective of who the players are in the market. If you look at it, the marginal buyer to a large extent has been REITs and money managers, fast money hedge funds are in and all the time banks have not been involved much in what they tend to buy or floaters anyway. So for instance, if you have the economy rollover and credit became a concern, I think money managers, if anything, they’re going to increase their allocation to mortgages. From the perspective of the meaningful steepening of the curve, let’s say the economy weakens and the Fed now is going to aggressively cut, which I don’t think is likely to happen.

But if it did, I think you could see banks become a more meaningful marginal buyer. But in any of these scenarios, whatever this perturbation is to the market, I think it results in more buying of mortgages, not less. It’s, know, I just really, we’re pretty cheap here right now. It’s just hard to see us really getting a lot cheaper. That shock, I don’t know what that is, frankly.

Eric Hagen, Analyst, BTIG: Right. But the house view generally is that you don’t feel like MBS spreads really reflect the likelihood for the Fed to cut rates before year end and the Fed needs to deliver a cut and that’s going to catalyze MBS spreads to be tighter?

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Maybe. I mean, we’ve been talking about Fed cuts for so long. We go all the way back to ’23 and ’24, or not 2324 and earlier this year, everybody’s expecting the Fed to cut. It just keeps getting pushed out. The economy is too resilient.

It’s here’s my metaphor. You get one of these a year. So my metaphor is the economy is a car. It’s driving down the road. And if the car goes too fast, if we grow too fast, the Fed intervenes to slow the economy.

So in my metaphor, the driver of the car is the Fed and they put on the brakes to slow the car. But then you have this government running these massive deficits and that in my metaphor is a truck that’s behind the car and it just keeps pushing it. So no matter how much the Fed tries to put on the brakes, these deficits just keep pushing it. And that’s going to just continue to be the case. Now, we think about it, what’s the potential growth rate of The US economy?

2%, 2.5%? And we’re running deficits at multiples of that. So I just think the Fed’s going to be continue to be challenged containing inflation. And everything in this big beautiful bill is extremely stimulative. They’re going to full expensing of factories, Trump’s negotiating trade deals where all these countries have to agree to spend money in The US building.

The multiplier effects of these things are significant. CapEx has a greater impact on growth than the housing market in terms of a multiplier. And it’s just all these factors combined, I just don’t see how the economy does anything but stay strong, if not get stronger, and inflation stay the same or maybe even get worse. So that’s my personal view. How that leads to Fed cuts, don’t know.

That being said, I think the curve can continue to even steepen just because the term premium continues to grow and treasury issuance gets worse. I think it’s really a question of what is neutral, right? So if somebody at the Fed decides that rates are too high, in spite of all the things that we just discussed, then, you know, they may cut rates a couple times. I’m not sure if they need to, but they may do it. You know?

They might revisit what neutral is. Decide that four and a half is pretty close.

Eric Hagen, Analyst, BTIG: I appreciate your thoughtful responses as always. Thank you, guys.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: All right. Thank you.

Conference Call Operator: And I’m not showing any further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Robert Cawley for any further remarks.

Robert Carley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Orchid Island Capital: Thank you, operator. Thanks, everybody. If you have any questions that come up later or if you happen to miss the call and want to listen to the replay and then trigger that triggers a call, we’ll be glad to take any and all calls. Our number is (772) 231-1400. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

Thank you.

Conference Call Operator: Well, and gentlemen, that concludes today’s presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

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