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ORIX Corporation reported a robust Q2 2025 performance, with a record net income of JPY 271.1 billion, marking a 48% increase year-over-year. The company raised its full-year net profit forecast from JPY 380 billion to JPY 440 billion. Following these results, ORIX's stock price rose by 1.42%, closing at JPY 3,938, up from its previous close of JPY 3,883. According to InvestingPro data, ORIX has achieved a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating exceptional financial strength, and has been trading near its 52-week high of JPY 4,011.
Key Takeaways
- ORIX achieved a record first-half net income, increasing by 48% year-over-year.
- The company raised its full-year net profit forecast to JPY 440 billion.
- Stock price increased by 1.42% following the earnings announcement.
- ORIX established a $2.5 billion joint PE fund with Qatar Investment Authority.
- The company is targeting an 11% ROE by fiscal year 2028.
Company Performance
ORIX Corporation's Q2 2025 performance demonstrated significant growth, driven by strategic investments and a diversified business model. The company's record net income of JPY 271.1 billion reflects its strong operational capabilities and market positioning. This performance is particularly notable given the competitive landscape and economic conditions.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: Not specified in the call, but significant growth implied by net income and profit forecasts.
- Earnings per share: Not directly provided, but the increase in net income suggests strong EPS growth.
- Pre-tax profit: JPY 391.5 billion, up JPY 134.5 billion year-over-year.
- Total shareholder returns expected to reach JPY 320.7 billion.
Market Reaction
Following the earnings announcement, ORIX's stock price rose by 1.42%, reflecting investor confidence in the company's improved financial outlook and strategic initiatives. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of JPY 4,011, indicating strong market sentiment.
Outlook & Guidance
ORIX has raised its full-year net profit forecast to JPY 440 billion, reflecting its positive outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The company is focused on sustainable profit growth and aims to achieve an 11% ROE by fiscal year 2028. Strategic initiatives include expanding asset management functions and continuing portfolio optimization.
Executive Commentary
"We will continue to work toward achieving a midterm business plan and to achieve the long-term vision through various tactics and measures," said Hidetake Takahashi, COO. He emphasized the company's commitment to growth and its positive outlook for the coming year.
Kazuki Yamamoto, Head of IR, stated, "We need to continuously grow. Otherwise, we will never get to 11% ROE," highlighting the company's focus on achieving its financial targets.
Risks and Challenges
- Potential challenges in the U.S. market could impact future performance.
- Economic uncertainties and currency fluctuations may affect profitability.
- The ongoing need for capital recycling and strategic investments poses execution risks.
- Competitive pressures in the financial services industry could impact growth.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about ORIX's joint PE fund strategy with the Qatar Investment Authority and its approach to achieving ROE targets. The company's strategy to address challenges in the U.S. market and its capital recycling efforts were also key topics of discussion.
Full transcript - Orix T (8591) Q2 2026:
Nakane, IR Sustainability Promotion Department Facilitator, ORIX Corporation: Now that it's time, I would like to begin the ORIX Corporation's second-quarter financial results briefing for the fiscal year ending in March 2026. Thank you for joining us. I'll be the facilitator. I'm from the IR Sustainability Promotion Department. My name is Nakane. We have two speakers today. We have a Director, Representative Executive Officer, President, and COO, Hidetake Takahashi, as well as our Operating Officer, Head of IR, Kazuki Yamamoto. The first half will be presented by Takahashi, the second half by Yamamoto. We will have a Q&A session. We are planning to have 60 minutes for this briefing session. Takahashi-san.
: Thank you.
Nakane, IR Sustainability Promotion Department Facilitator, ORIX Corporation: Thank you very much for taking the time out of your busy schedule to attend the ORIX Group's financial results briefing today. I'm Hidetake Takahashi, ORIX Group COO. I'll explain the key initiative in business progress toward achieving the long-term vision announced in May this year, which is making impact through alternative investments and operation and business solutions, as well as management indicators of 15% ROE and JPY 1 trillion in net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2035. Following this, Kazuki Yamamoto, who is in charge of management planning and IR, will explain the second-quarter financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026. If you could please refer to page three, there are five points that I'd like to convey today. First, I'd like to discuss the revision to our earnings forecasts.
Our first half, all three categories—finance, operation, investment—performed well, and capital recycling is also progressing smoothly. As a result, we decided to raise the net profit forecast from the previous JPY 380 billion to JPY 440 billion. We also revised the four-year dividend forecast per share from JPY 132.13 based on a net profit of JPY 380 billion to JPY 153.67. In addition, as we move forward, proceed with optimizing our portfolio and capital structure. Considering the completion of the sale of Green Corps Energy announced yesterday, we have decided to increase the amount of our share buyback program from JPY 1 billion to JPY 150 billion. Kazuki Yamamoto will explain more details shortly. The second point is the establishment of a PE fund together with the Qatar Investment Authority, which was announced yesterday. ORIX is strengthening our asset management function to help us achieve the long-term vision.
As a milestone, we aim to achieve 11% ROE and JPY 100 trillion in AUM by the fiscal year ending in March 2028. Since the establishment of a PE investment segment in 2012, we have executed over 30 investments in Japan, and all utilizing our own balance sheet. We have reached an agreement with the Qatar Investment Authority to establish a fund aiming at investing in Japanese companies. For the first time, we will incorporate third-party funds into this business. Through this fund, which has a total scale of $2.5 billion, we will expand our investment, including those in a large-scale project. ORIX will contribute 60%, and QIA, Qatar Investment Authority, 40%. The main investment target will be business action-type deals, privatization of listed companies, and carve-outs with an expected investment size of JPY 30 billion or larger in EV projects.
We will intend to continue strengthening our asset management function, including our business segments. The third point is our future business expansion with Hilco Global. In September, we acquired a U.S. company, Hilco, a subsidiary. Hilco provides services globally, such as evaluation and disposal of movable assets like inventory and equipment, intangible assets like IP and trademarks, and ABL, asset-backed lending. ORIX USA will position Hilco as a platform for creation of ABL investment funds, strengthening its origination capability and expanding the private credit business. Similar to the domestic PE fund mentioned earlier, this is a strategic investment to aid the expansion of our asset management business. Further, Hilco's asset evaluation services are a countercyclical business. In an uncertain economic environment, we believe we have acquired a fee-based business at a good time.
Hilco's evaluation capability, asset disposal expertise will be utilized in assessing risk as we expand credit globally. The fourth point, Osaka IR project, integrated resort. We aim to open the IR in Osaka City around fall of 2030, and construction began in April this year. In September, some changes were made in the existing plan. Primarily, these involve higher costs after taking inflation into account from approximately JPY 1.27 trillion to approximately JPY 1.51 trillion. After carefully reviewing business income and expenditure plan, we believe that the higher costs will not significantly impact the project profitability. The Osaka Kansai Expo concluded successfully in October. We were able to confirm growing inbound demand in the Osaka Kansai area, with many foreign tourists visiting Osaka, which is also a birthplace of ORIX.
The Kansai area, we are engaged in the development and operation of our sales office with Offer Financial, which offers financial services, Kansai 3 Airports, and Umekita Project and Kyocera Dome. We also operate businesses such as hotels and inns. We will maximize synergies by adding Osaka IR to these resources. Finally, my final point is portfolio optimization. As I discussed in May, the most important measures to achieve our ROE target are disciplined portfolio management, sophisticated risk management, and new business creation. Those three points. We have begun utilizing a dashboard to visualize the status of our business portfolio in finer detail and are progressing with our portfolio optimization. We have sold all of our parts of shares in Green Corps Energy, ORIX, Credit, and Nomad, and USA Leasing Canara, Robeco, and other businesses.
We will continue to review our portfolio based on our four criteria: growth potential, capital efficiency, impact on credit rating, and group synergies. We will continue to revisit our portfolio. Furthermore, in July, ORIX Bank paid a dividend of JPY 30 billion to ORIX Group. We will also optimize the capital scale of other group companies, not just the bank. As of the end of September 2025, the AUM became JPY 88 trillion, bringing us one step closer to the medium-term target of JPY 100 trillion. We will also continue to proceed with a transition to an asset-light portfolio. Out of the plan that we disclosed, in the mid to long-term, corporate value enhancement is in ROE in order to further improve the efficiency of the capital use.
All the measures that I mentioned that we carried out in the last six months is a good sign that we are making the right stride toward achieving a midterm business plan. We will continue to work toward achieving a midterm business plan and to achieve the long-term vision through various tactics and measures. That's all from me. Next, Yamamoto will explain about the most recent financial results. Please go to page five of the presentation material. First, I would like to talk about the first-half result and an update to our four-year forecast. Net income for the first half was JPY 271.1 billion, a record high for the first half year, and an increase of JPY 88.2 billion, up 48% compared to the same period last year. Our first half, we achieved a healthy JPY 71.0 billion initial four-year net income forecast, and ROE reached an annualized figure of 12.7%.
This is a result of a contribution from gains over sales and valuation gains from a large exit deal such as Green Corps Energy. As explained by the President, it also reflects that our efforts to enhance profitability through portfolio optimization are beginning to bear results. We raised our four-year profit forecast upward, as our COO, Takahashi, explained. The four-year profit forecast is JPY 440 billion, expanded the share buyback program to JPY 150 billion. Our four-year ROE is forecasted at 10.3%, an increase of 1.3% compared to the same period last year. The second point is the three categories: earning and capital recycling. First half, all three categories—finance, operation, investment—booked profit growth year on year, and ROE improved.
Even excluding a gain of the sales of Green Corps, first-half ROE was healthy at around 10%, exceeding the previous full fiscal year ending in March 2025 level that was 8.8%. The third point is shareholder returns. In line with the upward revision of the net income forecast, should ORIX achieve a full fiscal year net income target of JPY 440 billion, our DPS forecast will increase from JPY 132.13 to JPY 153.67. The share buyback program also expanded from JPY 100 billion to JPY 150 billion. At the end of October, JPY 78 billion has already been repurchased to represent a 78% progress rate toward a previous JPY 100 billion. Page six. Here, I'll explain the details of the revision of our earnings forecast and expansion of shareholder returns mentioned earlier. Based on the stellar performance in the first half and the current business environment, we have revised our forecast and second-half earnings.
Specifically, we raised the pre-tax profit forecast from JPY 540 billion to JPY 640 billion, net income forecast from JPY 380 billion to JPY 440 billion. This represents an increase of JPY 100 billion and JPY 60 billion respectively on an increase. As a result, we forecast a four-year EPS of JPY 394. ROE will improve to 10.3%. As outlined earlier, we raised our four-year dividend forecast accordingly, expanded the share buyback program. Total shareholder returns should reach JPY 320.7 billion. Total payout ratio is expected to rise from 65% to 73%. While improving ROE and maintaining a healthy debt-equity ratio, ORIX also aims to expand AUM. As our COO, Takahashi, mentioned, total group AUM reached JPY 88 trillion at the end of the first half.
In addition to growth in the traditional asset AUM, such as Robeco, which has performed very well, ORIX aims to expand its AUM in an asset-light fashion and is not overly reliant on our balance sheet. Please go to page seven. We also newly announced a joint PE fund with QIA too. The page shows the first-half results for the three categories and for both previous year and this year, and segment profits, pre-tax profit, net income, and shown at the bottom. Pre-tax profit for the first half was JPY 391.5 billion, an increase of JPY 134.5 billion compared to the same period last year. Like the net income, it reached a record high. We implemented capital recycling not only in the investment category, which achieved a large exit, but also in finance and operation category. All three categories achieved a profit growth year on year.
This page shows the first-half results for previous current year, three categories, investment on top to bottom. The dark blue represents finance. Profit increased 8% on year, JPY 99.6 billion, progress rate 55% versus full-year target. Gross investment income was strong in the insurance segment. Asia, Australia saw steady increase in financial income from leases and loans. In addition, as a part of portfolio optimization, contributions from the sales of ORIX Asset Management and Loan Services Corporation and NISAI lease shares also contributed to the profit gain. Next, the light blue part represents operation. Profit increased by 9% year on year to JPY 114.9 billion, with a progress rate of 48% versus our forecast, which we raised by JPY 10 billion. Business driven by inbound tourism demand, such as Kansai Airports and real estate operation at inns and hotels, continued to perform well.
Strong used car market helped auto business with the rented captures the demand for Windows 11 replacement PCs. Both businesses saw growth, increased profit. Environment, energy segment, the gain on the sales of Zig Light, which operates a waste and finance disposal site, also boosted profit. The pink represents investment. Profit was up sharply at 117% year on year to JPY 194.9 billion. The sales of Hotel Universal, PortaVilla in the first quarter and Green Corps Energy in the second quarter, as well as the gain from the sales of shares of NYSE-listed renewable energy company Ormat Technologies, contributed to this increase. In addition, performance of domestic PE investments such as Toshiba was strong, leading to higher profit contribution. As a result, segment profit, pre-tax profit, and net income all increased by 42%, 52%, and 48% respectively. Next, please look at page eight.
On this page, I explain ROE, shareholders' equity for each of the three categories. As you see on the right, at the end of the previous year, shareholders' equity was JPY 4.1 trillion, while annualized ROE was 8.8%. For the first half of this year, these figures were JPY 4.4 trillion and 12.7% respectively. Please look at the graph on the right. The dark blue ROE of finance improved from 8.3% at the end of the previous period to 8.5%. The allocated capital finance is JPY 1.8 trillion. Now, light blue ROE in the operation category improved from 13.5% to 14% due to the sale of subsidiaries and other factors. Allocated capital here is JPY 1.3 trillion. Then pink ROE in the investment category rose significantly from 7.4% to 16.6% due to the sales of Green Corps Energy and hotels. Allocated capital is JPY 1.6 trillion.
The total allocated capital for three categories is JPY 4.7 trillion, which is slightly different from shareholders' equity amount of JPY 4.4 trillion on the consolidated DS. As explained last time, this is because the allocated capital is a management accounting figure. Next page shows ROE and assets for the three categories. With the startup portfolio optimization, total asset ROE improved by 1.03% from the end of the previous period to 3.15%. The ROE for the investment category improved significantly for the reasons that I just outlined. ROE for both finance and operation categories also improved in the first half. This page shows the progress of capital recycling. In the first half, we recorded a capital gains of JPY 157.1 billion. We had a cash inflows from sales amounting to JPY 500 billion.
Major asset sales included Green Corps Energy, that was a cash in of JPY 178.9 billion, capital gain JPY 95 billion, and Hotel Universal Porto Vita, a cash in about JPY 34 billion, capital gain JPY 21.9 billion. We also sold ORIX Asset Management and Loan Services Corporation and NISAI Lease in the corporate finance business segment too, and Zig Light in the environmental energy segment too. In all three categories of finance, operation, and investment, we flexibly recycled capital to optimize our portfolio while balancing new investment. Cash outflows from new investments amounted to JPY 470 billion. The main new investments made in the first half were Hilco Global JPY 776 million and convertible bonds for the next generation energy company AM Green. Hilco Global is a leading asset appraisal company in the United States and a platform for asset-based lending.
Additionally, we made a PE investment in specialty capsule toy retailer Lulu Arc, as well as new purchases of aircraft where prices are favorable and new investments in logistics. We also made additional investments in Osaka Integrated Resort project as planned. We continue to have a promising investment pipeline for the future and will carefully select projects. For the fiscal year 2026, we forecast the realization and new investments of between JPY 600 billion-JPY 800 billion by flexibly recycling capital in all three categories in a well-balanced manner. We will, as Mr. Takahashi explained, work to optimize our portfolio. Page 11 is about ORIX financial strategy. This shows the important balance sheet items and the breakdown on the left, and the key indicators from the perspective of financial soundness on the right.
In the table on the left, you can see the total assets increased by JPY 738 billion compared to the end of FY2025, with a half of about JPY 600 billion amount excluding the effects due to the U.S.-related factors. The remainder was primarily caused by asset growth in the insurance segment, which saw strong sales of single premium whole life insurance JPY 131.4 billion and at ORIX Bank, which increased the new execution of the real estate investment loans JPY 109 billion. Next, short-term and long-term debt deposit increased by JPY 416.9 billion, mainly due to higher deposit at ORIX Bank and insurance of the corporate bond. We continue to diversify our funding methods and currencies and have realized competitive funding cost levels through this and maintaining a stable ratio of the long-term debt.
Insurance contract liabilities and policyholder reserves decreased by JPY 223.2 billion, mainly due to the lower liabilities from the higher discount rate for insurance contract liabilities. This was offset by the increase in single premium insurance policyholder accounts. Of the JPY 351.9 billion increase in shareholder equity in the row below, JPY 223.2 billion is due to the lower insurance contract liabilities and policyholder accounts explained earlier. Other factors contributed to the increase of the shareholders' equity are mainly net income. Debt-equity ratio was steady at 1.5 times. Looking to the graph at the right, we maintained the capital utilization rate at an appropriate level in the 90% range as a result of the capital recycling in the first half. This has helped us sustain A-level credit ratings at global agencies. While yen funding rates are gradually increasing, including those for the bankrupt deposits, our overseas currency-based funding costs, mostly U.S.
Dollars remain in downtrend. We are working to reduce our cost of capital by keeping competitive A-level credit ratings and by utilizing diversified funding sources. Pages 12 and 13 are segment summaries. Please refer to the slides from page 16 and onwards for details. Links to supplementary financial materials and the integrated report are included in these slides for your reference. First, segment profits for the corporate financial services and maintenance lease segment increased by JPY 13.1 billion, or 29%, to JPY 58.6 billion. Corporate financial services posted significant growth thanks to the sale of ORIX Asset Management and Loan Services Corporation and NISAI Lease in Q2. Growth in various fee revenues was also positive. The auto business continued to enjoy robust used car sales, achieving a record high profit for the first half.
Rent tech profit grew on higher rentals from ICT equipment inventories fueled by demand for Windows 11 PC replacement. Auto asset for auto and rent tech increased due to new executions in car leasing and PC rentals. The sale of ORIX Asset Management and Loan Services Corporation reduced the total segment assets by JPY 29.2 billion versus the previous year, totaling JPY 1,855.3 billion. Second, the real estate segment's profit decreased by JPY 1.3 billion, 3% year on year, to JPY 49.1 billion. The RE investment and facilities operation units saw a significant increase in profits from hotel and in operations, in addition to the sale of the Anniversary Port Vita. However, profits were down slightly year on year due to the previous year's gain from the sale of 100 Circus. Meanwhile, the profits at Daikyo units increased on the sale of rental apartments, properties, and other factors.
Real estate segment assets remained flat compared to the end of the previous fiscal year. In addition, in response to the expanding investor demand, we increased the asset size of our first equipment equity commitment type real estate value add fund established in January this year from JPY 100 billion to JPY 120 billion. Please refer to page 18 of the real estate. The third is PE investment and concession. Segment profit increased by JPY 9.7 billion, or 21% year on year, to JPY 56.7 billion. PE investment unit enjoys steady performance at the investees such as Toshiba and DHC, resulting in higher profits even after considering the previous year's gain. Regarding the domestic PE fund information with the Qatar Investment Authority mentioned by Takahashi, you'll find the details on page 20. The concession unit saw a significant increase in profits as Kansai Airports continued to perform well.
Please refer to page 45 for related data such as passenger numbers. The segment assets for PE investment and concession increased by JPY 31.9 billion versus the end of fiscal year 2025, totaling JPY 1.548 trillion. The main reason was the new investment in Lulu Arc and increased profit contribution from the investees, leading to an increase in equity method. Both environment and energy segment profit increased by JPY 117.3 billion year on year to JPY 119.7 billion. Profit was bolstered by the sale of Green Corps Energy, which resulted in gains on sale and valuation gains, as well as gains from the sale of shares of Zig Light and Nomad. Additionally, the domestic electricity retail business enjoyed both higher sales volume and unit price. Segment asset decreased by JPY 38.8 billion from the previous year end to JPY 977.4 billion because of the progress in capital recycling.
The fifth is insurance segment profit increased by JPY 10 billion, or 24%, to JPY 50.9 billion. Continuing the recent trend, asset income rose sharply on growth in investment assets and effort to diversify portfolio management. In terms of business, both the single premium whole life insurance move shot and re-bumped the income protection insurance key pump launched this June are selling well. Insurance segment assets increased by JPY 131.4 billion versus the end of FY2025 to JPY 3.1406 trillion. Sixth, the banking and credit segment profit decreased by JPY 600 million, or 5% year on year, to JPY 12.5 billion. Amid rising interest rates, while deposit procurement costs are increasing, the asset management yield is also improving. The main reason for the decrease versus the first half of FY2025 is the recording of the losses from the sale of public and corporate bonds in Q2 to improve bond portfolio quality.
Banking and credit segment assets increased by JPY 109 billion versus the end of FY2025 to JPY 3.2536 trillion. Both investment real estate loans and the merchant banking business saw increase in new executions. As explained in Q1, ORIX Bank paid the parent group a dividend of JPY 30 billion in July to optimize in capital size. The seventh, the aircraft and ship segment profit decreased by JPY 10.1 billion, or 31% year on year, to JPY 22 billion. Aircraft leasing profit for the first half was roughly in line with the previous year, but with lease rates remaining high, the number of owned aircraft increased, and the business climate as a whole is positive. Our loan profit rose year on year, partly due to the contributions from Castle Lake, which was acquired in January this year.
Profits in ships unit was lower year on year on the absence of higher charter fees from certain contracts last year, reflecting the impact of marine shipping prices. Segment assets increased by JPY 24.1 billion versus the end of FY2025 to JPY 1,256.1 billion owing to aircraft purchases. Segment number eight is ORIX USA. ORIX USA segment profit decreased by JPY 18.1 billion year on year, resulting in a loss of JPY 1.8 billion. Compared to the same period last year, the main reasons for the substantial profit decline were absence of reversals of the provisions recorded in last year, a decrease in capital gains, and the booking of credit costs and impairment in the first half this year. The credit losses and impairments stem from the real estate financing originated during the period of monetary easing during the pandemic and legacy assets from before that.
The extended period of the elevated interest rate inflation and uncertain economic conditions in the U.S. negatively impacted these assets. More recently, based on our disciplined investment policy, we have conservatively chosen deals and thus have no exposure to the First Brands Group or Tricolor Holdings. Please see pages 30, 31, and 32 in this presentation for more details. Excluding the Hilco Global segment, assets in U.S. dollars shrunk from JPY 12.2 billion at the end of March 2023 to JPY 11.3 billion at the end of September 2025, with the addition of. This is a decline of 7.4% in the past two and a half years. With the addition of Hilco as a subsidiary, we will review the ORIX USA business portfolio and continue to responsibly manage the portfolio while controlling asset risks. Asset size.
Uncertainty persists in the operating environment for ORIX USA, and we are conservatively reviewing four fiscal year forecasts for ORIX USA compared to the initial plan. Next is ORIX Europe. The segment profit increased by JPY 1.3 billion, or 6% year on year, to JPY 22.1 billion. Net fund inflows grew thanks to the favorable global capital markets, and AUM rose to a record high of EUR 425 billion. This resulted in higher profits even after adjusting for performance fees booked in the same period last year. ORIX Europe assets were flat year on year, excluding the currency impacts. Finally, Asia and Australia segment profit increased by JPY 600 million, or 3% year on year, to JPY 19.7 billion. In Greater China, profit contributions from investees decreased versus the same period last year. We maintained a constrained investment stance and reduced our exposure to in both leases and investments.
Meanwhile, the financial income increased in countries such as Singapore, India, and Australia, resulting in higher profits. Segment assets increased by JPY 15.5 billion versus the end of fiscal year 2025 to JPY 1,741.1 billion. The main reason was the effects impact, but the breakdown shows a decrease in assets in Greater China region, while there was an increase in Australia and India. That concludes each segment explanation. Next is page 14. Finally, regarding the shareholder returns and enhancing corporate value, we added JPY 50 billion to JPY 100 billion share buyback program announced in May for the new total of JPY 150 billion. Regarding the dividends, the four-year DPS forecast was raised from the previous JPY 132.13 to JPY 153.67, 39% increase over a four-year net income target. Compared to FY2025 DPS, we expect an increase of JPY 33.66 per share, or 28%.
Since announcing the three-year plan and long-term vision in May, CEO Inoue and COO Takahashi have been engaged in a direct dialogue with institutional investors both in Japan and overseas. We also plan to provide access to outside directors, and we are providing opportunities to have a direct dialogue from the outside director and the investors. We continue to enhance the corporate value by increasing opportunities for direct dialogue with the market regarding our most important management KPI, ROE improvement. EPS growth, which is also important, and capital costs are also key areas of discussion. This concludes my remarks. Thank you for your attention. Now, we'd like to move on to the Q&A session. For those of you who have questions, please use the raise a hand button at the bottom of your Zoom. Once your name is called, please assign yourself and ask us questions.
Please keep your question to one per person. First, from SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki Sama. Hello, I'm Muraki from SMBC Nikko. This is a bit off from the results content briefing material, but I would like to hear more about joint investment with QIA. What led you to this joint PE establishment? Because in the past, you've been covering everything on your own 100%, and the asset was JPY 1 trillion. Do you think for the future domestic PE, you're going to run off the existing one and balance sheet will reduce? The 60% holding of this new PE that you're establishing with QIA, it will be on the addition, net additions on the BS, right? Do you think this will allow you to invest more in a large project, but what kind of impact would this have to the total balance? Hello, this is Takahashi speaking. Hello, Muraki-san.
Let me answer. Take this one. How we came about to establish a joint PE, as I explained in yesterday's announcement, almost about two years we've been negotiating with QIA. We've always been in contact, having a dialogue with the various sovereign fund, and QIA was especially interested in investing in Japan. In which field we can collaborate? We've been discussing that way, and we thought that the domestic PE investments is probably where we can jointly approach. Investment criteria, policies, we've discussed quite a bit, and this includes a right fit too. We have the right chemistry. That is how we came about this agreement to establish the PE. Regarding the running off of existing portfolio and to focus on the fund with the QIA, that is not the case.
As we mentioned in the press release, our fundamental approach is enterprise value in the market cap of JPY 30 billion or mid-cap larger items. We would leverage this joint fund with QIA, and this $2.5 billion, JPY 370 billion, that's unlevered base. One time or two times we will be financing. In the newspaper, I know it says that with borrowing, we will be able to have this JPY 1 trillion investment capacity, but we do not know whether we will get there. Anything that is below JPY 30 billion for a market cap investment, that is something that we will continue to handle within the balance sheet. The balance on the balance sheet is we do have $2.5 billion. 60% is what we are committing. I do not think we will see a significant bloating of the asset balance, but we aim to maintain the balance of the current JPY 1 trillion going forward.
So far, we had a majority share, so we had a controlling share so that our target companies, we would try to keep it in consolidated accounting so that we can get benefit from profit. For this fund, we would apply the fund accounting so they do not incorporate the fair market value. That way we would incorporate the profit into our business would be different from the one that we are financing fully on our own. I understand. Is this part of your ROE enhancement effort? Yes, that too, plus goodwill and also recognition of intangible asset would be different too. Also there would be an impact on the credit rating too. That would be eased too, I think. In the last 10 years, we have been building up a track record in the private equity area. That is one thing.
Reflecting the market trend and movement, we are seeing more and more good quality pipeline in front of us that is building up. Incorporating that all into our balance sheet, adding them up would impact us in various different areas. At this timing, we wanted to leverage our third-party funds to shift to leverage the third-party funds to try to capture larger, better quality deals. It would be a benefit in our long-term growth. That is our strategy. Thank you very much. Thank you. Next from JP Morgan Securities, Sato-san. Thank you. This is Sato speaking from JP Morgan about ROE target and your commitment to that and also net assets, the balance between the two. I would like to confirm one thing.
Now, the JPY 50 billion increase in buyback, I think there are different reasons, but the net profit increase, most of it will be used for the shareholder return, I understand. At the same time, there is a big impact of the interest rate. About this insurance with the change of the discount rate, about JPY 200 billion in the six months, I think that the profit has expanded. In comparison to the medium-term business plan, the JPY 20 billion or higher needs to be enhanced so that you can achieve the ROE target. Depending on the macro environment, non-cash or cash in without that, there could be some higher risks. In that sense, in achieving the ROE, in order to maintain the probability of achieving that, what kind of initiatives are you thinking of taking? Thank you for your questions. Yamamoto will respond to your question.
As you pointed out correctly, for this fiscal year, the interest rate higher and the discount rate, discount and also the insurance account, the net asset increase was a little more than JPY 200 billion. Achieving the 11% ROE, of course, that the numerator will not naturally increase. We have to take some measures or initiatives that would be necessary. US accounting and Japanese accounting, there is some gap. With the shareholders and ORIX, we are trying to consider the various initiatives to be taken. In achieving the targets of the medium term in the final year, we will be taking initiatives. As for the interest rate, I think we have come to an end of the cycle and this would stabilize. This increase is not going to continue from now on.
In other words, if the interest rate comes down, the denominator would be less. That is something that will be possible to make it possible to reach the ROE that we want to achieve. We would like to monitor that closely and communicate to you. That is something that we will be doing in the future. The impact of this in achieving the ROE, yes, we do understand that possibilities. I see. Thank you. Thank you for the question. Next from Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san, please. Hello. This is Watanabe from Daiwa. This year's landing forecast and next year's profit forecast. You said that there will be a reduction, reduced provision for the bank and the U.S. business. If you have any trend outlook for the second half for this fiscal year, you will be generating quite a significant profit. What's your outlook for the next year?
Is it going to be challenging? Are you going to go with your current cruising speed? What's your thought on the next year? Thank you very much. Regarding ORIX Bank and regarding our debt portfolio, liability portfolio. This is a reversal of what I mentioned about liability insurance and various portfolio that we are maintaining for the better liquidity. Together with the interest rate hike, there will be more and more incurred losses. As much as we can within the profit, because we have a profit momentum, we will actively reshuffle the portfolio and recorded some losses from the sale. This year's credit loss burden in ORIX USA, as I before mentioned, so far in the fourth quarter, we usually do the check-up of all of our assets. We are doing more flexible risk management.
We have decided to book the loss to some extent in the second quarter too. If you could go to page 32, ORIX USA pre-tax profit, additional information is there as well for portfolio. As I mentioned, because of the interest rate in the dollar, it would be plateaued and inflation and equity, real estate, business-related impact, and we are recording capital gain. We are losing opportunity to record capital gain, sorry. Before COVID, we had a real estate legacy asset of the credit loss that is now materialized. Going forward, what would happen is real estate for multifamily condominium performance, interest rate hike, and insurance premium increase will impact the rent. I believe that we will need to closely monitor property management and appropriate asset monitoring too. Those potential risks, we are quite clear at the ORIX USA side.
We do not foresee this kind of situation will continue. At least by the end of this second half or at the latest at the beginning, within the first half of next year, we will resolve. We will conclude our countermeasures. Going forward, I'd like to have Takahashi explain. The second question about next year's forecast, let me give some brief thinking about next year. Usually, the income gains, for example, on the real estate or private equities exit, those gains from sales, we have been recording pretty much on every fiscal year. It is a recurring gain from sales. The kind of gains from sales, like divestment of Greenko, that is almost like a one-off profit. This proceeds that we received is a reason that we were able to do a share buyback, in addition, additional share buyback.
Another reason is we averaged out the EPS, and we are intending to continue to increase EPS in a linear fashion. If there is some surplus in capital, we would use it for that going forward in the next year. We will continue to aim to realize sustainable profit growth. The sales from a gain, especially something this scale of almost like a one-off, would be volatile. Sometimes we do, sometimes we do not. When we have surplus, we will leverage a buyback to continue to increase our EPS linearly. I am not sure I am answering your questions, but it is not that we are aiming to generate a certain amount of profit every single year. That is a bit different, far from our actual business practices in reality. Thank you very much. Thank you. Next is Mizuho Securities, Sakamaki-san. Thank you. Sakamaki speaking from Mizuho.
I'd like to ask some questions on the forecast for the second half. On page 10, capital recycling forecast. For this fiscal year, JPY 200 billion or higher for capital gain. Compared with the past range, there could be some upside. In the second half, the segment profit is only JPY 200 billion. How should we understand this balance between the two? If you can explain it, thank you. Yes, thank you. On page 10, this is JPY 200 billion. If I may talk about this further, as you know, usually our capital gain is about JPY 100 billion. That's the normalized level. Greenko, JPY 99.5 billion is added. It is JPY 200 billion. That is on track. The real estate market is very solid and private equity portfolio, the performance, as we mentioned, is good.
If there is a good opportunity, we will invest and also realize in a very flexible manner. In the second half, if you deduct that, the pre-tax income or revenue level, I think that's what you are referring to. We did not specify the first half and second half, but some of them were already realized in the first half. There could be some differences. About the capital gain, this can be considered as the income or the profit in other areas. I hope that answers your question. Thank you very much. Thank you for the question from Nomura Securities. Sasaki-sama, please. Hello. This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. I have a question about your performance. This year's second half pre-tax profit forecast, the level is quite a bit declining versus the first half. It looks like a JPY 250 billion pre-tax profit.
This is along the line of your base profit, but you also are going to record some capital gain as well, right? I was wondering, perhaps you have some significant impairment loss or some kind of a negative factor that you're focusing for the first half. Is my understanding correct? Regarding next year's business plan, I'm sure you're in the midst of discussion right now. If you can share as much as you can about the next year's plan, please. The first questions will be answered by Yamamoto. Regarding the first point, you're right. The base profit first half I mentioned was quite brisk. Within our base profit, we have the profit from the company that we have invested. That is contributing. Like Toshiba is performing quite well that we have invested.
For the second half, we have set that to the regular cruising speed, not the buoyant. For the second half, we are expecting a certain base profit plus some capital gain. It is not that we are expecting some one-off significant loss. Let me add to that. This is a bit of a detail, but as Yamamoto mentioned, Toshiba's performance is quite good now. Divestment of Toshiba material is recording in Toshiba's performance. Kyokushia's share prices are quite well. They showed a part of Kyokushia shares. Base profit, our size base profit and our gain from our sales, and also the income from our equity affiliate are all recorded under base profit. What I mentioned is there are various one-time gains that we experience from our equity affiliate. Those happen in the first half.
That is not necessarily recurring income that we can continue to expect in the second half. That is a reason. You asked me about the second next year plans. Actually, we will start this discussion from the beginning of next year. What we are sharing right now to the market is ROE of 11% by FY2028 ending in March. Of course, we are creating bottom-up plans up to three years into the future. What we will be discussing going forward is what went well, what did not go well for the past year, and making a rolling update to what we have established in last March. This is March to our MTP. We are not expecting any downward change to our initial plan. I am sure next year will be quite positive. The detail will be discussed from the segment leaders of each division. That is all.
May I add one more thing, please? Yes. You mentioned that next year's profit can be volatile. I got the nuance in your wording. This year, 10% RE, you need to grow the profit at a certain level. Otherwise, I do not think RE can go up to the 10% levels. Is that okay to say that it can be volatile? You have a point. Let's just say we need to continuously grow. Otherwise, we will never get to 11% RE. We are not there yet. Of course, we need a profit growth to get there. With a current portfolio, what can be sold at what price is something that some of it where we have a higher probability, where we are already in the negotiation process, then we can factor in. Others are just pie in the sky.
Of course, we need to make a right decision at the right timing, being considerate of appropriate capital recycling to maximize our gains from our sales. As I mentioned, this fiscal year, this proceeds from Greenko is, I'll say, a bit extraordinary. What we've been discussing going forward internally is compared to this year, how much base profit that we can increase. And on top, how much gains from our sales asset we can expect. Ultimately, we would like to achieve the ROE target by 2025 that we have. That's our grand plan. Thank you very much. Thank you. Next from BofA Securities, Tsujino-san. Thank you. Some detailed question about the environment and energy. If you look at the quarterly number, JPY 117 billion segment profit. The Greenko sales gain on sales is JPY 95 billion.
The gain on securities, OMAT sales gain on sales is included, I think. We do not know how much that is. That means it is set at JPY 15 billion, but the equity method, this is JPY 83 billion. OMAT gains on sales. Also, if you deduct JPY 95 billion, you are in red in terms of segment profit. In environment and energy segment, though excluding the gains of sales of those two, what is happening? Was there any kind of impairment? If so, what was it? What about the impairment risk of others in coming months and years? Takahashi-san will respond. Sorry, this is Takahashi responding. If I may talk about the details, the renewable energy in Japan, especially the mega solar that is already operating. We operate that. We are getting the stable profit. Also, we are in the energy business.
In the previous year, Hibikina and Soma, there was our impairment loss. That led to the lower depreciation and amortization. Maintaining the sales volume included. This part was profitable. In environment and energy, the major one is Erawan. Erawan, concerning that, it is break-even or just slightly in red. A lower interest rate and also the ones that we are developing projects and also the program has started. In terms of business, we are in the recovery phase. Also, on the environment side, the ORIX environment is a circular economy company. They are generating stable profit. ORIX Shigen Junkan or resource recycling, which is engaged in the interim processing. They are going through the rebuilding or replacement phase. We expect some red deficit. In actual performance, they are in red. It is a mixed performance.
We are not seeing the signs of the major impairment loss. I do not recognize that. Okay. Way of thinking, if you calculate this, you are in red, as I said. Is that correct understanding? Yes. We do not recognize this as a major deficit. It is really close to the break-even level. It is a very small deficit, I see. If you calculate the JPY 117 billion minus JPY 98 billion, sorry, the loss of JPY 8.2 billion or so, you are talking about Q2. Okay. Q2, as you said, yes, that is the correct calculation. The OMAT, it depends on what kind of number that you would include in OMAT. We did not recognize that in Q2 only. I think if you look at the bigger picture, it would be almost a break-even. Okay. Thank you. Now, we are reaching the closing time.
We would like to take one last question from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Takemura-sama. Thank you for taking my question. I am Takemura from Morgan Stanley MUFG. I have a question about some numbers. You have made a revision to the landing forecast. Page seven, bottom right. In financial, it is remaining JPY 1,800. No change. Were there any changes regarding the business profit increase of JPY 10 billion? What is the reason for investment? Greenko JPY 95 billion addition plus JPY 80 billion. I would like to know why you are postponing some of it. The reason for that, to the best way you can, please share. Regarding ORIX USA, I understand that you have revised the performance forecast. How does that impact this overall segment, please? What you explained toward the end is very much a reason for that for finance and life insurance included.
We did quite well as a management. We have a management income in a bank. We also recorded the loss of our debt liabilities. In order to improve the portfolio quality and the credit-related business, we have conservatively recorded some new losses too. Those are what's impacting this finance business. For business, many of the operating units are quite brisk. In ORIX USA, real estate origination, the fee environment, competitive landscape, we are having quite a difficult situation. That is impacting our profit. Regarding investment, the third point, you are right regarding JPY 95 billion addition from Greenko's divestment. It does not mean that we put some of the sales plan for the sales to the later date at all. We did have a certain uncertainty in the fair value part about the future gain from the sales that ORIX USA is doing in the PE business.
As Takemura-san pointed out, regarding ORIX USA, we have more conservative outlook because of our transparency. Thank you very much. We would like to conclude the Q&A sessions. Now, we'd like to have a last remark from Takahashi. As I said at the outset, there are mixtures in terms of the business performance between the segment. The businesses are diversified. Also in May, we announced the strategy. We are executing that steadily in the first half. Relatively speaking, I think we kept good results. We would like to stay focused. We took notes of what you pointed out. We will continue to take initiatives. We consider those target numbers are not easy numbers. Also in the medium-term plan and the long-term vision, the numbers that we are committed to, we'd like to make sure to try to achieve those targets.
I hope you would continue to support us. Thank you very much. With that, we would like to conclude today's conference, the briefing on the second quarter results. Thank you very much for your participation.
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