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Petron Corp’s Q3 2025 earnings call revealed mixed financial results, with a modest stock price increase of 0.44% following the announcement. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.3 USD, while revenue reached 208.51 billion USD. Despite a decline in consolidated revenues by 7%, Petron saw an increase in operating income and net income, contributing to a slight positive market reaction.
Key Takeaways
- Petron’s stock price rose by 0.44%, closing at 2.30 USD.
- Consolidated operating income increased by 13%.
- Net income improved significantly, reaching PHP 78.6 billion.
- The food and spirits segments showed strong revenue growth.
- Philippine GDP growth slowed to 4% in Q3 2025.
Company Performance
Petron Corp demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, with a notable rise in net income and operating income despite a decline in consolidated revenues. The company’s performance in the food and spirits segments was particularly strong, offsetting challenges in other areas. This performance aligns with broader industry trends, where companies face global economic challenges and reduced domestic demand.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: 208.51 billion USD
- Earnings per share: 0.3 USD
- Consolidated operating income: PHP 137.4 billion, up 13%
- Net income: PHP 78.6 billion
- Core net income: PHP 60.3 billion, up 54%
Market Reaction
Petron’s stock saw a modest increase of 0.44%, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment. The stock is trading near its 52-week low, indicating potential investor concerns over broader economic conditions despite the positive earnings report.
Outlook & Guidance
Petron is expanding its renewable energy portfolio, securing significant hydropower and solar projects. The company expects its power segment’s EBITDA to reach around PHP 70 billion in 2026, highlighting a strong focus on sustainable growth and infrastructure improvements.
Executive Commentary
Jessica Tenorio, VP of Corporate Financial Planning, emphasized the integration of ESG impact assessments into capital expenditure reviews, underscoring Petron’s commitment to sustainability. Executives reiterated their dedication to supporting long-term growth and expansion strategies.
Risks and Challenges
- Declining consolidated revenue amidst global economic challenges.
- Slowed GDP growth in the Philippines affecting domestic demand.
- Competitive pressures in the spirits and beer markets.
- Potential legal claims, such as those involving Meralco.
- Fluctuations in the crude oil market impacting costs and margins.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts focused on Petron’s modest volume growth in the spirits and beer segments, inventory management, and renewable energy project timelines. Executives provided clarity on these issues, reaffirming their strategic direction and addressing concerns about market conditions.
Full transcript - Petron Corp (PCOR) Q3 2025:
Ian, Moderator, San Miguel Corporation: Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the combined 9-month YTD 2025 results analyst briefing. I am Ian, and I will be your moderator for today. A few reminders before we begin. Number one, questions will be entertained only at the end of the presentation and only via the Q&A and raise hand features. Number two, if you opt to use the raise hand feature at the end of the presentation, we will unmute your microphone, and you may ask questions to the panel directly. Number three, questions sent through the chat box will not be entertained. Number four, please be reminded that this webinar is recorded. Allow me now to introduce our panelists for this afternoon. We are joined here today by Ms. Monica Ang Mercado, San Miguel Food and Beverage CFO; Ms. Jessica Tenorio, VP and Head of Corporate Financial Planning and Investor Relations; Mr.
Eric Bell Lim, Petron Corporation Investor Relations Head, Ms. Dina Garcia, SMFB Investor Relations Head. Also joining us on Zoom, we have Mr. Brian U. Villanueva, SMC’s Chief Finance Officer, Mr. Joseph Ann Pineda, SMC’s Treasurer, Mr. Paul Causon, San Miguel Global Power Holdings Corp. CFO, Mr. Ferdinand Constantino, Advisor to SMC, Ms. Tatish Calabyab, SMC Chief Sustainability Advisor, Mr. Erwin Hernandez, AVP and Head of Business Development, Project and Financial Planning of SMC Infrastructure. We would also like to acknowledge the presence of other key executives of the group who will be joining us in this call. I now turn you over to Ms. Jessica Tenorio to discuss the SMC Group’s financials and operational results.
Jessica Tenorio, VP and Head of Corporate Financial Planning and Investor Relations, San Miguel Corporation: Good afternoon and welcome to Petron Corporation’s combined 9-month Q2 2025 results analyst briefing. We’re pleased to announce with pride that the Petron Corporation Group has demonstrated strong profitability and a resilient performance during the period. Before we begin further with the financial results of the company, we would like to first highlight a few key developments which we will be discussing in detail throughout this presentation. As a macro backdrop, the Philippine economy in the third quarter of the year recorded a 4% GDP growth, slower than previous quarters. GDP decelerated amid governance concerns over infrastructure spending and slower domestic demand despite the cumulative 75 basis points rate cuts by the BSP so far this year. While GDP growth slowed down, Petron exhibited resilience, recording strong year-on-year performance for the third quarter of the year compared even to the first two quarters of the year.
The SMC Group maintained strong profitability despite recording lower revenues as the group worked towards margin expansion through cost disciplines, reduced material costs, and operational efficiencies. These results underscore the group’s ability to navigate market headwinds and other external pressures to deliver resilient performance. The food, hard liquor, power, and infrastructure businesses delivered the biggest improvements. During the period as well, SMC has earned recognition for its sustainability efforts. This is for both environmental stewardship and social impact. SMC has integrated ESG impact assessments into its capital expenditure review process and conducted physical climate risk evaluations of key facilities to ensure long-term business resilience. Alongside our sustainability initiatives, we continue to prioritize efficiency, financial discipline, and key strategic actions, allowing us to maintain growth momentum amid external challenges.
Equally important, beyond business performance and value creation, the group’s long-term focus continues to center on nation-building, food and energy security, and driving sustainable development. We remain committed to supporting the country’s long-term growth by advancing critical infrastructure projects and expanding our energy portfolio to meet the increasing needs of our communities and industries. That is basically our executive summary. Let us now turn to the group’s respective earnings performance. On the slide, you will see Petron Corporation’s results. Petron Corporation delivered solid results for the nine months ending September 2025. This reflects strong profitability and operational resilience amid persistent global headwinds and a looming local political concern. The company’s strategic focus, cost discipline, and efficiency initiatives supported earnings stability despite softer revenues and continued pressures in the global commodities market.
Consolidated revenues declined 7% to PHP 1.1 trillion, mainly due to: one, lower crude and commodity prices that have impacted the fuel and oil and power segments; two, reduced revenue contribution from the power business due to the deconsolidation of SPPC and ERI; and lower average realization prices on lower coal and western prices. However, this was partially offset by solid contributions from the food, hard liquor, and infrastructure businesses. Consolidated operating income increased 13% to PHP 137.4 billion, driven by lower raw material costs, pricing actions, and improved operational efficiency, resulting in margin expansion from 10.3% to 12.6%. Profitability improvements were led by food group, hard liquor, and infrastructure, along with power, posting the largest improvement in margins. Net income rose significantly to PHP 78.6 billion during the period, supported by a gain from the fair valuation of investments and foreign exchange gains.
Even excluding one-off and forex impacts, core net income improved by 54% to PHP 60.3 billion. Consolidated EBITDA finished at PHP 194.3 billion, and this is 16% higher than prior year. Now, to walk us through the performance of San Miguel Food and Beverage, I’ll turn the floor over to Tina.
Tina/Monica Ang Mercado, CFO, San Miguel Food and Beverage, San Miguel Corporation: Thank you, Jessica. For the nine months ended September 2025, San Miguel Food and Beverage continued to deliver strong results, with consolidated net sales reaching PHP 302.9 billion, up 4% from last year, supported by firm demand, efficient pricing, and sustained brand initiatives across its food, beer, and spirits divisions. Operating income rose 12% to PHP 44.7 billion, while net income grew 11% from last year to PHP 33.7 billion, reflecting solid performance across all segments. EBITDA increased 13% to PHP 58.4 billion, driven by broad-based gains and improved margins across the businesses. Let me walk you through the food business’s performance for the nine-month period ended September 2025. San Miguel Foods maintained its solid performance, with all key metrics exceeding last year’s levels. Revenues grew 7% to PHP 143.5 billion, supported by strong volume growth across key segments.
The protein segment posted 11% revenue growth on higher volumes, backed by stable internal supply and continued favorable chicken prices. Animal Nutrition and Health’s revenue declined 1% year-to-date, a marked improvement from the first-half shortfall of 5%, as feeds volume steadily recovered. Prepared and packaged food consisting of cured foods, Magnolia Dairy, and coffee sustained strong momentum, delivering 9% revenue growth, driven by higher sales volumes, favorable selling prices, and an improved sales mix. Operating income increased 32% to PHP 13 billion, largely driven by protein’s sustained strong performance and continued favorable raw material prices. Net income rose 33% to PHP 8.9 billion, while EBITDA grew 27% to PHP 19.6 billion, reflecting broad-based margin improvements across businesses. Moving on to the beer business, San Miguel Brewery reported revenues of PHP 110.7 billion, almost matching last year’s level.
Operating income rose 2% to PHP 23.9 billion, reflecting effective cost management, supported by the September 2024 price increase, resulting in improved margins. EBITDA increased by 4% to PHP 30 billion, with margins improving to 27%. Net income reached PHP 18.8 billion, up 1% from last year. Domestic revenues totaled PHP 98.3 billion, a slight 1% decline year-on-year. The performance reflected subdued discretionary spending, the impact from last year’s pre-September price increase trade loading, and the onslaught of successive typhoons affecting most regions. Operating income for the domestic business was flat at PHP 20.7 billion, while net income finished at PHP 18.5 billion. International operations registered modest growth, with all key metrics showing improvement. Revenues reached $218 million, up 3% versus last year, driven by strong volume growth in exports, Thailand, and South China, as well as higher San Miguel brand sales in Vietnam.
Operating income rose 15% to $56 million, supported by higher volumes, lower production costs, and managed expenses. SMB continues to implement key initiatives to strengthen its brand presence. In the domestic operations, SMB reinforced equity building through the October Fest kickoff event and the release of the new SMB Christmas campaign. Off-site boosting initiatives were also implemented, such as thematic and digital campaigns, consumer and tactical promotions, and product innovations, reinforcing flagship and premium brands. In the international operations, SMB boosted consumer engagement through channel-specific programs, modern trade expansion, and sustained brand building through seasonal campaigns, merchandising drives, digital initiatives, and product innovations. Amid a challenging market, SMB will continue implementing volume-boosting initiatives alongside prudent cost control, supply chain improvements, and organizational capacity build.
Turning now to our spirits business, in the first nine months of 2025, Ginebra San Miguel sustained its strong performance despite a challenging market, with revenues reaching PHP 48.7 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase. Operating income rose 19% to PHP 7.5 billion, supported by higher selling prices, favorable molasses costs, improved distillery efficiencies, and continued second-hand bottle usage. Notable volume growth was observed from the Vinopulafu and Primera brands. Net income and EBITDA grew 17% and 19% respectively, reaching PHP 6.3 billion and PHP 8.4 billion. That concludes the update for San Miguel Food and Beverage. I’d now like to invite Eric to present updates on Petron.
Eric Bell Lim, Petron Corporation Investor Relations Head, Petron Corporation: Petron Corporation in the first nine months of 2025 reported revenues of PHP 594.9 billion, a 10% softening versus the same period last year. Revenues dropped mainly due to lower Dubai crude prices from an average of $81 per barrel in 2024 to $71 per barrel in 2025, a 13% drop. The decline in crude oil price was attributable to a significant buildup of crude supply by key producers, compounded by geopolitical tensions and shifting policies. Despite the aforementioned external challenges, Petron was able to notably register double-digit growth in other key metrics, with operating income finishing 20% higher at PHP 26.6 billion. This was driven by higher domestic sales, lower costs, and improved plant efficiencies. Combined sales volumes from the Philippines and Malaysia reached 84.7 million barrels, up 3% versus the comparable period last year.
Growth was fueled by strong domestic performance, particularly in the Philippines, where volumes in the highly profitable retail segment continued to grow, registering a double-digit increase of 11%, allowing Petron to unceasingly corner the bigger share of the market. Finally, this led to a net income which registered even higher gains, increasing 37% year-on-year to PHP 9.7 billion, underscoring the company’s resilience in navigating persistent industry headwinds. Over to you, Jessica.
Tina/Monica Ang Mercado, CFO, San Miguel Food and Beverage, San Miguel Corporation: Thank you, Eric. Let me now continue with the performance of the remaining businesses in the group, along with updates on our sustainability initiatives, overall business developments, and outlook. San Miguel Yamamura Packaging Group maintained stable performance, posting September year-to-date revenues of PHP 28.4 billion. This is nearly unchanged from last year. Revenue was generated by serving key food and beverage customers of their plastics, beverage filling, flexibles, paper, and glass packaging requirements. Operating income, though, improved by 4% to PHP 2.2 billion, driven by the successful implementation of cost-saving programs and initiatives to improve productivity across all its operations. Meanwhile, EBITDA declined slightly to PHP 4.0 billion. Moving to the power segment, San Miguel Global Power’s revenues amounted to PHP 118.8 billion. That’s 23% lower compared to previous years, with offtake volumes dropping by 18% to 22,090 gigawatt-hours.
The decline, though, was primarily due to the divestment and resulting deconsolidation of the South Premier Power Corporation, SPPC, owner of the 1,278 megawatts in Lihan Power Plant. This was made with the completion of the group’s divestment of 67% interest in the underlying gas power generation assets last January 27, 2025. Moreover, the decline in the revenues reflected a downward adjustment in fuel tariffs to bilateral customers due to the continued softening of global coal prices. Excluding the impact of the SPPC deconsolidation, volumes were relatively stable, supported by the following. First, there’s a full nine-month operation of four generation units of the 600-megawatt Mariveles Greenfield Power Plant and three BESS, or Battery Energy Storage Systems, facilities with a combined capacity of 110 megawatt-hours, plus five additional BESS facilities with a total capacity of 140 megawatt-hours, which began commercial operations in 2025.
Second, strong offtake volumes from the Masinloc plant, contributing 6,571 gigawatt-hours, or 30% of the total volume. Third, there was higher generation volume from the San Roque Hydroelectric Power Plant, amounting to 929 gigawatt-hours. That’s up 125%. Overall, operating income for the power group rose to PHP 34.8 billion, with operating margins expanding to 29% from only 22% last year. This improvement is a result of better margins from contracted capacities and significant contributions from BESS facilities. Such operating income does not include the share in the net earnings of SPPC and ERI, which owns the new Batangas Combined Cycle Power Plant units one and two, with a net capacity of 425 megawatt each.
This amounts to about PHP 5.9 billion to date, which the energy business continues to recognize from its remaining 33% interest in these gas power generation assets as part of its portfolio, even with the aforesaid deconsolidation. Meanwhile, EBITDA grew 22% to PHP 54.1 billion. Net income for the power group surged to PHP 42.4 billion, bolstered by the PHP 21.9 billion gain from the promite transaction and higher earnings from key operating power generation asset portfolio. Excluding the aforesaid gain from the promite transaction, core net income still improved significantly by 52%. Moving now to the infrastructure segment, SMC Infrastructure sustained its growth trajectory, with revenues rising by 7%, buoyed by the improved traffic volumes across all toll roads. Combined average daily traffic reached 1.07 million, marking a 4% increase from the corresponding period last year. EBITDA grew by 8%, reaching PHP 23.8 billion, with a sustained margin of 80%.
Operating income rose by 12% to PHP 16.7 billion, supported by effective operational and management cost control. Moving to the cement business, the cement group generated consolidated net sales of PHP 25.5 billion for the nine months 2025. That’s a 6% decrease from the comparable period last year. This is primarily due to the lower sales volume and weaker average selling price as a result of the continued influx of imported traded cement. Imports were estimated to account for 21% of industry volume as of the period. Despite the 3% decline in EBITDA to PHP 7.3 billion, margin, though, improved to 29% due to ongoing cost efficiency measures. Meanwhile, operating income fell by 4% to PHP 5.1 billion. A snapshot of our balance sheet, Petron Corporation’s consolidated total assets as of September 30, 2025, stood at PHP 2.7 trillion, while total liabilities amounted to PHP 1.9 trillion.
Stockholders’ equity ended at PHP 733 billion. Consolidated cash balance stood at PHP 344 billion, while interest-bearing debt totaled to PHP 1.6 trillion. Next, we just want to highlight some nine months 2025 sustainability performance for our group. The following are the highlights. SMC, along with its subsidiaries, Northern Cement and San Miguel Global Power Holdings, were recognized for its sustainability initiatives. On September 23, 2025, SMC received recognition as one of the sustainability champions from Manila Times. On October 23, 2025, the Asian Water Awards recognized SMC for its water conservation initiatives of the year for the Philippines, in particular for Northern Cement Corporation’s Reaping the Rain and Recycled Water program. San Miguel Global Power also received recognition from the same award-giving body for outstanding water resources contribution of the year for the Philippines.
This is for the Malita Power Plant’s entry and integration of treated into non-potable domestic water supply systems. Also, for Masinloc Power, was accorded three Asian Power Awards. One is Environmental Upgrade of the Year Philippines for its entry of Clean Chemistry, Sustainable Corrosion Mitigation at Masinloc Units, Operational Efficiency Initiative of the Year for its entry of Fuel Flexibility in a Cost-Effective Mill Improvement Project to promote industry innovation and customer satisfaction. Third, Circular Economy Leadership of the Year for Philippines for its entry of Cost-Effective Mill Enhancement Project, leveraging fuel flexibility to promote customer satisfaction and drive industry innovation. Overall, San Miguel Global Power was recognized then for Employee Engagement Initiative of the Year, GOLD, for the company-wide Sustainability Month event.
Other highlights of our sustainability performance, we continue to advance our environmental, social, and governance commitments, focusing on embedding sustainability into our core business processes and decision-making. Under environmental stewardship for our nine months 2025, integration of sustainability in capital projects was done. We have formally embedded a sustainability questionnaire into our capital expenditure process. This ensures that environmental and social impacts are systematically assessed for all proposed projects, supporting responsible investment decisions. Second, Climate Risk Assessment. This was completed in October 2025. So now our climate risk assessment has been completed. It’s identifying potential physical and transition risks across our operations. Business units now are reviewing the final materials to develop targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies. Next, under Capacity Building and Governance for Carbon Markets Readiness, this was completed September 3, 2025. We conducted a carbon markets workshop for our management team to strengthen internal understanding and readiness.
This initiative enhances our capacity to engage with emerging carbon pricing and trading mechanisms in the future. Lastly, as an energy update as of nine months 2025, over the next decade, we’d like to reiterate that we will be shifting towards renewables by expanding hydroelectricity capacity, building solar plants, and adding more battery storage systems. In June 2025, through JEA 3, Petron Corporation was awarded 4,200 megawatts of hydropower projects. Next, in October 2025, under the JEA 4, we secured over 2,225 megawatts of new solar projects. This marks a major step in transforming our portfolio and supporting the country’s clean energy transition. Lastly, we now move to the outlook and recent updates of the group. To reiterate, Petron is pressing ahead with its growth and expansion strategy, backed by solid operating performance amid the country’s current political situation and global economic challenges.
For the new Manila International Airport, progress on the land development and ground improvement works are ongoing, with areas ready for construction of key facilities. SMC continues to look for ways to optimize costs and overall project timelines. For the NAIA, completed improvements as of September 30, 2025, include the following. First, there are local road networks that have been upgraded with widened curbside areas to ease congestion and enhance traffic flow. A new automated parking system with expanded payment options has been installed to streamline entry and exit. Terminal 1 OFW Lounge and multi-phased prayer room, Terminal 3 Dignitaries Lounge, and airside employee cafeterias in all terminals have been completed. Implemented new traffic management schemes and designation of outer lane as taxi-only lanes at Terminal 3 have also been completed. Upgraded and migrated to SAP for automation of business processes have been done.
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems at Terminal 3 and lighting fixtures at Terminal 3 arrivals have also all been upgraded. Beyond the completed works, NAIA is also working on the following. In partnership with Collins Aerospace, ongoing rollout of modernized passenger processing and airport management systems, additional immigration e-gates, upgrading of key airport equipment such as elevators, walk-alators, explosive detection systems, passenger boarding bridges, advanced visual docking guidance systems, and lastly, terminal facilities such as expanded bus gates, lounges, and retail and dining halls are all on works. For MRT 7, the railway component’s percentage completion is at 81.5%. For the depot, site development and construction of other facilities are still ongoing. In addition, the submitted variation, which includes the new location of Station 4, is approved by the San Jose del Monte and DOTR.
Consequent to the new approved location of Station 14, there is also an ongoing study on the realignment of the highway component. On the toll roads, we continue to advance our improvement projects for existing toll roads such as Skyway System, NAIA X, SLEX, and STAR. Upgrades include road widening, additional entry exits, and interchange enhancements. Ongoing construction works on SLEX DR4 is progressing steadily well, with the toll roads percentage accomplishment and right-of-way acquisitions at 49.4% and 85% respectively. These projects would allow for greater development in Metro Manila and other fast-growing regions of Luzon by enhancing connectivity, easing congestion, and improving traffic flow, supporting the country’s overall social and economic development. Last, as of September 30, 2025, roughly 50% of the group’s 1,000 megawatt-hours of BESS projects are already in operation, delivering ancillary services to the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines.
Under a five-year ancillary service, or ASPA, or selling their spare capacities to the reserves through the Independent Electricity Market Operator to ensure grid stability. The remaining BESS projects in the pipeline are expected to commence commercial operations by 2026. Petron is also expanding its renewable energy portfolio through hydropower and solar energy projects, as mentioned earlier. On updates on our sustainability front, Petron is finalizing a sustainable finance framework to align financing with the ESG strategy of the group. The document is seen to establish the company’s decarbonization roadmap and will enable us to access sustainability-linked financing options, supporting the transition toward a lower carbon and more resilient business model for the group. Other projects in the pipeline include an automated platform to track sustainability data across all business units and development of business-level roadmaps for each of our four sustainability goals.
That brings us to the end of our presentation. Thank you for your time and attention, and we now open the floor and call for your questions. We now open the floor for your questions. We will be reading questions sent via the Q&A feature, or you may opt to use the raise hand feature, and we will allow you to raise your questions directly. Moderator, we can proceed with the questions. We have a question from, oh, we have a raised hand from Tony Watson. Tony, you can go ahead. Okay. Can you hear me okay? Yes, we can hear you. Great. Just one question on the Meralco claim. When I visited San Miguel Power a couple of months ago, they mentioned they’re expecting a final ruling on the second claim sometime late fourth quarter, early first quarter. Any update on that? May I take on that, Chescar?
Yes. Yes, Paul. Thank you. Thank you for your question. Let me update you first on the first claim. The first claim is for PHP 5.1 billion and pursuant to the ruling of the Supreme Court, which came out earlier this year, Meralco has paid already two out of the six-month installments up to date. Now, with respect to the second claim, which is a little over PHP 29 billion, about PHP 15 billion of that is still unaccrued by the company. We had a hearing with the ERC yesterday, basically to discuss the case. The way the case went on, there were two things that were apparent from the meeting. Number one, we were able to get a confirmation from Meralco with respect to the amount.
There is no dispute at all with respect to the amount of the claim. The legal basis for the second claim is tightly linked with the first case, which has already been ruled upon by the Supreme Court. Those two critical elements of the case were put on record by the hearing officer from the ERC, and we expect that the results of such hearing will be elevated to the commission when it will be meeting NBAC early December. I think with respect to the earlier assessment on the timelines, we will be a bit delayed with respect to the resolution. Maybe not this year, but definitely early next year, most probably January. Okay. That’s all I have. Thanks for that. Thank you. Thank you, Tony. Moderator, we can move to—yeah. We have a raised hand from AJ Sharma. Ajay? Yeah.
Hi. Can you talk about the, can you hear me? Yes, we can hear you. Okay. I want to know for both the spirits and beer business, the volume growth has been pretty modest. I guess spirits no volume growth, I guess, this year. I am just wondering how much was the price increase for both of them this year and how much was the excise increase? How do you see the fourth quarter shaping up? Hi, Ajay. Historically, for the fourth quarter, those are the beer months, the celebration months, because Christmas is a big event for the Philippines. Normally, across our businesses, food, wine, and red beer, volumes tend to improve sizably. In terms of the excise taxes, it is around 6% annually, and most of that is usually passed on or declared in the beginning of the year.
By now, the volume performance of the Q3 or the first nine months, I think really shows the challenge spirits and alcohol industry in the sense that the consumer habits have changed in terms of on-premise drinking and off-premise. We have more competitors as well as the earthquakes and the recent typhoons. They have had a very big effect as well as the economic effect on the consumption for non-essential goods, which is really our spirits and beer business. For food, you can see the volume is growing. Are you gaining market share? How is the market share trend for both the categories? You know, we are still very dominant in beer. As you know, we are 90-plus market share. I think to gain additional points is really difficult and challenging.
However, we are trying to introduce more variants, more SKUs to excite the market and to enter other more premium categories. That is where we are trying to gain market share away from the foreign brands. Also, for Ginebra or the spirits business, we have been gaining market share steadily, around close to 50+% for the white. Of course, there is still plenty of room for us to try to grow. We are trying to really penetrate the brown spirits market. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. We have a question from Mark Anthony Gangquanco. Congratulations on the results. Questions for GSMI. After half a decade of volume growth for GSMI and considering the perpetual increase of excise taxes, do you see GSMI moving towards the direction of growth in value due to higher prices and not necessarily in volume, as we may already have seen in the nine months of 2025?
Does the distribution network of GSMI still have a huge runway to drive volume growth? How does 4Q 2025 volumes of GSMI look like? Is it reasonable to expect the cash dividends next year to grow by the same rate as income this year and maintain the payout ratio? Okay. For the first, we already explained some of that. Definitely, the past years, we have been surprised at the market’s ability to absorb the higher prices. We have been passing on the increase in excise taxes to them, and the volume has been growing. Yes, we do not rely on being able to pass on the prices.
We still think that there is a lot of room for growth, not only for our flagship categories or brands such as the red or the low-cost gin, but we have many other SKU or categories that we’re trying to grow, especially in the Visayas and Mindanao or the southern regions. In terms of the distribution network, we have many untapped areas yet. We have been increasing dealer routes and distributors or dealers to our network, not only for Ginebra, but also for beer, because we feel that that’s really where we can improve, not only in increasing distributors, but also increasing wholesaler routes. We have also been increasing our CapEx for expansion-related or production capacity-related projects. We really do think there’s still a lot of room to grow, especially for spirits. For Q4, again, this is the best time for Ginebra, beer, and food.
Typically, the volume will really be very, very high average per day compared to the usual. For the cash dividends, we do not really provide guidance or guarantee on what we will be announcing for the following year. As you can see in the past years, our payout ratio has been steadily increasing. It really depends on the performance of the company. Thank you. We have another question from Carissa Magbayo. On FB, can you share sales growth trends so far in fourth quarter 2025? Are we seeing some improvements in demand across the three segments, namely beer, spirits, and food? Okay. This is almost the same question, but I will maybe share more about the food growth. As you know, we have a commodities business, which is mostly poultry and feeds, and those have been steadily growing very well.
The thing is, for poultry, prices of the poultry have gone down the past few weeks, so that may be affecting our volume. For our prepared and packaged food businesses, which are the branded or value-added, those are Purefoods, canned goods, and other templados or ready-to-cook, ready-to-eat type of products. Magnolia, which are heavy into butter, margarine, cheese type, or dairy type of businesses, those are heavily used by bakeries and the normal consumers or households because it is Christmas time, so they’re having a lot of sweets or desserts. That is what is going to be driving the food business for Q4. We have a question from Charminco. Question for Petron. May I ask how much inventory holding gain losses were in the third quarter, both in 2025 and 2024? For inventory gains and losses, for year-to-date September 2025, inventory losses amounted to roughly around PHP 2 billion.
This is a little lower or flattish coming from the disclosed figure in the first half of 2025. This is particularly because crude prices, crude by crude, basically consolidated in the third quarter of 2025 at around $70 per barrel. We did not see that much volatility. Now, if you compare it to year-to-date September 2024, inventory losses during that period is a little more than PHP 4 billion. Thank you. We have a question from an anonymous attendee. For Power, could you walk us through the expected base load capacity additions coming online in 2026-2027? Okay. That is sort of an industry question. I will answer it from our perspective nonetheless. Currently, the net reliable capacity in Luzon, which accounts for practically 70-80% of the country’s supply and demand, is around 14-15 gigawatts on a daily basis.
Out of that number, roughly 62% is more than 20 years old in terms of operating life. There is quite a bit of fragility on the supply side. With the ensuing coal moratorium that has been imposed by the Department of Energy, there has been quite a bit of expansion on the base load side. The Department of Energy has put across committed projects of roughly 9 gigawatts in solar capacities for the next three years. We expected plan factors ranging from 16-18%. From our end, what is for sure would be we are putting up 700 megawatts in base load capacity by next year from Masinloc units 4 and 5. I would say that I have quite a bit of insight on other generators’ plants with respect to base load capacities, but the total is relatively very small at 500 megawatts. Okay.
We have a raised hand from Aishwaryapai. Hi. My question is for San Miguel Global Power. Now that the auctions are completed, is it possible to give a guideline on the solar and hydropower CapEx and the timeline for it and the incremental EBITDA from those projects? And my second question is, what would be the funding source for the next maturities of dollar bond for San Miguel Global Power in 2026, which is close to $1 billion? Thank you. Okay. Several questions there. On the first one, what’s clear with respect to our hydropower projects that’s qualified under JA3 would be a CapEx headline of around $12 billion-$13 billion. That one, of course, is subject to cost optimization.
We’re looking at various approaches on construction and also on how we will configure the EPC with respect to those projects that should significantly reduce the cost further. From our initial assessment, we’re looking at somewhere between $5 billion-$6 billion. The equity component or the amount that we expect to spend in the next three to four years should be way smaller, somewhere between $2 billion-$3 billion. Again, subject to ongoing detailed studies, technical studies on the sites, and also depending on our ongoing negotiations with the OEM suppliers, particularly for the Francis turbines. With respect to our JA4 projects, which are the solar farms, that would entail a relatively smaller number in terms of CapEx.
It is more or less around $1.4 billion, which we expect to incur over the next four to five years for the awarded capacities of roughly 2,200 megawatts. Again, that amount is still subject to cost optimization depending on our ongoing negotiations on the panels. Considering that most of the civil works would be something that we can do already internally and also would entail relatively smaller costs as far as the sites that we have chosen are concerned because most of the solar projects are, in terms of megawatts, located in the Angat Water Reservoir, which since it is floating solar, there is supposedly minimal site development. Therefore, the timelines for its completion will be a lot shorter than the other ones in terms of timelines.
The COD for the solar projects would be, with respect to the 2,200 megawatts, should be completed within the next three years. Our JA3 projects, the hydropower projects, in five years’ time. The first batch of the 4.2 gigawatts should be available, roughly 2 gigawatts by 2029-2030. Second question on the refinancing. The DCM markets definitely is something that we are closely looking at. Our preference, of course, is to have the expiring dollar perps refinanced in PHP DCM sources. Of course, we are looking at the dollar markets as well, but in any case, we have the existing liquidity to be able to backstop any refinancing activities that we will be doing next year. We are fairly confident, at least for the perps that are expiring January 2026 and December 2026, that we should be able to easily have them refinanced.
Thank you very much for the answer. All right. Thank you. We have a question from an anonymous attendee. For Petron, what’s your current outlook for crude oil market next year? To be perfectly honest, it’s quite difficult to foresee into 2026 just given how fluid our business is and the confluence of factors that affect crude prices, right? What I can share, I guess, is how we see crude prices will be at least until the end of 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026. Currently, Dubai crude price is at around $65 per barrel. At least until the end of the year, until the end of 2025, we see it range trading more or less plus minus at $65 per barrel. It’s steady. That is particularly because of two factors, right, which will keep prices supported.
That is particularly the persistent geopolitical risks and the sanctions that were imposed on Russia and Iran. However, in the first quarter of 2025, we could see it probably range trade between $60-$65, maybe a little correction. That is particularly because of the demand and supply dynamics, which would pressure prices. On the demand side, as we all know, you can still see a lot of uncertainty in terms of tariffs, which of course has hampered economic activity. On the supply side, you would see OPEC Plus continuously adding into their production. This year alone, incremental volumes brought upon by OPEC is already at more than 2 million barrels. Based on their last announcement, in November and December, they would add incremental volumes of around 130,000 barrels per day each month. These are basically the factors that might pressure prices.
Nevertheless, we see it still more or less in a level of around $60 per barrel. It is not very volatile, relatively speaking. Thank you. We have a question from Q Huang. How were the price increases in SMFB in Q3? Can you break down in each segment, including food, beer, and spirits? Any price increases planned in Q4? Thank you, Q. The price increases were very minimal. For food, there was also around a small single-digit increase. Ginebra as well. For beer, we did not do a price increase for Q3. For Q4, I think the plan is to just maintain. If ever there will be some increases, it will be in a few months’ time. We have another question for Power. What is San Miguel Global Power’s plan for purchase equity shares at Meralco?
Could you talk about the progress of securing and rolling down project debt at Project Chromehead, Masinloc units 4 and 5? And could you share a bit the outlook and funding requirement for San Miguel Global Power in 2026? What’s construction and funding plan for solar projects 1 at JA4? Okay. Wow, so many questions. Let me go through them one by one. On the Meralco shares, it remains to be a strategic investment of the group. We’re quite happy, of course, with the dividend payout and the market value of these shares currently. With respect to adding more to these, it remains to be opportunistic in nature. Of course, depending on the circumstances presented to us. At the moment, these shares remain to be a highly strategic investment of the group.
With respect to the project debt for Chromite, for the Chromite entities, we are currently in the documentation phase with the lender banks. We are very close to having these finalized and executed maybe later this year or early next year. The total debt that could be raised there is roughly PHP 145 billion in total. On the project level debt for Masinloc 4 and 5, it’s progressing very well. We’ve been getting quite a bit of interest and commitments from local banks. We are more or less confident that we’ll be able to raise at least PHP 50 billion-PHP 60 billion from this. That should pretty much knock off any remaining debt on the EPC for units 4 and 5.
As far as we are concerned, in as much as the EPC invoices are not yet due to date by virtue of the vendor financing arrangement that we have in place for these units, this pretty much would have no significant impact to us in terms of cash flows, at least in the next two years. Okay. Last question. Last two questions. Could you remind me again what were the last two questions you asked? EBITDA outlook, the EBITDA outlook and funding requirement for 2026, and construction funding plan for solar projects. Okay.
On the EBITDA outlook for 2026, what we’ve seen this year is pretty much indicative of what we expect to see next year, except that we will have full-year contributions from battery projects that we have coming that we’ve commissioned and put into commercial operation early this year, bringing the total to around 500 megawatts. By next year, we expect the rest of the 500 megawatt pipeline to become fully operational as well. It’s an opportune time to get into ancillary services, especially since the DOE is integrating quite a bit of intermittent capacities into the grid. As I mentioned earlier, over the next three years, it expects to integrate around 9 gigawatts of intermittent solar capacities. Our batteries are strategically positioned to be able to provide power quality services to NGCP to be able to allow such integration.
With respect to the, and therefore, our profit outlook for next year should be at least around PHP 70 billion in terms of EBITDA. With respect to our funding plan for next year, a lot of those actually are refinancing activities. The biggest debt that are maturing next year will be our January 2026 perp. We have that pretty much pinned down. We are looking at two very concrete financing activities that we are very confident should be able to have that refinanced over at least a five-year period. The December 2026 perps, as I mentioned earlier, we are looking at a peso DCM deal for that. We have to have it redenominated and financed also over the long term.
The rest of the financing activities next year would either involve syndication involving foreign banks and also local banks, again, to be able to refinance roughly PHP 30 billion-PHP 40 billion in expiring debt next year. How to finance the solar projects? I did mention the CapEx earlier. It’s $1.4 billion, but that is expected to be incurred over a four or five-year period. The primary method or approach that we’re looking at to do this will be through the vendors. Because of the magnitude of the capacities that San Miguel Global Power is going to foray into, a lot of contractors, OEM suppliers for panels, are actually offering us a lot of options with respect to vendor-initiated or vendor-financed deals.
That will give us a lot of flexibility in terms of financing these projects, not only with respect to the equity component, but also on the debt component. As you know, given the nature of the Green Energy Auction Award, it is basically a government-sponsored off-take contract or set of contracts. We are very confident that at some point in the next two years, once we have paid at least the equity component of the $1.4 billion, we will be able to raise the requisite OPCO level debt. Again, given the vendor financing that we have put in place, we are under no pressure to actually have this done at least in the next five years. I hope I have covered all your questions. Let me know if there is anything else. Thank you. With the interest of time, we have one last question from an anonymous attendee.
For San Miguel Corporation, what is the net debt at the parent level as of 9M25? Thank you, Ian. For that question, parent net debt of San Miguel Corporation is PHP 701.4 billion as of 9 months 2025. Thank you. All right. That concludes our Q&A. Thank you to everyone for your questions and to our panelists for providing detailed and informative answers to our queries. For those who have further questions, you may address it to us via email at smcinvestorrelations@sanmiguel.com.ph. Thank you and good day. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. See you next briefing. Thanks for joining.
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