Earnings call transcript: ProAssurance Q4 2024 beats expectations, stock surges

ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) delivered a strong performance in Q4 2024, significantly beating earnings and revenue forecasts. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.36, compared to the expected $0.18, while revenue reached $290.1 million, surpassing the forecasted $228.42 million. This robust performance led to a 16.58% increase in the company’s stock price, which closed at $16.45, nearing its 52-week high of $17.79. According to InvestingPro data, the company has maintained profitability over the last twelve months, with a healthy current ratio of 2.15x, indicating strong liquidity management.

Key Takeaways

• ProAssurance’s EPS doubled analyst expectations.
• Revenue exceeded forecasts by over $61 million.
• Stock surged by over 16% in post-earnings trading.
• Positive outlook on investment income and book value per share.
• Challenges persist in legal and workers’ compensation markets.

Company Performance

ProAssurance demonstrated strong financial performance in Q4 2024, with significant improvements in earnings and revenue compared to forecasts. The company has shown resilience despite challenging market conditions, particularly in the medical professional liability sector. The implementation of new technologies and partnerships has positioned ProAssurance for continued growth.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $290.1 million, exceeding forecasts by $61.68 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.36, double the expected $0.18.
• Net investment income increased by 9% for the quarter.
• Book value per share rose to $23.49.

Earnings vs. Forecast

ProAssurance’s actual EPS of $0.36 surpassed the forecast of $0.18 by 100%, marking a significant positive surprise. The revenue beat of over $61 million further underscores the company’s strong performance this quarter.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, ProAssurance’s stock price rose by 16.58%, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s performance and future prospects. The stock’s movement towards its 52-week high indicates a positive market sentiment, driven by the earnings beat and optimistic guidance.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, ProAssurance remains focused on maintaining rate adequacy and cautiously expanding investment risks. The company expects to continue pushing rates in its specialty P&C and workers’ compensation segments in 2025, with a disciplined approach to underwriting.

Executive Commentary

"Profitability over growth continues to be the mantra for us," stated Ned Rand, President and CEO, emphasizing the company’s focus on sustained profitability. CFO Dana Hendricks added, "We are seeing signs that our actions are delivering positive results." Rand further noted, "We remain confident in our ability to ultimately achieve sustained underwriting profitability in both businesses despite market headwinds."

Risks and Challenges

• The medical professional liability market is facing a challenging legal environment.
• Social inflation and eroding tort reform present ongoing pressures.
• Competitive pressures from excess capital in the market.
• Declining loss costs in the workers’ compensation market.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the competitive landscape and capital management strategies. Discussions also covered challenges in workers’ compensation rates and expense ratio considerations, highlighting the company’s strategic focus areas.

Full transcript - ProAssurance Corp (NYSE:PRA) Q4 2024:

Conference Moderator: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ProAssurance’s conference call to discuss the company’s Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Results. I’d like to remind you that the call is being recorded and there will be time for questions after the conclusion of the prepared remarks.

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: Now I will turn the call over to Heather Wetzel.

Heather Wetzel, Unspecified Executive, ProAssurance: Good morning, everyone. ProAssurance issued its news release, investor presentation and 2024 report on Form 10 K yesterday, 02/24/2025. Included in those documents were cautionary statements about the significant risks, uncertainties and other factors that are out of the company’s control and could affect ProAssurance’s business and alter expected results. Please review those statements. This morning, our management team will discuss selected aspects of the results on this call and investors should review the 10 ks and news release for full and complete information.

We expect to make statements on this call dealing with projections, estimates and expectations and explicitly identify these as forward looking statements within the meaning of The U. S. Federal Securities Law and subject to applicable safe harbor protections. Content of this call is accurate only on 02/25/2025, and except as required by law or regulation, ProAssurance will not undertake or expressly disclaim any obligation to update or alter information disclosed as part of these forward looking statements. We also expect to reference non GAAP items during today’s call.

Company’s recent news release provides a reconciliation of these non GAAP numbers to their GAAP counterparts. On the call with me today are Ned Rand, President and CEO and Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining on the call today are executive leadership team members, Rob Francis, Kevin Shook and Karen Murphy. Now, we’ll turn the call over to Ned.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Thank you. And I’d like to start by welcoming everyone to our call. Yesterday, we reported our fifth consecutive quarter of improved operating earnings. In particular, these results demonstrate the progress we’re making in our medical professional liability business, which makes up the majority of our largest segment, specialty P and C. My comments are focused on ongoing core operations.

Dan will touch on the impact of our Lloyd’s business on our net income for the quarter. For the quarter, the Specialty P and C segment reported a combined ratio of 101% benefiting from almost nine points of favorable prior accident year reserve development. And a sign that our multi year effort to respond to rising medical professional liability severity is generating positive results. The segment’s full year combined ratio improved sequentially by nearly five points to 104%, including almost six points of favorable development. Continuing social inflation and eroding tort reform mean we are facing a challenging legal environment exacerbated by legal system abuse.

We believe we have stayed ahead of many in the space in achieving rate levels in NPL that outpaced the resulting severity trends. We’ve achieved more than 20 points of improvement in the accident year loss and LAE ratio since 2019 due to renewal premium increases as well as the impact of our re underwriting efforts and other strategic initiatives. Even with the progress of this past year, work remains. We continue to forego renewal and new business opportunities that we believe do not meet our expectation of rate adequacy in the current loss environment. Renewal premium increases in this year’s fourth quarter were 10% for our standard NPL business and 8% for the specialty portion of our NPL book.

This brings renewal premium increases since 2018 within our NPL line of business to almost 70% cumulatively. We remain very well positioned in the market and highly relevant in our targeted sectors and with our distribution partners. Exclusive of rate changes, retention of our existing premiums was a solid 83% in the quarter, including strong retention in the standard book, where we rate much of our more profitable small to mid sized accounts. As expected, new business continues to be impacted by our focus on rate adequacy and was below twenty twenty three for the quarter and the year. Complementing our focus on pricing is our commitment to disciplined underwriting and managing claims to address market conditions.

Innovation tools continue to enhance our risk selection, pricing decisions and workflows. As we’ve said, predictive analytics are letting us leverage our extensive data and help us identify specific geographic markets and especially subsectors where there are opportunities to write business that we believe will meet our profitability objectives. We’re also committed to ensuring that our insureds and distribution partners find us easy to do business with, helping distinguish us in the marketplace. In late twenty twenty four, we launched an AI ready web portal that delivers a variety of enhanced self-service options for policyholders and agents. We’re enhancing workflows using the functionality of the new system and are in the process of filing a fully revised policy form and manuals for use nationwide for all of our standard business.

Turning to our workers’ compensation segment, we continue to carefully manage our underwriting appetite as we work to obtain the necessary rate and address the higher medical loss trends that we initially saw in mid-twenty twenty three, although they had begun to moderate over 2024. Net written premiums were up only $4,000,000 for the year, reflecting higher audit premiums and improved renewal pricing, while new business and our traditional book was more than $4,000,000 below last year. In addition, we believe our focus on operational discipline is having a positive impact with the combined ratio improved for the quarter and the year compared with 2023. The progress we were making has partially been due to our ability to leverage the integrated policy claims risk management and billing system we implemented in early twenty twenty four. Not only is that system working well, it is paving the way for innovation initiatives that will help us address the challenging market conditions.

These initiatives are using AI tools along with underwriting and claims data analytics to enhance profitability, productivity and efficiency. We are pleased with the initial implementation with workers’ comp claims specialist Claire Analytics. This partnership will help us enhance medical outcomes for injured workers, improve our case reserve estimation capabilities, enlighten the administrative burdens of our claims professionals. We are leveraging their platform to address aspects of escalating medical costs, including their medical document intelligence platform that assists with directing care to the best performing providers and their tool to help identify high severity claims early in the claims lifecycle. And that’s just one example of what’s underway in our workers’ compensation segment.

We’re also ramping up a tool to optimize our network and medical management partners. Plus, we are making innovation investments in proprietary underwriting tools that expand the use of data analytics to guide and support operational decisions, improving penetration in the more profitable small account market segment. Across the organization, we remain intently focused on reaching our long term objectives and the results that we need to achieve. We are pleased with the progress of 2024, but we will not compromise to achieve a short term fix at the expense of protecting our balance sheet and our insureds over the long term. Our long history in both medical professional liability and workers’ compensation has taught us that these cyclical lines will respond to our focus efforts.

We remain confident in our ability to ultimately achieve sustained underwriting profitability in both businesses despite market headwinds. We know that maintaining our discipline is key to delivering positive long term results. I think you’ll see more signs of our progress as Dana looks further into these results. Dana?

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: Thanks, Ned. I’m going to dive a bit deeper into aspects of the Specialty P and C and Workers’ Compensation segments and overall results before turning to investments. First, let me touch on one housekeeping item. As the release indicated, we have excluded from operating earnings the results from our previous participation in Lloyd’s Syndicate as the business is currently in runoff. As we’ve previously reported, we ceased participating in Lloyd’s Syndicate seventeen twenty nine and 06/1931 beginning in 2024 and 2022 respectively, although a few underwriting years remain open.

While we typically report these results on a one quarter delay, we were informed in January by syndicate management of a significant fourth quarter increase in IBNR reserve from aviation risks from the 2021 underwriting year for Syndicate six thousand one hundred and thirty one. Accordingly, we accelerated the reporting of these losses into our fourth quarter, which had the impact of reducing fourth quarter net income by $5,300,000 or about $0.1 per share. The impact on the reported Specialty P and C segment combined ratio for the quarter was about three points. Turning to the Specialty P and C segment results without Lloyd’s, net written premiums declined for both the fourth quarter and full year reflecting our disciplined pricing strategies and underwriting appetite for medical professional liability business. The segment’s combined ratio from core ongoing operations improved for the full year largely due to favorable development in accident years 2021 and prior with a net loss ratio of 76.9%.

As we said last quarter, claims are generally closing favorably relative to our expectations. Turning to the current accident year loss ratio, we are continuing to see a positive impact from the underwriting and pricing actions taken over the past twelve months with the full year current accident year loss ratio for the medical professional liability business improving by around 0.5 points. In the fourth quarter, some of the benefit of those actions was overshadowed by several factors, including recognition of loss severity trends in a few jurisdictions. Further, the quarter over quarter comparison was impacted by the lowered estimate of unallocated loss adjustment expenses in the prior year quarter as well as a year over year change in premium ceded to reinsurers. For workers’ compensation, our renewal rate change reflects our focus on rate adequacy in an environment that continues to experience state mandated loss cost decreases.

However, we have seen the decline in rates slow to just 2% as compared to the 5% decline in the prior year as our actions are yielding results. The increase in net written premiums for the quarter and year was largely due to higher audit premiums that reflect continued wage inflation, partially offset by rate. The segment’s full year combined ratio was 114% with the current accident year net loss ratio at 77% or four points below 2023. Fourth quarter and full year net favorable prior accident year reserve development for the segment was $500,000 whereas in 2023, we strengthened reserves due to the higher than expected loss trends observed at that time. Across the entire organization, headcount declined 6% in 2024.

However, as we noted last quarter, the year over year improvement in our consolidated results has raised incentive based compensation costs leading to higher expense ratios in all segments. Turning to investment results, we had another solid quarter to finish off a very strong year. Net investment income rose 9% for the quarter and 12% for the year as we continue to take advantage of the rate environment. New purchase yields in the fourth quarter for the consolidated portfolio were approximately 5.8% or two thirty basis points higher than our average book yield of 3.5%. The fixed maturity portfolio remains high quality with 93% in investment grade bonds with an average duration of three point two years.

We continue to manage our asset duration to largely match that of our liabilities and to optimize our portfolio to generate yield. Our investments in limited partnerships and LLCs reported as equity and earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries added another $5,000,000 to earnings for the quarter, bringing the full year contribution to $22,000,000 up $12,000,000 from 2023. These structures typically report on a one quarter lag and they are continuing to produce strong returns. Reported book value per share rose by $1.67 since year end 2023 to $23.49 driven by earnings per share of $1.03 and the change in accumulated other comprehensive income

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: of $0.64

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: which was largely due to after tax holding gains of $26,000,000 on our fixed maturity portfolio that flow directly to equity. Adjusted book value per share has also increased to $26.86 As you would expect, our portfolio still includes a number of fixed maturity securities in an unrealized loss position. We have both the intent and ability to hold these securities until maturity. So should bond yields decline or as our portfolio matures, those unrealized losses will accrete back to book value. Further, there is upside because our current investment leverage is 3.5 times GAAP equity.

To close, let me reiterate that we are seeing signs that our actions are delivering positive results. Ned?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Thanks, Dana. We’re certainly encouraged by the progress we’re making with full year operating earnings of $0.95 per share and an operating ratio of 94.5%. We know there is more to be done to achieve our long term profitability objectives and expect continued progress and look forward to sharing results in coming quarters.

Heather Wetzel, Unspecified Executive, ProAssurance: That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we’re ready for questions.

Conference Moderator: Thank you. And our first question today comes from Mark Hughes from Tremont.

Mark Hughes, Analyst, Tremont: How would you characterize the competition in the fourth quarter? I think you had very good renewal premiums. You’re pushing on pricing and that’s contributing to the improved profitability. How should we think about the trajectory of competition? Was it a little more meaningful in the fourth quarter or less so?

How do you think about growth going into 2025? And I’m thinking here the specialty P and C business.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Yes. Some good questions, Mark. I don’t think we really saw anything different in the fourth quarter that we’ve seen throughout 2024. And I think as we look forward to 2025, we really don’t see anything different either. And so the market continues to be awash with capital, and that excess capital sitting in the hands of some players causes them to be aggressive in the markets that they seek to protect and also as they look to potentially expand to expand to use some of that capital.

And I would say that’s how much of 2024 played out and what we would expect in 2025. So profitability over growth continues to be the mantra for us. We certainly will look for opportunities to grow as they present themselves. But driving rate, being willing to forego retention in order to achieve that rate is going to be a higher priority. And I think that’s what you saw happen in 2024 and I would expect in 2025 as well.

I do think it speaks to our position in the marketplace that in spite of those competitive pressures, we’re able to achieve the rate gains that we are and still maintain what I think are very attractive retention rates with that kind of backdrop.

Mark Hughes, Analyst, Tremont: Understood. And then the reserve development within Specialty, what accident years did that come from?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: It’s kind of spread out in a number of different places. If you look at we still look kind of at the NorCal business and the legacy business a little bit separately, although that’s coming more and more together. But I would say that on the Norco business where we see some things develop more quickly, it’s coming from some more recent years. And then on the legacy business,

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: it’s 2020 and prior largely.

Mark Hughes, Analyst, Tremont: And then, your current accident, your loss pick improved in 2024, but still kind of around 83%. Any early thoughts on what we should expect at the start of 2025?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Not really beyond what I said a minute ago, which is we’re just going to continue to push rate as hard as we can in the marketplace. We believe there’s more rate that needs to be taken and we’ll seek to make 2025 look a lot like 2024 in that regard.

Mark Hughes, Analyst, Tremont: Thank you.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Paul, your line is open. You’re checking up muted locally.

Paul Newsome, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Yes. Hi. Sorry about that. So great answers on the specialty business. Maybe you could turn to the workers’ comp business a little bit more.

Any additional color on sort of how you want to push rate or can push rate in that business given it’s a little bit different competitive environment?

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: Yes.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Thanks, Paul. And I like your word kind of will and can because I think in work comp that can push rate is certainly a factor, right? The rating bureaus certainly have a lot of sway and the rates are able to drive and push for in the work comp marketplace. And we continue to see the loss cost indications coming from those rating growth going down. That decline is largely led by a decline in claim frequency kind of across the space and each of the states that we operate in.

But it’s also very backwards looking oftentimes with data that we consider a bit stale and probably not factoring in sufficiently the severity that’s taking place within the work comp marketplace. And so the challenge for the team at Eastern is to figure out a way to kind of push rates forward in a market that has lost cost indications, that probably should be trending up that are continuing to trend down. And so we are an individual account underwriter, so we strive to make those decisions where we can. But that lost cost decline does very much inform the market and the behavior in the market. And sometimes I feel like we’re a bit alone in the wilderness and talking about some of the challenges we’re seeing in the work comp market, but we’re confident that the rest of the market will catch up to us at some point.

But for 2025, again, a lot like 2024 for work comp. We managed to keep rate almost flat in a market where loss cost multipliers were down and kind of the same sort of objective for 2025 that we saw in 2024, really push hard against those and continue to underwrite on an individual account basis, get the rates that we believe are adequate.

Paul Newsome, Analyst, Piper Sandler: On the workers’ comp side, do you think you’re seeing a difference in frequency trend than others are seeing? Or is it just the severity that differentiates your book from what others may be thinking or seeing?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Yes. I think probably I think it’s more on the severity side and kind of building the severity end than it is on the frequency side. I don’t know the specific numbers for ’24, but if you take over the last five to ten years, we I think have seen frequency declines very much in line with what the market is seeing. I think we’re just responding to severity concerns, much more so than frequency. Although, we don’t think frequency is going to keep going down either.

Paul Newsome, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Great. Thank you. Appreciate the help as always.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Thanks, Paul.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Matt Carletti from JMP. Matt, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Good

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: morning, Matt.

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: Ned and Dana, I was hoping you could hey, good morning. I was hoping you could update us on your thoughts on capital management. Just as I sit here, kind of you talk about kind of sounds like pretty not a lot of growth, maybe flattish premiums. Equity continues to grow. A few quarters ago, you did some buybacks.

Stock remains at a pretty good discount to book value. So, just if you could help us kind of get inside your head on how you’re thinking about that.

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: Yes. Good morning, Matt. Happy to take that question. Of course, when we’re thinking about our capital management, we’re considering many different factors, including what do we need to be operating subsidiaries, in order to support achievement of our underwriting goals. We’re going to balance that with maintaining capital efficiency.

We’re also going to think about recognizing and prioritizing the importance of our A rating with A Invest. And we think it’s important to keep the RBCs for the insurance group solidly stable with adequate capacity for volatility and we’re quite satisfied that we’re accomplishing that. As you know, when we think about capital allocation, we’re considering the opportunity to diversify the investment portfolio to pick up yield. A few years back, we had prior to the acquisition of NorCal, we intentionally derisked the portfolio as we sought to build capital in anticipation of that particular acquisition. And now we’re cautiously optimistic that we can add some investment risk back to the portfolio and increase our allocations to certain sectors that we believe are accretive and capital efficient.

Across the organization, our goal is, on our long term objectives and the results that we need to achieve, including investing in our operations and enhancing profitability, productivity, efficiency, etcetera. So repurchase is certainly something that we’re going to consider, but in the context of other uses of capital, including operating company needs and debt levels.

Unidentified Speaker, ProAssurance: All right. Thank you very much.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Sure.

Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Gregory Peters from Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gregory Peters, Analyst, Raymond James: Good morning, everyone. I’d like to go back to the comments on the higher expense ratio. Maybe provide a little additional color inside the higher specialty combined ratio. I think you cited out comp and agent compensation. Is this a new level that we should expect going forward if I look at the annual result?

And then associated with that, can you just update us on your agent relationships? Has there been any change in distribution partners, things like that?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: Yes. Maybe starting at the end of that question, Greg, no material changes on the agency relationship side. We continue to see consolidation in that space, and private equity ownership in that space that certainly puts pressure on commission levels and expectations around commission levels. But that’s really nothing new. We expect that to continue on into 2025.

I’ll let Dana answer your more specific question on the expense ratio.

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: Yes. Well, what I would just sort of round out a little bit there, Greg, is that when you’re looking at our fourth quarter comparison, there are a number of moving parts involved there. When you look at the full year, the ratio was up, just over two points because of a variety of unusual items really. And certainly, the increase in the incentive comp this year added nearly two points to the 2024 quarterly ratio. I will say though that recall that 2023 was you know on the very low side of achievement and sort in in terms of short term incentive comps So that creates quite a swing from between the two years whenever you’re comparing.

And then further, the 2023 ratio had a number of onetime benefits that reduced that expense ratio as well.

Gregory Peters, Analyst, Raymond James: So just to clarify that answer, I’m looking at your SpecialtyPC segment results table and I’m just let’s just focus on the full year, the 27.1% underwriting expense ratio versus 25.6. Seems like there’s moving parts in both directions on 2324%. Is 27.1% for the twenty four years, that’s sort of like a good normalized run rate that includes both the good guys and the bad guys that you cited in your answer?

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: I think what I would say there, Greg, is that as we continue to focus on risk selection, we are going to be pressured on the earned premium side of that equation. All the while, managing the expense dollars themselves downward, but the ratio will remain pressured.

Gregory Peters, Analyst, Raymond James: Okay. That makes sense. I’m sorry if I missed it in your previous answer. I’m sorry, did you were you able to add something, Dana? No.

Okay. In your previous answer on RBC, I’m sorry if I missed it. I was distracted with something else. What was the RBC ratio at the end of ’twenty four relative to where was it, the end of ’twenty three?

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: I’m sorry, Greg. Are you talking about statutory NAIC, based risk based capital? I don’t have the stat statements here in front of us.

Dana Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, ProAssurance: I can tell you it’s better.

Ned Rand, President and CEO, ProAssurance: I think everything improved in a year, but I don’t have that data in front of us.

Gregory Peters, Analyst, Raymond James: That’s fine. I was just trying to figure out every company has a target zone. You talked about a target zone. I just was wondering what that looks like. But we can talk about this offline once you have the data in front of you.

So thanks very much for your answers.

Conference Moderator: This will conclude today’s Q and A session. So I’ll hand the call back to Heather for some closing comments.

Heather Wetzel, Unspecified Executive, ProAssurance: Thank you everyone for joining us today. Feel free to reach out if you have any follow-up questions and we’ll look forward to the next quarterly call. Have a great day.

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