Earnings call transcript: Rain’s Q1 2025 revenue falls, stock drops 4%

Rain Enhancement Technologies reported its Q1 2025 earnings, revealing a decline in consolidated net revenue to INR 36,490 million from INR 40,790 million the previous year. Despite an increase in adjusted EBITDA, the company’s stock fell 4.06% to $2.34, reflecting investor concerns over the revenue drop and market conditions. According to InvestingPro data, the stock’s RSI indicates oversold territory, while the company’s Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 0.46, labeled as "WEAK" by analysts.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue decreased to INR 36,490 million from the previous year’s INR 40,790 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased by INR 1,120 million year-over-year.
• The company’s stock fell 4.06% following the earnings announcement.
• Rain is expanding its capabilities in the battery anode materials sector.
• The company expects positive growth in its Advanced Materials segment in 2025.

Company Performance

Rain Enhancement Technologies faced a challenging quarter with a noticeable drop in revenue compared to the previous year. However, the company managed to increase its adjusted EBITDA, indicating improved operational efficiency. Rain’s diversified revenue streams, with significant exposure to the aluminum and construction sectors, helped mitigate some of the revenue pressures. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 12 additional ProTips and comprehensive analysis through the Pro Research Report, offering deeper insights into the company’s performance and future prospects.

Financial Highlights

• Consolidated Net Revenue: INR 36,490 million, down from INR 40,790 million in 2023.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Increased by INR 1,120 million year-over-year.
• Net Debt: US$699 million.
• Gross Debt: US$918 million, including US$96 million in working capital debt.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Rain’s stock price dropped by 4.06% to $2.34. This decline reflects investor apprehension regarding the company’s revenue performance and broader market trends. The stock’s movement was within its 52-week range, which spans from a low of $2.25 to a high of $10.84. InvestingPro data shows the stock has a beta of -0.11, indicating it typically moves contrary to market direction, while experiencing high price volatility.

Outlook & Guidance

The company remains cautiously optimistic about its prospects for 2025, expecting growth in its Advanced Materials segment and an increase in CPC sales volume. Rain is also focusing on reestablishing normalized operating margins and anticipates an 8% growth in cement sales.

Executive Commentary

"We are resolute in our efforts to navigate these uncertain times and remain committed to achieving sustainable growth and success," stated Jagann Reddy Laud, Managing Director. He also highlighted the challenges in the calcination market due to evolving green petroleum coke supply dynamics.

Risks and Challenges

• Supply Chain Issues: Ongoing challenges in securing raw materials could impact production and costs.
• Market Saturation: Intense competition in the battery materials sector may pressure margins.
• Macroeconomic Pressures: Global economic uncertainties could affect demand in key markets.
• Debt Levels: High net debt of US$699 million could constrain financial flexibility.
• Regulatory Changes: New regulations in key markets could impact operations and profitability.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts focused on raw material supply challenges and market dynamics in the carbon and battery materials sectors. Discussions also covered pricing trends in green petroleum coke, a crucial input for Rain’s operations.

Full transcript - Rain Enhancement Technologies (RAIN) Q4 2024:

Saran Parni, General Manager of Corporate Reporting and Investor Relations, RAIN Industries Limited: Greetings to everyone. A warm welcome to you all for today’s management presentation from Rade Industries Limited. My name is Saran Parni and I serve as General Manager of Corporate Reporting and Investor Relations at Rade Industries Limited. Earlier today, we have released our results for the fourth quarter and year ended 12/31/2024 and the same is also posted on our website. Shortly, we will guide you through the performance highlights of Raine Industries Limited for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four.

The speakers for today are Mr. Jagann Reddy Laud, Managing Director of RAIN Industries Limited Mr. Gerard Srinivas Rao, President of RAIN Carbon, Inc. And Mr. T.

Srinivas Rao, Chief Financial Officer of Trade Industries Limited. Before we proceed, the management would like to give a note that during this management discussion, forward looking statements may be discussed that include various subjects such as outcomes, trends, targets and strategic directions. These statements rely on our current projections and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary materially from those suggested by these forward looking statements. There are certain risk factors that could lead to results differing significantly from our predictions. The discussion today contains certain non GAAP financial measures.

The related non GAAP reconciliations are provided in the accompanying slides. Please turn to Slide three at this time, where Mr. Jagann Reddy will offer insights to the key development at the RAIN Group, Lydney Airport quarter of twenty twenty four. Thank you. And I now hand it over to Mr.

Jagan.

Jagann Reddy Laud, Managing Director, RAIN Industries Limited: Thank you, Saran, and greetings to all. Turning to slide three of the presentation, let us begin with safety. We have finished the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four with two recordable incidents and a total recordable incident rate or TRIR of 0.13 for the twelve months ended December 2024. This refers to all three of our business segments and marks an improvement over the year. It also keeps Rhein firmly positioned as best in class in terms of safety as an industrial operator.

Just to add, we implemented the international safety standards even in our cement business from the current year. The two recordable incidents which we had during the first quarter were both in the slip, trip and fall category and relatively minor in nature. Fortunately, neither employee was seriously injured and both have returned to work. Our unwavering commitment to safety is driven not by the pursuit of statistical goals or industry accolades, but by the genuine care we hold for the well-being of our employees. They deserve to feel safe and supported within our company and we are dedicated for creating such an environment.

To this end, we continuously adapt our safety strategies and initiatives to address evolving trends both within our plans and across industry. Turning to our financial performance, we concluded the fourth quarter with an EBITDA of INR 3,900,000,000.0 and ended the year with an EBITDA of INR 14,980,000,000.00. While the fourth quarter EBITDA showed improvement over our third quarter earnings and surpassed the previous year’s quarterly results, we recognize that we have not yet achieved our normalized quarterly EBITDA target. The primary factor influencing our return to normalized earnings is related to raw materials. Specifically, obtaining the right quality raw materials at favorable prices has posed significant challenges for some of our businesses over the past several quarters.

In our Carbon segment, we continue to face pressures on volume and margins due to market competition and unique raw material supply circumstances. As we enter the New Year, our focus is on reestablishing our normalized operating margins to stabilize our overall performance. This step is crucial for achieving our calendar year 2025 objectives and we remain cautiously optimistic about our prospects in the current calendar year. Aligned with our strategic plan to reduce fixed costs, we spent the second half of twenty twenty four optimizing operations at our manufacturing plants and adjusting our global workforce to match current demand conditions. These efforts have enabled us to reduce costs while maximizing productivity, ensuring that we remain competitive and efficient in our operations.

In our Carbon segment’s calcination business, the supply situation has been particularly perplexed. Despite a global decrease in demand for calcium, petroleum coke or CPC, following the downturn in early twenty twenty three. Demand and pricing for raw material, green petroleum coke or GPC have remained surprisingly robust. This resilience is favorably driven by demand from the emerging battery anode materials or BAM sector. Over the past five years, the demand from the BAM sector has been somewhat sporadic, largely dependent on the availability of natural and synthetic graphite.

However, it has become increasingly evident over the last few quarters that the demand for GPC from the BAM sector is not a passing trend, but a likely permanent shift. Initially, the incursion of BAM sector demand was confined to the global markets for ultra low sulfur GPC, which is about below 1% sulfur and low metals GPC products. This happened during periods when the demand for graphite raw materials was strong and causing initial disruptions limited to ultra low sulfur GPC. As the VAM sector has expanded, what was once transient demand has transformed into consistent and ongoing demand as this emerging sector seeks sufficient raw materials to sustain its growth. Consequently, despite the steep decline in CPC prices over the past two years, GPC prices have remained comparatively high.

This persistent demand from the BAM sector has maintained upward pressure on GPC prices, creating a unique supply challenge for our calcinations business. The calcinations industry has taken some time to fully grasp and respond to the significant changes in the market dynamics. Historically, calciners have been able to offer the highest prices for anodegrade GPC, giving them priority access to the globally available GPC supply. Although the BAM sector previously entered the market and paid higher premiums, this only occurred during spring periods and typically in upmarket situation. What was once perceived as a temporary or minor disruption is now a permanent fixture in the global GPC demand portfolio with the BAM sector consistently paying premium prices compared to the traditional anodegrade GPC users.

Over the past year, as we have observed the development of this new demand, it became evident that its impact on calcinations margins necessitated a response. The calcination market is now facing the realities of the evolving GPC supply marketplace. In the initial two months of 2025, we observed a notable surge in both demand and prices from for ultra low to mid sulfur GPC with reduced metal content. This increase was primarily fueled by the increased demand from the BIM manufacturers to China. Initially, prices rose towards the end of twenty twenty four in anticipation of the Chinese New Year with pre holiday restocking activities.

It was expected that prices would stabilize after the holiday, but this did not have occurred. Interest prices for both GPC and CPC continue to climb in China as we enter 2025. For the calcinations industry, this tipping point has initiated a long awaited direction change in prices. In early twenty twenty five, we are witnessing a rebalancing of the GPC, CPC relationship. CPC prices are once again ascending, aligning more closely with the cost of GPC.

This adjustment is resulting in normalized calcinations margins for the first time in past two years. This 2025 change in market direction is an important step in reestablishing our margins and now allows us to move forward with our plan to maximize our sales in India and the surrounding region as we leverage our unique global CBC production capacities, logistics and blending assets to reinstate our global blend strategy. Now to take you back to 2024 and back to looking at our two carbon businesses together again as one carbon segment, we experienced a 5% quarter over quarter decline in volumes during the fourth quarter, mostly driven by CPC, while prices were relatively flat quarter over quarter. Drilling into this, in our Carbon segment’s calcinations business, CPC sales volume went down 9% versus our strong third quarter sales, but still consistent with our expectations. Looking forward from the end of twenty twenty four, we expect CPC sales volumes to increase during the course of 2025, building up gradually throughout the year as we continue to ramp up our vertical shaft calcined production capacity in our reseller plant in India and begin to restart our unique integrated global blend strategy almost after a gap of six years.

As you will recall from our prior calls, the return to the global blend strategy is now achievable due to relaxation of Indian import restrictions, which are in place since July 2018. And while CPC markets were basically flat in pricing during the fourth quarter, we have seen as mentioned above a functional shift in China for pricing of both GPC raw materials and the finished product CPC. Prices have not just changed direction, but they have necessarily done so with CPC’s price in China rising substantially in the past in the first two months of twenty twenty five. This significant structural change in the carbon calcinations business and the transformation underscores the critical importance of securing access to GPC, especially in light of the increasing competition from BIM manufacturers. Rest assured, we are strategically positioned to navigate these changes and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

In our Carbon segment’s distillation business, 2024 saw continued raw material disruption from the war in Europe coupled with drastic curtailments in a weak global steel industry. This greatly reduced the availability of coal tar to our carbon distillation facilities. Native European supply has been reduced and while our flexible logistics infrastructure has set up to pull in raw materials from longer distances, we are forced to do so at a currently higher cost. Further in our Carbon segment’s distillation business, product prices increased modestly during the quarter, working to keep pace with the increase in coal tar raw material prices. Volumes decreased by 6% versus the third quarter in line with expectations.

Entering the first quarter of twenty twenty five, we expect modestly higher volumes in our carbon distillation business, attributed to some of the expected volume demand increase from European spenders. Meanwhile, demand meanwhile, prices for the first quarter are expected to rollover for both coal tarb raw material and finished coal tarpage. Elsewhere in our carbon segment, our other carbon products volumes remained at reasonably strong levels in the fourth quarter, although prices declined compared to the previous quarter. Shifting now to our Advanced Materials segment, we are pleased that EBITDA has remained positive during the quarter. And although the fourth quarter is traditionally weaker due to seasonality, the segment finished with a strong performance for the year.

After a promising first half of twenty twenty four, the positive trend held up in the second half in both pricing and volumes and our Advanced Materials segment continues to perform well into 2025. Upon examining the subcategories within this segment, the quarterly volumes for our engineered products declined as anticipated. This decrease can be attributed to seasonality factors and reduced volumes of some high value materials, including our premium carburests. However, the chemical intermediates subcategory compensated for this decline with the robust sales, particularly for our VTS materials. In contrast, the resins and downstream materials subcategory experienced lower volumes despite strong demand for our HSCR presence in the fourth quarter.

This decline was due to a combination of reduced availability of commodities and planned maintenance activities at our HSCR unit. Throughout the year in Europe, energy prices remained manageable with the exception of the fourth quarter when they rose due to seasonality cold weather and supply cuts and fewer supply cuts in the gas. Despite the stability in energy costs, the industrial sector continues to await definitive signs of demand resurgence. The market is still in a state of anticipation hoping for stronger indications of recovery and growth. We had anticipated the usual seasonal decline in advanced materials volumes during the fourth quarter.

However, we are correct to remain confident that the resilience of our non seasonal products would sustain profitability for our Advanced Materials segment through the year end. As we look at 2025, the economies in Europe and The U. S. Appear to be improving overall with some positive developments supporting industrial production. This development should be positive for us in our major markets and there is that these efforts will be successful both in Ukraine and Middle East.

Regarding the proposed strategies by The United States on imports from various countries, including Canada and Europe, Our management team is committed to a thorough analysis once the tariffs are officially initiated and guidelines are published. We are closely monitoring the situation and will keep our investors informed as more information becomes available. Our priority remains to ensure that we continue to operate efficiently and maintain our competitive edge in the market. In regard to the cement segment, the cement industry in India faced numerous challenges in 2024, including moderate capacity utilization, lower sales and a contraction of margins, all of which impacted both the top line and the bottom line of our cement segment. In 2024, growth of the cement industry in India decelerated to 4.5% to 5.5% on a high base, falling three consecutive years of strong growth.

Construction activity slowed during the second and third quarters due to several factors including a prolonged heat wave, labor shortages during the general elections period and seasonal weaknesses during months. This combination of factors led to a slowdown in demand, continued capacity additions and industry consolidation resulting in declining realizations. Despite these challenges, the industry anticipates an 8% growth in sales by 2025. This optimistic outlook is driven by several factors increased rural consumption aided by improved firm cash flows sustained healthy demand for urban housing expected increases in government spending on infrastructure projects. In the South Indian cement industry where we operate, we are anticipating positive growth in 2025.

This growth is expected to be driven by strong demand from various infrastructure projects, particularly with the increased emphasis on constructing the new capital, Ambrawati in Andhra Pradesh State as well as numerous irrigation projects. Although the cement industry encountered significant challenges in 2024, the outlook for our cement segment in 2025 strongs. The expected growth is projected to be fueled by both rural and urban demand alongside government led infrastructure initiatives. This combination of factors positions our cement segment for a better year ahead. Now, I will hand over the presentation to Gerry Sweeney, who will further update provide updates on the industry and our business on Slide 4.

Gerry?

Gerard Srinivas Rao, President, RAIN Carbon, Inc.: Thank you, Jaggan. Hello, everyone. It’s a pleasure to speak with you again. The outlook for the global aluminum industry remains positive with aluminum prices stabilizing around USD2600 per metric ton on the LME. This stability is supported by relatively low natural gas prices and the expectation of increased demand amid persistently low LME inventories.

In 2024, global primary aluminum production reached a new record high, increasing by 3% year over year. Despite this increase in production, LME inventories remained relatively low. The production increases in 2024 were primarily driven by the additions in the Unan province in China, although these increases are expected to taper off. Looking ahead, smelting expansions in India and Indonesia are set to lead the way for 2025 as far as aluminum startups. Additionally, several new smelter projects are scheduled to come online in 2026 in various regions outside of China.

Overall, the industry is poised for growth, buoyed by favorable pricing, low natural gas costs and anticipated demand resurgence. Moving to Slide five, which outlines key commodity price trends and our business performance during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. We observed that prices remained relatively stable with the exception of benzene. While benzene prices experienced a reduction, they’re still at a reasonably high level, so the decrease is not particularly alarming at this time. Additionally, it’s important to note that natural gas prices in Europe reached an eighteen month high during the fourth quarter, largely due to the winter season and the curtailment of certain gas supplies to Europe during the year.

This has had a significant impact on the overall energy market in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and inventories in Europe. Moving to Slide six, we focus on the revenue distribution by end industry. You’ll see that the aluminum sector accounted for approximately 42% of our total consolidated revenues in 2024. We believe this to be volume related and anticipate a rebound to the usual range of 44% by the end of twenty twenty five. Our remaining revenue streams are diversified across various industries, including the important construction and carbon black sectors.

On Slide seven, our Carbon segment experienced an overall 5% decrease in volumes, driven by CPC, while prices declined for other carbon products quarter over quarter. In the CPC business, sales volumes were down by 9% versus the third quarter due to the timing mainly of shipments. CPC prices remained stable and the same held true for GPC raw material prices also. On the distillation side of our Carbon segment, CTP sales volumes were up by 6% compared to the third quarter and CTP prices largely rolled over from the third quarter. Elsewhere in our Carbon segment, other carbon products volumes declined by 2% and prices declined by 12% compared to the previous quarter, which was in line with changes to fuel oil quotations.

As mentioned earlier, we are pleased that our Advanced Materials segment’s EBITDA performed well and contributed positively despite seasonality and increased natural gas prices over the third quarter. In the Advanced Materials segment’s Engineered Products subcategory, volumes of petrores have increased, but our volumes for asphalt sealers and other pitch oils were significantly down compared to the third quarter due to seasonality. Volumes in the chemical intermediates subcategory were up 27% due to higher throughput and price changes driven by benzene quotations. Moving on to the resins and downstream material subcategory, volumes were decreased due to reduced availability of raw material and weaker demand from the coating industry. But prices were up compared to the previous quarter, driven by continued supply chain issues from Asian markets to Europe.

I’ll now hand the presentation over to Srinivas, who will discuss Rhein’s consolidated financial performance. Sreedevis, the floor is yours.

T. Srinivas Rao, Chief Financial Officer, RAIN Industries Limited: Thank you, Jerry, and hello, everyone. Staying on Slide seven, during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, Rhein reported a consolidated net revenue of INR 36,490,000,000.00, marking a reduction of INR 4,300,000,000.0 from INR 40,790,000,000.00 during the same period in 2023. The reduction was primarily due to revenue decreases of INR 3,200,000,000.0 in our Carbon segment and INR 1,620,000,000.00 in our Cement segment, offset by increase of INR 520,000,000.00 in our Advanced Materials segment. Rains consolidated adjusted EBITDA for fourth quarter increased by INR 1,120,000,000.00 compared to the previous year. This was attributed to an increase of INR 880,000,000.00 in the Carbon segment and INR 900,000,000.0 in the Advanced Materials segment offset by a decrease of INR 660,000,000.00 in the Cement segment.

Moving to slide eight, we can see that for the fourth quarter ending on 12/31/2024, our Carbon segment reported revenue of Rs. 26,130,000,000.00 which was a decrease from INR 29,330,000.00 during the same period in the previous year. During this quarter, the increase in volumes in our Carbon segment was primarily driven by higher CPC volumes due to higher capacity utilization from Indian CPC plants after the relief granted by Honorable Commission for Air Quality Management during February 2024 and due to the gradual implementation of the same. During the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, the average blended realization decreased by 16% on account of lower market quotations across all regions. There was an appreciation of the euro against Indian rupee by 0.6% and an appreciation of the U.

S. Dollar against the Indian rupee by 1.4%. Overall, due to the previous mentioned reasons, revenue from the Carbon segment decreased by 10.9 in fourth quarter of twenty twenty four as compared to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. However, the adjusted EBITDA for the Carbon segment increased by INR $883,000,000 compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. This was driven primarily by increased volumes, cost optimization measures implemented by the Company and the appreciation of both U.

S. Dollar and euro against the Indian rupee, which was partially offset by a decrease in realizations. Moving to the slide nine, we can see that Advanced Materials segment’s performance. During the quarter ending 12/31/2024, our Advanced Materials segment ended revenues totaling INR 7,720,000,000.00, which was an increase from INR 7,200,000,000.0 during the same period in the previous year. During this quarter, the increase in volumes was primarily driven by higher throughput in our chemical intermediates sub segment.

During the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, average blended realizations decreased by 3.6% due to a fall in commodity prices offset by an appreciation of the euro against the Indian rupee by about 0.6%. Due to the previously mentioned reasons, revenue from the Advanced Materials segment increased by 7.3% during the February as compared to the February. Adjusted EBITDA in, Advanced Materials segment increased by 897,000,000 rupees compared to the February due to increased volumes and appreciation of the euro against the Indian rupee, partially offset by fall in commodity prices. Moving to slide number 10, we can look at our segment performance, which experienced a 38.1% decline in revenue in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four as compared to the same period in 2023, attributable to a 12.4% foreign realizations and a 29.4% reduction in volumes due to consolidation of markets. The adjusted EBITDA for our cement segment saw a downturn of $657,000,000 rupees, due to decreased realizations coupled with decreased volumes and a marginal increase in operating cost.

Moving to next slide on debt, slide number 11. The fourth quarter concluded with a gross debt of US918 million dollars which includes working capital debt of US96 million dollars Our net debt stood at US699 million dollars and with an LTM EBITDA of US179 million dollars Our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 3.9x. More the next few quarters, as performance improves and debt gets repaid, we anticipate the leverage ratio to gradually approach 3x. During the current year, our euro denominated term loan saw a reduction by US57 million dollars driven by US35 million dollars in repayments coupled with US22 million dollars in foreign exchange impact due to the appreciation of US dollar against euro. In terms of liquidity, we closed the quarter with US478 million dollars comprised of US219 million dollars cash balances and US209 million dollars available in undrawn credit facilities.

With the existing cash and cash equivalents and with undrawn working capital loans, the company is well placed both to repay its U. S. Dollar denominated secured notes of $44,000,000 which is due in April 2025 and fund cash requirements in median term. The May the major long term debt repayments are scheduled to start in October 2028. The group had spent approximately US78 million dollars for maintenance CapEx and planned turnarounds during the twenty twenty four aircrafts all locations.

I will now pass over the presentation to Mr. Jagan for his concluding

Jagann Reddy Laud, Managing Director, RAIN Industries Limited: remarks. Thank you, Shridhar. The year 2024 has undeniably presented its challenges with market movements oscillating unpredictably as they record from the highs of 2022 and early twenty twenty three. Amidst the turbulence, we have witnessed a significant breakthrough in India through the relief granted by CAQM on import restrictions up to six months. This change has invigorated our enthusiasm as we now have the opportunity to operate our Indian carbon calcination facilities at capacity and seamlessly integrate our global blend strategy.

While these positive developments are encouraging, we must remain vigilant as few market indicators continue to raise concerns. Our steadfast commitment is to scrutinize every expenditure ensuring it is both necessary and in the best interest of the company. We will persist in rigorously evaluating all our costs, including raw material expenses to procure optimal products and manufacture in locations that maximize profitability. This relentless pursuit of efficiency and cost management underscores our team’s dedication. We are resolute in our efforts to navigate these uncertain times and remain committed to achieving sustainable growth and success.

Looking ahead, the future is promising. Noteworthy are the recent announcement of our new research and development laboratory and demonstration plan for energy storage materials and battery anode materials in Canada along with the government grants in Canada and Germany and joint development agreements. These initiatives position RAIN as a significant player in the EV and other battery markets. Already an established supplier to the Chinese battery market, we bring years of experience in serving major manufacturers. The demonstration plant will solidify RAIN’s reputation for excellence in battery technology, allowing us to highlight our products’ current relevance while exploring new applications and supply chain opportunities.

We are excited about the future and confident in our strategies to navigate the complexities ahead. The dedication and hard work of our teams are paving the way for continued success and growth. Together, we will seize the opportunities that lie ahead and ensure prosperity in the evolving market landscape. We appreciate your ongoing support for Vein Industries Limited and eagerly anticipate sharing further updates in the upcoming quarterly presentation. Thank you very much.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.