Earnings call transcript: SABIC Q3 2025 shows revenue decline and stock drop

Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) reported its Q3 2025 financial results, revealing a 3% sequential revenue decline to $9.2 billion. Despite this, adjusted net income rose by 45% quarter-on-quarter. The market reacted negatively, with SABIC’s stock price falling by 1.84% to $59.8.

Key Takeaways

• SABIC’s Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 3% from the previous quarter.
• Adjusted net income increased by 45% quarter-on-quarter.
• Stock price dropped by 1.84% following the earnings release.
• The company introduced over 90 new products and solutions.
• SABIC’s free cash flow surged by 81% year-on-year.

Company Performance

SABIC’s performance in Q3 2025 was mixed. While revenue fell by 3% from the previous quarter, the company managed to increase its adjusted net income by 45%. This improvement in profitability was attributed to cost management and operational efficiencies. The company’s cash flow from operations also showed strength, rising by 8% year-on-year.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $9.2 billion, a 3% decrease from the previous quarter.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $1.3 billion, a 4% decline.
• EBITDA Margin: 14.5%.
• Adjusted Net Income: 45% increase quarter-on-quarter.
• Cash Flow from Operations: $2.7 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase.
• Free Cash Flow: $1.03 billion, an 81% year-on-year increase.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, SABIC’s stock price fell by 1.84% to $59.8. This decline reflects investor concerns about the company’s revenue decrease and the broader challenges facing the petrochemical market. The stock is currently trading closer to its 52-week low of $53, indicating cautious market sentiment.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, SABIC expects global GDP growth of 2.7% and plans capital investments of $3-3.5 billion in 2025. The company remains focused on its transformation target of $3 billion by 2030, split between cost reduction and value creation. The SABIC Fujian project is 87% complete and scheduled for a startup in the second half of 2026.

Executive Commentary

CEO Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh emphasized the company’s efforts to leverage advanced technology to lower carbon emissions. CFO Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky highlighted the continued momentum of SABIC’s transformation journey. Al-Fageeh also noted the company’s capability to optimize feedstock to generate value.

Risks and Challenges

• Persistent global overcapacity in the petrochemical market could pressure prices.
• Economic uncertainty may affect demand across end-product sectors.
• Supply chain disruptions could impact production and delivery schedules.
• Regulatory changes related to environmental standards could increase costs.
• Currency fluctuations may affect profitability in international markets.

Q&A

During the Q&A session, analysts inquired about potential ethane availability from Jafura, portfolio optimization strategies, and market overcapacity challenges. Discussions also covered asset life and maintenance strategies, reflecting investor interest in SABIC’s long-term operational plans.

Full transcript - Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) Q3 2025:

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Welcome to SABIC’s Q3 2025 earnings call. This is Sara Alzamami, acting as a moderator. Please note that the call is being recorded. A transcript of the recording, together with supplementary materials, will be published on the Investor Relations webpage on SABIC’s website. Today’s earnings call will feature SABIC CEO Engr. Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, its CFO Mr. Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, and its IRO Mr. Naif Al-Ayed. Naif will now take us through an outline of today’s event.

Naif Al-Ayed, Investor Relations Officer (IRO), SABIC: Thank you, Sarah, and thanks to those of you who are joining the SABIC Q3 2025 earnings call. Let me begin by pointing out that forward-looking statements will be made in this call. These statements are based on assumptions filled with risk and uncertainty, so they are not a guarantee of SABIC future performance. Actual outcomes may differ materially from what the statements imply. For the details about our forward-looking statements, please refer to the disclaimer in the presentation and in our financial reports, both of which are available at sabic.com. With the disclaimer out of the way, the earnings call will start with a presentation by our CEO. He will briefly describe the market context that influenced our industry’s performance in the third quarter of 2025. This will be followed by a rundown of some key points with respect to SABIC Q3 2025 performance and priorities.

Thereafter, the CEO will outline SABIC’s current growth project milestones before revealing the expected end-industry market movements. The CFO will then take over the call to walk you through SABIC’s aggregate financial performance, focusing on the third quarter of 2025. Afterwards, our CEO will attempt to provide a brief outlook for the rest of the year. We will end the call with an open line Q&A session. I ask that participants limit the topic of their questions to SABIC’s corporate performance and avoid referring to listed affiliates. Now, please join me in welcoming SABIC CEO Engr. Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh to the call.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: Thank you, Naif, and thanks to all of you joining today’s earnings call. Let us begin with a brief overview of the macroeconomic and industry landscapes. The third quarter of this year showed the global economy growth rate at a modest rate of 2.6%. The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose slightly above 50, reflecting some improvement in business conditions as monetary policies in major economies began to ease and production output in China and in the Eurozone increased slightly. However, while some plant rationalization is being observed, resistance over capacity continues to pressure market dynamics. I would like to highlight now and talk about some achievements that reflect the strength of SABIC’s commitment to meet our priorities: operational excellence, selective growth, transformation, and value creation. First, health and safety: the total recordable incident rate for Q3 is 0.07, an improvement of 22% compared with the same period last year.

This once again underscores SABIC’s top priority, which is a part of operational excellence. Turning to selective growth, I’m pleased to say that the execution of our key projects, Petrochemia’s MTBE expansion in Jubail and the SABIC Fujian Greenfield Petrochemical Complex in China, remains on track. Further details will follow in the next slides. In our transformation journey, we continue to deliver tangible results. During the quarter, we realized $300 million in value. This reflects the extent to which we are driving efficiency, competitiveness, and cost optimization across the organization. We remain confident in achieving our overall transformation target of $3 billion by the year 2030. Additionally, we have launched a major milestone in SABIC’s digital transformation journey: the successful go-live of the STAR program on the SABIC S-400 platform. This program is one of the largest and fastest technology transformation projects globally, establishing our unified digital operations platform.

This achievement represents a pivotal step in enabling a range of digital initiatives aimed at enhancing productivity, improving resource management, and reducing operating costs. It will also support stronger financial performance going forward. The STAR journey reflects SABIC’s commitment to build and advance high-performance digital ecosystems. It goes beyond system upgrades, representing seamless integration between business and digital enablement under a shared vision to strengthen SABIC’s competitive capabilities. From the value creation point of view, there are similar highlights this quarter. To begin with, we had more than 90 new products and solutions introductions, evidence of the strength of the relationship we have with our customers. I’m also pleased to share that we have expanded our low-carbon portfolio with the certification of new products like MEG, MTBE, and MMA, plus ammonia. Additionally, we achieved our first successful scale of certified low-carbon methanol.

These mark important milestones in our value creation journey. As a leader in the petrochemical industry, SABIC continues to leverage advanced technology to lower carbon emissions across its production processes, offering our customers more sustainable solutions that support global and regional energy transition goals. Our innovation for electric vehicles continues to gain international recognition. We won. A 2025 R&D 100 award for having developed the world’s first glass fiber reinforced flame retardant polypropylene for the large EV battery packs. This innovation opens market opportunities for SABIC in the fast-growing EV segment and reinforces our position as a material technology leader. Finally, I’m happy to highlight how we continue to empower industrial entrepreneurship and drive a local content agenda for sustainable economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Recently, SABIC 2024 Local Content Certified was issued with a score of 56.4%, a year-on-year increase of 17%.

Comparing with the previous year, nearly 57% of SABIC’s spending now directly benefits the Saudi economy. Let me now go back to the two selective growth projects I mentioned earlier. SABIC successfully completed the MTBE project, replacing the existing Petrochemia isobutane dehydrogenation unit with a new facility capable of producing 1 million tons of MTBE annually. Mechanical completion was finalized in August 2025, followed by a successful start-up in October, supporting our expansion to enhance especially fuel additives capacity and improve downstream integration. Progress on the $6.4 billion SABIC-Fujian project continues to track in line with the plan, with about 87% completion achieved across engineering, procurement, and construction activities. The project maintains exceptional safety records with 34 million incident-free man-hours and remains on a schedule for a start-up in the second half of the year 2026, reinforcing our disciplined execution and commitment to long-term growth in a strategic market.

Aligned with our strategic roadmap, both projects will play a key role in strengthening our growth platform and long-term value creation. Moving to the next slide, which is talk about the demand that has been stable for our end product sectors. We expect demand to remain stable across the board next quarter as well. Future momentum will depend on accommodative monetary policy, greater geopolitical stability, and a broad-based global economic recovery. With that, I will now hand the floor over to the SABIC CFO, Mr. Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky. He will review the company’s financial results and provide additional commentary on our business segment’s performance. Salah.

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: Thank you, Abdulrahman, and warm welcome to everyone joining the call today. Let me start with an overview of our financial performance this quarter. Beginning with revenue, SABIC continued to leverage its global footprint in the third quarter of 2025. Generating $9.2 billion, down 3% from the previous quarter, primarily due to the absence of approximately $230 million in licensing and engineering income recognized in Q2. Consistent with our approach, last quarter, we continued to assess our performance on an adjusted basis, excluding one-off, non-operational anomalies that can distort operational business performance. On this adjusted basis, we delivered an EBITDA of $1.3 billion, a 4% decline versus last quarter’s on an adjusted basis, which will be discussed further on the next slide. SABIC’s resilient EBITDA margin of 14.5% underscores our sustained cost discipline and operational efficiency during market headwinds, reinforcing our position among the top tier of the global petrochemical industry.

Moving to adjusted net income, it increased 45% quarter on quarter, reflecting our strong commitment to value creation and cost reduction program, or transformation. In addition to fair valuation of equity, derivatives, and instruments associated with several joint ventures and associates, year-to-date, SABIC’s adjusted net income totaled $296 million, lower than last year, primarily due to a substantially lower average selling price, partially offset by higher sales volume and benefits from our transformation initiative and program. Cash flow from operations reached $2.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025, up 8% year-on-year, supported by disciplined working capital management and improved cash conversion cycle.

In addition, year-to-date, free cash flow totaled $1 billion, or $1.03 billion, an 81% increase versus last year’s same period, driven by continued prudent capital expenditure management, resulting in a $256 million reduction in CapEx spending year-to-date. It is also important to highlight that the company secured approximately $1.8 billion during the year as a result of our portfolio optimization program. Finally, our net cash position continued to reflect SABIC’s financial strength and resilience. To dig deeper into our EBITDA performance, quarter over quarter, excluding the non-frequent licensing gains recorded last quarter, Q3 EBITDA was actually up by 10% compared to the previous quarter. This improvement reflects our diversified product portfolio and flexible asset base, enabling us to capture the benefit of lower liquid feedstock prices and higher prices of selected products such as urea. Our transformation journey continued to deliver strong momentum, reflected in consistent quarterly progress.

By leveraging global presence, we are optimizing operations, reducing costs, and demonstrating disciplined agility and resilience during ongoing market headwinds. With that, let me take you through the progress we have made across our key transformation program. With regard to the transformation program announced last quarter, targeting a recurring annual EBITDA impact of $3 billion by 2030, which is split between $1.4 billion in cost reduction and $1.6 billion in value creation. I’d like to take a moment to highlight our progress to date. Building on the foundation established earlier this year, we have realized $300 million of value under the program year-to-date, or at the end of quarter three this year. This includes EBITDA-related improvement driven by cost optimization, procurement, and manufacturing efficiency.

These savings are clearly reflected across our P&L, with an 8%, or $153 million, reduction in general and administrative costs year-to-date, compared with the same period last year. On non-recurring items, we have reduced our CapEx spending by $256 million, as noted earlier. Overall, our progress highlights SABIC’s disciplined execution, resilience, and focus on delivering the $3 billion transformation targeted by 2030, and we will update you on a regular basis. Turning to the petrochemical segment. Market conditions remained challenging during the quarter. We continue to see further pressure on prices driven by persistent global overcapacity. During this quarter, higher polymer sales volume was offset by lower chemical sales, resulting in a flat sales volume for petrochemical quarter over quarter. The reduction in EBITDA this quarter, compared with the prior quarter, is mainly attributed to the absence of licensing income that benefited the prior quarter.

Excluding this effect, underlying operational performance improved by 9%, mainly driven by achieving higher margins driven by reduction in liquid feed stock. In the agriculture segment, performance this quarter remained solid, supported by higher prices and stronger demand in India, leading to an increase of 13% in average selling price. Despite a decline in overall sales volume, SABIC leveraged its global footprint to capture this regional demand, resulting in a 14% increase in EBITDA quarter over quarter. Total sales volume for the quarter reached approximately 1.8 million metric tons, reflecting our strong market position and agility in responding to shifting regional supply-demand dynamics. As I conclude, I want to highlight our consistent discipline and strategic focus on driving long-term value for shareholders. We have stayed resilient through a challenging market, maintaining a strong balance sheet and a prudent financial framework that gives us flexibility to navigate a different market cycle.

Improving capital efficiency remains one of our top priorities. We are focusing on reducing costs, enhancing cash generation, and driving stronger returns on every dollar we invest. At the same time, we are moving forward with our transformation and portfolio optimization program, ensuring SABIC remains competitive, agile, and well-positioned for the future. We also remain fully committed to delivering value to our shareholders through competitive dividends and disciplined capital allocation, reflecting our confidence in SABIC’s strength and outlook. Finally, we continue to unlock capital from non-performing assets and non-core assets that strategically do not fit our competitive advantage. This concludes the financial highlights. I now hand back to Abdulrahman to walk you through our year-ahead guidance. Abdulrahman.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: Thank you, Salah. Our guidance for the year ahead is based on slow economic growth, as reflected in the revised expected global GDP growth rate of 2.7%. In line with our commitment to capital discipline and selective growth, our 2025 capital investment is expected to be between $3 billion and $3.5 billion. This concludes the presentation portion of today’s call. We can now kick off the Q&A session.

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Thank you, Engineer Al-Fageeh. To ask a question, please use the raise hand feature on your screen and wait for your line to be open. Make sure to click the lower hand button once the question has been asked. You can also share your questions in writing. Please keep your questions no more than two or three per person to allow for enough time for everyone. First question is from Siri Harshababu from HSBC. Siri Harsha, please come close to the mic and ask your question.

Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my question. I was just wondering on growth if you had a working framework for potential additional ethane availability out of Jafura and how that might impact volumes at SABIC. Have you done any studies on how much you can debottleneck existing assets? Do you have a sense of timelines, CapEx? How are you thinking about Jafura given that, I guess, the ethane volumes will start relatively soon? Also, a follow-up question. Would you have a sense of FID timelines around blue ammonia projects that perhaps some of your subsidiaries are working on? Thank you for taking my questions.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: Thank you very much. I mean, actually, our position here in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, since SABIC has been started almost 49 years back, with very strong capability and taking advantage of the hydrocarbon resources here in the kingdom and adding value for that hydrocarbon resources. We build with that, of course, our technology, our human resources capability, as well as, I mean, the additional value for our stakeholders. We can still have that advantage of the gas in the kingdom competitively. Of course, this all depends on how the stakeholder of this is going to allocate that gas. I can assure you that in the company, I think we have the capability for optimizing our feed stock to the best that is going to generate value for our stakeholders. The second part of your question, if I heard it correctly, it was about the FID in the ammonia?

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: In the ammonia.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: In the ammonia. Yeah, I would like to refer this question to the SABIC Agri-Nutrients since it is a company that’s listed in the Tadawul market.

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Thank you, Siri Harsha. Next question is from Sashank Lanka from Bank of America. Sashank, please come close to the mic and ask your question.

Yes, thank you very much for the presentation. I have two questions, if that’s fine. The first one is related to the $300 million that you spoke about. Through your cost-saving program and value creation. Would you be able to talk about how much of this is coming from restructuring your European business? That’s the first question. The second question is just on the chemicals market and wanted your views there. I mean, clearly, prices have weakened over the course of the year. People were expecting a recovery at some point, but it seems it is delayed. In your view, what would drive a recovery from here given this prolonged down cycle that we’re in? Thank you.

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: Okay, maybe let me start. I’ll take the first part of the question, and maybe Abdulrahman can take the second one. The portfolio optimization had actually started last year, and it is very strategic, and it has a holistic approach to review underperforming assets and non-core assets that we don’t have a competitive advantage in. All options are being reviewed to improve the group financial performance, including closures, such. The one that we did in Helin, Olufim 3, and recently the Teesside Cracker Unit. The program remains a strategic priority for the company, and we are progressing very well. Of course, any development on that front, we will be updated. Now, the portfolio optimization is very important. It’s not only looking into Europe; it’s looking into all our investments globally.

And that transformation also is another program that we are focusing on and consider the strategic priority for us is looking into all assets within SABIC.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: Maybe Abdulrahman will get it.

Yeah, I’ll take the second one. Thank you for the question. Actually, for the last 10 years, as you may have seen and observed in the market, there is a lot of overcapacities that have been a challenge for the petrochemical industry, which has come actually from two parts of the world. Started with shale gas from the US and also China recently, that this overcapacity that has been coming to the market without any rationalization, if I could say, or consolidation for other businesses. We have seen some announcements, and I think that’s clearly mentioned in China and in Korea for some rationalization for some of the plants. Hopefully, when this is going to come, I don’t know what is going to be the impact, but at least there is something that is being considered for some rationalizations. I think you asked also about the expectation of the recovery.

I think the recovery of the economic is subject to the expansion in economic activities, the rationalization that I mentioned earlier for these overcapacities to be balanced, and also many other factors that can take place for that recovery.

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Thank you, Sashank. Next question is from Alex Comer from JPMorgan. Alex, please come close to the mic and ask your question.

Can you hear me?

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: Yes, Alex, we can hear you.

Yeah, a couple of questions for me. One of your regional peers changed the asset life on some of its plants or announced they did in its results, yeah? They increased the asset life. They said they do a regular check of asset life. I’m just wondering whether you do that and whether you’ve had any thoughts of looking at the asset life of KN, for instance, because extending that would obviously improve the profitability and remove this issue of potentially having to recapitalization. I just wondered if you’d looked at that. That’s my first question. The second question is, in terms of the economic impact of the MTBE plant, how much EBITDA do you expect to generate from that in 2026? Maybe a similar question when the Fujian plant starts up. How much EBITDA, if any, do you expect to generate from that? Thank you.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, CEO, SABIC: I may answer you. The two second parts that you have asked. We’ll come back to the asset life. Our focus, frankly speaking, right now for the new assets that we are building or starting up, whether it’s the MTBE plant, Amelian Chan in Petrochemia, or the SABIC Fujian in China, our focus for that is to continue focus on the starting up successfully of this and making sure that we bring those plants safe and on spec as per the schedule and within the budget that has been allocated for this. Yes, we are expecting that the SABIC Fujian is going to come in the second half of 2026, but I can assure you that output of that plant, we have a very solid customer base in China.

With a growth that they are depending on the SABIC technologies because we have technologies that have been licensed to that project that is going to bring the value for our customers in that region.

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: Okay, let me attempt to answer a question on the asset life. All our asset life is actually being reviewed every quarter as part of our financial reporting and financial development. We reviewed it very carefully. Many elements are considered in deciding the life cycle of the assets, including the capital that we spend in maintaining these assets. We spend in the company a good capital amount to ensure the run and maintain capital to ensure that the assets are actually very reliable and preserve safety and keep the safety standard of SABIC. It is being reviewed every quarter. We have not seen any major changes on any of our life cycles or life of our assets.

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Thank you, Alex. Next question is from Jonathan Chung from Morgan Stanley. Jonathan, please come close to the mic and ask your question.

Salah Mohammed Al-Hareky, CFO, SABIC: Jonathan, can you hear us? Can you ask your question, please? Jonathan, are you still on the line? Okay, so if you have a question.

Jonathan, we cannot hear you, Jonathan. Maybe if you want to send your question to the IR team, we’ll be more than happy to answer them.

Sara Alzamami, Moderator, SABIC: Thank you all for the thoughtful questions. The investor relations team is available for vending inquiries and any follow-up from today’s call. The contact information is displayed on the screen. The earnings call for the third quarter of 2025 has now concluded. Thank you again for attending. You may now disconnect.

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