Earnings call transcript: Saudi Aramco Q3 2025 posts 14% income rise

Saudi Aramco reported a robust financial performance for Q3 2025, with adjusted net income reaching $28 billion, marking a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter. The company’s free cash flow also saw a significant rise, up 55% to $23.6 billion. Despite these strong results, the stock price showed a modest increase of 0.7%, closing at $25.58. The company’s performance was driven by strategic investments and a focus on technology and innovation. According to InvestingPro data, Saudi Aramco currently trades below its Fair Value, suggesting potential upside for investors who see value in the oil giant’s strong cash flow generation.

Key Takeaways

• Adjusted net income rose by 14% quarter-over-quarter to $28 billion.
• Free cash flow increased by 55% to $23.6 billion.
• Capital investments for Q3 totaled $12.9 billion.
• Stock price increased by 0.7% following the earnings release.
• Gas production capacity target increased by 80% by 2030.

Company Performance

Saudi Aramco’s Q3 2025 performance underscored its strategic focus on growth and innovation. With a 14% increase in adjusted net income and a substantial rise in free cash flow, the company demonstrated resilience amidst global economic uncertainties. The company’s commitment to expanding its gas production capacity and investing in technology has positioned it favorably against its peers.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Details not provided
• Earnings per share: Not disclosed
• Adjusted net income: $28 billion, up 14% QoQ
• Free cash flow: $23.6 billion, up 55% QoQ
• Capital investments: $12.9 billion in Q3

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Saudi Aramco’s stock experienced a modest increase of 0.7%, closing at $25.58. This movement is within the stock’s 52-week range of $23.04 to $29. The market’s response reflects cautious optimism, as investors weigh the company’s strong financial results against broader market conditions.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Saudi Aramco has revised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to a range of $52-$55 billion. The company aims to boost its gas production capacity by 80% by 2030, with the first phase of the Jafurah gas project commencing in Q4 2025. These initiatives are expected to significantly enhance the company’s cash flow and operational efficiency.

Executive Commentary

CEO Amin Nasser highlighted the company’s strategic focus, stating, "We are delivering on our advantaged growth programs, which will drive long-term value creation for our shareholders." He also emphasized the company’s commitment to maximizing cash flow and leveraging its technological capabilities to maintain a competitive edge.

Risks and Challenges

• Volatility in global oil prices could impact revenue.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may pose operational risks.
• Regulatory changes in environmental policies could affect production strategies.
• Supply chain disruptions could hinder project timelines.
• Competition from renewable energy sources may challenge market share.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company’s increased gas capacity and its implications for future growth. Executives assured that technological advancements and operational improvements are key drivers behind this expansion. Questions also focused on the Jafurah project’s contributions to the petrochemical industry and the company’s confidence in its growth prospects, particularly in the gas sector.

Full transcript - Saudi Aramco (2222) Q3 2025:

Operator: Welcome to the Saudi Arabian Oil Company’s third quarter 2025 results call. We will be holding a question-and-answer session following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad at any time. I shall now hand over to Mr. Peter Hutton to begin.

Peter Hutton, Head of Investor Relations, Aramco: Hello and welcome to this audio broadcast discussing Saudi Arabian Oil Company’s third quarter 2025 results. I’m Peter Hutton, Head of Investor Relations at Aramco, and I’m pleased to be joined today by Amin Nasser, President and CEO, and Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO. Our broadcast today will include a short presentation and question-and-answer session, and we expect the call to last up to an hour. Please refer to the cautionary statement on forward-looking information, our regulatory filings, and our website for more details. With that, I will now hand over the call to Amin.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thank you, Peter, and welcome everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we have announced very strong results for the third quarter, and we are also significantly increasing our guidance for longer-term growth. This includes raising our sales gas production capacity growth target by 2030 to around 80% from 60% over 2021 production levels. Increasing the incremental operating cash flow outlook from our gas program to $12 billion-$15 billion in 2030 from 2024 levels, which is around $3 billion-$5 billion growth from previous guidance. Building on our clear advantages and scale in technology and digitalization to take a next-level position in GenAI while meeting the higher energy demand from data centers with our higher gas supply availability. Maintaining our strong focus on reliability and financial strength, which continues to differentiate Aramco and position us for longer-term success.

In the third quarter, Aramco delivered strong momentum in operating results and financial performance. Our adjusted net income of $28 billion rose 14% from the previous quarter and was up year-on-year, driven largely by the increase in crude production. Total liquid production at the end of the third quarter was around 1 million barrels per day higher than the start of the second quarter, a reminder of the scale and flexibility of our assets and the upside to earnings. Our free cash flow of $23.6 billion in the third quarter is up 55% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year. In our gas business, there is strong momentum in both demand and supply, which has led us to revise up our sales gas production capacity growth target to around 80% by 2030.

This is the second upward revision on our gas growth target, originally from 50% growth compared with 2021 levels to over 60%, and now to around 80%. With this, we now expect the higher gas growth to generate $12 billion-$15 billion in incremental operating cash flow in 2030, a significant increase from our previous target. Our results demonstrate our strategic approach to value-focused investment and cash flow maximization. We are delivering on our advantaged growth programs, which will drive long-term value creation for our shareholders. Aramco today is a larger gas producer than any of the major IOCs, serving a market which is the sixth largest in the world and a captive market for Aramco, which is growing rapidly. That growth had underpinned our earlier guidance to increase 2030 sales gas production capacity by more than 60%.

As we develop our plans, we see demand growth increasing more than previously forecasted, including higher demand from additional uses such as AI data centers. We are also delivering material improvement and efficiencies in operating potential across the gas portfolio from reserve delineation, enhanced drilling techniques, and the application of new technologies. The combination of these factors together drives the increase in our new guidance to grow production capacity by around 80% by 2030, up from 60% from the same plans and projects. That’s about a 33% increase in gas growth, which we expect to be especially attractive to investors. With this increase in gas and production of more high-value associated liquids, we expect the scale of our gas program by 2030 will be around 6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This will be larger than any IOC’s total hydrocarbon production in 2024, let alone gas.

Aramco has been at the forefront of world-class technology in the energy sector for decades. Our unique scale, exclusive operating position, and financial strength enable us to deploy technology at a level unmatched by any other energy company. We are utilizing digitalization and now AI more extensively. We process over 10 billion data points daily, drawn from 90 years of exclusive operational data, generating insight and decision-making capabilities. Our investment in technology and computing power, such as the MAM-7, one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, and in the industry’s first industrial large language AI model, are driving innovation and improvement. Through deep learning and continuous evolution, AI is already a critical driver in our focus and commitment to technology and R&D and is generating tangible returns. In 2023 and 2024, we achieved a combined $6 billion of technology realized value, which has been independently verified.

Around half of the $4 billion realized in 2024 was driven by AI solutions. Our recent announcement to invest in Humane represents a transformational shift that builds on our significant advantages, accelerates value creation for Aramco to build our competitive advantages through AI. This planned investment combines the AI program and initiative of both Aramco and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund into Humane. It will drive Humane’s operations and growth as a regional leading AI infrastructure, cloud services, and AI applications provider. Through Humane, exclusive right in the Kingdom, we can develop impactful and scalable AI capabilities and also benefit from revenue growth potential. The AI tech transformation offers an attractive value proposition with increasing energy demand from AI-powered data centers.

We are well-positioned to capture these opportunities with our increased gas supply capacity, investment in renewable energy sources, along with one of the lowest hydrocarbon costs and upstream carbon and methane intensities. The combination of scale, technology, and efficiency gives Aramco a structural advantage as the energy system becomes increasingly digital, reinforcing our position as a global leader in energy technology. Before handing over the call to Ziad, let me provide some insight on the macro environment. Despite concerns about the impact of global tariffs, the world economy remains healthy, with estimates for world GDP growth now at 2.8% up from 2.6%. As seen on the top right chart of this slide, consensus estimates indicate 2 million barrels per day of growth from the first half to the second half of this year, which is a substantial upward revision of 500,000 barrels per day from previous consensus forecasts.

For full year 2025, we expect record oil demand of at least 106 million barrels per day. With market fundamentals remaining strong. Inventories are stable and below the five-year average despite OPEC Plus unwinding. Refining margins have doubled in certain regions, with refineries operating at maximum capacity, a trend which may continue into next year. Given these signals, we recognize the need for continued oil investment to meet rising demand. As you can see in the bottom right chart, the volume of resources that reached FID over the past decade have lagged behind production, failing to replace 100% of barrels produced. In fact, resources achieving FID as a proportion of annual depletion is estimated to reach a low of 32% this year. Supply in recent years is supported by resources that reached FID during the high investment period of 2008-2014.

As demand continues to rise in the years ahead, there is a greater need for investment. At Aramco, we are well-positioned to capture the potential upside and maximize shareholder value. Let me now hand over to Ziad to discuss our Q3 operational and financial performance.

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: Thank you, Amin, and welcome everyone. In the third quarter, we continued to deliver on our industry-leading growth programs with a very strong set of results. We are delivering strong operational momentum in our businesses, with several major liquids and gas projects coming online soon. These include Marjan and Berri projects, which are on track for completion by year-end and will add a combined 550,000 barrels per day of crude oil production capacity. Our gas expansion projects, including Jafurah phase I, the vast unconventional mega project and a crown jewel of our portfolio, and Tanajib Gas Plant are also on track for completion by year-end. Together, these add 1.3 billion standard cubic feet per day of combined sales gas production capacity. In the third quarter, we secured $11.1 billion of proceeds through the Jafurah midstream transaction with an international consortium. In downstream, we continued to capture value through integration.

54% of our crude oil production was utilized by our own downstream system in the first three quarters of 2025. We are strengthening our operational excellence with strong operational availability, and our supply reliability remained high at 99.9% as of Q3. Our strong performance has demonstrated the resilience of Aramco’s integrated portfolio, underscoring the effectiveness of our strategy while capturing value across the hydrocarbon value chain. Zooming in to our financial performance, as Amin outlined, our strong results in Q3 captured the impact of increased crude oil volumes, but also strong performance throughout our business. Our gas production in Q3 was the highest ever since our IPO, and downstream adjusted EBIT was the strongest since Q1 of 2024 when we started to provide the data. Upstream adjusted EBIT was $51.5 billion, up 15% from Q2. Downstream adjusted EBIT was resilient quarter-on-quarter at $2.6 billion.

Our group adjusted net income was $28 billion, up 14% from Q2 and also up year-on-year. Capital investments were $12.9 billion in Q3, taking the total to $38.4 billion in the first three quarters of this year. We continued to deliver our investment program on track and in guidance. We previously announced we expected a 2025 range of $52-$58 billion. Today, we are narrowing this guidance to the lower half of that range from $52-$55 billion. Free cash flow this quarter has increased by 55% to $23.6 billion compared to last quarter, driven by strong operating activities and financial discipline. Our financial position remains strong, with balance sheet gearing of 6.3% at the end of September. Slightly down on Q2 and remains industry-leading.

Our 12-month rolling ROACI was 18.4%, which is around twice the average of our peers, despite an impact from our significant capital investment program with assets under construction of around $110 billion. Increasing capital employed is not yet operational to generate attractive returns. Our resilience and ability to generate strong cash flows in any macro environment underscores the visibility of shareholder distributions. We expect significant upside in our operating cash flows based on projected demand. Our revised gas program growth target of around 80% is now expected to generate a further $12 billion-$15 billion of operating cash flow, and our downstream business is expected to generate an incremental $8 billion-$10 billion of operating cash flow from further growth and performance improvements in 2030. As we have demonstrated, we are able to increase crude oil volumes quickly, efficiently, and with little incremental cost.

Our rule of thumb is that every 1 million barrels per day of additional crude oil production translates into an additional $11 billion of annual operating cash flow based on 2025 average prices year to date. For illustration, if we were to use half of our available capacity in 2030, the additional $16.5 billion compared to 2024, plus the $20 billion-$25 billion from gas and downstream, would equate to around $40 billion additional operating cash flow. That would be around 30% higher in annualized operating cash flows in 2030 versus 2024, providing further upside potential to future distributions. The visibility of our dividend framework is underpinned by a progressive and sustainable base dividend, offering resilience on the downside, with our performance-linked dividend sharing any further upside.

We’ve built a clear and consistent track record of our quarterly base dividend, which we grew over the past three years by about 13% to reach $21.1 billion this quarter, as declared by the board. In addition, a performance-linked dividend of $220 million has been declared, aligned with our previously communicated mechanism. Both of these dividends will be distributed to shareholders later this month. In summary, we are able to deliver very attractive dividend growth and visibility, even as we are reinvesting significantly in our business to sustain advantage, capture opportunities, and build a stronger platform for further cash flow growth well into the future. Before we take your questions, let me recap our growth trajectory and investment proposition. We saw strong results in the quarter thanks to increased liquid and gas production, helping increase cash flows. We are well-positioned to grow operating cash flows even more in the future.

We will continue to lead in technology, and our further investments in AI are expected to support more value creation through digital transformation. We believe this continues to make Aramco a very attractive investment proposition. With that, thank you for your attention. Amin, Peter, and I are pleased to take your questions.

Operator: To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When asking a question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. I’ll now hand back over to Mr. Hutton.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thank you very much. Our first question comes from Iyad Golam of SMB. Go ahead, Iyad.

Iyad Golam, Analyst, SMB: Assalamualaikum. Congratulations on the strong results. I have two questions. The first one is regarding the additional gas capacity. What was the main enabler for that increase from 60% to 80%? Will that increase lead to higher CapEx? That is my first question. The second question is about the decline in OpEx, which supported the results in Q3. Can you please shed some light on the drivers behind the lower OpEx? Is that driven by efficiency, or is that sustainable in the long term? Thank you.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thank you, Iyad. I’ll take the first question, and Ziad will answer the second one. With regard to the additional gas, as you remember, we have been saying before that it will increase by 50% compared to our 2021 production level. And then we increased it to 60%. Now we increased it to 80%. It’s a result of our continued operational improvement in our operation, capitalizing on a lot of technologies that we are capturing through higher productivity from existing wells. Don’t forget these are, as we build more in the field and we put more slots in the different fields, we gain more information and capitalizing on our ability through the technology and efficiency improvement and scale, we are able to increase capacity. Capturing more production from even existing plants that had flexibility for added additional production on gas.

It is efficiency improvements, it is technology, higher productivity from existing wells, which helped us to do with minimal, we mentioned, we highlighted it is a minimal capital cost increase to achieve that increase from 60% to 80%. There is no higher capital that would be required to achieve that growth that we are planning for. Ziad?

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: Yeah, on your second question, the lower operating costs are mainly due to lower royalty associated with the lower oil price versus last year, as well as the lower value purchase.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thank you, Iyad. The next question comes from Michele de la Viña of Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Michele.

Thank you very much. Really, congratulations on the strong delivery, target upgrade, and the focus on capital efficiency. I wanted to come back to your comment on the AI-driven value generation because it is clearly a very important topic. I was wondering if you could lay out how you see that increasing the productivity, especially of your upstream. Given that you continue to increase production, I was just wondering how you are thinking about, on one side, all of this productivity improvement, and on the other side, perhaps the need to start increasing some of your rig count in the country and longer term maybe restart the Safaniyah tender process, which was stopped back in 2022, but which at some point could become another important asset to continue to support your sector-leading growth. Thank you.

Thank you, Michele. Aramco has been at the forefront of developing technology since the beginning. We are different than others. Other companies as we are able to quantify and recognize it. Dollar value. We have mentioned before that in 2023 and 2024, the total realized value from the technology is $6 billion. Almost 50% of that is related to AI. Our target going forward, for example, 2025 and beyond, is $2-$4 billion of technology realized value. It is something that we are expecting to benefit from. For AI to benefit from the full scale of AI and technology and digitalization, I always say you need to have the computing infrastructure. For example, if you look at Aramco, there are two supercomputers that exist. We built the infrastructure, the connectivity via satellite or transmitters or fiber optics between the fields and the central areas for better control over many, many years.

Not to mention, you need the quality of data. We have more than 90 years of historical geological data. Every day, we receive 10 billion daily data points. To receive that much data and benefit out of that in terms of your analytical and evaluation, you need to have the infrastructure. One thing that is also more important to realize the value, you need to have the talent. It is the most important thing. It’s not only the data scientists, the 200 or 300 data scientists that exist in the company. It is the subject matter professionals that are in the different brands. We have 6,000 today in Aramco trained on AI. That’s why the number of use cases in Aramco is increasing over the year. We have now more than 400 use cases.

Each use case is a project because it has either impact yield in a column in a plant or it impacts productivity from an existing plant. Or you look at individual wells. We can maximize the productivity from existing wells, capitalizing on AI technology by putting our laterals in more productive zones. This needs a lot of analytical data and your teraflops and simulation capability that is not matched anywhere in the world in terms of the capability that we have to do all of that simulation runs simultaneously while we’re drilling these wells. We have benefited over time. We are one of the few companies that we look at the realized value every year, and we use a third party to ensure that realized value is captured in our books. It is something that I think we believe in AI and digitalization and the benefit of it.

As I said, without the infrastructure, it’s not about bringing GPUs and chips and putting them in a data center and you think you can achieve the same. It is about the connectivity, about building that infrastructure. We have put a lot of investment over the years to ensure that we have what we have today in terms of digitalization. That helps us in our, what you’ve seen today in our gas growth from 60% to 80%, capturing all of that. With regard to your comments regarding Safaniyah that we put it, remember, there’s been a project that we looked at before where, based on us going to 13 million barrels. Now, the capacity at MSC, the maximum sustainable capacity of Aramco, is 12. Anything that is required to maintain the capacity is still ongoing. Berri is still on. Marjan is on. Dammam Hub is on.

Other infill drilling required is still on. We have a very strong maintain potential program to ensure that our maximum sustainable capacity is available when needed in the market. We are not really, and when there is a need to bring additional increments in the future to maintain that capacity, or if the government asks to increase that capacity beyond the 12 million, we are, increments are readily available to, and our reserve base of more than 250 billion barrels is readily available to increase our capacity if required. Thank you, Michele. The next question is from Sashank Lanka of Bank of America. Go ahead, Sashank.

Yes, thank you very much for the presentation, and again, congratulations on the solid set of results. I have two questions from my side. Just in terms of the incremental gas sales target that you’re mentioning, I was just wondering if, again, it’s going to be mainly focused on the domestic market. The reason I ask that is we, in the past, understood that 1 million barrels per day of oil will be replaced by about 5 billion cubic feet per day of gas for power generation. Just wondering, this incremental production, is that all still going to go to the domestic market, or is there some other use as well? That’s the first question. The second question is, with regards to the midstream deal, Jafurah, that you did, the proceeds of $11.1 billion, which quarter are you going to realize that in your cash flows?

How should we be looking at those proceeds in the context of your dividends, cash available for dividend payments? Thank you.

Thank you, Sashank. With regard to the gas, we are generating commercial returns through captive domestic demand, including the growth from AI data centers in the Kingdom. Definitely, the market in Saudi Arabia, even with the build of renewables, still there is need for more gas, either for industry, utility, and now what is coming through is data centers and the requirement in the future for data centers and how to require energy. Any additional beyond this gas, beyond satisfying the Kingdom requirement, it can be utilized for low carbon hydrogen, provided there is an offtake. Or we will continue to evaluate LNG as an option if there is excess demand or supply beyond the Kingdom requirement for that. With regard to midstream Jafurah, I think Ziad will talk about that. I think it is in the fourth quarter, but Ziad can shed more light.

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: Sashank, we’ve already received the proceeds. They’ll be reflected, like Amin said, in Q4. The use of it, just a reminder that this is part of our portfolio optimization program. The use of this is mainly to be redeployed according to our cash priorities. Our cash priorities have not changed. I mean, it’s cash, cash is fungible. If you’re tying it to dividends, again, the priorities are obtaining CapEx, followed by the base dividend, followed by growth, and then followed by additional distributions for further deleveraging. This is our, we’re delivering on what we said in the portfolio optimization program that we’ve got to unlock this capital.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Okay, thanks, Sashank. The next question is from Kim Fustier of HSBC. Go ahead, Kim.

Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. I noticed the strength in operating cash flow this quarter, which drove, I believe, the first reduction in your gearing ratio since mid-2023. The growth in cash flow was sort of twice out of adjusted net income compared to the second quarter. Could you talk about the moving parts? Anything in particular that boosted cash conversion this quarter? My second question is just going back to gas. Jafurah is, I believe, only part of your gas expansion program towards the 80% growth target. Could you talk about the other contributions from conventional fields, gas separation, etc.? Thank you.

Thank you, Kim. Ziad will answer the first question. With regard to your second question about where is the Jafurah, it is still the same. We are talking about $2 billion by 2030. We start first phase this quarter. You are right. It is coming from the different increments that we have in the fields, different plants that we have, Haradh and Hawiyah, that are planned, and incremental capacity that we have from the Tanajib Gas Plant that we are putting on this year, which is one of the biggest plants at $2.6 billion. Of course, as I said, there is a Hawiyah expansion, probably expansion, and then additional, as I said, capacity in existing plants that have capacity. They have more flexibility by adding more production to 80%. Ziad.

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: Kim, on your second question on operating cash flow, we did indeed see an increase in free cash flow quarter on quarter of 5%. Some of the moving parts, you’ve seen us reduce. Of course, the earnings are higher, so that’s the major driver. We had a favorable movement in working capital. Lastly, you’ve seen us kind of limit or narrow the capital guidance range to the lower end, and the run rate during the third quarter was lower. Those are the main three moving parts.

Thank you.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thanks, Kim. The next question is from Henri Patrick of UBS. Henri?

Yes, thank you. Hello, good morning. Thank you for the update. Two questions, please, on the gas target. The first one, on the associated cash flow growth, which has gone to 12-15, sorry, from 9-10, so wider range than last time around. Wondering what’s driving that wider range. Maybe if you can share some of the EDS assumptions around liquid prices. And then I wanted to check as well in terms of the timing of this extra production and cash flows for the next few years. Is that quite evenly spread over the next five years or more backloaded? Thank you.

Thank you, Andy. Definitely, as we bring more incremental production, as I said, this all refers to the 2021 actual production of gas. As our plan, every year we are bringing additional production. That will be reflected on the additional operating cash flow that we will be receiving from these increments. Anything regarding the range, Ziad?

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: I mean, this additional production and therefore the cash flow will start. Actually, we’re starting this fourth quarter, and then it’ll ramp up. You’ll see it as we ramp up production of the gas. A lot of it is backloaded. I didn’t understand the first question.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: I mean, about the range. If I can just intervene on that one, Henri, I wouldn’t think of it as a widening of the range in greater uncertainty. I think of it in terms of the base has been increased from 9 to 12, and there’s additional further upside reflected in the 12-15. I think it’s taking the whole thing up, and it’s coming from no changes in price assumptions. It’s more reflective of the scale of the volume potential. Okay. Make sense? Right. Thanks, Henri. The next question is from Eirene Himona of Bernstein.

Thank you very much for taking my questions and congratulations. First, a quick one. I wanted to ask, given the OPEC agreements to date, what crude oil production growth do you anticipate in the fourth quarter compared to the third? My second question on chemicals. We heard in this result season from all the IOCs that the cycle remains depressed and they do not expect a quick recovery. You’re obviously a major player. You have four major projects due to start up. I wanted to ask, A, what you’re seeing, and secondly, what you expect in terms of that cycle in 2026. Thank you.

Thank you, Eirene. With regard to OPEC announced unwinding, so far, total announced unwinding is around 2.6 million barrels per day of voluntary cut. It started from April. Saudi Arabia has the highest allocation of the OPEC Plus unwinding, with production expected to increase by around 1.1 million barrels per day from March through December. This is based also on the latest announcement of 137 that was unwound yesterday or the day before yesterday. Of course, when there is additional production that comes to Aramco, it comes with little or no additional cost because of our spare capacity that filled that additional production at no additional cost. And we always say, based on our rule of thumb, each 1 million barrel increase in production is expected to generate an annual additional operating cash flow of about $11 billion, based on 2025 average price year to date.

Now, back to your question about chemicals and petrochemicals. There is additional capacity that comes over the last five years, putting pressure, definitely, on the margins, forcing closures and rationalization in the industry. The pace of the recovery will benefit from the strong demand growth coupled with an effort to rationalize supply, mainly in Europe and Asia. Aramco assets are well-positioned to navigate potential challenges and sustain performance thanks to its diversified portfolio, global presence, and competitive advantage. For example, China’s petrochemical demand is 189 million tons per annum this year, representing 42% of the global market. The Chinese petrochemical market saw significant growth of 52% over the last five years, and it is expected to continue growing steadily. We always say China is a driving force in this position. It has provided us with a great opportunity as Aramco to participate in that capacity growth.

Basically, they are benefiting from both sides. The market is there. These chemicals are used as part of their need for carbon fiber, for electric vehicles, for wind turbines, for solar panels. At the same time, we are placing our barrels. If you notice, most of our investment is tagged replacement line. A 10% or 20% comes with a 70% replacement on that facility. We are placing our barrels. We benefit from both sides. It is a growth market, but it impacted other markets because it used to import from other markets. Now, they are looking for self-sufficiency. We are investing in that market. We are also benefiting from an advantage. It is stuck in the Kingdom, and the petrochemicals, SABIC and others, and benefiting from that.

We will be able, better than others, to sustain the impact of what is happening and rationalization that we will be seeing globally because certain markets, they need to really, we will see some closure, as I said, in Europe, certain parts of Asia, as a result of what is happening in the chemical market. If you look at our investment. Is focused in areas where it’s healthy, where also we benefit from our upstream by placing our upstream barrels in these assets. Eirene, if I can just add to the question you just said around impact on Q4, we can’t give guidance. Remember, the exit rate at the end of Q3 was around 1 million barrels a day higher than it was at the start of Q2. You won’t have seen all of the growth coming through in the average number for the third quarter.

You should look at the exit as a good indicator for the fourth quarter.

Thank you very much.

Okay. Thanks, Eirene. The next question is from Alastair Symes of Citi. Go ahead, Al.

Yeah, thanks, Peter. Hello, Amin and Said. I hope you’re all well. I just wanted to come back on gas and the AI point. What percentage of Saudi gas demand today is currently directed towards power for data centers? In the sort of outlook that you’re giving, what sort of percentage do you see in the 2030s? Secondly, related, I just, I don’t know a lot about the end market, but are there a lot of price differences for different consumers, or is it sort of a universal price across the Saudi economy for gas? Thank you.

Thank you, Alastair. With regard, we are. As I said, there is a significant growth in the Kingdom to facilitate or the growth that we see in the city and in the utility sector. Definitely, we have more potential of gas that is available, as I said, for growth. That will be directed to hydrogen or potential LNG if we satisfy and exceed the Kingdom requirement. The total requirement of data centers is still under evaluation right now, and we will be more than heavy and capable of meeting the demand in the Kingdom for data centers. The gas in the Kingdom is regulated to different segments, but it is a regulated price by the government.

The company is equalized to ensure that we generate commercial returns, and we said before double-digit when we talked about how much gas we supply to the local market and what do we generate as a result of that. We are more than, with our growth potential, for 2030 and beyond, we will be more than ready to supply whatever is needed for any growth in the data center. With energy and depending on their needs, if they need renewables, solar, wind, or gas, it is all available.

I mean, do you think the data center end user is the one that can pay the highest price for gas? As you talk about the different segments.

We are. It is, of course, it’s very, I would say, competitive price. It’s very realistic in terms of you look at the prices of gas here. And we have the lowest energy prices available. For, as we said, when we talked about data center in the Kingdom. Land is available at minimal cost or no cost. Solar, if you want solar and wind, we have high intensity and low cost. We looked at the number shown by the Ministry of Energy lately with the cost was as low as 1.3 cents per kilowatt hour for certain projects. So gas is very competitive compared to any market in terms of energy, in terms of cost. That will make data centers in the Kingdom a very successful program considering the need for energy and the talents available to execute these programs. Thanks, Alastair.

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia?

Ziad al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO, Aramco: Thanks, Peter. Good afternoon to everyone. Two questions, if I could. I’m going to come back to the AI side. The Humane minority investment, it feels like that’s actually probably a lot more important than I’m really picking up. Can you just walk through again where that is? Do you feel that’s really an acceleration from here of your AI strategy? The second one, if I could just take a step back and think about everything you’ve told us today, it’s been the increase in the cash flow associated with the gas side, the AI progress that you’ve made, CapEx at the low end. Is this a sense of actually that you’re feeling more confident around it? I’m just wondering what’s changed or whether it’s just a reflection of the confidence in the business. Thank you.

Amin Nasser, President and CEO, Aramco: Thank you very much, Lydia. I think our partnership with Humane is an important element because of our interest in AI and digitalization from the beginning. Humane will definitely help to accelerate our ambition as we’re seeing a lot of benefits. As I mentioned, that technology realized value as a result of our investment is very clear in 2023, 2024, and 2025. We have a number of data centers as exists right now. Having one national champion with focus, with a big market and then can serve outside this market as well, definitely will help to accelerate. Aramco’s involvement is because, as I said, because of our interest, benefit out of these data centers, large language models, applications that they have, the talent that exists. It will help us to work together with our partners in Public Investment Fund to accelerate the growth and the potential of this investment.

We are definitely a big beneficiary of the creation of Humane because of our interest. What we are seeing as a result of investment in technology and AI and digitalization and our strong growth potential and what we are aiming for. You’ve seen it reflected in gas. The application that we see on AI in terms of, I just need maybe another hour or two to sustain. I invite you to come and visit to see where these applications can be utilized to maximize productivity, to maximize yield from a column. Not everybody thinks about AI and reduction of manpower and finance or legal or translation or procurement. More benefits, of course, you’ll have all of that, but more benefits that Aramco is seeing is industrial applications where the cost is high. Look at your cost and productivity.

If you increase the production from a well or you double that production, you can understand the total benefit out of that. If you reduce your corrosion consumptions or reduce the number of failures in your big equipment and instrumentation and plant operations and shutdowns, it has also a huge impact on carbon minimization. Our carbon footprint, which we have one of the best, we are at 9.7 kilograms in carbon intensity, upstream carbon intensity. Our methane is 0.04. If you compare it to any other company, you will find out it is one of the lowest, if not the lowest, globally, benefiting also from all of these AI applications. You add anything about this?

Yeah, Lydia, on your second question, the increase in OCFs, yes, due to gas, and yes, it is absolutely an indication of our confidence in the business. You’ve seen not only the result of buying digital technologies, but also the more. We’ve spent on delineation and a lot more. Fine-tuned technical studies, the more. Gas we found, the more. Therefore we’ve upped our target. We first did a 50% increase by 2030 from 2021, then to 60%, now to 80%. Yes, absolutely, it’s higher confidence in the business. Gas, mostly a captive market to us. Providing commercial double-digit returns. We’re taking full advantage.

Thank you, Lydia. Moving through to Alex Comer of JP Morgan. Go ahead, Alex.

Yeah, I’ve just got a couple of questions. Just with regard to the gas strategy in Jafurah. Just wondering, Jafurah is quite ethane-rich. So I’m just wondering, will that ethane be put into the local petrochemical industry, or will any of it be exported? Can you give us some indication of the ramp-up in terms of barrels or standard cubic feet over the next couple of years?

Thank you, Alex. With regard to Jafurah, yes, you are absolutely right. We are looking to ramp up. Starting the first phase will be on this year, fourth quarter, we said. To ramp up, at least 2 billion sales gas by 2030. Ethane total that will come out of Jafurah. The good thing about Jafurah is liquid-rich and ethane-rich. The total liquid that comes from Jafurah is 630,000 barrels per day of high-value liquid and 420 million standard cubic feet per day of ethane. If you look at the total ethane, we are a big chemical hub here in the Kingdom with SABIC and other chemical companies. The total ethane is around, the Kingdom is less than a billion. So Jafurah alone, that increment is bringing almost more than 40% of the total ethane.

That ethane will be utilized to build additional capacity within the Kingdom to benefit from that advantage feedstock. This is when we talked about chemical and the impact on chemical globally. It has impacted everybody. The advantage feedstock definitely helped. That will be utilized in the Kingdom to grow the chemical potential within the Kingdom. I’m sure additional ethane will come with additional gas in the future. With regard to additional, if you are asking about increments, increments in oil are tied to our capacity. We are not increasing our maximum sustained capacity. All we are doing is maintaining that maximum sustained capacity that currently exists. Our increments are tied to maintaining that capacity, ensuring there is no decline, and maintaining it, of course, over the longer term. Thank you, Alex. The next question.

Very quick because we’re running short of time, Alex. Are you happy to? Yeah, I just wondered what the run rate was for the ethane in 2026, which is what I asked.

Run rate?

Run rate.

In 2026, we’re not.

Not the ’24.

We’re not providing, given you. We’ve given you the build-up to 2030, Alex. I’ll come back to you separately. Okay? Thank you. The next question is from Berton Audet of Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to come back on your natural gas target by 2030. You have raised volume significantly, but without more capital employed by 2030. You have raised significantly your grossing cash flow by almost $3 billion-$4 billion. My interpretation, and tell me if I am right, is that if you raise your cash flow target without more capital employed, should we understand that you can meet your ROACI hurdles in the natural gas business, which is above 10%, without the government adjustment mechanism or called the equalizer?

Thank you, Bertrand. Our rate of return is guaranteed. Based on each increment that comes to on stream. This is reviewed with the government every five years based on the increments that are coming online or on stream, ensuring that we maintain our rate of return. If there is a required adjustment to mature, it always takes into account that we maintain our rate of return that we are expecting as a result of all of these investments that we are putting on stream. The growth definitely reflects, as I said, more efficiency and all of that. It is something that is always reviewed every five years. We ensure we have now a track record of five years since we listed Aramco in late 2019, ensuring that we have healthy return on our gas investment. That is why you see the growth in gas.

As the Kingdom builds additional demand, we are always with our gas resources that exist in the Kingdom. We also need to ensure that we maximize our efficiency, our productivity, capitalizing on technology, ensuring we give them the best cost for the capital that these projects deserve, ensuring the efficiency is there always. This is what we always track, ensuring that if we can maximize the productivity from within existing plants, there is a creep, as I said, in certain plants. Or if we identify high productivity from existing wells, that is reflected in our total capital, which is used as the basis for our rate of return with the government.

Thank you.

Thank you, Berton. And the last question is from Eva Zenios of BNP Paribas. Eva?

After not the strong results for the downstream business, are you able to comment on your refining margin so far in the fourth quarter? Should we expect lower operational availability due to any maintenance or any further color there would be useful? If I can squeeze one more in, as we approach 2026, do you have an indication as to when we can expect the Zuluf project to be fully on stream? Thanks a lot.

Yeah. Thank you, Eva. 2025 has been a healthy year for the refining sector. Driven by the strong demand that we have seen from transport fuel. As you highlighted, the margin year to date has been averaged about 20% higher than last year, with margin in Q3 doubled last year as a result of higher refining runs. In the short term, we see healthy margins are likely with incremental demand for transport fuel coupled with constrained refining supply in the U.S. and Europe. We do not have anything in terms of the fourth quarter. It is the normal maintenance that we do in existing plants. There is nothing major to highlight other than the normal TNI and maintenance that we do. Nothing major to highlight. I said we do TNIs considering the number of refineries. Every month, there is, or every other month, there is a TNI or something.

There is nothing surprising in terms of our plans and what we are planning in the fourth quarter. I think Zuluf, the question is 2026. Zuluf is as planned. It is a major increment for Aramco and will come on stream in 2026. No change to our plan for putting it on stream. Of course, we are talking about Zuluf, Arabian heavy. That is, we have Zuluf as the Arabian medium to security of our production, but we are bringing 600,000 of Arabian heavy in 2026. No change to our plan. That brings us to the close of the questions. Thank you very much, everyone. We have overrun very slightly. Apologies for that one, but by one minute. That is near to our normal delivery on time. Thank you for your questions. Of course, if there are any follow-ups, please do not hesitate to contact us in investor relations.

Always happy to take your call. Thank you very much indeed.

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