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Source Energy Services Ltd reported disappointing third-quarter earnings for 2025, missing both EPS and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of -0.46, falling short of the expected 0.71, marking a significant surprise of -164.79%. Revenue also underperformed, coming in at 125.32 million USD against a forecast of 183.71 million USD, a shortfall of 31.78%. Following these results, Source Energy’s stock dropped by 8.19%, with shares closing at 12.21 USD.
Key Takeaways
- Source Energy missed Q3 2025 EPS and revenue forecasts significantly.
- Stock price fell by 8.19% in response to earnings results.
- Sand sales volumes decreased by 31% year-over-year.
- The company reduced its debt and repurchased shares.
- Operational improvements included mine expansions and new system implementations.
Company Performance
Source Energy’s performance in Q3 2025 reflected challenges in the market, with a notable decline in sand sales volumes, which fell by 31% compared to the previous year. Despite this, the company managed to reduce its outstanding debt by 11.7 million USD during the quarter and repurchased 392,000 shares since May, demonstrating a commitment to strengthening its financial position.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: 125.32 million USD, down from the forecasted 183.71 million USD.
- Earnings per share: -0.46, missing the forecast of 0.71.
- Adjusted EBITDA: 20.3 million USD, a decrease of 15.1 million USD year-over-year.
- Sand revenue: 100.3 million CAD, a decrease of 42 million CAD from the previous year.
Earnings vs. Forecast
Source Energy’s Q3 2025 earnings results were significantly below expectations, with an EPS surprise of -164.79% and a revenue shortfall of 31.78%. This deviation from forecasts highlights the challenges the company faced in the quarter, including weakened commodity prices and reduced completion activities due to economic uncertainty.
Market Reaction
Following the earnings report, Source Energy’s stock experienced a decline of 8.19%, closing at 12.21 USD. This movement reflects investor concerns over the company’s ability to meet financial expectations amidst a challenging market environment. The stock is now closer to its 52-week low of 6.79 USD, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors.
Outlook & Guidance
Looking ahead, Source Energy anticipates similar sand volumes in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The company remains optimistic about growth prospects in 2026 and 2027, driven by potential increases in LNG exports and natural gas pipeline capabilities. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is expected to see strong completion activity in 2026.
Executive Commentary
CEO Scott Melbourn expressed confidence in the company’s assets and market position, stating, "We expect 2026 to be a strong year for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin completion activity." He also emphasized the company’s strategic advantage in the Montney region and its industry-leading logistics chain for frac sand.
Risks and Challenges
- Weakened commodity prices in oil and natural gas could impact future revenues.
- Economic uncertainty may continue to depress completion activities.
- The expansion of competitor mines could affect Source Energy’s market share.
- Fluctuations in AECO natural gas pricing present a potential risk to profitability.
- Increased capital expenditures may pressure financial resources.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about monthly activity levels and future sand volume projections. Questions also focused on capital expenditure guidance and the impact of competitor mine expansions, reflecting concerns about the company’s strategic positioning and financial outlook.
Full transcript - Source Energy Services Ltd (SHLE) Q3 2025:
Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Source Energy Services Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star, then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Melbourn, CEO. Mr. Melbourn, please proceed. Please one moment while we deal with a technical issue regarding the playback. Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Source Energy Services Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded.
After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star, then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Melbourn, CEO. Mr. Melbourn, please proceed.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Source Energy Services Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. My name is Scott Melbourn. I’m the CEO of Source. I’m joined today by Derren Newell, our CFO. This morning, we’ll provide a brief overview of the quarter, which will be immediately followed by a question-and-answer period. Before I get started, I’d like to refer everyone to the financial statements and the MD&A that were posted to SEDAR and the company’s website last night, and remind you of the advisory on forward-looking information found in our MD&A and press release. On this call, Source’s numbers are in CAD and metric tons, and we will refer to adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, which are non-IFRS measures as described in our MD&A. Except for the items just mentioned, our financial information is prepared in accordance with IFRS.
After a couple of record quarters this year, and as anticipated, we experienced a slowdown in completions activity in Q3 as weaker commodity prices in both oil and natural gas, along with some economic uncertainty, caused our customers to defer some of their completions to the fourth quarter and into 2026. During the quarter, natural gas prices were hit particularly hard due to pipeline maintenance and LNG Canada not ramping up as fast as markets had expected, resulting in depressed AECO pricing. This work has not been lost; it has just been delayed, and as a result, we are expecting a much stronger Q4 than we had last year. For the second half of 2025, we expect similar volumes as the second half of 2024. During the third quarter, we continue to build our infrastructure to support the development of the Montney plant.
The expansion of the Peace River mine to 1 million tons of processing capacity is nearing completion, as is the construction of the Taylor terminal, which became fully operational during the quarter. Source also seized on a unique opportunity to acquire sand processing assets at a very attractive price. These assets, once disassembled and moved, will be used for the future expansion of the Peace River facility. The purchase comprises substantially all of the processing assets required to expand the production at the Peace River facility to a total capacity of 3 million tons per year. While we have made the decision to purchase these assets in order to move quickly when the time is right, the timeline for bringing these assets into operation will be dependent on the next phase of LNG export capacity and how quickly the overall profit market in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin grows.
With lower activity levels in Q3, we realized the following results: sand sales volumes of 665,000 tons, a 31% decrease from last year. Sand revenue and well site revenues, which include trucking and Sahara results in Canada, were impacted proportionally by the lower sales volume, while realized pricing actually improved. Total gross margin was down due to lower sales volume. Adjusted gross margin per ton of $45.57 is in line with prior years and year-to-date results. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million, a $15.1 million decrease from the third quarter of 2024. On the capital management front, we remain committed to disciplined balance sheet management, reducing outstanding debt by $11.7 million this quarter and a total of $19.9 million for the year. Building on that progress, we moved beyond debt reduction and are now allocating a portion of free cash flow to share repurchases through the normal course issuer bid.
Since launching the program in May, we have repurchased 392,000 shares, including 167,500 in Q3, further enhancing shareholder value and reinforcing our capital structure. With that, I will now turn it over to Derren.
Derren Newell, CFO, Source Energy Services: Thanks, Scott. As Scott mentioned, Source sold 665,000 metric tons of sand in Q3 2025, from which we generated CAD 100.3 million in sand revenue. Sand volumes were 31% lower for the reasons Scott explained, while sand revenue decreased by CAD 42 million. The decrease in revenue was volume-driven as the average realized price per metric ton actually increased by $3.15 compared to the prior year. The increase in the realized price was primarily due to a shift in terminal mix, partly offset by an increase in lower-priced finer sand sales. Well site solutions revenue for Q3 2025 was CAD 23.9 million, a decrease of CAD 16 million compared to Q3 2024. Lower sand sales volumes impacted the volumes hauled to and handled at the well site. In Canada, this resulted in lower trucking revenue and Sahara utilization, which came in at 47% for the quarter. The U.S.
Sahara fleet, however, was 100% utilized as it is fully contracted. Terminal services revenue was CAD 1.1 million, an increase of CAD 0.2 million compared to Q3 2024 due to higher revenue from chemical elevation volumes realized in the period, including the impact of the addition of hydrochloric transloading at the Chabron terminal. Cost of sales, excluding depreciation, decreased by CAD 44.8 million for the quarter compared to the same period in 2024 due to the decreased sand volume sold and lower truck volumes. On a per-ton basis, cost of sales was increased by a shift in terminal mix and decreased by fewer third-party sand purchases. The movement of foreign exchange rates on the U.S. dollar-denominated components of cost of sales caused an increase of $0.72 per metric ton compared to the third quarter of last year.
Total adjusted gross margins were lower due to lower sales volumes and lower volumes trucked to the well site. On a per-ton basis, excluding gross margin from mine yield volumes, adjusted gross margin was $46.56 compared to $45.89 for the third quarter of 2024. During the quarter, adjusted gross margin was favorably impacted by a customer performance bonus that was partially offset by the impact of additional costs attributed to the expansion of operations at the Peace River facility compared to the third quarter of last year. For the three months ended September 30, the weakening of the Canadian dollar favorably impacted adjusted gross margin by approximately CAD 0.52 per metric ton. Operating expenses in Q3 increased by CAD 0.7 million due to higher royalty-related fees, insurance premiums, and rail expenses for Source’s fleet, as well as the incremental costs incurred with the Taylor facility beginning operations.
These increases were partially offset by lower people costs reflecting reduced incentive compensation. General and admin expenses decreased by CAD 0.3 million for Q3 2025, primarily due to lower variable incentive compensation costs. This reduction was partly offset by the amortization of Source’s computing system, which we implemented last year. Finance expense for Q3 was lower by CAD 1.6 million compared to Q3 2024. The decrease was due to CAD 0.9 million in lower interest expense for long-term debt outstanding, including an adjustment to capitalize non-utilization fees on delayed draw facility incurred during this year, as well as lower accretion expense. Partly offsetting these was an increase in interest expense for outstanding lease obligations driven by the addition of heavy equipment leases and interest income earned. Interest income realized is attributed to the commencement of the sub-leases for Sahara units deployed last year, as well as cash balances on hand.
At quarter-end, Source had available liquidity of CAD 65.7 million. Capital expenditures for Q3, net of proceeds on disposals and excluding expenditures related to Taylor, were CAD 18.5 million, an increase of CAD 15.3 million compared to Q3 2024. Gross capital expenditures, excluding the construction of Taylor, increased by CAD 12.5 million, substantially attributed to the assets acquired for the future expansion of the Peace River facility, as Scott discussed. We also acquired some trailers for Source’s trucking operations. Maintenance and sustaining capital increased by CAD 2.8 million for Q3 2025, largely due to higher amounts for overburden removal from the mining operations. Lease obligations increased from the prior quarter, largely due to the timing of the addition of heavy equipment for Peace River done in the latter half of 2024, and yellow iron leases for the Wisconsin mining operations, which were replaced late in 2024 at higher rates.
Source is now in a cash taxable position in its U.S. operations and expects it will be cash taxable next year in Canada. With that, I’ll turn it back to you, Scott.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Thanks, Derren. As a result of the delays in completion activity experienced in the third quarter, Source anticipates increased activity levels for the remainder of the year, which will result in a solid rebound for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025 prop and demand similar or slightly ahead of 2024. We expect 2026 to be a strong year for Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin completion activity, driven by additional export capability via LNG Canada as it ramps up its production. We are pleased to note positive developments regarding all the proposed and under construction West Coast LNG projects, which will ultimately further expand export capability from the WCSB. Over the long term, we continue to believe increased demand for natural gas driven by LNG exports, increased natural gas pipeline export capabilities, and power generation will drive incremental demand for Source’s services.
Source continues to focus on enhancing our industry-leading frac sand logistics chain, and we have and will continue to execute on a number of opportunities to grow the company and to further our competitive advantage. Thank you for your time this morning. That concludes the formal portion of our call. We will now ask the operator to open the lines for questions.
Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Nick Kokoren with Acumen Capital. Please go ahead.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Good morning, Nick.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: Just the first question for me, you mentioned that completion activity slowed in the quarter. Can you maybe talk to what you’ve seen month to month through the quarter and maybe into Q4 as well?
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Yeah. You know, we saw sort of the beginning of Q3 as really status quo. And then we start, as we progressed in Q3, the activity level started to slow. We’re kind of seeing the reverse of that. As we move into Q4, we’ve seen activity level starting to ramp. We expect to continue to ramp throughout the balance of Q4 and then slow down with our normal seasonal slowdown in December for as everyone kind of pauses for the holiday period.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: As I pointed, you mentioned sand volumes are expected to flat to slightly up in 2025. Any indication what you’re expecting in 2026 and 2027 based on initial discussions with customers?
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: You know, I think our initial view of 2026 is we will likely see some growth over where we ultimately land in 2025. You know, I would caution, we’re really early days with our customer budget and the budgeting process. There is certainly going to be some ins and outs. However, we do believe that we’re going to see some growth ’25 to ’26. As we cycle into 2027 and beyond, I would expect that we’re going to see additional growth in those years as well.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: Great. Maybe a question for Derren. Any guidance on what capital will land for 2025 and then 2026?
Derren Newell, CFO, Source Energy Services: You know, you’ve seen our capital move up. You know, we’re sort of in the CAD 45 million-CAD 50 million range right now with capital for 2025. 2026 is early days. You know, as we work through kind of where we are with our Peace River expansion and the timing of it, not quite ready to tell the world what the plan is.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: That’s fair. Maybe a related question. There’s been some recent news of another mine expansion in Alberta. I’m just wondering how you expect these to impact the overall market going forward.
Derren Newell, CFO, Source Energy Services: Sorry, Nick, I missed the first part of that question.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: Yeah, just recent news of other mine expansions in Alberta.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Yeah, maybe I’ll take that one, Nick. You know, I think we’re not surprised by other domestic players in Alberta expanding their production capability. I think we’ve seen a movement in the market generally to a little more domestic in their program. You know, we’re very confident in our Peace River asset, and we’re very confident in our Northern White offering, especially as it relates to the Montney and the location advantage we have at Peace River and our network throughout the Montney. So we don’t anticipate those expansions or those announced expansions to have really much of an impact on our business and our core areas at all. You know, obviously, we’ll be keeping a close eye on it, but I think our location advantage and our network advantage is substantial, and we won’t see much of an impact at all.
Nick Kokoren, Analyst, Acumen Capital: Thanks. That’s great, Keller. I’ll pass along.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Thank you, Nick.
Conference Operator: Once again, if you have a question, please press star then one. This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Melbourn for any closing remarks.
Scott Melbourn, CEO, Source Energy Services: Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. If you have any follow-on questions, please feel free to reach out to myself or Derren.
Conference Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.
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