Earnings call transcript: Supremex Q3 2025 beats EPS forecasts, stock rises

Supremex Inc. (SXP) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a strong performance with earnings per share (EPS) of CAD 0.19, significantly surpassing the forecasted CAD 0.09. This represents a 111.11% surprise. Despite a revenue shortfall, with actual revenue at CAD 65.7 million compared to the expected CAD 70.9 million, the company’s stock price increased by 1.4% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor optimism.

Key Takeaways

• Supremex’s EPS of CAD 0.19 exceeded expectations by over 111%.
• Revenue fell short of forecasts, coming in at CAD 65.7 million.
• The stock price rose by 1.4% following the earnings announcement.
• The company reported strong performance in the folding carton and e-commerce packaging segments.
• Supremex maintained a robust balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.3x.

Company Performance

Supremex demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, with notable growth in its packaging segment. The company reported double-digit growth in folding cartons and e-commerce solutions, offsetting some of the challenges faced in its envelope segment. Supremex’s strategic acquisitions, including Envelope Laurentide and Transgraphic, have bolstered its market position despite economic uncertainties affecting the direct mail industry.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: CAD 65.7 million, down from CAD 69.4 million YoY.
• EPS: CAD 0.19, compared to a net loss in the previous year.
• Adjusted EBITDA: CAD 6.2 million, down from CAD 7.9 million YoY.
• Net earnings: CAD 9.1 million, a significant turnaround from last year’s loss.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Supremex’s EPS of CAD 0.19 was a substantial beat over the forecasted CAD 0.09, marking a 111.11% surprise. However, revenue fell short by 7.36%, indicating challenges in meeting market expectations. This EPS beat is a positive deviation from previous quarters, where the company faced more significant challenges.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings call, Supremex’s stock price rose by 1.4%, closing at CAD 3.61. This increase reflects positive investor sentiment, despite the revenue miss. The stock’s movement aligns with its 52-week range, suggesting a stable market reaction amidst broader market trends.

Outlook & Guidance

Supremex remains optimistic about its future, focusing on enhancing productivity within its envelope and packaging networks. The company plans to pursue further acquisitions to boost profitability and maintain shareholder value through dividends and share repurchases. Projections for 2026 are particularly optimistic, with expectations of improved performance with U.S. direct mail clients.

Executive Commentary

CEO Stuart Emerson emphasized the importance of volume for absorption and productivity, stating, "Volume is magic in terms of absorption." He also highlighted the company’s strong balance sheet, which provides flexibility in executing its business strategy.

Risks and Challenges

• Economic instability in Canada and the U.S. could affect direct mail volumes.
• Uncertainty surrounding Canada Post may impact the envelope segment.
• Potential supply chain disruptions could affect production and distribution.
• Competitive pressures in the packaging industry may challenge market share.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of recent acquisitions and the company’s strategy to mitigate direct mail volume declines. Supremex’s management highlighted ongoing discussions with key U.S. clients and reiterated their commitment to leveraging acquisitions for growth.

Supremex’s Q3 2025 results highlight its ability to navigate challenging market conditions while delivering stronger-than-expected earnings, positioning the company for future growth despite current economic uncertainties.

Full transcript - Supremex Inc. (SXP) Q3 2025:

Conference Call Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Supremex Third Quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. Before turning the meeting over to management, please be advised that this conference call will contain statements that are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, November 6th, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Martin Goulet of MBC Capital Markets Advisors. Please go ahead.

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: Thank you, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks for joining this discussion of Supremex’s financial and operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The press release reporting these results was published earlier this morning via the GlobeNewswire news services. It can also be found in the investors’ section of the company’s website at www.supremex.com, along with the MD&A and financial statements. These documents are available on SEDAR+ as well. A presentation supporting this conference call has also been posted on the website. Let me remind you that all figures expressed on today’s call are in CAD unless otherwise stated. Presenting today will be Stuart Emerson, President and CEO of Supremex, as well as Norm McAuley, CFO.

With that, I invite you to turn to slide 37 of the presentation for an overview of the third quarter, and I turn the call over to Stuart.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Hey, thank you, Martin. Good morning, everyone. I’m joined today by Norm McAuley, Supremex’s new Chief Financial Officer. Norm joined us mid-September and brings more than 20 years of experience as a financial executive with large private and public companies. We’re very pleased to have him on board as the company will benefit from his leadership skills and expertise in all matters related to corporate finance, M&A, and process optimization. Welcome aboard, Norm. While the results may not have been where we wanted them to be, largely due to external forces, we have been uber-active in building the business, returning value to shareholders, and positioning ourselves to execute on our plan and long-term success. First, I want to draw your attention to our financial position, which is as strong as it has ever been.

As you know, during the quarter, we completed the sale leaseback of two owned properties in a transaction that grossed CAD 53 million. This transaction unlocked significant value for our shareholders, who were rewarded with a CAD 0.50 per share special dividend on top of the regular CAD 0.05 quarterly payout. We also repaid a substantial amount of debt, leaving us with net debt of only CAD 89 million at the end of Q3, which provides us with excellent flexibility to carry out our business strategy. Norm will discuss the net debt position in more detail shortly. Now, let’s look more closely at operations, beginning with the envelope business. While revenue decreased 5% year over year, it was up 3% sequentially from Q2 as we battled significant headwinds. To provide color on those headwinds. First, obviously, the Canada Post uncertainty continues to affect volumes, primarily in the high-value.

Added direct mail and fundraising space. I wish I could give you an exact number, but it’s difficult. However, looking at the DM-centric accounts and anecdotally, it’s clear that the uncertainty of when a time-sensitive piece will arrive in the mailbox has taken its toll on volumes. Second, if you recall from last quarter, we highlighted a substantial volume decline with an important U.S. direct mail client, and that situation affected Q3 results considerably. More on that. Later in the commentary. Finally, economic uncertainty, instability, and a slowing economy both in Canada and the U.S. is not helpful to volumes, particularly in the direct mail and fundraising segment. Frankly, being minus 5% versus last year and up 3% sequentially can be viewed as a good outcome through our prism.

We’ve worked hard to manage costs effectively, augment our position in the Canadian market with a tuck-in acquisition of Canada’s third-largest producer, and. While nothing is in the bucket, our relationship with the aforementioned U.S. direct mail account is solid. We continue to do work for them, and we are optimistic about 2026. I understand quarter-to-quarter is an important measure, and as I said a moment ago, we view a 5% decline in revenue as a pretty good outcome given the challenges. To me, year over year is a better measure, and in that case, despite the headwinds created by Canada Post, which has persisted virtually all year, and the slowing economies. That single U.S. customer reduction has accounted for more than 100% of the revenue decline year to year. In fact, net of the impact of one customer, U.S.

Units and revenue are up mid to high single-digit percentages, and across the entire Supremex envelope segment globally, units are down less than 1%. Revenue is flat, and average selling price is up year over year. Our team has done a tremendous job both operationally and on the sales side to mitigate the effects in a tough environment on both sides of the border. A few moments ago, I mentioned the acquisition of the third-largest envelope manufacturer in Canada, and I wanted to provide a little more context. In July, we acquired the assets of Envelope Laurentide in Saint-Laurent, Quebec, a suburb a mere kilometers from our La Salle envelope facility. Laurentide manufactured and brokered envelopes primarily in eastern Canada. As planned, we ceased production at their facility on August 15th and integrated both the manufactured and brokered volume within our existing network in Canada.

This highly accretive acquisition will improve absorption and will deliver meaningful synergies going forward. In a nutshell, while on the surface, envelope performance may not have been where we wanted or expected them to be, the team has done a good job navigating very choppy waters. Our underlying fundamentals are solid, and we have confidence in our ability to drive volume to maintain high levels of utilization and absorption across our highly efficient network. Turning to packaging, although revenue was down, we sustained our momentum with double-digit growth in both folding carton and e-commerce solutions, while Paragraph’s commercial printing activities, largely for the direct mail market, not surprisingly, had a difficult quarter. In folding carton, double-digit growth both in the quarter and year to date was driven by continued strong performance in the health and beauty and over-the-counter pharmaceutical segments.

New business wins from current and reactivated customers and revenue from the newly acquired Transgraphic folding carton business, which supports our strategic plan to enhance our presence in the food-grade packaging, where we see solid growth prospects. While the Envelope Laurentide transaction closed on July 14 and ceased production a month later, in this highly accretive transaction, we closed Transgraphic a week earlier on July 7 and ceased production 14 days later. As planned, most of Transgraphic’s activities have been transferred to the Lachine facility, which will allow us to grow in the food packaging space, improve efficiency and absorption, as well as achieve meaningful synergies. It should be noted that we exited both facilities by the end of October.

In e-commerce and specialty packaging, momentum created by new customer wins and greater volume from existing customers produced well into double-digit revenue growth for yet another quarter and year to date. While the core of the packaging business continues to perform admirably, both in terms of revenue and profitability, unfortunately, the less core commercial print business continues to have its challenges. We haven’t really spoken about Paragraph’s customer and product base in the past. However, like Envelope, this business has meaningful reliance on Canada Post, direct mail, and fundraising with respect to the inner components and couponing. Not surprisingly, these revenues have been materially impacted by Canada Post’s uncertainty, delivery of time-sensitive offers and promotions. Excuse me. While we are focused, we just haven’t been able to offset the precipitous drop in volume and revenue in the relatively small Quebec market.

As for profitability in the segment, the drop in Paragraph revenue took the wind out of our sail after an encouraging first half and strong revenue performance of two of the three legs of the business in Q3. This quarter’s adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.5% is clearly not acceptable. The stark lack of volume and contribution from Paragraph has shaved off approximately 300 basis points of packaging margin on a year-to-date basis. I reiterate what I’ve said for several quarters now. We have high-quality assets, available capacity, deliver quality products and service, have a premium diversified customer base on both sides of the border, as well as the right leadership in the right seats. Volume is magic in terms of absorption, and we continue to look for profitable revenue growth, but there’s also more to capture within our network in terms of efficiencies and synergies. This is our priority.

With that, I turn the call over to Norm for a review of the financial results.

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: Thank you, Stuart. Good morning, everyone. I’m very pleased to join Supremex, a dynamic, well-managed, and financially disciplined company. Please turn to slide 38 of the presentation. Q3 total revenue came in at CAD 65.7 million compared to CAD 69.4 million last year. Envelope revenue was CAD 45.1 million, down from CAD 47.5 million last year, but up sequentially from CAD 43.8 million in the second quarter. The year-over-year variation reflects a 4.2% decrease in average selling prices, mainly due to a less favorable customer and product mix between the U.S. and Canada. Meanwhile, volume decreased 0.8%, and as Stuart mentioned, volume in Canada increased due to the Envelope Laurentide acquisition, while the U.S. decline was essentially related to one customer. Packaging and specialty products revenue was CAD 20.6 million versus CAD 21.9 million last year. The decrease is mostly attributable to lower revenue from commercial printing activities.

This was offset by higher folding carton revenue driven by greater demand from sectors more closely correlated to economic conditions, new business wins from existing customers, and the contribution from Transgraphic, which was acquired in July. Revenue from e-commerce-related packaging solutions also increased, driven by higher demand from existing customers and new customer wins. Moving to slide 39. Adjusted EBITDA totaled CAD 6.2 million, or 9.4% of sales, compared to CAD 7.9 million, or 11.4% of sales in last year’s third quarter, but up sequentially from CAD 5.8 million, or 8.8% of sales in the second quarter of 2025. Envelope-adjusted EBITDA was CAD 5.3 million, or 11.8% of sales versus CAD 7.9 million, or 16.7% of sales last year. The decrease reflects lower selling prices and the effect of lower volume on the absorption of fixed costs. These factors were partially offset by benefits from optimization measures in the Toronto area and procurement optimization initiatives.

Packaging and specialty products-adjusted EBITDA was CAD 2.2 million, or 10.5% of sales, compared to CAD 2.5 million, or 11.3% of sales last year. The decrease is due to a less favorable revenue mix, partially offset by procurement optimization initiatives. Finally, corporate and unallocated costs totaled CAD 1.3 million versus CAD 2.5 million last year. The decrease is attributable to a foreign exchange gain this quarter as opposed to a loss last year and to lower professional fees. Turning to slide 40. During the quarter, Supremex recorded a CAD 6.1 million gain on the sale leaseback transaction. The transaction, which resulted in increased right-of-use assets and lease liabilities, created a deferred tax asset, which gave rise to an income tax recovery of CAD 3.1 million in Q3 2025.

As a result, Supremex concluded the third quarter with net earnings of CAD 9.1 million, or CAD 0.37 per share, versus a net loss of CAD 23 million, or a loss of CAD 0.92 per share in last year’s third quarter, in which an asset impairment charge of CAD 23 million was incurred. Adjusted net earnings were CAD 4.7 million, or CAD 0.19 per share in Q3 2025, up from CAD 1 million, or CAD 0.05 per share, a year ago. Moving to cash flow on slide 41. Net cash flows from operating activities were negative CAD 0.6 million compared to positive CAD 7.6 million last year, mainly due to a lower working capital release this year compared to last. Turning to slide 42. Net debt stood at CAD 8.9 million as of September 30, 2025.

Down significantly from CAD 38.4 million three months ago, reflecting a long-term debt repayment of CAD 31.5 million using proceeds from the sale leaseback. Further, we used CAD 13.5 million of the proceeds from the sale leaseback to pay both the regular dividend and special dividend, and CAD 7.9 million to acquire both Envelope Laurentide and Transgraphic during the quarter. Our ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.3 times versus 1.1 times three months ago, well within our comfort zone of keeping our leverage ratio below 2 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Our strong financial position leaves us with significant flexibility to finance our operations and future investments, including acquisitions, as well as to return funds to shareholders. In this regard, following the launch of a normal course issuer bid program in August, we repurchased approximately 44,000 shares in Q3 for a consideration of CAD 0.2 million.

Subsequent to period end, we repurchased an additional 38,864 shares for a consideration of CAD 0.1 million. The NCIB program allows Supremex to purchase for cancellation more than 1.5 million shares, representing 10% of our public float until August 10, 2026. Finally, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.05 per common share payable on December 19, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 4, 2025. I now turn the call back to Stuart for the outlook.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Great. Thanks, Norm. Although our results were short of our potential, we’re buoyed by the significant important improvements in our core business, materially improved operations, and the benefits of the tuck-ins completed partway through the quarter as we continue to methodically build the business for the long term. As I’ve said previously, we can’t control the economy and the trade environment, but we will focus on making our envelope and packaging networks more productive and efficient while actively driving sales and seeking additional revenue opportunities. We have a solid foundation ready to be further built on. Our balance sheet is very strong, which provides us with the flexibility to execute our business strategy and sustain long-term profitable growth. We will also utilize our available cash capital and strong cash flow judiciously.

First, by looking for acquisition targets that we can rapidly and efficiently tuck into our existing footprint to enhance absorption to drive profitability, or towards transactions that grow reach in our principal markets while enhancing absorption to drive profitability. Second, we are committed to returning value to shareholders via share repurchase and a fair yet conservative regular quarterly dividend payout that reflects our confidence in the ability to sustain free cash flow growth. This concludes our prepared remarks. We’re now ready to answer your questions. Operator.

Conference Call Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you’re using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Donangelo Volpe with Beacon Securities. Please go ahead.

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: Hey, good morning, guys. Just looking at the two acquisitions, just shy of CAD 8 million spent. Just curious on what was the split between the two on a revenue basis and kind of what their trailing twelve-month revenue and EBITDA profiles looked like.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Whoa. The envelope—hey, I’m sorry. The envelope acquisition was a little north of CAD 10 million, and the folding carton was somewhere around just shy of CAD 3 million. We do the splits there.

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: Those on a TTM basis.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: On a TTM basis, yeah. Both businesses were profitable, but with the synergies of the tuck-in, highly accretive for Supremex in a very short period.

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: Okay. Perfect. Thank you. Then just pivoting over to the packaging side, can you just provide a little bit more color on the underperformance from the commercial printing? Just curious how big this drag was and kind of what your outlook is over the coming quarters because how I’m looking at this is the folding carton and e-commerce packaging revenues are tracking above expectations.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Yeah. I mean, obviously, it was a significant drag with reference to both e-com and folding carton, both double-digit %, significant increases. They were more than offset by the decline in the commercial print operations. I wish I had talked a little bit more about what’s inside that commercial print business. As you can imagine, anything in direct mail and fundraising has internal components that go in it. There is a fair bit of couponing, and that work is largely done by commercial printers, and Paragraph was no exception to the rule. If there is no direct mail going out, there are no postcards showing up in your mailbox or significantly reduced numbers. It has a drag on the commercial print sector. Paragraph’s top two customers are direct mail customers. It just overshadowed significant growth on sort of the core piece of the business, if you will.

As Canada Post stabilizes and we get this thing behind us and under our belt, that revenue should come back, or a large chunk of it should come back. We’re actively addressing the cost side of the business to align with the changes in revenue.

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: Okay. Perfect. Thanks for the color there. Just pivoting over to, I guess, the geographic revenues. We were impressed with the revenues in Canada. It is relatively flat year over year. The decline was mostly attributable to the U.S. operations. I’m assuming it is through that one customer. Can you talk to some of the dynamics you are seeing throughout the start of Q4 so far? Has there been any positive commentary from that one customer, or do we kind of expect the continued year-over-year declines over the next couple of quarters from the U.S., predominantly driven through the one customer?

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: There’s a lot of questions wrapped up in that question there, Donangelo.

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: I’m going to be asking a million questions.

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: Yeah. So I was writing them down, but I presume you’re talking envelope predominantly. Before I forget, I will reference packaging just a little bit. Both folding carton and e-commerce, they continue on a bit of a tear on the revenue side. While we don’t provide guidance specifically, both of them got out of the gate in Q4, and the backlogs are really good. We are excited there. On the envelope side, yeah. Canada envelope, I mean, it’s a little engine that could. There’s not a lot of direct mail envelope in Canada, so the postal strike doesn’t sort of affect as much as a lot of people would expect. The Canadian envelope business just chugs along. It got a little growth in average selling price, and it was buoyed by the two and a half months, 2.25 months of Laurentide in the foundation.

A little bit offset by some increased costs early in the acquisition that you sort of have to absorb. The revenue of Laurentide certainly helped. It contributed exactly on pace of what we would have expected, given their TTM revenue. On the U.S. side, the team’s done a heck of a job trying to offset and getting growth to try and offset, call it customer A, if you will, just to make it easier. They’ve done a good job sort of offsetting it. The conversations with customer A are very encouraging. Very encouraging. As I said in my comments, it’s not like we lost the customer. That’s an important consideration. The customer changed some buying habits. Our share of the customer weren’t at the same level that they’ve been previously, but we continue to do business for them.

We continue to execute on their behalf. We are an important supplier to them. We continue to be an important supplier. We think we are going to be an even more important supplier next year. Did I catch them all?

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: You got them all. I appreciate that. Thank you. Yeah. Final one for me, if I may. Just with the cleaned-up balance sheet, post-sale leaseback, can you just talk a little bit on the M&A pipeline at the moment? Obviously, I understand that the focus is on the packaging segment. I’m just curious on priority: is it Canadian-focused or U.S.-focused, or if you’re kind of indifferent between the two?

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Yeah. Our stated strategy has been we’ll look for tuck-in acquisitions, either in envelope or packaging, which we did in Q3. We’re good at envelope. We’re not afraid of envelope. If we can shore up absorption in a particular geographic market, we’re excited to do that. We’re in and out three months, bang, we’re gone. They’re highly accretive very quickly. With the balance sheet, we’ll continue to look at some good tuck-ins. Doesn’t really matter. It can be envelope or packaging. On the packaging side, our stated strategy is predominantly Canada, in folding carton, and that persists. We’ve got a good solid pipeline.

Donangelo Volpe, Analyst, Beacon Securities: Okay. I appreciate the answering all my questions. I’ll hop back in the queue. Have a good one, guys.

Martin Goulet, MBC Capital Markets Advisors, MBC Capital Markets Advisors: Thank you, Donangelo.

Conference Call Operator: Once again, if you have a question, please press star then one. This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Stuart Emerson for any closing remarks.

Stuart Emerson, President and CEO, Supremex: Hey, thank you, Operator. Thanks very much for joining us this morning, folks. We really appreciate you taking time out. We look forward to speaking to you again at our next quarterly call. Have a great day.

Conference Call Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

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