Cardiff Oncology shares plunge after Q2 earnings miss
Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO) reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a slight miss on earnings per share (EPS) and a revenue shortfall compared to analyst forecasts. The company reported an actual EPS of -$0.02, falling short of the forecasted -$0.015. Revenue came in at $139.15 million, below the expected $141.07 million. Following the earnings announcement, Taseko Mines’ stock price dropped by 9.77%, closing at $3.07, reflecting investor concerns. According to InvestingPro data, three analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, suggesting continued challenges ahead.
Key Takeaways
- Taseko Mines reported a GAAP net loss of $29 million, equivalent to $0.09 per share.
- Copper production guidance for 2025 has been reduced to 110-120 million pounds.
- The Florence Copper Project is nearing completion, with first production expected in 2025.
- Stock price fell nearly 10% in after-hours trading following the earnings release.
Company Performance
Taseko Mines’ performance in Q1 2025 was marked by operational challenges and a reduction in copper production guidance. The company sold 22 million pounds of copper at an average price of $4.24 per pound, but faced difficulties at the Gibraltar Mine, where copper recoveries dropped to 68%. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong liquidity position with $121 million in cash and $279 million in available liquidity. InvestingPro analysis shows the company operates with a significant debt burden, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74, though its current ratio of 1.3 indicates adequate short-term liquidity.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: $139 million, down from the forecast of $141.07 million.
- EPS: -$0.02, missing the forecast of -$0.015.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $34 million.
- Cash Position: $121 million.
Earnings vs. Forecast
Taseko Mines’ actual EPS of -$0.02 was slightly below the forecasted -$0.015, marking a minor miss. Revenue also fell short of expectations by approximately $1.92 million. This performance reflects ongoing operational challenges and market conditions affecting the company’s output and profitability.
Market Reaction
Following the earnings release, Taseko Mines’ stock price dropped by 9.77%, closing at $3.07. This decline reflects investor concerns over the company’s reduced production guidance and the missed financial targets. The stock is trading closer to its 52-week low of $2.38, indicating a cautious market sentiment. InvestingPro data reveals the stock has shown significant volatility, though it maintains a strong return over the last five years. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock currently appears undervalued. Subscribers can access 8 additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics through the Pro platform.
Outlook & Guidance
The company has revised its 2025 copper production guidance to 110-120 million pounds, down from previous estimates. However, Taseko Mines remains optimistic about its Florence Copper Project, which is expected to produce its first copper cathode by the end of 2025. While the company is not currently profitable over the last twelve months, InvestingPro analysts expect net income growth this year, with a projected EPS of $8.92 for FY2025. Detailed analysis and growth projections are available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, part of the extensive coverage of over 1,400 US equities on InvestingPro. The company has also implemented copper price protection measures, with a floor of $4 per pound and an upside of $5.4 per pound.
Executive Commentary
CEO Stuart McDonald noted, "It’s been ten years since we acquired the Florence project and we’re now less than nine months from producing first cathodes." CFO Bryce Hamming added, "We continue to expect final capital to be within 15% of our 2023 estimate of $230 million."
Risks and Challenges
- Operational challenges at the Gibraltar Mine affecting production and recovery rates.
- Potential U.S. import tariffs on copper, which could impact costs.
- Market volatility in copper prices, despite price protection measures.
- Reduced production guidance may affect revenue forecasts and investor confidence.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the mining challenges in the Gibraltar connector pit and the potential impact of tariffs on the Florence project. Executives reassured that tariffs would not affect the project’s capital expenditures and provided a positive update on the New Prosperity project, although specifics were not disclosed.
Full transcript - Taseko Mines Ltd (TKO) Q1 2025:
Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Taseko Mites First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today’s program is being recorded. And now I’d like to introduce your host for today’s program, Brian Burgo, Vice President, Investor Relations.
Please go ahead, sir.
Brian Burgo, Vice President, Investor Relations, Taseko Mines: Thank you, Jonathan. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining Taseko’s first quarter twenty twenty five conference call. The news release and regulatory filing announcing our financial and operational results was issued yesterday after market close and is available on our website at tasecomines.com and on SEDAR plus I am joined today in Vancouver by Taseko’s President and CEO, Stuart McDonald Taseko’s Chief Financial Officer, Bryce Hamming and our COO, Richard Tremblay. As usual, before we get into opening remarks by management, I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions will contain forward looking information. This information by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties.
As such, actual results may differ materially from the views expressed today. For further information on these risks and uncertainties, I encourage you to read the cautionary note that accompanies our first quarter MD and A and the related news release, as well as the risk factors particular to our company. These documents can be found on our website and also on SEDAR plus I would also like to point out we will use various non GAAP measures during the call. You can find explanations and reconciliations regarding these measures in the related news release. And finally, all dollar amounts we will discuss today are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.
Following opening remarks, we will open the phone lines to analysts and investors for questions. I will now turn the call over to Stuart for his remarks.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO, Taseko Mines: Great. Thank you, Brian, and welcome everyone to our first quarter conference call. As usual, I’ll start with a business overview of our key activities and operational results in the quarter, and then turn the call over to Bryce for a more detailed review of the financial performance. So starting with Florence, our Florence copper project, we just issued a project update last week confirming everything is moving forward on time and on budget. Good progress continues to be made with construction activities at site and we remain on schedule to produce first copper before the end of this year.
In the well field, as of this week, we only have two wells left to drill. So, have 88 out of 90 production wells completed and all 18 of the point of compliance wells are also done. We’ve ramped down to just one drill remaining on-site and that one will be finishing up in the next few weeks. This is a great accomplishment as obviously the well field is a critical aspect of the overall project. In the SXEW plant area, we also have a lot of activity in progress and all critical path items are moving forward on schedule.
The installation of the electro winning crane was completed in Q1, which allowed for the final wall and roof panels to be installed, completing the building structure. Current areas of focus include installation of electrical and piping equipment, completion of the substation facility, and ongoing work on the pipe corridor to connect the plant to the wellfield. In the coming months, as key systems are completed, progressive commissioning and testing will occur at the same time as the final construction activities. And in the fall, we expect to commence well field operations and initial injection, which sets us up for first copper cathode production before the end of the year. We continue to advance initiatives for operational readiness.
Recruiting is going well. By next week we’ll have over 100 employees on-site. We’re also close to finalizing our first asset supply contract for the initial injection and pre leaching period later this year. It’s been ten years since we acquired the Florence project and we’re now less than nine months from producing first cathodes. It’s been a long process to get where we are today, but I think the outcome is going to be well worth the wait for all our shareholders and other stakeholders.
Florence is one of the few copper projects in the world currently under construction and it will be a major new supplier of refined copper capital for The U. S. Market. The potential for U. S.
Import tariffs on copper is further evidence of the unique value that we have in this asset. The COMEX copper price yesterday was about 14% higher than the LME price and the project has the potential to benefit from this premium in the future. Now on to Gibraltar where we produced 20,000,000 pounds of copper in the first quarter at a C1 cost of $2.26 per pound. Copper sales of £22,000,000 at a realized price of $4.24 per pound generated adjusted EBITDA of 34,000,000 and cash flows from operations of $56,000,000 Mill throughput ran above design capacity at an average rate just under 88,000 tonnes per day. Head grade of 0.19% was in line with our expectations as a significant portion of the mill feed was from lower grade stockpiles as planned.
However, copper recoveries dropped to 68% as the impact of oxidized ore was more significant than anticipated. So our overall production in the quarter was about 10 lower than we expected. Our original plan had higher grade ore coming from the deeper benches of the connector pit beginning in the second quarter after the initial waste stripping was completed. Unfortunately, challenging mining conditions at the top of the current connector pit pushback has impacted truck and shovel productivities, so we will not get to the higher grades now until the third quarter. Second quarter production is expected to be similar to the first quarter and then we will see a step change of production in the second half with average grades above Gibraltar’s reserve average and these good grades should continue into 2026.
As a result of all this, we expect 2025 production to be approximately £10,000,000 lower than our previous guidance of 120 to £130,000,000. The refurbishment of Gibraltar’s SXTW plant and restart plants have made good progress and we expect first cathode production later in the second quarter. The plan is to produce about three or 4,000,000 pounds of cathode this year. It will be a seasonal operation, but a lot of copper oxide ore has been stacked and we expect the leach pad to run for many years into the future. Last but not least, a brief update on our Yellowhead copper project, which we believe represents an important long term growth option for the company, continuing to work closely with BC government and the Simp First Nation on project permitting initiatives.
The Yellowhead Mine would be a major producer with 180,000,000 pounds of copper production annually over a twenty five year mine life. I would make it the second largest copper mine in Canada. We’re planning to publish a new technical report this summer, which will incorporate updated metal pricing, costing, and then also the new Canadian tax credits that are available for copper mine development and have the potential to positively impact the economics as well. So with that, I’ll pass the call over to Bryce.
Bryce Hamming, Chief Financial Officer, Taseko Mines: Thanks Stuart. Good morning everyone. I’ll provide some additional color on our first quarter financial performance. For the quarter, we sold 22,000,000 pounds of copper at an average realized price of $4.24 per pound, generating revenues of $139,000,000 As we fixed most of our prices with our customers before ships depart, we don’t have a lot of QP price adjustments in the quarter or following the quarter end, which helps us manage copper price volatility. We posted a GAAP net loss of $29,000,000 or $09 per share for the quarter.
Lower quarterly production and higher costs were the main contributors to the loss, as well as a $24,000,000 unrealized derivative and fair value adjustment, and that was from reversing the large mark to market gain shown in December. And this reversal was due to rising copper prices in Q1. On an adjusted basis, after removing this unrealized loss, we posted a net loss of $7,000,000 or $02 loss per share. Total site costs for the quarter were $107,000,000 which is in line with previous quarters and is similar to our expectations on a quarterly run rate for the year. Capitalized stripping costs in the quarter were markedly higher at $38,000,000 This is attributed to the connector pit pushback and higher strip ratio of 4.6:one, which meant processing a much higher percentage of stockpiled material above the pit average strip ratio.
These costs begin to taper in the second quarter and we don’t expect much capitalized stripping in the second half as ore release increases from the connector pit. On a per unit basis costs in the quarter were $2.26 per pound of copper produced. This is lower quarter over quarter and year over year as a result of the higher capitalized stripping costs I mentioned, but also lower TCRCs, which now average to a nominal amount for this year under our new favorable offtake contracts. We also saw increased molybdenum sales volumes and a stronger US dollar quarter, and that was offset by our lower production. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $34,000,000 lower than previous quarters, and again due to the decreased production sales volumes.
At Florence, we incurred a total of $57,000,000 in US dollars of costs in the quarter and most of that was directly related to the commercial facility construction as well as $6,000,000 that was associated with site operations and completion of the rinsing tests, which we are finishing up this quarter. Given we are now 80% complete, construction capital spending will begin to taper down going forward as the peak spending is behind us. To date, have incurred $2.00 $6,000,000 of the construction capital. We continue to expect final capital to be within 15% of our 2023 estimate of $230,000,000 We ended the quarter with $121,000,000 of cash and we have available liquidity at the end of the quarter of $279,000,000 after factoring in our undrawn revolving credit facility. We did draw $25,000,000 against this credit facility after the quarter end to support working capital.
Finally, given volatility in copper, just want to highlight in addition to fixing our prices at the time of shipment, we also have our price protection for the year. It covers the balance of the year and it protects $4 per pound minimum floor place for most of our production for 81,000,000 pounds. These are collars and they’re based on LME prices and they cover the next three quarters and that gives us all the upside up to $5.4 per pound. So with that, I’ll turn it over to the operator. Thank you.
Conference Operator: Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Craig Hutchinson from TD Cowen. Your question please.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just wondering if you could provide some more context on the issues you’re encountering in Gibraltar with respect to the ground conditions. What are some of the issues? Is it just maybe smaller trucks or just any context on that and when do you expect to get through that?
Richard Tremblay, COO, Taseko Mines: Yeah, Craig, Richard here. So the upper benches and connector pit with the pioneering and kind of setup mining were all around the overburden that had to get mined out before we could access down in the caul pit rock, and that overburden proved to be a lot more challenging than was originally envisioned and required a lot of rock to be basically placed in improving ground conditions to allow the equipment to access the dig face as well as the dump properly. We’ve progressed through that and are now seeing our expectations on the mining are kind of being met now, but it has delayed us in Q1.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Okay. And then the issues around the oxidized stockpiles, will that be a factor again in Q2? Should we assume recoveries are going be similar to Q1, both grades and recoveries, I guess?
Richard Tremblay, COO, Taseko Mines: Yeah, and that’s why I think as Stuart indicated, production levels will be comparable to Q1. So that’s been kind of factored into that forward look in the reduction of guidance for the year essentially.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Okay, great. Thanks. And then just on Florence, I know Gibraltar is not impacted by tariffs, but you’re probably importing stuff overseas at Florence. Any sense in terms of what that might have an impact, whether it’s on finishing the capital here or just on costs going forward? What’s most sensitive in terms of costs at Florence with regards to tariffs?
Thanks.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO, Taseko Mines: Yeah. Hi, Craig. It’s Stuart here. In terms of the capital projects, know, there’s no impact from any import tariff. I guess the reason for that is because we’ve got all of our supplies and equipment already inside The US, mostly at mostly already on-site or else a few things at other fabricators in The US.
So that’s not an issue at all. You know, speaking about longer term operating costs, obviously, it’s a pretty volatile environment with the tariff picture still in flux and changing every couple weeks. Wouldn’t want to make any comments about what our impact might be in ’26 or ’27. But yeah, you know, we’ll do it with something we’re just monitoring. Obviously, the biggest input costs or operating costs going forward will be sulfuric acid.
You know, that’s a lot of that is also sourced from within The US. So that’s probably as much as I would say on that at this time.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Okay. Thanks, guys. I’ll jump back in queue.
Conference Operator: Thank you. And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a And we’ve got a follow-up from the line of Craig Hutchinson from TD Cowen. Your question, please.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Any updates on new prosperity? Any kind of plans to kind of any potential breakthroughs there on that project?
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO, Taseko Mines: Yeah, nothing, no real updates beyond what we’ve kind of disclosed that, you know, we’ve made very good progress there. It’s been a constructive dialogue and we think we’re close to a resolution. But no, no, yeah, nothing that I can really say beyond that. But it’s positive, looking positive.
Craig Hutchinson, Analyst, TD Cowen: Okay. All right. Thanks, guys.
Conference Operator: Certainly, thank you. And this does conclude the question and answer session of today’s program. I’d like to hand the program back to Taseko Mines Management.
Stuart McDonald, President and CEO, Taseko Mines: Great, okay, thanks everyone. We’ll wrap up the call here and obviously if there are other questions, feel free to reach out to us and otherwise we will talk to you next quarter. Thank you.
Conference Operator: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
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