Earnings call transcript: Tonies SE Q2 2025 sees 20% revenue growth

Tonies SE reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with a 20% increase in revenue at constant currencies, reaching €177 million for the first half of the year. The company’s impressive performance builds on its 33.13% revenue growth over the last twelve months, according to InvestingPro data. Despite a slight dip in stock price, the company maintained a positive outlook, forecasting over 25% revenue growth for the full year. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 1.63, indicating strong liquidity. The stock fell 4.39% to €5.88 in pre-market trading following the announcement, reflecting investor concerns about certain market challenges.

Key Takeaways

• Tonies SE achieved 20% revenue growth at constant currencies in H1 2025.
• The company reported its first profitable half-year period in North America.
• The stock price declined by 4.39% in pre-market trading.
• Tonies expects over 25% revenue growth for the full year 2025.
• International business now comprises 60% of total revenue.

Company Performance

Tonies SE demonstrated robust performance in Q2 2025, driven by strong international sales and successful product launches. The company expanded its market presence, with international business making up 60% of total revenue. Notably, North America became profitable for the first time in a half-year period, marking a significant milestone in the company’s growth strategy.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: €177 million for H1 2025, a 20% increase at constant currencies.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 2.1%.
• International business share: 60% of total revenue.
• North America profitability achieved for the first time in a half-year period.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Tonies SE’s stock fell by 4.39% in pre-market trading to €5.88. The decline may reflect investor concerns about potential challenges in the market, despite the company’s positive revenue growth and profitability in North America. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock is currently trading close to its Fair Value, with analysts setting price targets between €10.02 and €13.98. The company maintains a strong financial health score of 2.82 (GOOD), suggesting resilient fundamentals despite market volatility. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 8 additional key insights about Tonies SE’s valuation and growth prospects.

Outlook & Guidance

Tonies SE remains optimistic about its growth prospects, projecting more than 25% revenue growth for the full year, reaching approximately €600 million. The company also anticipates a 30% increase in North American revenue. This outlook aligns with InvestingPro data showing a strong 5-year revenue CAGR of 36% and analyst consensus maintaining a bullish 1.2 rating. Discover comprehensive analysis and 1,400+ detailed Pro Research Reports, including Tonies SE’s complete financial health assessment, by subscribing to InvestingPro. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be between 6.5% and 8.5%. Tonies plans to continue its international expansion strategy and has 65% of its planned 2025 product launches still to come.

Executive Commentary

CEO Tobias emphasized the company’s resilience, stating, "At Tonies, we deliver growth in any kind of environment." He also expressed confidence in the company’s future, noting, "Our growth prospects are as strong as ever." Tobias reassured investors, "We are well prepared for the important second half."

Risks and Challenges

• Supply chain diversification: While production has shifted to Vietnam, global supply chain uncertainties remain a concern.
• Market penetration: The US household penetration is currently at 10-12%, compared to 50-60% in the DACH region, presenting a growth challenge.
• Price sensitivity: Despite minimal consumer resistance to price increases, ongoing price hikes could affect demand.
• Competition: Expanding retail presence is crucial as competitors like Lego dominate shelf space.
• Tariff impacts: Although managed effectively, tariffs could impact profitability.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of price increases on consumer demand, which Tonies reported as minimal. Questions also focused on the company’s ability to manage tariff impacts and its confidence in the US market’s growth potential. The company reiterated its strong position and strategic initiatives to navigate these challenges effectively.

Full transcript - Tonies SE (TNIE) Q2 2025:

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Come to Tony’s h one twenty twenty five presentation. My name is Peter Dietz, and I’m from the investor relations team. Today, our CEO, Tobias, and CFO, Jan, will first walk you through our presentation. And afterwards, we invite you to submit your questions via the Zoom q and a function. That’s it from my side, and now over to you, Tobias.

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Thank you, Peter. A warm welcome from my side as well. Thank you all for joining us. Allow me a few personal words to start with. When preparing for this call, I reflected on the first half of the year, and there was one specific day my mind kept returning to, April 2.

Since then, and I think you all agree, the world is different and what we saw back on the day and in the weeks and months thereafter was unprecedented. Some called it liberation day. For us at Tonys, it felt more like uncertainty day. Like many companies, the tariff situation gave us headaches. We set up task forces.

We adjusted planning scenarios. We optimized our supply chain. But would that be enough? At the time, I did not know. Today, four and a half months later, I do.

And I’m proud to say that thanks to our resilient business model, Tony’s has continued to grow almost as if uncertainty day had never happened. We have navigated headwinds. We have overcome turbulence through flexibility, through preparation, and through operational excellence. It has been a total team effort, and I wanna thank all members of the Tony’s team around the world. We’ve achieved strong financials par from Guaranteed at the start, and we have laid the groundwork to deliver on our goals for the second half, a second half that promises to be the most innovative since our company’s foundation.

Jan and I will now take you deeper into these topics. But first, let me start once again with one of my favorite slides. It confirms some very encouraging achievements, underlining that the idea of Tony’s, the product, the connection we have is unfazed by macroeconomic shifts. We are expanding our number one global position dynamically across the world. Second, we are growing our platform.

And third, we have every reason to look ahead with confidence. By the June, we have sold over 9,500,000 Tony boxes and more than a 125,000,000 Tonys. Each of these boxes represents a home in which we are part of everyday life, and each Tony sparks imagination and joy and drives engagement with our platform. So what’s so special about these numbers is not only our reach to more than a 100 countries, but the depth of engagement. On average, children spend more than four and a half hours per week with their Tony box.

That is screen free creative play in today’s world, a rare and valuable connection. And connection is what our relationship with families is all about. It’s reflected in the feedback we receive personally, online, via retailers, but also in our outstanding net promoter score. And that NPS is not just a KPI. It is the voice of parents saying, I trust this for my child, and I want to tell my friends about it.

And such a level of trust is rare, and it is something we really, really treasure. Let us now take a closer look at how these foundations translated into our performance in the first half of the year. In that first half of the year, we continued our growth trajectory, 20% top line growth at constant currencies amounted to group revenues of €177,000,000. Our platform continues to grow even against a challenging macro environment and against external headwinds. Again, our business model has proven to be very resilient.

Let us break it down by region so you can see how each market contributed to this strong performance. Indahvi generated €71,000,000 in revenues on par with the solid prior year period. That was despite foreseen shifts in wholesale order patterns, which I will comment on later. After a softer q one, we turned the momentum with sequential growth in q two and at the same time paved the way for growth with new products. North America again delivered an impressive growth rate of 28% at constant currencies and remains on track to be our largest market.

And that is despite the tariff situation already discussed. Combine that with profitability after six months in The US, we are very positive that we can build further on this momentum. And the rest of the world region performed simply outstanding, growing exceptionally at 78% to €35,000,000. Overall, this is a really, really strong performance across all markets driven by sustained high demand for our products. With regards to profitability, we improved our operational excellence so significantly that we generated a positive margin despite all external challenges we have seen.

Jan will talk about this in more detail. Our adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 2.1%, the EBITDA margin at 1.8%, both slightly lower than last year, but a good reflection of our resilience in a volatile and investment heavy time. In the past two earnings calls, we decided against publishing a guidance due to all the uncertainty caused by tariffs. We were always confident that 2025 will be another year of profitable growth for Tonys though. Given we have more certainty now, we will provide more transparency today, and I will close this presentation with a detailed outlook on the full year.

Now moving away from the financials. On the right hand side of the slide is one highlight I’m most proud of, the continued expansion of our platform. Picture this. In just six months, we sold more than 13,000,000 Tonys. To put this into perspective, that is over 10% of all Tonys ever sold since 2016 achieved in just six months.

This shows the incredible momentum in our content business. It creates stable recurring engagement and long term value for the business. With this high level of unit growth, high repeat engagement, and strong financial performance, let us now turn to the key themes that are driving this momentum even beyond the first half of the year. So looking at our first six months, we made tangible progress across all strategic levers. Let me focus on a few standout areas here.

First, let’s look at our markets, how we prepared to build on our momentum in The US and rest of world, and how we target growth with product innovation in DACH. Then I’ll highlight some product developments. We had great launches in h one. We have a lot in store for the second half, and we have encouraging data that underscores our product’s impact. Of course, we’ll give an update on the current tariff situation to help you understand how we have adapted, how we have managed, and how we have brought the situation under control.

And finally, I want to comment on our leadership setup going forward, which will help us accelerate our international growth further. So let’s start with North America. There, we not only continued our growth momentum, but also prepared for an even stronger second half of the year. Retail partners continue to be key drivers of our ongoing expansion. Today, about 90% of The US toy market is covered by three major players, Target, Walmart, Amazon.

Let me outline how we build up our presence in North America by leveraging these three partnerships. Since 2024, we are we are present in all North American Target stores. That is a 100 market coverage, a long way from our first online listings in 2020 or the seasonal in store presences that we’re following that. Building on this, we will now increase our shelf space by 50% to 12 feet in each store. As we have seen exponential growth with shelf space expansion in the past, This will accelerate revenue growth in the second half of the year, period.

At Walmart, a big change is underway. In q three, so right now, Tony’s is moving from the consumer electronics section into the toy section. And I have to tell you, this is one of the very rare category changes Walmart has ever made for an external partner. It puts us right where parents and kids are browsing for toys, increasing our visibility, increasing sales velocity, increasing brand relevance ahead of the holiday season. And on Amazon, which is direct to customer consumer for us, we continue to deliver on special commercial moments.

This Prime Day, we sold 50% more units compared compared to the previous Prime Day, driven by doubling the numbers of Tonys sold. This underscores our momentum and Tonys’ popularity in a very competitive market environment. Amazon remains not only our high volume sales channel, but also a very critical source of insights to react fast to consumer trends. So across all those three partners, we have prepared for reach, for visibility, for conversion. Combined with a strong organizational and logistics setup, this gives us a powerful engine for q four.

And particularly in lights of tariffs, let me highlight. All of these partnerships evolving to this stage are clear, undisputable signs of confidence of all major retailers in our largest market. You do not capture shelf space from competition like that. You do not move categories like that. You do not deliver d two c moments like that if Tonys were at risks by tariffs.

And I would even go further than that. We might as well emerge as a general winner from this situation. So our engine has proven very resilient in times of uncertainty. Our US business has been largely untouched by tariffs effects. This gives us even more confidence that we are well positioned to deliver strong growth in The US for the remainder of this year, but also in the midterm.

Turning to our home market DACH, our blueprint for profitability and a key contributor to our bottom line. In the first half of the year, our DACH business recorded an EBITDA margin of 16.5%. Put differently, our profitability in DACH fuels our organic investments in other markets. Our goal is to continue growing our top line here as well. In q two, we saw this picking up as a result of constantly delivering innovation.

The DACH market is hungry for it, as shown by the great success of Clever Tonys for older kids last year. At the end of q two this year, we launched our BookTonies in DACH. BookTonies are long form audiobooks that increase engagement with older target groups, a key factor to grow in developed markets. In addition, booktonies have a shorter development time. But most important, just like clevertonies, they have hit a nerve in the market.

We see it in conversations with retail partners, and we observe it in usage data. Engaging with kids above five extends the life cycle of our platform in households and unlock significant new growth potential. BookTony’s worked like a charm in this regard. 53% of activations come from households with children over five. In addition, the listening behavior reflects our approach to deepen engagement.

Given the longer content, the average playtime session increases with around forty two minutes. We’re excited to see the impact on weekly average playtime as we bring more booked Tonys to the market. After launching 11 SKUs in the first half of the year, we expect our BookTony portfolio to grow to around 20 SKUs by the year end. So to summarize, DAC is highly profitable, and DAC still has a great potential for growth. Innovation remains a key driver here.

We have seen the success of Clevertonies. We are seeing the hunger for new content of our own IPs. Now we are off to a good start with Booktonies, and that gives us confidence for all that is up next. And then I alluded to it, our fastest growth in 2025 came from what we call rest of world. And while we expected that, I must say I am we are stunned with the market moving impact we have seen.

In Australia and New Zealand, this momentum from our 2024 market launch is continuing into 2025. And the general remark here, after two consecutive years of market decline, the overall toy industry in Australia grew by 7% in h one, and our Tony box data set was the number one item in the entire toys category in q two. We take pride in our innovation power and in the fact that the Tony box has opened up interactive audio entertainment, a completely new category for families. But seeing how vitalizing our concept can be for an entire market, for an entire industry is a fantastic motivator going forward. In France, the flywheel effect of our business is also clearly visible.

I spoke about reaching a tipping point last quarter. Now we see the acceleration after Tony box sales nearly doubled year on year in the first half. Tony’s, so the figurine sales grew even faster, more than two and a half times compared to Nasty. So once a household owns a box, this the behavior we see is subscription like, steadily buying a collection over time. We’ve seen that kind of dynamic continue in other markets, making France another territory for years of sustained growth to come.

These results prove that our brand resonates quickly with families even in highly competitive markets such as France. The combination of strong global product market fit, effective marketing, and growing retail partnerships gives us confidence in the scalability of our model across new geographies. But very importantly, our growth story is not just about entering new markets. It is also about the positive impact we create for the next generation. This is why we do what we do.

With our products, we help foster awareness, inspire imagination, and reduce screen time. This is a topic that is very close to my heart. In 2024, we published our first sustainability report reflecting this holistic approach. And given our focus, we go beyond traditional ESG categories to include our mission of creating a positive impact for children’s development and well-being. That is why our product design, our content choices, and our business decisions are guided by responsibility for the planet, for the people, and for the families who use Tonys every day.

For us, sustainability means making sure technology serves children, supporting their growth, encouraging their creativity. Latest research is backing the success of our con of our concept. We just received results from studies showing that children who listened to a Tony box scored 32% higher in emergent literacy compared to those who did not. And they were also significantly less likely to exceed one hour of daily screen time. Tonys is more than just entertainment.

It’s a platform that helps children listen, learn, and grow in a responsible way while giving parents confidence and peace of mind. Our positive impact is amplified by the strength of our content and innovation pipeline. This is a really important part of our presentation today. The 2025 already brought a rich mix of launches, but there’s more, much more to come in the weeks and months ahead. From January to June, we delivered a balanced portfolio of new launches catering to both our loyal Tony box households and to new customer segments like the BookTonys.

Let me mention some highlights. We grew our Tony’s originals portfolio and extended popular franchises keeping beloved characters front and center while driving repeat purchases. As I said, in DACH, we launched booktons. In The US, the much anticipated launch of miss Rachel strengthened our preschool portfolio and exceeded our expectations. The buzz we created in communities and on social media drove beyond anything we thought we could do.

The best part with half a year in the books, we are only one third of the way through our planned twenty twenty five launches. These include Tonys launching live with movie stars and new beloved franchises. So with roughly 65% of our launches still to come, you can expect great things in the month ahead. And on top of our strong content pipeline, we have planned something very special, something we have also allocated significant resources to in the first half. So let me assure you it’s going to be really, really exciting.

One thing maybe less exciting, but a topic we needed to address over the past month, tariffs. We expect them to remain a relevant topic as the situation will likely stick around for the foreseeable future. But at Tonys, we’ve made good progress since April 2, and we have the situation under control. We now have better visibility on tariff levels through the 2025 and beyond. We can plan ahead with confidence and make informed sourcing and pricing decisions well in advance.

As you will hear later, this also puts us in the position to give a clear, reliable guidance to the market for the year. Across our key sourcing countries, tariff agreements have been announced or are at least stable in the case of China. The rates we see for China, Vietnam, Tunisia, and Bosnia are all lower than the maximum tariff rates previously discussed. In addition, we started diversifying our supply chain well before April 2. I’ve said this many, many times.

We are very well prepared to manage and adapt the situation. The head start with our supply chain help as does agility within our organization. We have a toolbox at hand that proved and continues to prove effective. Our diversified supply chain for Tony boxes, figurines, and accessories allows us to flexibly shift volumes across jurisdictions. Our position as a category creator and leader gives us the ability to set prices appropriately without losing competitiveness.

Healthy cash reserves and a new syndicated loan gives us room to maneuver. Jan will come to this later. And ongoing improvements in unit economics together with strong partnerships help us protect margins. In short, tariffs might be here to stay. They do have an impact on the way we do business, and we would clearly prefer not to have them.

But we are well prepared, and we do not expect them to derail our overall growth or our execution plans. Let us look maybe closer at two of the examples I mentioned. First, our diversified sourcing strategy. We prepared a shift of Tony box production capacities to Vietnam well before the current tariff situation. That is why we were able to get it up and running at full capacity as of April 1, one day before the initial announcement tariffs.

This move enabled us to shift capacities without losing any degree of productivity. The site in Vietnam combines high technical capacity with the ability to produce Tony boxes at scale. By the 2025, by the end of this year, it will have the potential to produce over 1,800,000 units annually. And by the July 2025 alone, we had already shipped more than 330,000 TONY boxes from Vietnam to The US. All this while operating the same efficiency, at the same unit cost, and at the same quality standards that we know from other sites, for example, China.

This gives us flexibility to shift volumes between sites to reduce dependency on any single country and to navigate tariffs more effectively. Next slide. Another important lever in our toolbox is our pricing power. As the category creator and market leader in a very resilient business, we are able to set prices in a way that reflects the value we deliver without losing customer trust or market share. In The US, we did that as of May 1, Tony figurine prices by approximately $2 on average.

We have done that, and as of now, two months in, we see no substantial impact. This is what pricing power looks like when prices are grounded in the value we deliver. Moving into the next chapter of our journey. We have strengthened our management board with two outstanding leaders who bring the right mix of experience, energy, and passion for our mission. Our new setup reflects our increasingly international footprint as well as our growth ambitions.

While I can tell you we will miss Jan dearly going forward, I am also happy we conducted a thorough succession planning for his role as CFO. I look forward to welcoming Hans Joerg Muller as our new CFO starting September 1. With more than twenty years in senior leadership across entertainment and consumer goods at Netflix, Electronic Arts, and Procter and Gamble. He combines deep financial expertise with a strong track record in scaling global brands, and this will help us steer Tony’s through our next growth phase with the right balance of ambition and financial discipline. I’m equally happy that Christophe Frazee joined our management board as first chief revenue officer effective July 1.

A familiar face to some of you, Christophe has been with Tonys for years and successfully built our North American business from the ground up as general manager. He will remain located in The US, but now oversee a global function to drive growth across all channels and markets. With his profile as a proven entrepreneur and with more than fifteen years in business building roles, he is perfectly equipped to do that and complements our setup ideally. So with Ginny as CXO, Hans Joerg as CFO, and Christoph as CRO, next to me on the board, we now have a truly cross functional leadership team based both in Germany and The US, combining global experience, deep expertise, and a shared passion to take Tony’s to the next level together. And before we move on, there’s one additional highlight I would like to share with you.

Patrick Fassbender, Tony’s cofounder, has rejoined Tony’s as a member of our supervisory board. This happened as planned after completing his cool down period. All of you most of you remember, more than ten years ago, Patrick together with Markus Stahl came up with the original ideas for Tony’s and created the foundation for the company and brand we know today. His return brings not only his deep product and brand expertise, but also the creative vision and passion that have been at the heart of Tony’s since the very beginning. I would now like to hand over to Jan for a deep dive into the financials.

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Yes. Good morning, everyone, also from my side. I’m very happy to take you through the highlights, of h one from the financial side. And, as Tobias already said, it’s been a dynamic first half of the year, but it’s been a really good one for Tony’s. It is actually coming in as exactly as we expected it to be, and there are several pretty noteworthy succession, successes we have celebrated.

I’ll come to that in a minute. And what makes me very, very happy if I look at the top line is that we see continued 20% year over year growth, which is a stable expression of a successful international product expansion. And you can see it as the share of international business has now increased again year over year to 60%, and our international expansion strategy is clearly working. And, also, you see a lot of dynamic growth in all regions. I’ll speak to that in a minute because there were some q one effects that actually have turned around.

Q one and q two, that is back on a growth track. And I think that is exciting for some of you who had questions on that effect that we explained in q one. Also, we are on comparable profitability levels versus our prior year. That means we’re growing in hyper space profitably. And our adjusted EBITDA is coming in at 2.1 EBITDA and 1.8% margin.

And what makes me very excited about it is that North America has turned profitable on a segment reporting view for the first time in a half year period. It just shows that our business model is profitable and that we are successful in replicating that business model in our international expansion. And the main achievements on the profitability side, what you will see is coming from a contribution margin. I’ll speak to that in a minute. And I think some interesting effects to observe there as well.

On the cash side, I feel very, very confident. We were at €39,000,000 of cash We had not used or just to a neglectable level our available credit facilities, so that means our cash available with a €121,000,000 is a very solid foundation. And Tobias said it before, also in these dynamic tariff environments, I think it’s testament to us being able to secure the business against potential macroeconomic volatility, but also, most importantly, to finance everything that we wanna finance for our q four Christmas business. I’ll move on and, discuss with you now the management p and l, which I think is a pretty strong h 01/2025.

On the left hand side, you see the 2025 numbers, 24 next to it, and then the change in deviation. So what’s probably most noteworthy if we stay on h one is an incredible improvement of the contribution profit. So the margin is up 5.6 percentage points. And you probably say, wow. What has been the driver behind that?

Well, it’s several things. It’s mix effect as always. Right? But the most important things are we have optimized our procurement and sourcing. So we have not only prepared for Terifest Tobiaset, we have also executed some of those.

We have important mix effects in our product mix. Please always remember we’re more profitable on the Tonys, on the attached on the blades in our business model, and you’ll see it in product mix. And this is driving up the contribution margin. And you can see those effects then being supported by better licensing rate. Right hand side there, if you look below the 3.6, the PPs, you see fulfillment is better year over year.

There are several of those mix effects in, but most importantly, it’s better sourcing and also product mix. And then you see some effects below the contribution modeling to EBITDA, which tells you that we’ve probably been investing. We have been investing in product and international growth. And you can see that with the marketing expenditures slightly increasing versus prior period and similarly on the s g and a side. You see it in personnel, but a little bit more in the on the OpEx side.

And this also includes certain, of course, mitigation costs for tariff effects. But again, I said it before, this p and l is strong. We are very happy with it, and it is coming in as expected. I would like to run now through, a bit of a dissection of the growth. The growth is coming essentially from our international expansion.

And I particularly wanna spend time on the DACH effect because some of you have discussed it with me also in individual calls or when we were on the road. DACH was negative in q one. You’ll see in a minute it’s positive again in q two. Q one negative effect in DACH has been the result of an extremely strong q four twenty twenty four. So big orders have been on a cutoff, fallen into the q four of or this December period of 2024.

So overall, we’re very, very happy. That is not in decline. Even if you look on it, it’s phasing that needs to be considered and baseline effects. And if I then look at North America and Tobias call it out also rest of the world, I see super, super strong growth rate. Very, very healthy behavior.

Please remember we announced last year round that we’re transitioning into expanded, shelf space and then setting date with major retail partners in The US. So there’s even a strong baseline in The US versus last year, and we’re doing well. And it results, as I said, in strong increase in the share of our international business to 60%. If you now look on the next slide on the product mix, you would see effects here. So if you look on Tony boxes and Tony’s, this is the most noteworthy thing to consider.

I spoke about our contribution margin, and I said that the contribution margin with over 40% is impacted by product mix. We have been selling, relatively speaking, more Tonys this half year one versus the prior year and a little less boxes. This is a good sign, not a bad sign. Our platform is healthy. Consumer demand is healthy.

But we’ve just seen for some phasing effects here stronger demand on the Tonys side, and this is something you should take as a good sign. I personally believe it’s actually super exciting. If you see a contribution margin of above 40%, you probably remember that we guided during our IPO to a target contribution margin of about about 40%, above 40%. You see it again in this h one. So that means we are on track.

We’re moving towards our midterm guidance, and I think that is something very positive to take away. I spoke also about q two and that that is back on track. On the next slide, you’ll see that here, left hand side, that plus 1%, we are growing. It’s not as much so that we can cover the q one effect, But overall, I think I’ve made sufficient eluding alluding or explanation why we’re very relaxed about the DaaS situation for the full year and the remainder to come. With this, I wanna move on one more slide and look at the segment reporting.

Segment reporting here, I spoke to it. I said it’s a very strong profitability profile because we have increased profitability in all segments. DACH, slightly behind, but North America, first time profitable. Rest of world, better. You see the stronger contribution margin effect coming through if you compare it to prior year levels.

And there might be some question why DACH is in, having a bit lower contribution, it’s mix effects. It’s investments effects. It’s nothing that gives me any concerns. It’s just an interpretation, I would say, of the h one figures as well. So, overall, we are we are, very, very confident here.

So that shows you that the business model works. We have a strong h one, which puts us in a good position to continue our spree and, strategy execution in the second half of the year. Let’s move on. EBITDA, given we have some effects, I wanna spend some time again walking you through the bridge. So you see the strong COGS improvement year over year.

As I said, we we have reduced purchase prices for all of our products, so successful in sourcing. We have optimized our logistics cost. We have certain effects from a weaker US dollar as we’re sourcing there, and most importantly, also product and channel mix effects. Licensing costs coming in better, they can always be depending on product mix, a few, ups and downs in this range, so that is good news. Fulfillment costs, we have been good at optimizing versus prior year.

You see that marketing increased versus prior year. I spoke to that. We’ve taken deliberate decisions to invest into international and product expansion, and that’s also how we should interpret personnel costs and OpEx cost to some extent. OpEx includes, in addition, mitigation costs for the supply chain and tariff situation, and that is something you might even wanna think as, partially one off. But overall, for the full year, we are we are we believe we are in a very, very good position now to mitigate to the best possible extent the effects from tariffs that Tobias was alluding to.

Final slide item for you today is on the cash position. Comparison here as well as the full year of 2024, of course. You can see that operating cash flow with the typical seasonality effects, investing and financing as well, some of it its effects in there. That’s, of of course, not surprising. But I think the most noteworthy point is that if you compare the year over year cash position, in last year’s h one, we reported an effective cash position.

So cash on balance sheet and on account plus available credit lines of €40,000,000 whilst we’re now at a 120. And I think that gives me a lot of reassurance that we’re in a good position for the remainder of the year. As my sides are coming to an end, I also just wanna take one personal note. And, as you know, I’ve taken the decision to leave Tony’s, and my tenure is coming to an end by August. I’d like to take the opportunity to to say thank you to everyone on this call and beyond for the great collaboration, our shareholders, analyst partners.

It’s been a pleasure working with you. I wanna thank also the whole supervisory board, our founders, the management board colleagues, and all Tony’s. It’s always been an honor and a pleasure to work as Tony’s. I’m really, really excited about Tony’s, and I’m sure that with Hans Joerg, there’s a great successor in place. I’ll still be around for the company, but still wanted to say thank you to everyone.

It’s been a pleasure. And with this, back to Tobias and the outlook for the year.

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Thank you, Jan, for giving us a great overview of the first half twenty twenty five results and the progress we’ve made this year. And thank you for all the great contributions as Tony, CFO over the last years. You have been a fantastic business partner and also friend to work with. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we now have greater clarity on key factors, and this gives us a stronger foundation for our planning and allows us to move forward with confidence. Building on a strong first half, let me take you through our guidance for the full year and how we see our profitable growth story continuing in 2025.

So for the full year 2025, we expect group revenue to grow by more than 25% year over year in constant currency, taking us above €600,000,000,000 This reflects continued strong demand across all markets and all channels. In North America, we forecast revenue growth of more than 30% year over year in constant currency. And building on our momentum and the significant retail and brand presence we have established. We expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to come in between 6.58.5%, achieving profitability similar or even above last year in this unprecedented environment. That will be a strong result of efficiency gains that help us absorb tariff effects for 2025 and extraordinary investments in product, in content, and in market expansion.

Some of these investments will impact the second half of the year. A half year that features an incredibly strong innovation pipeline, as I alluded to earlier, which will only accelerate the fantastic momentum on our of our communities around the world. The contribution of this is reflected in these target. So let me see say very clearly. We are in a great position.

Over the past years, we have continuously delivered on our goals of high growth and lately profitable growth. Our growth prospects are as strong as ever, and I’m very confident this will only improve in the coming month. Who would have thought that on April 2? So stay tuned for the next chapters of our journey. We are now looking forward to your questions, Peter.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Thank you, Tobias. Thank you, Jan. Let us now begin with the q and a session. As always, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please post them via the q and a function. Let me check.

And we have a very interesting question already. It is, do you have any comments on the rumors regarding a new t v two box and the launching date, September 15? Can you give further inform informations about the innovation pipeline in h two?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Yeah. I’m very happy to take this one. And I think I hinted a couple times throughout the presentation, and I’ve started to hint, I believe, three or four quarterly calls, in the past. So in general, please do understand that we do not comment on any of market rumors. But what we can say and what we just presented in our call is that Tony’s has a very sustainable and impressive innovation pipeline.

And this innovation pipeline covers many aspects of our product. It covers all what we call here internally above the box innovations, and I talked about Clever Tonys. I talked about Book Tonys that we brought out. We have more very, very interesting and completely new Tony Tony innovations above the box innovation that will come up. But we also will continue to work on the box level innovation, and, there is something exciting coming up in the second half of the year, and I can’t wait for basically showing it to all of you, and I will show it to all of you when it’s time.

But that time has not quite yet come. I hope you understand that.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Oh, we collected many more questions. The next one is, why is the margin spread in your guidance still so big? What uncertainties do you still see for h two? What are the upside or potential downside risks?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Great question. So we delivered on our promises since the IPO. I’ve said this many times. I’ve said it again on this call. And very clearly, this is also our ambition for 2025, and it was also leading us in our guidance.

Also, picture of The US tariffs has become much, much clearer. We still face some general geopolitical uncertainties that we need to deal with. I think I I said it in April, in our latest call, without The US tariff turbulences, we would have given a guidance in the earning range between nine and eleven. So you see that 2% margin spread that we have now between 6.58.5% is pretty much what we would have actually shown under normal circumstances. And as we will continue to, obviously, normal circumstances in the years to come, there will be guidance margins or this margin spread that we can potentially continue to expect.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: And the next one, the topic was already addressed, but it asked for more details. The number of Tony boxes seems to have come down in h one. Is this a general saturation effect? And how will you address this?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: So let me say this once and again very clearly, nothing to worry at all. This is mostly to autophasing effects. We expect a much stronger h two with regards to Tony boxes, but obviously also, Tony’s. And this is something that has can be explained with those special effects, but, more to come on this very, very soon. I think it will become very, very clear very soon.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: K. The next one is regarding the consumer restraints in The US. How do you see the risk of consumer strength there, especially for Christmas sales in view of possible economic downturns?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Yeah. Great question. And I think I also touched on this when I was talking about The US and our recent development in The US. From all what we see, we do not have any reasons to expect customer restraints or cooling down customer sentiment for this Christmas season, neither in The US, actually, nor in the rest of the Tony slot. We here strongly believe that parents will always continue to focus on their kids’ happiness, especially regarding Christmas, and that they will continue to invest and buy for their kids.

It’s a very, very resilient category. So, another proof point, as I said, for Tony’s potentially decoupling even from economic varies in The US that maybe there or over maybe looming overall is that we only have seen very negligible volume effects observed post price increases on selected of our Tonys that I referred to on May 1. So we’ve been able in the past and even this year to increase prices without notable volume effects.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Thanks, Tobias. And it would be a shame if you wouldn’t have any question for Jan in this final call. So I think this looks like a good one for you. Your contribution margin looks exceptional. What is your full year expectation?

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Thank you that that you’re also thinking about me this call. Yes. Contribution margin, and I tried to make that point earlier. So, what you see here is that we have a higher share of Tonys. And you also know, for those of you who track us, that the second half of the year and especially q four is typically Tony box time.

That’s where the majority of the people get into the system. So as a result, you should expect that the contribution margin drops. It should drop by product mix, but there’s also secondary effect to be taken into consideration. The tariffs set by the US administration, they have come into effect in April. And all of the inventory that we’re bringing into the country for the Christmas business is, only starting to sell through the second half of the year.

So tariff effects also will only materialize in the second half. So please expect the contribution margin to drop. I really love to look at this h one because it tells me that whatever Tony’s has promised, and that was over 40% contribution margin, is real. It’s inherent in the business model. And I think that’s something very, very exciting that I also do see in the segment reporting.

But for the full year, this, 42% will, of course, drop, also below the 40.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. Next one. And there are two questions which seem to be quite similar. Can you kindly elaborate on the increase of other expenses which are way above the revenue growth? How much of this growth is in line with the revenue growth, and what are onetime effects?

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Yes. I think there’s another one also coming around operating expenses, etcetera. I tried to explain that in the presentation. We have a particular effect here as we’ve taken deliberate decisions to invest into product and international expansion, and that is what you should should interpret those numbers. And I think that is an important one to consider.

We we will, of course, see operating leverage coming through in the second half of the year, but there’s always this bit of a pre invest. There’s, of course, a small FX effect, etcetera. But, overall, this is the main explanation for for for this development.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. Next question is regarding margin development. In North America, contribution margin is almost identical to DACH, yet EBITDA margin is only 1% versus 16% at DACH. Is this big gap simply due to higher fixed cost at the scaling phase or something more structural and it continues? And should we expect North America EBITDA margins to convert towards staff levels as revenue scales?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Great question. Thank you. I’ll take it. Let me just generally say, in The US, you do have higher fixed costs, but but also much higher revenue potential. The US is by far not as grown up, let’s say, as the DACH market.

There’s more operating leverage to be expected in the next years. Just to give you a number that I always like to refer to, we’re about, let’s say, 50 to 60%, with regards to household penetration in the DACH region in our targeted age group. That same number in The US is more like 10 to 12. So you see the the runway we still have ahead of us in The US despite the fact that The US is now our biggest market. So you can expect more growth, and we’re going to invest in more growth, in more profitable growth in The US.

I think the second part, we’ve never and will not guide target profitability in North America. Maybe we do this at a later point, for example, at the Capital Market Days. But what we said and what we are doing is that we are replicating the DACH blueprint across regions, and North America is obviously a very important region. So you will see North America, growing in profitability. But, please understand that at this very moment, I won’t comment on an exact profitability target.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. And the next one we have is regarding the payroll growth. Is it in line is in line with the revenue growth? Where did most of the hiring happen?

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Looks like a CFO question to me. Yeah. I will take it. So hiring happened across the group. So you know us.

We are investing into international growth. You can expect that hiring and investment happened in our international markets. That also includes, of course, growing The US business. That includes investing into capabilities. You have seen that we have brought on board Ginny last year on the management board level, etcetera.

So with the growing size of the business, we’re also building capabilities and bring exciting talent to Tony’s to sustain our further journey. And we do so similarly also on the functions. So the functions also gets strengthening, as I mentioned, the genius area in the product and operations, etcetera, etcetera. So this is across the board, and I think it’s a healthy development to do this. We typically have a bit of a preloading in h one.

You’ll always see more leverage on the personnel cost side in the second half of the year. So this is how this trend should be read and hope that makes sense to you.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: And there’s another one in this direction which asks for more details. Can you please it’s also for Jan. Can you please elaborate on your personal expenses and discuss plus 15% headcount versus plus 27% personal expenses despite strong euro? I think you addressed this already.

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Yeah. Again, it’s we’re also investing into senior talent, and that comes with all the growth. You know that. So we’re making sure that our organization grows at the same pace and capability development as the business does. I think it’s a very healthy and good development.

And, again, I wanna refer to the h one, h two full year then leveraging effect. That’s probably also something that that that explains then figures on a full year basis.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. And a detailed question regarding the tariffs. Given some clarity around tariffs, when no. Sorry, Bernard. Did you did you split the IP software from the physical structure as according to my understanding, IP software might be tariff free?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Wow. That is a an expert question. Tariffs on me. Yes. It’s split.

IP, so payments made to licenses, is not subjected by tariffs. You’re completely right.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. That’s why I mixed it up. With the next question, given some clarity around tariffs, when do you expect to hold your Capital Markets Day you postponed in May?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Yeah. That’s I expected that question, and it’s it’s absolutely rightful. We we didn’t wanna do it in May because of the situation we’re in, not having given a guidance, not really having clarity on tariffs, which has clearly changed by now. We’ll inform you as soon, as you’re feeling confident to lock in a specific date. But from all I can see right now and what I would find and deem the right time is probably 2026 after we are reporting our 2025 full year earnings.

So that seems to be a good timing to me, but please stay tuned. We will inform you as soon as we have a specific date to announce.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: So there are two more regarding price increases in The US. One is, could you talk about the magnitude of price increases, more general question, and the consumer reaction in it? I think it was partially addressed in the presentation. And how much were box prices increased?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: So we have adjusted pricing, in parts in our classic Tony’s lineup. That’s what I refer to effective May 1 from, some $17.99 to $19.90. And in The US specifically, I don’t know if all of you know, we have three price categories. We also reduced prices in the lowest tier to $9.99. So we have we continue to have three price points and the higher price point, which is, by the way, also the one where we have most of the classic content tonies, is the one that we increased from $17.99 to $19.99.

We have clearly discussed this with our partners, and they understood the rationale behind it. And as I said, we have only temp seen if if only we’ve seen temporary volume effects, but, clearly, we outgrew this very, very, very quickly. We have kept prices on Tony boxes. We have kept prices on the BookTonys, on CleverTonys, and we will obviously continue to drive profitable growth within the pricing structure that we currently have.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: I think we have time for two more questions. How many point of sales do you currently have in The US? Idea is to go with importance of marked target in Walmart.

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Yeah. I’ll happy to take this one as well. I please understand. I’ll I’ll I’ll I feel more confident and happy to speak about this a bit more broadly, but you can definitely expect us to grow our footprint again. We are currently selling at the 2024, that’s at least the latest number I have in mind, in around a little bit over 9,000 of sales in The US.

And for reference, Target has about 1,750 stores, and we are selling in all of those 750 stores. Target and Walmart are key channels for us as is the wider industry. I mean, US retail is clearly more concentrated than we are used to see this in Germany or in Europe, but we have plenty of further growth potential in US retail. There’s quite a few, significant, retailers, that we’re are just about to enter. We are not yet in, but we’re having final discussions to enter.

So we’ll, see that we will, have more retailers joining our ecosystem. We’re expanding point of sales. We’re growing shelf space. Super, super important. This is this magic formula I’m always referring to.

It’s point of sales times shelf space times velocity, that is literally defining wholesale success. So more point of sales, more shelf space, and then all of this, we’ll see sales productivity or velocity going up. Just to give you one last hint here, and then I think it is a very good comparison also for us and a good aspiration. I said we’re in target. We are growing from eight feet to 12 feet this year, 50% growth in shelf space.

Lego in target has 72 feet. We will have 12. Lego has 72. We have examples of retailers in Europe, Germany, that also now have 72 feet and even more reserved for Tonys. I’m not saying we’ll get there, but I’m saying we’ve done it and we’ve proven it in other markets.

The US very much follows other markets. We are at 12 feet right now. LEGO has 72 feet, so there’s ample room for growth.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Okay. We have two quick question we can combine for Jan, I think. One is regarding the DACH return to growth. Do you expect DACH to return to growth for the full year? This is the first part.

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Yes. Clear. Yes. I said it before. We believe that q one was just phasing a baseline effect as explained, so that should grow on a full year basis.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Similar question regarding The US. Okay.

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Yeah. Absolutely. Also US. I see the question here, weaker rose. Is that because there was something weak?

No. Please always consider there’s baseline effects. Last year was a strong increase in in the second half of the year. We are fully confident that US is growing, and that was also implied in our guidance. You have seen us giving a very ambitious guidance for the North American market, so I think we should should be good.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: And two final quick questions for Tobias. You have managed to drive COGS improvement, which you said was due to negotiation low prices from suppliers. Is this something that might normalize higher in due course or will be ongoing?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Great question. And and I think in previous calls, I’ve said since I started eighteen months ago, we have been investing significantly in also our capabilities and capacities to set up better processes for us to scale efficiently here at Tony’s. This is a direct outcome of what we have achieved over the investments we’ve done over the last, eighteen plus months. So to answer your specific question, the purchases purchase prices that we negotiated with our suppliers are here to stay. They’re sustainable, and we expect them to obviously even go down further as we continue to grow in scale.

So we continue with negotiations. We continue to work with our suppliers. We continue to obviously also work on supplier footprint, as I had mentioned, and obviously, the diversity in our supply chain. Additionally, we have also negotiated inbound transportation logistic contracts with better pricing and another effect, obviously, that you see us investing in this function.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Here we go for the last question. Regarding the margin guidance for ’25 is lower as your total guidance after the first quarter without tariffs. Is the difference the tariffs consumer confidence?

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: It’s a combination. It’s a combination of ethics effects and partly not mitigatable tariff costs, where we chose not to pass on the cost with full effect. And now you might ask why if you just had said that we’re have such a resilient pricing power, which we do have, but we’re making very selected and and and very educated decisions on where and how we wanna increase prices. And let’s not forget, we are building an ecosystem. We’re expanding boxes usually in the second half of the year around these commercial moments, like Friday, Cyber Monday, and then Christmas.

And then this ever increasing, ever growing ecosystems of boxes will then be followed with subscription like Tony’s figurine sales that are obviously at a much, much higher margin profile than the boxes. And this is why it here and there makes sense to invest and potentially not pass on fully any tariff costs, and, and then you can expect a much higher return in the years to come. That’s a bit the idea behind it. So let me say it again. Consumer sentiment looks very healthy.

We will now, obviously, see all this unfolding in H2. We will see a much higher box sale in H2 than we’ve seen in H1. That’s a typical thing that will potentially be multiplied this year with an extra effect that I’ve alluded to. And, in the years to come, then all those additional boxes that we are selling all over the world will then have the Tony’s figurine sales effect that we’ve seen also in the past.

Peter Dietz, Investor Relations, Tonies: Great. Thank you very much. This wraps up our q and a session. Thanks for your fantastic interest and the great questions. And feel free to ask additional questions.

We are all available afterwards. And for the wrap up of the whole presentation, I hand over back to to BS for his key takeaways of today’s call.

Tobias, CEO, Tonies: Yeah. Thank you. I agree, Peter. Thank you for the great questions, and this this really engaging discussion today. And as a good tradition here at in our Tony’s presentation, before we wrap up, I would like to briefly revisit the five key takeaways that have, defined our first half in 2025 and that also set the stage for the remainder of the year.

So looking at our results in the 2025, we performed in line with our expectations going into the year, but we even exceeded our expectations after April 2. We invested in our growth and still increased revenues considerably at profitable levels. Our international footprint grows by the hour. And that is not just about hitting numbers, it is a proof that our strategy is working, that our platform has incredible global product market fit, and that we are executing with discipline even in challenging times. At Tony’s, we deliver growth in any kind of environment, and a good reason for that lies in takeaway number two.

Thanks to our uniquely resilient profile, we are seeing strong demand no matter the circumstance. We have a product that families continue to choose and love. Our brand resonates deeply, meets a genuine need, and earns the trust of parents in their homes. On tariffs, I can say with confidence that we have done our homework and we have the situation under control. The sourcing flexibility we have built over years, including the planned expansion to Vietnam, is paying off.

This not just risk management, it’s a strategic advantage that lets us grow with stability. Our guidance is a statement of confidence in our long term growth story. On the foundation of a product which families love, it reflects our organizational ability to navigate challenges, to capture opportunities, and to keep scaling internationally while maintaining profitability even in times of macroeconomic headwinds. And with Ginny, Hans Joerg, Christoph on board, we now have a leadership team anchored in both Germany and The US, uniting global experience, deep functional experience and expertise, and a shared commitment to driving Tony’s next chapter of growth. We are proud of what the team has achieved.

We are well prepared for the important second half and really very excited about what lies ahead. Thank you all for your trust, for your continued interest, and for joining us today. Until next time.

Jan, CFO, Tonies: Thank you.

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