Earnings call transcript: USA Rare Earth Q2 2025 misses EPS, stock rebounds

USA Rare Earth Inc. reported its Q2 2025 earnings, revealing a larger-than-expected loss per share. The company posted an adjusted net loss of $0.08 per share, missing the forecasted loss of $0.06 per share by 33.33%. Despite this miss, the stock rebounded in aftermarket trading, rising 3.32% to $16.80 after closing down 5.04% at $16.26. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a market capitalization of $1.54 billion and trades at a P/E ratio of 81.05, indicating investors’ high growth expectations.

Key Takeaways

• USA Rare Earth’s EPS fell short of expectations, missing by 33.33%.
• The stock price dropped 5.04% during regular trading but gained 3.32% in aftermarket trading.
• The company is advancing its rare earth supply chain and magnet production initiatives.
• U.S. government support for domestic rare earth development presents growth opportunities.
• High capital expenditures and cash burn remain concerns.

Company Performance

USA Rare Earth reported an operating loss of $8.8 million for Q2 2025, with a net loss of $142.5 million, or $1.54 per share. Despite financial challenges, the company is making strides in developing a fully integrated rare earth supply chain, positioning itself as a leader outside of China. The company plans to produce 200-500 metric tons of neo magnets in 2026, targeting significant market demand. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a healthy financial position with a current ratio of 3.52, indicating strong liquidity to fund its growth initiatives. Get access to 12 additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive analysis with an InvestingPro subscription.

Financial Highlights

• Cash position: $128.1 million as of August 7, 2025
• Operating loss: $8.8 million in Q2 2025
• Net loss: $142.5 million ($1.54 per share)
• Adjusted net loss: $7.8 million ($0.08 per share)
• Capital expenditures: $6.3 million
• Raised $22 million from warrant exercises

Earnings vs. Forecast

The company reported an adjusted net loss of $0.08 per share, missing the forecasted loss of $0.06 per share by 33.33%. This miss reflects financial pressures and operational challenges as USA Rare Earth invests heavily in its supply chain and production capabilities.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, USA Rare Earth’s stock dropped by 5.04% during regular trading hours, closing at $16.26. However, optimism about future prospects led to a 3.32% increase in aftermarket trading, with the stock price reaching $16.80. The trading volume of 404,590 in the aftermarket indicates strong investor interest. The stock has demonstrated remarkable momentum, delivering a 44.84% return over the past year and 29.03% over the last six months. With analyst price targets ranging from $15 to $20, InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is currently overvalued. Access the complete Pro Research Report for detailed valuation metrics and expert analysis.

Outlook & Guidance

USA Rare Earth is focused on scaling its operations, aiming for a 5,000-ton production capacity. The company is exploring acquisitions and investments to drive growth and is preparing for supply chain expansion in 2026-2027. The U.S. government’s support for domestic rare earth development presents additional opportunities.

Executive Commentary

CEO Joshua Ballard emphasized the company’s strategic role in meeting the U.S.’s rare earth needs, stating, "We are on a mission to serve a broad array of customers who use, rely on and innovate with metals and magnets across diverse industries." Ballard also highlighted the potential market deficit of rare earth metals, positioning USA Rare Earth as a key player in addressing this challenge.

Risks and Challenges

• Financial losses and high capital expenditures could strain resources.
• The company’s ability to execute its ambitious growth plans remains uncertain.
• Potential supply chain disruptions and market volatility could impact operations.
• Dependence on government support introduces regulatory and policy risks.
• Competition from established players in the rare earth market is a challenge.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the timeline for equipment installation and the company’s funding strategy. Executives confirmed the installation schedule and discussed potential government price support mechanisms, addressing concerns about cash burn and financial sustainability.

Full transcript - USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Good day, everyone, and welcome to the USAA Rare Earth Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Please also note today’s event is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the floor over to Lionel McBee, the Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

Lionel McBee, Vice President of Investor Relations, USA Rare Earth: Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and welcome to USA Rare Earth’s twenty twenty five second quarter earnings conference call. I’m joined today with our Chief Executive Officer, Joshua Ballard and our Chief Financial Officer, Rob Steele. Earlier this afternoon, we issued our second quarter fiscal twenty twenty five results. Our results, earnings release and slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at usare.com.

Today’s call, we may make projections and other forward looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. These statements may discuss our business, economic and market outlook, growth expectations, new products and their performance, cost structure and business strategy. Forward looking statements are based on information currently available to us and on management’s beliefs, assumptions, estimates or projections. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to the documents the company files from time to time with the SEC, specifically the company’s Form 10 ks and Form 10 Qs.

These documents identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward looking statements. All statements made during this call are made only as of today, 08/11/2025, and the company expressly disclaims any intent or obligation to update any forward looking statements made during this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances unless otherwise required by law. So with that, I’ll turn the call over to Josh.

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Thank you, Lionel. It’s been another exciting quarter in the rare earth mineral and magnet industries. And before providing perspective on the broader sector developments, I want to emphasize our vision for USA Rare Earth. We are focused on building a highly profitable and fully integrated supply chain from mining, concentrating and separating rare earths to making metals and metal alloys to forming and finishing rare earth magnets and finally to end of life recycling. We are on a mission to serve a broad array of customers who use, rely on and innovate with metals and magnets across diverse industries and all their varying complexities.

We are accelerating development across each of our existing assets while also actively exploring how we will fill in and strengthen any gaps in that mind the magnet strategy while remaining focused on creating shareholder value. Our magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma is making rapid and tangible progress and remains on target with our commissioning goals. Both our magnet facility in Oklahoma and our research and development facility outside of Denver continue to attract the brightest mines. And our highly strategic heavy rare earth round top deposit in Texas remains uniquely positioned for its incredible concentration of heavy rare earths and gallium. Taking a step back, the Chinese government continues to restrict the export of rare earth metals and magnets by their domestic producers and this is having a profound impact on the multitude of industries that rely on these materials.

The cost of rare earth oxides and metals outside of China have increased dramatically, especially for the difficult to obtain heavy rare earths tightening supply. We are hearing directly from many of the companies affected by China’s restriction on the export of rare earth elements in neo magnets and are working as quickly as we can to address their growing needs. Companies are reaching out to us directly to gain access to domestically sourced magnets for the long term and they have been clear that they require a non China source of supply. Importantly, the U. S.

Government has demonstrated its intention to play a key role in supporting the development of the supply chain that we are seeking to develop. The U. S. Government investment in NP Materials is an important first step to de risking the sector and has shined a much needed spotlight on the importance of rare earths and rare earth magnets to American industry, technologies and national security. By announcing a price support mechanism to purchase the critical light rare earth mineral oxide NDPR at $110 per kilogram, which they recently publicly stated that they plan to replicate, the Trump administration has established an essential tool that will enable us to compete effectively with Chinese producers.

At USA Rare Earth, we have a special mix of assets and capabilities that we are leveraging with great effect as we accelerate our own activities in this exciting new world. We have raised the capital we need to begin investing aggressively. We are looking now at ways to advance our plans as quickly as possible, which I believe is our greatest path to value creation for this company, our shareholders and customers. Before I dive into the operational details, let’s turn the call over to Rob for a review of our financials.

Rob Steele, Chief Financial Officer, USA Rare Earth: Thanks, Josh. Let me begin with our cash position, which stands at $128,100,000 as of 08/07/2025. We are one of the best capitalized companies in the sector and have ample cash to support the initial capital expenditures of our first 600 metric ton phase of magnet production. This includes inflows of $22,000,000 from warrant exercises and $17,500,000 from the completion of our forward purchase agreements reflecting the strength and liquidity of our equity. Since our last call, we’ve continued executing on our strategic plan, advancing our facility build outs and expanding our team across key functions.

In the first half of the year, we deployed $6,300,000 in capital expenditures and grew to approximately 50 full time employees. Looking ahead, the remainder of 2025 marks a critical inflection point. We anticipate spending at least $60,000,000 in CapEx to support Phase one and plan to double our workforce to around 100 employees. Most new hires will be based at our Stillwater, Oklahoma facility focused on operations and highly specialized engineering alongside strategic additions in sales, marketing and corporate functions. We’re also enhancing our core infrastructure including systems and cyber security to ensure operational readiness by early next year.

As our commercial pipeline expands, we are aligning capital deployment with customer demand, prioritizing capabilities and technologies that position us for long term success. Our recent MOUs with MOOG and ePropelled underscore our intent to expand into high growth sectors like data centers and drones, which are expected to double or triple in size over the next decade. These industries drive digital and physical AI as well as next generation defense systems and require massive quantities of precision engineered micro magnets with advanced surfacing. Capabilities we are actively developing as we look to the industry’s future needs. We’re also preparing to secure the metal inventory needed to support projected growth in 2026 and beyond.

While we’re not yet providing formal revenue guidance, we are planning to produce 200 to 500 metric tons of neo magnets next year with the flexibility to scale further if needed. Our sourcing strategy incorporates both mined and recycled non China based feedstock and we’re laying the groundwork for sustained supply into 2027. In Q4, we’ll begin testing our magnet manufacturing line in Stillwater, a key milestone that will allow us to validate our supply chain, train our workforce and qualify raw materials on a commercial scale equipment. These efforts paved the way for commissioning in Q1 twenty twenty six. On expenses, we continue to expect ongoing operating costs to average 8,000,000 to $9,000,000 per quarter through year end with a heavier spend anticipated in Q4 as we ramp.

For the 2025, we reported an operating loss of $8,800,000 which includes $1,800,000 in accruals related to the Kleiner litigation and overhang we resolved immediately following quarter end. This compares to a $3,000,000 operating loss in Q2 twenty twenty four, primarily driven by increased SG and A associated with our merger and early team expansion. R and D expenses rose year over year reflecting our continued commitment to advancing the Round Top joint venture flow sheet and building differentiated capabilities for future phases. We reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $142,500,000 or $1.54 per share. This includes a non cash fair value adjustment of $134,700,000 related to financial instruments.

Excluding this, our net loss was $7,800,000 or $08 per share, which we believe is a more accurate reflection of our core operating performance. Going forward, we will provide this adjustment to facilitate your analysis of our results. We ended the quarter with $121,800,000 of cash and no significant debt, positioning us well to execute on our near term milestones. In summary, we remain financially strong and are deploying capital with discipline to support scalable long term growth. We continue to evaluate funding options for future phases and we expect our cost of capital to improve as we execute, potentially including non dilutive government funding opportunities.

I’ll now turn it back over to Josh for our operational update.

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Thanks Rob. Let’s start with an update on our centered NeoMagnet business in Oklahoma where we are making tremendous progress towards producing and shipping our first magnets in early twenty twenty six. Our infrastructure work is ahead of schedule and fully on track to be completed before the end of the year. We’ve begun to commission our equipment in Stillwater and this work will accelerate in the third and early fourth quarters. Our current target is to achieve the critical milestone of producing Magna blocks from our centering furnace before year end.

Our finishing equipment is still set to arrive on schedule in the first quarter. We are also making significant progress on the operational and quality systems we will need as we move to production. We’ve also exceeded our own expectations with hiring as we ramp up our team in anticipation of production early next year across key manufacturing, highly specialized engineering, sales and back office staff. Our effort to bring a rare earth MIND and MAGNET value chain back to America has resonated deeply with our potential candidates. Importantly, we are finding success in hiring key magnet expertise for our innovations lab, which is critical as we work through the qualification processes of our key customers and then translate that work in the lab to full scale production.

On the customer side, we are currently engaged with over 70 companies across a variety of industries such as aviation, defense, energy, industrial equipment, car manufacturing, automotive supply, shipbuilding, robotics, mobile phone companies among others. While we have publicly announced four agreements across the consumer defense and automotive industries to date, I’m excited to disclose that we have now signed a dozen MOUs and joint development agreements. These agreements alone imply nearly 300 tons of annual shipments and include industries such as oil and gas, automotive supply and other industrial uses. Our high confidence commercial pipeline exceeds 2,000 tons of annual production, highlighting robust market demand that could fully book our first line before it’s even at full capacity. Overall, we’ve identified roughly 5,000 to 7,000 tons of potential demand, which does not yet include all the volume at each of these customers with demand coming from both The United States as well as Europe.

The majority of this demand is made up of small to medium sized customers, which we estimate could make up more than 70% of the market. Similar to the announcement from MP, we are talking to potential defense customers every day. And of course, we continue to talk to large EV manufacturers as we plan out our future lines. We are just beginning to tap into what we believe is a once in a generation reshoring opportunity. As we put further pieces of our business in place, you will see us accelerate our sales process which we will update you on in future calls.

To summarize, we continue to make tangible progress and remain on track with our magnet business. We’re excited by the overwhelming response we are seeing from customers across the country and in Europe to what we are building. We’re also pleased that customers understand the unique value proposition we provide compared to our peers in the market, namely our focus on customer diversity and high value product complexity across their magnet specs. As we move to the critical phase of our plant build, our sales team is focused on signing contracts and filling out our backlog for 2026, truly exciting times in our magnet business. Now let’s now turn to our Round Top deposit and the processing engineering work underway with our team outside of Denver, Colorado, which is key to our long term strategy.

As I mentioned in my introductory remarks, we’ve been investing in the processing capabilities now for nearly five years. This is a critical capability that is not isolated to our work with Round Top Mountain, but could be leveraged in other areas of our supply chain as we look to secure oxides for the future scaling of our business. We are committed to building out a reliable and cost effective supply of oxides for our future growth. Our strategy and approach could include working with concentrates from other deposits in addition to Round Top as well as recycling or working hand in hand with other processors. With regards to our own development, I’m pleased to report that we have made great progress this past quarter in separating out our bulk gallium as well as heavy and light rare earths into separate concentrate streams.

While we are still fine tuning these processes, we are now also turning to the work of extracting the individual minerals from solution, the separation stage as well as on the recycling of the acids and reagents we need to run a clean operation while reducing costs. Our team remains confident in our engineering approach and in the technical viability of our work separating these critical heavy rare earths and other tech metals. We have added critical members to our team with immense experience in rare earth extraction. In addition, we commend the Trump administration’s bold price support actions, which underscore the national urgency around rare earth dependence, a mandate that Round Top Mountain is uniquely positioned to deliver on. I look forward to updating you more on our work in Denver moving forward.

In closing, goal is to be the leader in the ex China rare earth supply chain. We are taking a bold and broad based approach to this layered and complex market to provide the greatest value to our customers and shareholders. The U. S. Will face a major deficit of rare earth metals and magnets in the coming years without multiple solutions to the set of problems we face.

We are uniquely positioned to be a cornerstone of these solutions. Due to our significant deposit of heavy rare earth and gallium in Texas, which is unique in The United States, our ability to scale quickly to 5,000 tons capacity in our existing Magna facility starting with the commissioning at scale of our first line beginning in early twenty twenty six, only a few short months away. Our strong balance sheet with no debt and nearly $130,000,000 of cash positioning us to be a consolidator in the industry. We see several attractive areas for high return to growth both organically and via acquisition. And finally, our focus on investing where necessary across the supply chain to ensure that we have the feedstock that we need.

Recent geopolitical news and government support for the domestic industry as well as feedback from customers and suppliers globally has only reaffirmed this strategy. We believe we are well on our way to achieving our mission of becoming a strategic and valuable national asset. I look forward to keeping you updated on our progress in the coming months. Let’s move to Q and A.

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we’ll begin the question and answer session. And our first question today comes from Derek Stoderberg from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead with your question.

Drew Norquist, Analyst Representative, Cantor Fitzgerald: Hi, this is Drew Norquist calling for Derek Stoderberg. Thank you guys for taking the questions. I do have a few questions. I’m find that first 1,200 ton production line.

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: That’s right. Yes, that’s exactly right.

Drew Norquist, Analyst Representative, Cantor Fitzgerald: It is? Okay. And then more focused on the mining operations. You guys did a preliminary economic analysis around the Round Mine. Everything looks good there.

I’m just wondering if there’s an updated timeline on when the feasibility study could be expected to be done?

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: No updated timeline today. What we did talk about last quarter was that we’re targeting to build a pilot plant over the next couple of years. In order to build that pilot plant, kind of it’s contingent on us getting to our flow sheet and pre feasibility study within that timeframe. So that’s what we’re targeting. The work we’re doing now is what’s going to define whether or not we keep to that target or not.

So that’s something we’ll keep you guys updated on in the coming months.

Drew Norquist, Analyst Representative, Cantor Fitzgerald: Sounds good. My next question is to your MP Materials secured a floor price in their DoD deal for mega production. I was wondering if that sort of directly or indirectly benefits you guys at all?

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Well, MP has quite a bit of NDPR. Our strengths are heavy rare earths, so it doesn’t necessarily help us directly at this time, but where I believe it sends a strong signal and what we take is a great positive from the Trump administration is that they’re willing to do price support. So I would expect them to expand that as they look at the broader industry. I think they know they haven’t solved heavy rare earths yet. MP does not have a strong heavy rare earth deposit.

So I believe that they’re going to be looking at expanding that and my expectation that we would see similar things not only rare earths but also in other minerals probably as well.

Drew Norquist, Analyst Representative, Cantor Fitzgerald: Okay. And my final question is just regarding cash burn. Do you guys think your current cash level can sustain you up to full 4,800 ton reduction or just sort of for that first 1,200 production line before you need any additional funding?

Rob Steele, Chief Financial Officer, USA Rare Earth: Yes. So what we’ve said previously is that the full four lines from a CapEx standpoint is at least $250,000,000 and an additional $50,000,000 capital. And our current cash balance right now is north of $130,000,000 actually. So clearly, we will need to raise more capital. But having said that, we have about $280,000,000 plus in unexercised warrants already on our balance sheet.

And as you’ve seen our capital position has grown over the last three months here since we executed the pipe and that’s mainly because of the exercise of our warrants. So we feel like we’re in a good position.

Drew Norquist, Analyst Representative, Cantor Fitzgerald: All right. Thank you, guys.

Conference Operator: Our next question comes from Suji Desilva from ROTH Capital. Please go ahead with your question.

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Hi, Joshua, Rob, Lionel, congrats on the progress here. I’m trying to understand on the equipment,

Conference Operator: I think I heard

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: you say you’re putting some of the equipment in 1Q twenty twenty six. I guess some of that will come in even as the line starts to produce. I’m just curious on the timeframe there. And the CapEx $60,000,000 you said will that the bulk of that occur in calendar twenty twenty five or is that spread over the next two years?

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: I’ll take the first half and Rob can take the second. So right now what we’re commissioning is what I’d call the backbone. It’s everything from where we get a strip cast metal to pieces of metal all the way through the centering furnace where we would have magnet blocks come out of the centering furnace ready for finishing coating and so forth. That is what we’re commissioning actively now and what we’re focused on getting commissioned by the end of the year. The finishing and equipment and coating equipment is what arrives next year and allows us to finish out the line.

So much of that is arriving in throughout the first quarter and then we’ll be commissioning throughout the first quarter to get into our finishing phase. Rob, do you want to

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: take the second half?

Rob Steele, Chief Financial Officer, USA Rare Earth: Yes, sure. In terms of the CapEx, as we said, we expect another $60 plus million this year. That is the bulk of the first phase of Line one.

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Okay, great. And then I think Joshua referred to inorganic elements of your strategy. Can you just talk about what that some of that may entail strategically? Is it tack on increasing sort of demand geographic perhaps in terms of sourcing or technical capabilities? Any color there would be helpful.

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Yes, sure, Yvette. I mean, I think when you look across the supply chain from mine deposit to processing to metal making strip casting all the way to magnet, What we’re looking at is how we can fill in and strengthen any gaps we have. And as we look forward, how we can make sure that we’re covering our own scaling as we grow. So I really look at it in three pieces. One is first is we need to build scale, right?

And we need secondly, need that certainty of supply as we scale. And third is we want to control where we can be portions of supply chain just from a profitability perspective, so we can avoid having profit on top of profit on top of of profit. Profit. So what we’ll be looking at is first is how and then potentially recycling that can come in on the back end to provide oxide outside of everything else. So what we’ll be looking at first is how we strengthen that supply chain, which would add could potentially add new capabilities and it could potentially add just surety on supply.

This could be acquisitions, this could be joint ventures, this could be investments in our partners and other ways to ensure that we’re locked and loaded for 2026, ’27 and onward, because generally this industry is pretty undercapitalized outside of China. So we know we need to invest to make sure that the capital is there so that we can scale.

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Makes sense. Last question and I’ll pass it on. In terms of the end market applications, there’s some pretty large volume technical applications emerging right now. Obviously, data center, but then beyond that drones, humanoid robots. I’m just curious as more generally your ability to handle these customer requests for investigating customized magnets for them, how that scales to be customer specific and tackle all these?

Do you have to kind of stagger these so you can meet the initial request? I’m curious whether some of these can be near term or are more longer term opportunities?

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Yes. And you cited a few that we’ve announced drones and other areas and it’s a wide range of sizes in particular and we’ll be investing in the equipment we need to support them. These customers tend to congregate into general sizes and general shapes that we can hone in on. So it’s not like it’s bespoke for every customer, but some of it will get phased in. So it’s not all going to be ready when we what we’re commissioning in the first quarter going to the second quarter as we start commissioning ship is not necessarily going be all these capabilities.

Some of those capabilities we’ll be adding in mid year. I think I talked last quarter about the fact that we’ll be starting out with about 600 tons capacity and then we’ll be increasing that to 1,200 tons throughout the year. So some of that will happen as we’re increasing throughout the year and then some of that could follow on even from there. But we’re certainly looking closely making sure at least from an ROI perspective that the equipment we’re adding has the volume and profitability we need to have a good ROI on what we’re investing in. But our goal is to be a broad player to a lot of these customers who right now don’t have a home.

Suji Desilva, Analyst, ROTH Capital: Okay. Very helpful. Thanks everybody.

Joshua Ballard, Chief Executive Officer, USA Rare Earth: Thanks.

Conference Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll be concluding today’s question and answer session as well as today’s conference call. We do thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

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