Natera at Morgan Stanley Conference: Strategic Growth in Healthcare

On Monday, 08 September 2025, Natera Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) participated in the Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference, showcasing its robust performance and strategic advancements. The company emphasized significant growth in organ health and oncology, while also addressing areas for improvement, such as expanding reimbursement coverage for its Signatera product.

Key Takeaways

• Natera reported record growth in its Signatera product, driven by increased patient volume.
• The company holds a strong position in the women’s health sector, with over 50% market share in non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT).
• Positive results from the INVICTER trial in bladder cancer highlight Natera’s innovation in oncology.
• Natera is leveraging its data to develop AI models for pharmaceutical partnerships.
• The company is focused on expanding Medicare coverage for Signatera and enhancing its reimbursement strategies.

Financial Results

• Signatera’s average selling price (ASP) is just under $1,200, with potential to reach $2,000 over time.
• Natera holds $1 billion in cash reserves, supporting its growth and innovation strategies.
• Opportunities for ASP increases include a potential $100 to $150 boost from improved Medicare Advantage compliance and $150 to $300 from biomarker states with commercial patients.
• A Japan market launch is anticipated in 2027, potentially offering higher pricing than in the U.S.

Operational Updates

• Natera achieved a record number of new Signatera patients in the last quarter.
• Approximately half of U.S. doctors are utilizing Signatera quarterly.
• The INVICTER trial in muscle-invasive bladder cancer demonstrated disease-free and overall survival benefits.
• In women’s health, Natera launched Fetal Focus, enhancing its NIPT offerings without requiring a father’s sample.
• The company benefits from strong guideline support in organ health for donor-derived cell-free DNA and kidney disease sequencing.

Future Outlook

• Natera expects continued improvement in Signatera ASP in the upcoming quarters.
• Efforts are underway to secure Medicare coverage for 30% of tumor types currently uncovered.
• The company plans to launch a colorectal cancer screening test based on the Proceed study in 2027.
• Natera is developing an AI-driven foundation model using Signatera data for pharma partnerships and clinical enhancements.

Q&A Highlights

• The minimal residual disease (mRD) market is in its early stages, presenting significant growth potential.
• Discussions included potential guideline inclusion for Signatera and state-by-state biomarker bill rollouts.
• Capital allocation strategies were addressed, focusing on ROIC-driven investments.

Natera continues to demonstrate its commitment to growth and innovation, with a focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings. For further insights, readers are encouraged to refer to the full transcript below.

Full transcript - Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference:

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Okay, I think we can get started, everyone. Thank you, everyone, for joining. I’m really pleased today to be joined by the Natera team. We have Steve Chapman, CEO, and Mike Brophy, CFO. Before we get started, for important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. Thank you, gents, for coming. Maybe, Steve, let’s just start high level. Pretty eventful 2025. Maybe just talk us through what you’re most proud of and any kind of challenges that you encountered through the way thus far.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, thanks. We’ve had a great 2025 thus far. Significant volume and revenue growth, really driven in the core business areas. One would tell organ health and then, of course, oncology. We’ve seen just incredible uptick of the Signatera product. I think in the last quarter, we had a record number of new patients, record growth in new patients, just also record volume growth overall as we continue to see significant interest broadly from the physician community. It’s certainly exciting. We’ve also continued to have excellent readouts on clinical data. I think the positive and bigger 011 top line readout is a very good sign. That’s certainly exciting. We look forward to seeing kind of the official readout on that at an upcoming conference. Things have gone really well. I think the other area is product launches.

You’ve seen us continue to invest in innovation and continue to push the boundaries forward. We had an excellent launch with the Signatera Genome, then with the Fetal Focus NIPT product, where we’re looking at autosomal recessive and other types of disorders directly from the cell-free DNA sample without the need for a father. That’s a great product. Then the tissue-naive mRD test Latitude, again, kind of another innovation that puts us in a great position.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Good stuff. A lot of things to dive into there. I think one of the first ones on oncology, obviously a lot of momentum to date with Signatera. We obviously have now more players entering that market, some claiming improved sensitivity to existing options. How do you feel about your competitive mode in that market today?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, we feel really good. I mean, if you look at just the volume in Q2, we had a record volume growth quarter, directly in the quarter where multiple competitors are launching their products and some of them haven’t gained reimbursement and so forth. Obviously, I think that speaks to the performance of the test. I think we’re, for those who want a genome-based assay, we have genome-based testing. We get down to ultra-sensitive ranges, down to one part per million. We’re in a great position to compete, whether it’s on clinical data, whether it’s on ease of use, whether it’s on analytical performance. I think we’re in a good position.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Good stuff. Obviously, uptake’s been great. mRD penetration remains low. Can you just shine some light on how penetrated each of your reimbursed indications are today?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, I mean, overall, we think the mRD market is still in the very low single digits when it comes to kind of broad penetration. Because we’ve been able to get reimbursement in many different indications, now I think something in maybe seven or something in that range, we have reimbursement for. That’s continuing. There’s a lot more indications to come where we’re going to get reimbursement. You really kind of think about it as the broader market. I would say like very early stages of growth, long way to go, I think more broadly before we start thinking about, you know, kind of penetration levels being a barrier for growth. Certainly, colorectal has been an area where we’ve focused. We’re starting to see great uptake and continued use there by a significant number of the providers in the country.

I think we’re now seeing about half the doctors in the U.S. using Signatera in a particular quarter, which is really remarkable if you think about the impact that we’re making on patient care.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: We’ve seen good uptake as well, early uptake in tumor types outside of CRC and breast. Obviously, a compelling opportunity that does maybe mean in the shorter term there’s a growing portion of unreimbursed tests. Can you maybe just remind us on how many Signatera tests today are reimbursed versus perhaps last year?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, so we’ve seen actually kind of consistent growth. If you look back historically over time, you know, when you look at like the % of the business that’s like colorectal, the % that’s say breast, % that’s in other indications, despite the growth that we’ve had, that’s kind of remained, you know, consistent over time. I think it’s something like maybe 30% of the overall volume is in these indications that is kind of unreimbursed from the standpoint of doesn’t have Medicare coverage. You know, of course, there’s still kind of the difference between private and Medicare that you have to look at. In the indications that don’t have Medicare coverage, we see that as an opportunity for us because we know that we have this pipeline of data coming out that’s going to enable us to get Medicare coverage.

You know, that’s really upside for us as we move forward. The fact that that volume continues to grow, you know, even largely without us, you know, really promoting in those areas, I think is a good sign for the overall market.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: You touched on that earlier about the INVICTER trial. Just remind us how big that opportunity today is in MIBC.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, if you look at muscle-invasive bladder cancer, you know, something in the range of maybe like 20,000 new patients diagnosed per year. One of the challenges is making a decision about how to treat those patients in the adjuvant setting. In this trial, patients that are mRD positive were randomized to receive atezolizumab or not. We’re waiting for the top line results, have been read out that the study was positive in disease-free survival and overall survival, which was really unexpected. I think there wasn’t an expectation that overall survival would be read out this quickly. I think we’re waiting for the final results to be released at an upcoming conference. Certainly, a lot of excitement there enabling a new opportunity for physicians to treat patients.

I think in bladder, we have several other studies and we’ve had many studies and I think we’re really seeing great acceptance there by the community.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Do you think those results could help drive inclusion of Signatera in guidelines?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: It’s possible. I think, you know, I hesitate to ever comment on what might cause something to get into guidelines or not. We’re now seeing guideline changes happening. I think we had earlier the MCC change, which was positive guidelines there. I think there’s been some guideline changes in lymphomas, which has been positive. I think the CRC guidelines improved significantly from two cycles ago to one cycle ago. It takes time. Ultimately, what is the point of guideline? The point of guidelines is to get volume usage and then to get coverage. We’re seeing volume usage at a really rapid pace right now just because of how the test works. We’re getting coverage through both Medicare and through the American Cancer Society-driven biomarker initiatives. We’re doing really well even as we’re waiting for the guidelines to evolve.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Have you seen an uptick in interest in just incorporating mRD into clinical trials for the biopharma side?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah. If you look at how it’s being used in trials, we think it’s a very exciting opportunity. Probably the most exciting area is this idea of treatment on molecular recurrence. If you look out into the future, today the standard paradigm is you can’t administer a drug to a patient until you have clinical relapse. You have to see it on a scan. You have to see certain physical symptoms and so forth. In the future, maybe it’s five years out, we don’t know the exact timing, drugs are going to be administered based on molecular relapse alone, just based on the CT DNA. We’re in a great position to be one of the leaders of diagnostics change that’s going to happen here as pharma companies start to move their drugs earlier in the overall treatment paradigm. We’re starting to see some of those trials read out now.

I think the DARE study hasn’t been unblinded yet, but some of the initial data was read out, which showed that one arm was performing much better than the other arm. We’ll have to see ultimately how that reads out. We don’t know. It’s still blinded to us. It’s possible that could be kind of read out at a conference upcoming this year.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Understood. You highlighted an uptick in new patient stats. I think Q1 was like three times higher than the quarterly average. Maybe just remind us what drove that and what is reflected now in the guide from the dynamics for the remainder of the year.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, so, you know, I think there’s a, there’s kind of a lot of different things that are driving uptick in Signatera. I think a lot of it is coming from physicians using the product and liking it and seeing how it impacts their patients. A lot of it’s coming from new clinical data coming out. You remember we had the big readout of the 702 trial at ASCO GI, which I think was, you know, one of the best data sets that’s come out so far. Both of those things just continue to be in the market, being in physician offices, you know, plus continued data readouts are driving this really increase in new patients coming in. Ultimately, you know, down the road, that will lead to more recurrence monitoring being done.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: On the biomarker bill, I think you talked about early positive signs there. Maybe just let us know what you’re seeing. What I’m trying to understand is I think the policy is mandated on a state-by-state level. Just give us a sense on the variation for how that could roll out.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, you want to kick it, Mike?

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: Just on the biomarker state penetration. Yeah, so I mean, I think that something like half the U.S. population lives in a state where there’s been a law passed that requires payers to provide the same level of coverage for commercial patients as is provided for Medicare patients. That’s kind of the background. What we’ve seen so far is a steady kind of progress among payers in those states starting to cover Signatera for their commercial patients. We had set out a little over a year ago, we’d set out this goal that by Q3 of 2025 that we should start to actually see some ASP contributions from these changes in coverage driven by biomarker states. We mentioned on the August Q2 earnings call that we’re on a good pace for that. We’ve seen a number of meaningful payers in significant states start to cover commercial lives for Signatera.

I expect that to be one of several drivers for ASP over the next couple of years. I think that’s going on track. Yeah.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: ASP, so stick with that. I think now just under the $1.2K mark. You’ve said that you’re confident it can hit $2K over time. Just talk us through that cadence and how we get there.

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: Yeah, I mean, you know, I give this bridge often and I often have different components of the bridge because there are a number of different ways that one could get there. I mean, one kind of indicative framework would be as follows. I think there’s another $100 to $150 that’s available to us just by driving better compliance for reimbursement from Medicare Advantage payers in tumor types where we currently have Medicare reimbursement. For a variety of bureaucratic reasons, we don’t get the reimbursement from the Medicare Advantage plan. That’s step one. That happens every day at the company. We’ve made tremendous progress on that front over the last year and a half, and we continue to turn the crank there.

I think there’s another, call it $150 to $300 available to us in ASP from really executing in the same way, but in the biomarker state and commercial patients as well. I think there’s a similar size opportunity in driving ASP just by winning Medicare coverage in this kind of 30% of tumor types that Steve was referring to earlier, where we haven’t yet gotten coverage from CMS for tumor type. It’s a longer tail of cancers there. The next five or so represents the overwhelming majority of that opportunity. We’ve shown you over time that we know how to do that. We know how to generate the high-quality evidence, submit the dossiers, and get reimbursement from Medicare. Beyond those immediate pieces of low-hanging fruit, the next thing we’d have would be a launch in Japan, which could realize pricing in Japan could well be accretive to the U.S.

ASP, just given that there’s a national health system in place in Japan. We expect that launch right now to happen in 2027. Beyond that, I think that’s ample time to start to get into guidelines. You start to get, perhaps it’s MIBC, perhaps it’s certain stages within colorectal cancer, which would be a larger opportunity. I think those in combination get you well beyond $2,000 as an ASP.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: How should we be thinking about the exit rate for ASP this year?

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: Yeah, I mean, I’d like to see kind of continued sequential improvement in the Signatera ASP, both in Q3 and Q4. We’ve been able to deliver that over the last few quarters, and that’s what’s currently contemplated. I mentioned biomarker states as one driver. One other comment on that kind of broader bridge is that I hope what the key takeaway for you is that the vast majority of those drivers, you know, these are things that are within our control and are not kind of, we’re not hinged on external committees to accelerate their own timelines. These are things that we know how to do and that we’ve been successful with for a long time now.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: On adjuvant versus recurrence, where’s the volume split today? I think it was 50-50, but I’m wondering whether the new patient size.

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: Yeah, so it varies quite a bit. I mean, I think for modeling purposes, splitting between adjuvant and recurrence, roughly 50-50 is not a terrible assumption. I think for street models, that’ll get you to roughly the right place. It does bounce around though, and it’s an interesting dynamic, even this year. We had a massive uptake in new patient starts in Q2. Those new patient starts can be volatile quarter to quarter, but I thought that was quite interesting that you saw that big spike in Q2. I think you can ascribe that to different drivers. We have had a drumbeat of very impactful studies come out and get presented at conferences that I think is inspiring an even broader swath of physicians to start using Signatera.

You’ll have these things come in waves where you get a bunch of new patient starts and maybe the mix of your volume skews a little bit more toward the adjuvant setting. That settles for a quarter or two, and then the inevitable momentum of people doing their repeat testing, the mix will kind of shift back toward the recurrence monitoring. This thing goes back and forth, and it’s a very healthy dynamic. It’s what you would expect as we continue to launch and mature on the product.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: On screening, I think data are expected late fall. What’s the bar in your view from Proceed to give you confidence that you have a compelling screening offering?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, so here we’re talking about early cancer detection for colorectal cancer. Just as a reminder, we put out data earlier this year at the JP Morgan conference looking at colorectal cancer performance, and the data was very, very strong. We had a lot of asymptomatic screening detected patients in that cohort, which was a little bit different than what a lot of the other companies that have come before us. They had a much higher mix of symptomatic patients. We felt good about that data. The Proceed study is a prospectively collected, roughly 5,000 sample study. I think we’ll be reading out on maybe the first 2,000 or 3,000, something in that range. It’s collected exactly like an FDA-enabled study, so it’s the exact same protocol. You get your blood drawn prior to your colonoscopy. It’s all done in a kind of a blinded prospective manner.

We’re going to get a readout on advanced adenoma. What we’re looking for is just what is our performance on advanced adenoma and how does that compare to the other blood-based screening tests. Because of how common advanced adenoma is, with a study of several thousand patients, you’re actually able to get good numbers of advanced adenoma samples. This would be a really good readout, and I think give people a sense of what our performance is going to be. We’re already collecting the FIND study, which is our FDA-enabling CRC and advanced adenoma study. That’s already had first patient in, and the goal is to collect that this year and complete the trial in 2026 and have the product available on market in 2027.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Mike, obviously screening, huge market, unpenetrated. That requires a lot of these sales and marketing costs. How are you thinking about that kind of trade-off between investing and profitability?

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: I don’t think early cancer detection screening is any different for us than any other area in which we’ve launched. We’ve always launched in a very logical adjacency from an area in which we’ve already had a bunch of success. That comes from both either technology adjacency or from a commercial salesforce adjacency. In this case, we’ve got both. You know we do have meaningful presences both in oncology and women’s health as an example as a good starting point in terms of the sales and marketing effort. The plan is certainly not to just go and launch a thousand rep, you know, primary care call point and hope that it works out. On the contrary, we’ll gradually build this on the back of success the way that we’ve always done.

I think that this can be a very, you know, first and foremost, you’re going to solve a huge problem for patients. I mean, there’s a huge swath of people out there that are just not going to get a colonoscopy and they’re just, they’re not going to do like a stool-based test. In lieu of any other viable option, they’re just not going to get screened at all. That’s an enormous unmet need. I think we can address that unmet need with a high-quality test. I think that the history of commercial execution in this business over the last decade should give you some confidence that we can offer this test in a high-quality way to a large swath of patients and have it be relatively efficient.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Just the last one on oncology, the AI-driven foundation model, maybe just talk us through what that is. Obviously, you’ve generated a ton of data on the back of Signatera. How are you using that?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, so for AI and data-related strategies, we’re actually in an incredibly strong position. There’s a couple of different opportunities. One is sort of working with pharma, and then the other is adding products and features in the clinical business. When we’re working with pharma companies, we built our own foundation model that is including all the Signatera data, hundreds of thousands of whole tumor exome and genome sequences, along with a million now plasma time points and all the clinical data that goes along with that. Nobody has anything that’s even close to what we have in the adjuvant setting. A lot of companies that are working in the space largely have kind of metastatic patient data. A lot of times they have targeted hybrid capture-based panels, not exome and genome data with longitudinal time points.

We fed all that into a new created foundation model where we can ask questions. We can learn things from it. I think we’re focusing that on a couple of different areas. One is partnering with pharma companies. They want to do in silico clinical trials. They want to understand which patients may respond to particular treatments, who’s going to respond to immunotherapy and so forth. There’s also an opportunity to look at commercial questions. Now that a lot of drugs are being linked to mRD positivity, we know where those mRD positive patients are. We know what doctor ordered it, what office they’re in, when they turned mRD positive.

To the extent that there’s drugs that are tied to somebody being mRD positive, which is now going to be a whole wave of drugs, we’re actually in a really good position commercially to help those patients get access and help the pharma companies. We’re also using it for neoantigene prediction. We’ve shown some data. You look at, I think what we presented on the last earnings call, the Tesla database was a database that compares neoantigene prediction across all the top models that are out there. We ran our neoantigene prediction model through the Tesla database, and we outperformed everybody else that had already gone through the prediction ranking system. I think we’re in a very unique situation here.

Today, it’s kind of all greenfield, but we haven’t monetized this, but you can see some of the other companies in the space are doing hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue. I think this is a big opportunity for us kind of at the right time where pharma is looking to move much earlier into the adjuvant setting. They’re looking to bring their drugs earlier with treatment on molecular relapse. Now we’ve built up this kind of data set. The last four years have been working really behind the scenes with about 20 people building the kind of framework. Now we’re ready to kind of bring this to the market. It kind of remains to be seen exactly how quickly we can start to grow revenue on top of it, but it’s certainly exciting. On the clinical side, we have all digital images for all the pathology.

We have all the outcomes data. We’re building new signatures, new algorithms that we can layer in with the results, new predictive signatures, new biomarkers where when somebody orders Signatera, we can now give them additional information. I would say we’re on the cutting edge of pushing AI in diagnostics and in oncology detection. We’re definitely one of the leaders here in the space. We’re doing it, I think, behind the scenes, but we’ve got a lot going on.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Exciting stuff. Shifting onto women’s health, that business has been around for a while. It’s still growing really nicely. Maybe just talk us through what you’re seeing in the market today and how confident you are keeping up these growth rates.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, so, you know, women’s health, we were kind of the, I think, fourth to market. We’re now number one. We have more than 50% share. Doctors love the technology. We have really strong customer service. We have a well-respected and highly trained sales team and clinical team. We publish a ton of data. I think that’s one of the things that we really kind of do across the businesses is publish data. I think we have over like 75 peer-reviewed papers in NIPT, including the SMART study, which was the largest prospective study that’s ever been done in the U.S. for both NIPT and the 22q disorder. I think a lot of the growth there is continuing because of the way that we do things with the data and with the innovation.

Earlier this year, we launched Fetal Focus, which is a product where today when you do carrier screening, if the mother is positive, you then get a blood draw from the father. If both the mother and the father are positive, then you may do an amnio, for example, for the baby. There is a new technology that we’ve launched that enables us to actually look at the fetus and determine whether they’ve inherited the maternal and paternal allele. We can now do direct detection without the need to get the father. This product is called Fetal Focus. It’s looking at five different disorders. We’ve seen a lot of interest there. I think there’s maybe it’s us and maybe one other group that has this type of capability today. We think that that gives us an opportunity.

Of course, continuing to innovate and stay ahead is one of the things that’s really helped us be successful.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: The average risk pool, that’s roughly 50% penetrated?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: I would say, overall, when you look at NIPT, I think you’re kind of in the mid-60% when you look at high risk and average risk combined, something in that range. There’s still greenfield opportunity, but there’s also competitive takeaways. We’re sort of working on both of those. Within hospital systems, sometimes there’s still quad screens or PAPP-A, HCG testing being done. Some of that gets converted over. There are competitors that just aren’t innovating, where we have technologies and capabilities and data sets that doctors like, and they shift their business over to us. The other opportunity within women’s health, it’s not discussed as much anymore, is just ASP improvement over time. One of the key ways to do that is getting coverage for 22q. As that opportunity comes about, I think there’s going to be probably significant upside for Natera.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Great stuff. On Fetal Focus, you said five genes. Are there plans to expand beyond that?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: You know, it’s something we have to look at.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Okay. Got you. Just remind us on the ASPs on the NIPT side.

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: Yeah, ASPs for NIPT now are, you know, high $300s, above where they were when we went public, 10 years ago. I think that’s a function of just the execution that we’ve been able to deploy on the revenue cycle side just to drive compliance from payers where they have a covered test and we’ve submitted the claim. Just getting the claim submitted in exactly the way that they need it in order to reimburse the test is an enormous operational challenge. I think we’ve largely met that, although there’s still room to grow both there and also for the carrier screening test as well.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: How is the attachment rate to carrier screening looking today?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Carrier screening attachment to NIPT, I mean, what I would say is, in a significant portion of patients, the doctors want to do both NIPT and carrier screening. Of course, there’s some portions of the business where that doesn’t make sense, like in the IVF setting, they’re not doing NIPT at the same time that they’re doing carrier screening. We do well there, but in the vast majority of cases, the doctors want to do both NIPT and carrier screening. They don’t always order it at the same time, just depending on the dynamics in the office, but usually, if the doctor’s using us for one, they’re using us for the other.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: I know we’re short on time, but just quickly on organ health, the KDIGO and NKF endorsement, how did that change the guidelines at all? What have you seen from that?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: We have had very strong guideline support in both donor-derived cell-free DNA, or I’d say society support for both donor-derived cell-free DNA and in our chronic kidney disease sequencing business, or sequencing product lines. Guidelines are positive, generally for both. I think that’s contributing to us seeing continued uptick in both donor-derived cell-free DNA and in our chronic kidney disease business.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Yeah, okay, just a couple of financials. You know, $1 billion sitting in a bank, pre-cash flow, beginning to scale nicely. What are your thoughts now on capital allocation from here?

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: We’ll just continue to have an ROIC-driven model and be very strict about that. I mean, when we look at, for example, Signatera, which, you know, we think can be a $5 billion plus kind of annual revenue franchise, and we’re south of a billion dollars even this year, there’s a lot of just high ROIC opportunities to make investments that make a huge difference. The number one port of call there is improvements to the technology. You’ve seen two product launches from us this year in Signatera and also just continued relentless investment in clinical trials, which has always been our MO. As it relates to other ways to deploy capital, it has to meet that bar. I mean, the internal, organic R&D investments have always generated high returns for us, so other ways to deploy capital have to kind of meet that same kind of return threshold.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Okay, last one from me, and I’ll ask you both. What’s something you wish investors asked you more often about?

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Yeah, I mean, I would say just Signatera opportunity we get asked a lot about, but, you know, I like talking about it because, you know, it’s such an amazing product and helping so many patients. You know, I mean, everyone’s had an experience with someone they love, that’s had cancer and being able to bring this type of technology to market is super exciting. We’re just at the very early stages, which is great to be a great position to be in.

Mike Brophy, CFO, Natera: We announced top line qualitative results of the InVigor study, and more details will be coming at a forthcoming conference. I think that data is incredibly, incredibly important. We were able to deliver a positive overall survival result when the study was really only powered to deliver a disease-free survival result at this point. That makes an enormous difference. This is for a drug that did not work on all comers, but now when patients are selected on the basis of recurrences measured by Signatera, you get this very, very powerful result. I think that’s something that’s just underappreciated, understandably right now because you don’t have the full data set in front of you.

I think when that data gets presented and published, the opportunity for us to show that Signatera can really triage which patients can benefit massively from a therapy and which patients should not get that therapy at all has enormous implications for savings to the health system and for patient health. I think InVigor is a critical kind of prospective interventional study of which we will have many more.

Unidentified speaker, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Perfect. I think that takes us to time. Steve, Mike, thank you so much.

Steve Chapman, CEO, Natera: Thank you.

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