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Investing.com -- On Friday, Fitch Ratings affirmed Hungary’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ’BBB’ with a stable outlook. The country’s strong structural indicators, including a GDP per capita well above the median for ’BBB’ rated peers, and its attractiveness as a destination for foreign direct investment, particularly in the automotive and battery sectors, support this rating.
Despite these strengths, Hungary’s high public debt, unorthodox economic policies, and vulnerability to external shocks due to its open economy balance the rating. The country’s governance indicators have also worsened in recent years, moving closer to the ’BBB’ median.
Fitch forecasts Hungary’s real GDP growth to be a mere 0.7% in 2025, a significant drop from the 2.5% expected in their December review and the projected ’BBB’ median of 2.8%. This downward revision is due to increased trade uncertainty and weaker-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2025. The agency anticipates a contraction in fixed investment due to limited room for monetary and fiscal easing, low EU fund inflows, and high uncertainty.
However, Fitch expects a rebound in real GDP growth to 3.1% in 2026, driven by a pickup in private consumption due to tax cuts and a gradual return of investment growth. The agency also anticipates that new automotive and battery production capacities will boost Hungarian exports towards the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Fitch warns of Hungary’s high exposure to U.S. tariff increases, particularly in the manufacturing sector, including auto, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. The agency does not expect significant progress in unlocking EU funds by mid-2026, and projects net fund inflows to average 0.3% of GDP in 2025-2026, down from 1.8% in 2017-2022.
The Hungarian government implemented profit margin caps for retailers and voluntary price freezes in the banking, insurance, and telecom sectors in mid-March 2025, following above-average repricing of some goods and services at the start of the year. Fitch expects these price measures to remain in place until at least the beginning of the second quarter of 2026, predicting an average HICP of 4.6% in 2025-2026, above the projected peer median of 2.9%.
Given domestic price dynamics and the vulnerability of the forint, Fitch believes the central bank has limited room to ease monetary policy. The agency predicts the key rate to be 6.25% at the end of 2025, down from the current 6.5%, and 5.5% at the end of 2026.
Fitch projects small fiscal primary deficits of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026, following an improvement to a balanced position in 2024. The agency forecasts the fiscal deficit to narrow to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, up from 4.9% in 2024.
The government has announced targeted fiscal easing measures for families with children, young people, and mothers, set to gradually come into effect from October 2025. These measures are expected to cost about 0.3% of GDP from 2026. These follow a two-step rise in child allowances announced in 2024, which the Ministry for National Economy estimates will cost the budget a total of HUF900 billion (1% of GDP) over 2025-2028.
Fitch expects government debt/GDP to be on a modest downward path, despite expected small primary deficits and slower nominal GDP growth. The agency forecasts it will be 72.2% at the end of 2026, down from 73.5% in 2024, but above the pre-pandemic level and forecast ’BBB’ median of 58.4%.
The banking system remains stable, underpinned by a high average total capital ratio (20.1% in 2024), very strong profitability (return on equity at 17.9% in 2024), and liquidity buffers. The non-performing loans ratio improved to 2.3% at the end of 2024.
Fitch’s rating could be negatively affected by a deterioration in the policy mix that leads to the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances and/or undermines investor confidence, or a loose fiscal stance and/or weaker economic growth that prevents government debt/GDP from falling. On the other hand, a sustained decline in general government debt/GDP to closer to the peer median or an improved institutional environment and policymaking that support a strengthening of medium-term growth could lead to a positive rating action.
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