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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has affirmed India’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ’BBB-’ with a Stable Outlook, citing robust growth prospects and solid external finances.
The rating agency forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.5% for the fiscal year ending March 2026, unchanged from the previous fiscal year and significantly above the ’BBB’ median of 2.5%. Domestic demand is expected to remain strong, supported by ongoing public capital expenditure and steady private consumption.
Fitch noted that India’s economic outlook remains strong relative to peers, despite some moderation in momentum over the past two years. Nominal GDP growth is projected to expand by 9.0% in FY26, down from 9.8% in FY25 and 12.0% in FY24.
The rating agency identified potential US tariffs as a moderate downside risk to its forecast. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% headline tariff on India by Wednesday, though Fitch believes this will eventually be negotiated lower. While exports to the US account for only 2% of India’s GDP, tariff uncertainty could dampen business sentiment and investment.
Inflation in India has remained contained, with core inflation stable around the 4% mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India’s target band. Headline inflation fell to 1.6% in July, primarily due to easing food prices. The RBI cut its policy repo rate by 100 basis points to 5.5% between February and June 2025, with Fitch expecting one more 25 basis point cut this year.
On the fiscal front, India’s central government deficit decreased to 4.8% of GDP in FY25 from 5.5% in FY24. Fitch forecasts this will further decline to 4.4% in FY26, meeting the government’s objective of reaching a 4.5% deficit. However, the general government debt burden remains elevated at an estimated 80.9% of GDP in FY25, well above the 59.6% ’BBB’ median.
India’s external finances remain a rating strength, with foreign exchange reserves rising by $59 billion to $695 billion by August 15, 2025, providing around eight months of current external payment coverage.
Fitch identified several factors that could lead to a rating upgrade, including increased confidence in sustainable high medium-term growth and a fiscal strategy that keeps government debt and the interest-to-revenue ratio on a downward trend.
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