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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings raised Lebanon’s long-term local currency credit rating to ’CCC’ from ’CC’ on Thursday, while maintaining a stable outlook and affirming its foreign currency rating at ’SD’ (selective default).
The upgrade reflects the government’s improving ability to service its local currency commercial debt, supported by fiscal surpluses over the past two years and progress on reforms needed to access a new IMF program.
Lebanon’s local currency debt has shrunk dramatically to about 2% of GDP (less than $1 billion) at the end of 2024, down from approximately 100% of GDP before 2020, following a 98% depreciation of the Lebanese pound between 2019 and 2024.
The government has remained current on its commercial local currency obligations despite economic difficulties. It resumed interest payments to the Banque de Liban (BdL) in 2024 after stopping them from 2021 to 2023, and plans to repay accumulated arrears starting this year.
Lebanon’s new government, formed in early 2025 after parliament elected Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam as prime minister in January, has made progress on key reforms. Parliament ratified the amended Banking Secrecy Law in April and recently approved the Bank Restructuring Law, though it has yet to approve the Financial Gap Law needed to allocate past losses and compensate depositors.
Despite these positive developments, S&P notes that significant challenges remain. The agency does not expect major progress on debt restructuring before parliamentary elections in May 2026, five years after Lebanon defaulted on its Eurobond obligations. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to weigh on economic recovery prospects, despite a ceasefire signed in November 2024.
Lebanon’s economy contracted by an estimated 6.5% in 2024, following marginal contractions in 2022 and 2023. In dollar terms, the economy has halved from $55 billion in 2018 to $28 billion in 2024. S&P projects modest growth of 2.3% annually on average in 2025-2026.
The Lebanese pound has stabilized at approximately 89,500 per US dollar since February 2024. The country’s net government debt is projected to decline to 113% of GDP by the end of 2025, down from about 240% in 2022, due to improved fiscal performance, exchange rate stabilization, and high inflation-driven nominal GDP growth.
S&P forecasts Lebanon’s current account deficit will remain high but decline to an average of 18% of GDP over the next few years, down from an average of 23% in 2023-2024.
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