Luxembourg maintains AAA rating with stable outlook from S&P

Published 25/07/2025, 21:32
Luxembourg maintains AAA rating with stable outlook from S&P

Investing.com -- Luxembourg has maintained its ’AAA/A-1+’ long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings, with a stable outlook, the agency announced Friday.

The rating agency cited Luxembourg’s ample fiscal space, which allows it to weather economic challenges without undermining its net government asset position. S&P also highlighted the country’s policy flexibility and financial soundness to overcome potential global pressures on its tax system.

Luxembourg’s economy has remained fragile since emerging from a technical recession in 2023. S&P estimates real GDP growth in 2025 at just 1%, down from its previous forecast of 2.4% in January, due to weakening international trade conditions, geopolitical uncertainties, and financial sector volatility.

Despite these challenges, S&P expects growth to pick up in coming years, averaging 2.1% over 2026-2028. This improvement is anticipated due to easing monetary policy and improving growth across the eurozone, along with greater stability in the housing sector.

The rating agency noted that Luxembourg recorded a budget surplus of 1% of GDP last year, exceeding expectations. However, S&P forecasts this will decline to a 0.2% surplus in 2025 and shift to an average deficit of 0.9% of GDP over 2026-2028 as revenue growth slows while expenditure increases remain high.

Key fiscal risks identified include volatile corporate income tax receipts, pension system sustainability, and increased defense spending commitments. Luxembourg has pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of gross national income by 2035, in line with NATO agreements.

Despite these pressures, S&P estimates that Luxembourg’s net government asset position will remain robust at about 10% of GDP by end-2025, though slightly eroding to 6% by 2028.

The agency also highlighted that interest payments remain very low at under 1% of government revenue over 2025-2028, suggesting the projected gross debt burden is highly affordable.

As a global financial hub, Luxembourg continues to show high but falling levels of external indebtedness. The country’s narrow definition of net external debt improved to 139% of current account receipts in 2024, down from 255% in 2019.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.