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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has raised its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of San Marino to ’BBB+/A-2’ from ’BBB-/A-3’ with a stable outlook.
The upgrade reflects improved external and net debt data, with S&P now expecting San Marino’s net government debt-to-GDP ratio to reach about 32% in 2027 and 2028, significantly lower than its previous estimate of about 60%.
According to newly released external data, San Marino posted a current account surplus of 22.4% of GDP in 2023, up from 13.6% in 2022. The country also maintains a strong international net creditor position, supporting S&P’s positive assessment of its external position.
The rating agency cited San Marino’s wealthy economy, stable institutions, strong fiscal performance, and improving banking sector as key strengths. The country’s GDP per capita is estimated at about $59,700 for 2024.
S&P forecasts real GDP growth to average 1.1% over 2025-2028, with unemployment expected to remain below 4% during this period. The economy has shown resilience despite adverse effects from the war in Ukraine and monetary policy tightening.
The banking sector has made progress in reducing non-performing exposures (NPEs), with the gross NPE ratio declining to 17.7% as of March 2025 from 56.2% at the end of 2022. This improvement follows the establishment of the asset management company Società di Gestione degli Attivi (SGA).
S&P expects San Marino’s general government budget deficits to remain contained and average below 1% of GDP in 2025-2028, supported by steady nominal GDP growth and conservative spending management.
The rating agency noted that San Marino’s upcoming association agreement with the EU, set to become effective at the beginning of 2026, could provide upside to growth estimates by allowing Sammarinese companies greater access to European markets.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation of stable public finances, a strong external position, and gradual resolution of outstanding challenges in the banking sector.
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