Bitcoin: Inflows Keep Bull Case Alive Despite Middle East Conflict, Fed Risks

• Bitcoin holds steady above $100K despite Middle East tensions and a cautious investor mood.
• Fed meeting today could trigger sharp moves if policy signals a surprise to the market.
• Ethereum remains range-bound, with $2,400 support key ahead of potential breakout.
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Bitcoin prices are slightly lower at the start of the week. This does not yet mean a downward trend has started yet as the decline is primarily because of growing worries about the Middle East conflict, which is making investors cautious.

However, the reaction to the conflict so far has been minimal. Like in the stock market, this event may not cause a major Bitcoin crash.

Investors are now waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting today. The Fed is not expected to make any changes, but it will be interesting to read the statement for future guidance.

Is the Upward Trend in Bitcoin Running Out of Steam?

In recent weeks, the price of the world’s most important digital currency has moved sideways. This phase could soon decide its next short-term direction. There are solid arguments on both sides — for a continued rise and for a possible decline.

From the buyers’ perspective, it is a good sign that investors stayed calm despite the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. One clear example is the $301.7 million increase in ETF inflows at the end of last week. Another positive factor is progress in trade talks between Beijing and Washington, where signs of an agreement are emerging. This also supports the case for continued demand.

Those expecting a drop in prices are mainly counting on a more hawkish approach from the Federal Reserve, which is in no rush to cut interest rates further. Right now, markets expect the next rate cut—by 25 basis points—to happen in September. If that gets delayed, it could lead to a bigger correction in prices.

Another possible risk is the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. If the US becomes more directly involved—something former President Donald Trump is reportedly considering—it could put more pressure on the market.

Bitcoin Holds Above Crucial $100K Support

After the recent drop, Bitcoin is now near a key support level close to the psychological $100K mark. If this level breaks, it could be an important signal for sellers looking to push prices even lower.

If Bitcoin falls below the $100K level, the next target for sellers will likely be support at $98K. However, the main scenario still points to a continued upward trend, with a possible move toward testing and correcting the all-time highs. This positive outcome depends on avoiding the major risks mentioned earlier.

Ethereum Stuck in Range as Consolidation Drags On

For a while now, Ethereum has been underperforming compared to Bitcoin. Since early May, both have been moving sideways in a similar pattern. The main support level for Ethereum is around $2,400, which also marks the lower boundary of its current range.

The direction of the breakout will likely determine where Ethereum heads next. This could happen soon after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, especially if there is an unexpected outcome. A drop below the $2,400 support may lead to a move toward the $2,100 level.

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