Bitcoin’s Wave-Driven Path Points to $136K Breakout Before Year-End Rally

Published 23/07/2025, 20:26
Updated 23/07/2025, 20:52

In our previous update from almost a month ago, see here, when Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $107250, we showed by using the Elliott Wave (EW) Principle, that

“the rally from the June 22 low should be the gray W[ave]-i, and a brief pullback for the gray W-ii should be one’s final chance to get on the bull train to at least $136K. However, there should be plenty left in the tank from that level, as we would still need the gray W-iv, v, and green W-4, 5 to ultimately and ideally reach $174K, assuming the standard Fibonacci-based path is followed.”

Fast forward, and the gray Wave-i topped the same day (June 25, at $108196). Gray W-ii dropped to $150143 six days later, and the gray W-iii is now underway, so far reaching a high of $123220 on July 14. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Bitcoin’s daily price chart with our preferred EW count based on a Fibonacci-impulse pattern

Bitcoin Chart

Once again, our accurate Fibonacci-based EW analysis provided a reliable and accurate forecast. Additionally, in our last update, we also showed that

“a potential Bull flag is forming (dotted black lines), and a breakout above the upper descending trendline targets approximately $136000. This level is exactly at the 100.00% extension of the green W-1, measured from the June 22 low at around $98K, and represents a typical 3rd of a 3rd wave target within a standard Fibonacci-based impulse pattern as shown: gray W-iii of the green W-3.”

This bull flag remains active, and its target has not yet been reached. Therefore, we should anticipate more upside after the current multi-day consolidation concludes. Specifically, BTC has completed the orange W-3 within the gray W-iii of the green W-3 and appears close to finishing the orange W-4. Once done, the orange W-5 should target that $136K level.

Besides, there are still only four waves up from the gray W-ii low, so another move is necessary to complete the gray W-iii, since impulses involve at least five waves. Our overall target range of $164K to $216K, expected by year’s end, is supported by the 176.4% extension targeting $164913, while the current setup indicates more gains ahead for Bitcoin.

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