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As we look ahead to 2026, markets are entering a new phase defined by structural shifts in geopolitics, technology and macro policy. Our top 10 convictions outline the forces we believe will shape the year—and the opportunities they create for long-term investors.
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Global growth accelerates
We expect global economic growth to strengthen in 2026, driven by a renewed global capex cycle, still-accommodative monetary policies, ongoing fiscal support across the US, Europe and China, and a temporary easing in trade tensions. Inflation should remain warm but manageable.
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A new geopolitical and economic order
The world continues to shift away from the open-border, efficiency-driven globalisation of the 1990s–2010s toward a regime defined by national interest, strategic rivalry and economic security. The US–China competition will remain central. Both powers are prioritising three domains, AI, defence, and electric power, requiring tighter strategic alliances, currency war, reshoring, and greater control over critical commodities. This backdrop also implies structurally higher sovereign debt, increasingly absorbed via monetary expansion. The outcome is persistent inflation, elevated bond yields, and ongoing monetary debasement—making long-term exposure to real assets essential.
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The AI supercycle continues
The secular AI bull market is far from over. It is a multi-year, multi-sector growth engine. AI infrastructure investment triggers broad-based multiplier effects across construction, utilities, heavy industry, transportation, and urban development. This wave of spending extends well beyond technology alone.
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A broader US equity bull market
We expect US market leadership to widen beyond technology and communication services. Investors should avoid excessive concentration in a single theme and instead expand exposure to sectors poised to benefit from rising productivity and a global growth reacceleration, such as: industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, and mid-caps.
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US exceptionalism is here to stay—but diversify globally
Developed markets outside the US, along with emerging markets, are regaining momentum thanks to a stronger global backdrop and a weaker US dollar. Valuations abroad remain attractive relative to the US. Emerging markets, in particular, tend to outperform during Fed easing cycles and offer meaningful exposure to global tech innovation. International diversification is essential.
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A weaker dollar over the medium and long term
Although the dollar has stabilised recently, it remains vulnerable to fiscal and political uncertainty and the Fed’s rate-cutting path. We continue to view the Swiss franc as the strongest fiat currency.
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Commodities in structural deficit remain in a secular uptrend
AI infrastructure build-out, rising electricity needs and increasing defence spending are boosting demand for industrial and precious metals, as well as, critical minerals such as uranium and rare earths.
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G7 sovereign bonds remain poor diversifiers
Correlations between G7 government bonds and equities remain elevated, reducing their effectiveness as portfolio diversifiers. A renewed rise in G7 yields could even trigger the next market correction, making close monitoring essential. In particular, the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to serve as a key indicator for investors.
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Seek income diversification
Investing in bonds and companies outside the G7 can boost income while spreading risk across your portfolio.
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Alternatives to enhance risk-adjusted returns
Hedge funds, private debt, and infrastructure continue to offer attractive characteristics and can meaningfully improve portfolio risk/reward profiles.
As we enter 2026, these convictions reflect the trends and opportunities we believe will shape markets and guide investment decisions. We hope this Outlook helps you navigate the year ahead with confidence, focus, and a clear sense of where opportunities lie.