Gold prices dip as Dec rate cut bets ease; tech rout, fiscal fears limit losses
Yes, the AI tech is revolutionary. But this doesn’t mean that the current valuations make sense. The first cracks are already here.
Bitcoin verified its breakdown and is now sliding decisively below $100k. The breakout above the late-2024 high was just invalidated, and this is a huge deal from the psychological (=technical) point of view.
Panic Point Looms Below $75K
When we go below $75k – to new yearly lows – people will panic.
And if the anti-dollar fails, where will they turn to? Some might turn to gold, but… The history tells us that it’s the USD that’s likely to benefit, and gold is likely to suffer – at least in the medium term.
More importantly, the decline in bitcoin could pop the AI bubble on the stock market. Then it’s 2008 all over again.
The USD Index is currently verifying its yet another breakout above the declining resistance line – it’s now providing support. It’s ready for another rally.
Another reason for the rally in the USD and a decline in stocks?
If this is indeed 2008 all over again, we might not get a prolonged consolidation before the decline in the PMs continues – we would be likely to get a big, sharp decline.
Silver moved to a new all-time high this week, but it managed to stay there only for several hours. The invalidation of the breakout is a sell signal.
Yes, there are 100 reasons for silver to soar in the long term, while silver might take off any day – it seems much more likely to me that it will decline first.
Perhaps the upcoming decline in silver will create a handle of the huge cup-and-handle pattern that started in 2011.
If the 2008 is repeated, silver might decline profoundly, but let’s not forget that this decline was what launched white precious metal’s near-500% rally.