EUR/USD: Bearish Momentum Extends Below 1.1550 as US Dollar Strength Persists

EUR/USD closed the day at 1.1538, with intraday ranges between 1.1549 and 1.1535, marking another session of subdued volatility and persistent downside pressure. The pair continues to drift lower under the weight of a resurgent US dollar and weaker Eurozone data sentiment, maintaining a clear bearish tone below the 1.1600 mark.

Key Technical Observations

Moving Averages – Bearish Alignment:

• The 15-day moving average (1.1578) has crossed below the 20-day moving average (1.1592), confirming short-term downside momentum.
• Both averages are sloping downward, signalling that sellers remain dominant and rallies are likely to be capped near 1.1600–1.1650.

Trend Structure: The pair has established a clear lower-highs and lower-lows sequence since mid-October, consolidating below the 1.1600 zone. The breakdown below 1.1550 now exposes the 1.1450–1.1400 support region — a key area that, if broken, could trigger accelerated selling.

RSI Momentum: The RSI (14) is currently at 41.67, staying below the midline and indicating sustained bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold territory. This suggests that there remains room for further downside before any technical rebound occurs.

Price Behaviour: Candlestick patterns show consecutive small-bodied candles with lower closes, reinforcing the ongoing downward drift. A decisive daily close below 1.1500 would validate the continuation of the bearish trend, while any rebound attempt is likely to meet resistance near the 1.1600 pivot.

Macro & Market Context

US Dollar Strength Underpins the Move: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm near the 100.00 zone, supported by stronger U.S. economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. With U.S. yields remaining elevated, the dollar continues to outpace its G10 counterparts, including the euro.

Eurozone Fundamentals: Eurozone growth remains sluggish, with inflation moderating faster than anticipated — giving the ECB limited room to maintain a hawkish stance. Market expectations are increasingly leaning toward the possibility of policy easing later in 2025, which further undermines the euro’s appeal.

Yield & Policy Divergence: The widening rate differential between the U.S. and the Eurozone continues to drive capital flows into dollar-denominated assets, keeping the euro under persistent selling pressure.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 1.1600 – short-term pivot zone; capped by descending moving averages.
• Next Resistance: 1.1650 – former support turned resistance.
• Immediate Support: 1.1500 – psychological and technical support zone.
• Deeper Support: 1.1400 – next structural level from February swing low.

Bias: Bearish

The technical structure, moving averages, and RSI momentum all confirm a bearish bias. As long as the pair remains below 1.1600, the path of least resistance points downward toward 1.1450 and 1.1400.

Key Takeaways

• Bias: Bearish continuation below 1.1600.
• Trade Setup: Consider sell-on-rally opportunities near 1.1580–1.1600, targeting 1.1450.
• Alternative Scenario: A close above 1.1650 would invalidate the current bearish view and shift bias to neutral.