Gold Enters a Decision Band Above 4,000 as Bulls Test a Critical Reversal Zone

Gold futures are stabilizing after a sharp midweek test of support, carving out an important pivot structure just above the 4,000 handle. The 15-minute chart shows a decisive rejection from the low at 3997.4, followed by a constructive recovery into the 4,060–4,070 band. This zone is technically significant: it aligns with the VC PMI Daily Mean at 4,068 and sits inside the broader Fibonacci decision area between 38.2% (≈4,040) and 50% (≈4,116) of the 3,997–4,215 swing.

The VC PMI framework defines a well-structured intraday map. On the downside, Buy 1 Daily at 4,026 and Buy 2 Daily at 3,992 represent high-probability reversion zones, coinciding with the earlier swing low. As long as price holds above this cluster, the weekly structure remains corrective rather than outright bearish. On the upside, Sell 1 Daily at 4,102 and Sell 1 Daily at 4,228 frame the immediate profit-taking region should the market extend the current rebound.

Overlaying the weekly VC PMI reinforces the importance of this zone. Weekly Buy 1 at 3,982 and Buy 2 at 3,870 define the deep value area that generated the recent reaction. The Weekly Mean at 4,116 coincides with the 50% retracement and becomes the key threshold to convert this bounce into a sustained advance. A weekly close above 4,116 would unlock higher objectives toward 4,228 and 4,362, the Weekly Sell 1 and Sell 2 levels.

Momentum is starting to confirm the price action. The MACD on the 15-minute chart, while still slightly negative, has turned higher with a positive histogram, signaling an emerging bullish crossover from oversold territory. This supports the idea that the move off 3,997.4 is the first impulse of a larger mean reversion rather than a random bounce.

Looking into December, the cycle overlays (30-, 60-, and 90-day) suggest a potential upward phase aligning into year-end. If price can hold above 4,014–3,992 on any pullback and reclaim 4,102–4,116, the path opens for a progressive move back toward the 4,215 swing high and, potentially, a test of the higher weekly resistance band into late December.

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