Gold: Are Bulls Losing Grip as Risk-On Trade, Tariff Deals Shift Flows?

• Gold holds above key trend line but momentum loss hints at possible downside break.

• Tariff-driven inflation and a stronger dollar continue to weigh on gold’s upside case.

• Big Tech earnings and Fed tone may drive cross-asset sentiment including gold direction.

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Gold has made a quitter start to the new week after falling in the last three days of the previous week, when prices eventually ended down just under 0.4%. The lacklustre performance was not too dissimilar to the previous few weeks, with the metal trading largely in a holding pattern. Investors have been piling into stock markets, driving global benchmark indices to record levels.

Optimism over trade deals, some of which have come to fruition in the last few weeks, have been the main reason behind the risk rally. At the same time, the US dollar has shown some signs of support again, and this has provided additional headwind to the buck-denominated precious metal.

So, while the yellow metal hasn’t sold off significantly yet, there are increasing signs of a potential correction after it failed to reclaim the highs of earlier this year in the last couple of months. Still, the downside could be limited given the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariffs and his fiscal policy plans.

What’s Driving Markets

It’s been a lively start to the week on the trade front. The EU and the US have reached an agreement that sets 15% tariffs on a wide range of goods, with Brussels pledging to purchase a substantial $750 billion in American energy and commit a further $600 billion in investments.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen later confirmed that this 15% tariff will apply to the vast majority of EU exports, covering everything from cars and semiconductors to pharmaceuticals. One notable exception, however, is steel and aluminium, which will remain under a hefty 50% tariff — a point likely to stir some debate on both sides of the Atlantic.

Over in the East, the US and China appear poised to extend their current trade truce by 90 days, according to the South China Morning Post. Reuters has added that fresh talks are set to get underway “in the afternoon” in Sweden.

What’s Coming Up Next?

From a macro point of view, the next big event is the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday. While no rate cut is expected, despite Trump’s enthusiasm for one, markets will be hanging on every word of the Fed’s commentary for hints about where policy might be heading next.

We will also have a scattering of key economic data releases this week, from GDP figures to crucial jobs data, which will add yet more texture to the economic picture. But today, there’s literally nothing on the data calendar.

Then there’s the parade of Big Tech earnings to digest — with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) all set to report. These results will not only provide insight into the health of the sector but also into the broader market sentiment.

Ahead of these events, the US dollar has shown signs of strength recently, buoyed by decent economic data and inflation concerns. Trump’s bold fiscal promises and tariffs are stoking fears of more persistent inflation. While a rate cut in September could still be the case, sticky inflation could slow the pace of further easing. This matters because a stronger dollar could act as a headwind for gold.

Gold Breaking 2025 Bullish Trend Line?

Technically, the long-term chart of gold remains constructive, but the loss of momentum is starting to unnerve a few people. The precious metal was again testing its 2025 bullish trend line around the $3,320-$3,330 area. A decisive break of the trend line could unleash volatility.

The next key support below the trend comes in at $3,300 area, which has held in recent weeks. Below that, the June low of $3,247 comes into focus next.

On the upside, resistance is clustered around $3,350, $3,385 and $3,430. These levels need to get cleared, before the bulls can think about new highs again.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.

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