European stocks retreat on tech valuation concerns; U.K. economic woes
Gold futures completed a textbook hyperbolic exhaustion pattern last week, surging to a 15-minute high of 4250, precisely at the intersection of the Weekly Sell 1 (4228) and Daily Sell 2 (4164) levels. This tight confluence of the VC PMI probability model with Fibonacci geometry (notably the 78.6% and 61.8% retracements overhead) created a high-probability exhaustion cluster. Once price touched 4250, the market immediately triggered a rotational decline consistent with a hyperbolic climax.
The subsequent mean-reversion unfolded with precision: gold broke beneath 4120 (Daily Sell 1), then beneath 4090 (Fib 61.8%), ultimately reaching a capitulation low of 3997, almost exactly at the intersection of Daily Buy 2 (4019) and Weekly Buy 1 (3982). This confirms the VC PMI model’s predictive alignment — the market returned to the extreme of value in both the daily and weekly fractals.
From a cycle perspective, the compression into mid-November marks the end of a 30-day cycle decline that began immediately after the 4250 peak. MACD confirms downside exhaustion with a deep negative print and bullish divergence into the 3997 low. The 60-day and 90-day cycles remain in upward expansion, suggesting this correction is merely a temporary rotational repricing inside a larger bullish trend.
As of this morning, price has recovered back above the critical VC PMI trigger of 4063, the Daily Buy 1 level. This restores a bullish short-term bias and positions the market back toward the 4090–4120 inflection zone. A close above 4116 (Weekly VC PMI Mean) would activate upside targets at 4120–4164, and then potentially retest the weekly Sell 1 and Sell 2 zones at 4228–4362.
Downside risk remains structurally limited as long as price holds above 4022. Only a decisive close under 3982 would activate the deeper weekly Buy 2 at 3870 — an extreme-value accumulation zone.
Gold is now in a coiled compression, rebuilding energy for the next expansion phase into the December cycle window. Expect a breakout attempt between 4090–4120, with a rising probability of revisiting 4200+ before month-end.
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