Gold Faces Headwinds as Fed Rate-Cut Probability Rises

After reviewing the movements of gold futures on different time chart patterns, I observe that the gold futures appear ready to slide this week amid surging bearish pressure, despite lingering tensions between Japan and China, as well as uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and stretched fiscal spending concerns.

However, gold futures surged on Tuesday and Wednesday after some economic readings for September strengthened the case for further monetary easing by the Fed, as retail sales barely grew in the month, signaling persistent cooling in the U.S. economy.

Markets are pricing in an 80.7% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 9-10 meeting, up sharply from a 42.4% chance seen last week, CME Fedwatch showed.

Moreover, gold futures found some strength on Tuesday while the U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from a Thursday deadline for Ukraine to agree to a U.S.-backed peace plan and shrugged off a report that U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff coached the Russians on how to approach him on the topic.

But, I find that the gold futures are finding it difficult to hold above the significant resistance at $4196, despite repeated futile attempts since Nov. 12, 2025 after finding a reversal from the lows, tested on Oct. 28, 2025 at $3890.80 when the gold futures found a pull back on Oct. 28, 2025 to push the futures 11.41% from the tested peak on Oct. 21, 2025, within 8 days.

I anticipate that the money flow could shift from Gold to Bitcoin (Digital gold) as the bitcoin looks ready to bounce back after finding strong support at the 100 EMA ($83373) as bitcoin mining is quietly staging a comeback in China despite being banned four years ago, as individual and corporate miners exploit cheap electricity and a data center boom in some energy-rich provinces.

The rebound in bitcoin mining coincides with the digital asset hitting record highs in October on the back of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies, and growing distrust towards the dollar, making crypto mining more rewarding. The cryptocurrency, however, is down roughly a third from its October peak as global risk appetite wanes.

Finally, I conclude that the shift in money flow from gold to digital gold could trigger a selling spree as constant resistance faced by the gold futures at $4193, despite repeated attempts since Nov. 12, ensures a repetition of the same pull-down of approximately 6.5%, seen on Oct. 21, 2025, this week.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and bitcoin at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observation.