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Gold had been struggling in the past few weeks, particularly since Israel-Iran war-induced Risk-off moves failed to bring the precious metal to new all-time highs.
However, the bullion hasn’t retracted majorly from its elevated levels, still up around 28.60% in 2025 despite being about $200 from its ATH price – A sign of resilience.
The bearish formation from the first week of July got met with a renewed breakout, taking Gold up 2% from its 3,284 lows. New tariff announcements with the infamous Trump Letters are creating further uncertainty, leading to more outflows from US exposure.
US Stocks are down on the session, US Treasuries are once again downtrending since July 1st, Cryptocurrencies are up, and only the US Dollar is retracing upwards but without much strength.
Let’s take a look at Gold charts to spot what technicals are implying about the demand for the metal.
Gold Daily Chart
Source: TradingView
Looking back at our previous gold analysis, where we mentioned a potential interest for bulls to step in at the 2025 Upwards trendline, there have been some reactions.
Some rebounds have been observed on the trendline but have been contained by the broadly euphoric sentiment that propelled risk assets to new All-time highs, particularly with Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
It seems that the action is leading to some building up in Gold technicals, with Momentum starting to take another shift higher.
The Daily MA 50 ($3,325) is acting as immediate support and can be looked as a pivot – More on bullish/bearish pivots looking closer.
Gold 4H Chart
Source: TradingView
The action seen looking closer still shows choppiness, turning slightly bullish.
One of the main elements to spot is the resilience of the 3,300 Main Pivot that serves as a real magnet to retracements, with most attempts of breakout retracting to this zone.
Holding above however, gives more relative strength to buyers, especially if US Equities start to see less demand from the ongoing uncertainty. This will get more clarity after Tuesday’s CPI Data release which will also rewire Gold demand.
My expectations for the US CPI and reactions in Gold (things may play totally differently):
1. A miss on the CPI is bullish on Gold (more cuts, everything rallies – Extent of move depends on extent of the miss).
2. In-line CPI will lead to more rangebound, slightly bullish on Gold with the current US asset outflows, but fairly gradual
3. A beat, that may be expected with the latest tariff uncertainty, will have the most tricky outcomes.
- From my own view, a major beat on expectations will completely change the FED’s reaction function, and markets may start to price in some hikes, with US Yields raging upwards, demand for Gold may be impacted to the downside
- A relatively small miss will leave the range-bound picture intact, with some gradual rise in US Treasury yields also impacting demand
Gold 1H Chart
Source: TradingView
Mostly rangebound action as markets prepare for the US CPI, as seen with the flat and criss-crossing Moving Averages.
Short timeframes are currently overbought, but 50 and 200 Hours MAs are making a short-term golden cross; however, rangebound action can’t make much from short-term hourly moving averages.
Except for a break above the daily $3,368 Highs, a small consolidation around current levels would have the highest probabilities.
Safe Trades!