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After reviewing the movements of the gold futures in a daily chart, I find that the gold futures have tested a new high at $3698.55 on Tuesday in the face of a fresh political crisis in France, where Prime Minister Francois Bayrou resigned after losing a vote of confidence in the National Assembly while in Japan after PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, and prospects of more US sanctions against Russia following a deadly weekend strike by Moscow against Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, all such developments at the global level have pushed the gold futures once again into the selling territory, where extensive bearish pressure looks evident enough to attract big bears to load fresh shorts as the growing skepticism over the impact of the Supreme Court verdict on Trump’s plea is likely to overshadow bullish moves.
Undoubtedly, several Fed officials have signaled in recent weeks that the central banks will be open to rate cuts amid signs of cooling in the labor market, but they also flagged caution over sticky inflation, especially in the face of price increases stemming from US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs while US inflation data for August is due this week, with markets watching more upside in inflation, given that a bulk of Trump’s tariffs took effect last month.
I find that the current rally in gold which started in 2023 and accelerated after the joining of the US President Donald Trump amid surging fear among the global central banks, generated buying spree, seems to calm down as the focus will be shifted toward the final verdict by the US Supreme Court, as if the Supreme Court verdict keep the lower court ruling intact, Trump’s administration would be forced to issue massive refunds, which would be terrible for the Treasury.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a daily chart, gold futures are showing signs of exhaustion, as despite testing a new high on Tuesday at $3698.52, they are currently trading at $3683.55, which represents significant resistance.
I find that if the gold futures do not hold the immediate support at $3616 on Tuesday, the next support at the 9 DMA at $3598 could be tested, and a breakdown below this could push the futures to test the next support at $3578.
Inversely, any upward move to test the immediate resistance at today’s high will provide a good opportunity for big bears to load fresh shorts with a stop loss at $3781 for a target at $3422 up to Sept. 16, 2025.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold, as this analysis is based only on observations.