IBM Rallies on Earnings, Then Crashes as DOGE Cuts Bite

Published 24/04/2025, 11:39

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit, demonstrating resilience despite economic uncertainties from tariffs and federal cost cuts.

While the company exceeded analyst estimates with first-quarter sales increasing almost 1% to $14.5 billion and earnings per share of $1.60, concerns lingered about government contract cancellations related to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Despite the strong performance, IBM’s stock experienced a significant premarket decline following initial gains in extended trading.

IBM Reveals 15 Contracts with Federal Government Have Been Canceled

IBM revealed that approximately 15 of its contracts with the federal government have been canceled or paused due to cost-cutting initiatives led by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). These cancellations amount to roughly $100 million in future payments, raising concerns among investors about potential impacts on the tech giant’s revenue stream.

However, IBM’s Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh downplayed these concerns in an interview, noting that federal sales constitute less than 5% of IBM’s overall revenue.

The Trump administration’s commitment to reducing government spending across departments has created uncertainty for technology vendors with federal contracts, though IBM’s diversified business model appears positioned to weather these challenges.

IBM’s First-Quarter Results Are Better than Expected

IBM’s first-quarter financial results demonstrated remarkable strength amid economic uncertainties. Sales increased almost 1% year-over-year to $14.5 billion, while profit, excluding certain items, reached $1.60 per share – beating analysts’ average estimates by 12.04% according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In an unusual move that signals confidence, IBM provided quarterly guidance for the period ending in June, projecting sales between $16.4 billion and $16.8 billion, exceeding analysts’ projections of $16.3 billion. The company also maintained its full-year forecast of approximately $13.5 billion in free cash flow and at least 5% revenue growth in constant currency.

Software (ETR:SOWGn) continued to be IBM’s fastest-growing segment, with sales expanding 7% to $6.3 billion, while consulting revenue declined 2% to $5.1 billion and infrastructure sales dropped 6% to $2.9 billion.

IBM Stock Dips Significantly in Premarket

Despite the strong quarterly results, IBM’s stock exhibited volatile behavior. After initially increasing approximately 5% in extended trading following the earnings announcement, with shares closing at $245.48, the stock reversed course in pre-market trading the next day, falling 7.52% to $227.03.

This unexpected decline came despite IBM being viewed as a relative safe haven amid recent market turbulence.

Prior to this drop, IBM’s stock had increased 12% year-to-date, standing in stark contrast to the broader S&P 500 Index’s 8.6% decline over the same period. The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately $227.62 billion, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 38.24 and 22.22 respectively, indicating investors’ continued expectations for growth despite short-term volatility.

IBM’s Strategic Transformation Under New CEO

IBM continues its strategic transformation from a conventional computer company to one focused on high-growth software and services. The company has leveraged strategic acquisitions to expand its product portfolio, including the recent completion of the HashiCorp (NASDAQ:HCP) takeover in February and the $4.6 billion acquisition of Apptio in 2023.

Particularly notable is IBM’s growing emphasis on artificial intelligence, with bookings for AI consulting and software exceeding $6 billion since mid-2023 – up from the $5 billion reported during its January earnings call.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.

This article was originally published on The Tokenist. Check out The Tokenist’s free newsletter, Five Minute Finance, for weekly analysis of the biggest trends in finance and technology.

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