Gold prices dip as December rate cut bets wane; Fed, econ. data in focus

Investing.com-- Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, extending losses from the prior session as traders steadily pared back expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

The yellow metal was pressured by a stronger dollar, while increased risk-aversion, amid bets on delayed rate cuts and heightened economic uncertainty, also did little to deter gold’s losses.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,053.84 an ounce by 00:33 ET (05:33 GMT), while gold futures for December fell 0.9% to $4,055.91/oz. 

Gold under pressure as traders price out Dec. rate cut 

Gold’s recent losses were fueled chiefly by traders steadily pricing out expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. 

Markets were seen pricing in a 39.8% chance for a 25 basis point cut during the Fed’s December 10-11 meeting, down sharply from a 61.9% chance seen last week, CME Fedwatch showed. 

Bets on a hold grew to 60.2% from 38.1% last week. 

This was fueled chiefly by increased uncertainty over the U.S. economy, especially as the country recently emerged from its longest ever government shutdown. The shutdown is expected to have delayed or disrupted several key economic prints for October, especially inflation and employment.

A lack of insight into the two leaves the Fed flying blind into the December meeting. Market expectations for a hold were also furthered by increasing signs of sticky U.S. inflation, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell was largely non-commital towards a December rate cut. 

High for longer rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets such as gold and other metals.

Among other precious metals, spot platinum rose 0.1% to $1,548.0/oz but was nursing steep losses from the prior session, while spot silver was flat at $50.5795/oz, also having tumbled from near record highs last week. 

Dollar steady with Fed minutes, US econ. data due this week

The dollar firmed slightly on Monday, recovering a measure of last week’s losses. The dollar index rose 0.1%.

Focus this week will be on a host of U.S. economic cues, with the government’s nonfarm payrolls print for September due on Thursday. Purchasing managers index data for November is also due this week. 

The minutes of the Fed’s October meeting are due on Wednesday, and are expected to offer more insight into the central bank going into December’s decision. 

Inflation and employment are the Fed’s two biggest considerations for interest rates.

But U.S. officials recently signaled that the two prints may never be released for October, due to the shutdown.