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Is the Nasdaq 100 Forming an Even Larger Top?

Published 12/12/2023, 20:05
Updated 09/07/2023, 11:31

Late November, see here, we were based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) looking for the Nasdaq 100 to put in a local top, drop to ideally $15,750, while holding above $15,738 on a daily closing basis. The next step would then be

A daily close above $16,120 [will] allow us to be more confident [to] look for $16,315-620 for the green W-5 of the red W-v of the black W-c/3.

The index reached $16,166 on November 29 intra-day but closed at $15,987. Since we work on daily closing prices, which are the essential price of the day, it was close to $ 16,120, but there was no cigar for the Bulls. It was a B-wave. Similarly, on December 4, the index bottomed out at $15,695 but closed at $15,839. Also, close ($15,738 was the cut-off), but no cigar for the Bears this time.

From that low, the index rallied to new uptrend highs: green W-5 of red W-v of black W-c/3. See Figure 1 below. Thus, our assessment was -overall- correct, albeit the green W-4 became a bit more complex than anticipated.

Figure 1. NASDAQ 100 daily resolution chart with technical indicators and detailed EWP count.NDX-Daily Chart

The red dotted arrows show building negative divergences on the technical indicators, typical for the W-4, 5 set up we are tracking. For example, the daily MACD has yet to produce a new buy cross after giving a sell signal for W-4. And Money Flow is lagging. Since liquidity drives markets, this is important. However, although divergence must always be noted, it is only divergence until it is not. It is a condition, not a trigger. In the end, price is always the final arbiter and trade trigger. For example, after the index bottomed out on December 4, we informed our premium members on December 6 that as long as the index would hold the $15695 low, we would be on our way to $16295+. The blue dotted arrow in Figure 2 was our symmetry and EWP-based trade trigger: a break above $ 15,990 would target $ 16,250+.

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Thus, the NDX should now wrap up the smaller waves (grey W-iii, -iv, and -v) of the green W-5. See Figure 2 below. From Figure 2 we deduce the first level the Bulls must hold is $ 15,990. Below that is a severe warning the more significant top has been struck because 1st and 4th waves (grey W-i, iv in this case) are not allowed to overlap in a standard impulse. The next level to hold is $15,690. Below that, the green W-5 cannot subdivide anymore, and the Bears can target $15,382, possibly as low as $ 14,700.

Figure 2. NASDAQ 100 hourly resolution chart with technical indicators and detailed EWP count.NDX-Hourly Chart

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