Stock market today: S&P 500 ends lower as Fed rate cut, outlook meet expectations
The chart below is quite insane: money printing is back, and it matters.
Real-economy, spendable, potentially inflationary money is created by the government and banks.
Governments create new money for the private sector when they incur in primary deficits: they tax less and spend more, therefore injecting new money into households and corporate bank accounts.
Government deficits coincide with wealth surpluses in the private sector.
Banks create money when they make a new loan: for example, a mortgage allows an individual to purchase a house with newly created money, which ends up in the bank account of the seller.
Tariffs have recently acted as a tax for the US, reducing primary deficits and negatively impacting money creation for the real economy.
But the US is still printing money - this time, via bank lending.
The chart below shows the Commercial and Industrial loans produced by US banks, and take a look at the sharp increase we’ve witnessed recently!
The AI-related capex is really large, and it is often debt-funded.
Expenditures in data centers have now surpassed capex in commercial real estate, and the trend is only set to continue.
What happens when next year the OBBB kicks in, and the US fiscal stimulus combines with the bank-lending-driven money printing?
In one word: BRRRR.
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