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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment.

’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong...
This is the most important chart to watch for asset allocators.Over the last 10 years people loved bonds because of one simple yet amazing property - a negative correlation to stock markets. Investors...
The bond market is smelling trouble.The chart below shows my proxy for the US Fiscal Dominance theme. The bond market is clearly smelling trouble by pricing an aggressive resurgence of Fiscal...
The chart below shows the option-adjusted credit spreads for US BBB-rated corporate bonds with a 10-year maturity.Credit spreads are always positive: for corporations to attract investors to buy their...
Macro (BCBA:BMAm) 101: What’s R*, the real equilibrium interest rate? When setting interest rates, Central Banks aim to achieve price stability (and in some cases also maximum employment like the...
This chart is insane. The amount of $ spent in data centers is now almost bigger than what the US spends in office construction. Just to give you a reference: in 2022, $ spent on office construction...
This is how the Treasury General Account (TGA) will soon impact liquidity. At the July QRA, the US announced its intention to replenish the Treasury General Account (TGA) up to $850 billion by the...
The US economy and markets might face a double negative whammy over the next 2 months: a large reduction of the fiscal impulse and the aggressive rebuild of the Treasury General Account (TGA).A...
Is a Warp-Speed ‘Run It Hot’ Policy Coming in 2026?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Aug 13, 2025
I believe the US economy might be entering a temporary slowdown (’’Run It Cold’’ now), which will allow the {{Fed}} to cut a few times right before the 2026 ’’Run...
Pay attention to what's about to happen in the US. The US is about to face a fiscal tightening over the next 3-4 months. Yes, you read it correctly: a fiscal tightening. How is this possible? The US...