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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Without properly understanding money, it’s basically impossible to connect the countless dots of the global macro puzzle.Yet, we assume we know all about money: universities and mainstream...
The chart below is quite insane: money printing is back, and it matters.Real-economy, spendable, potentially inflationary money is created by the government and banks. Governments create new money for...
It’s not a debate anymore: US companies and consumers are paying for US tariffs!Recently, Piper Sandler shared an excellent piece of research that shed light on a key macro question: who is...
Last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll print was once again weak, and the narrative by which the labor market looks ’’balanced’’ on low demand and low supply is getting...
There is a ’’silent rally’’ you are not paying enough attention to.The World Gold Council recently released its annual survey where they ask official institutions (read: mostly...
’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong...
This is the most important chart to watch for asset allocators.Over the last 10 years people loved bonds because of one simple yet amazing property - a negative correlation to stock markets. Investors...
The bond market is smelling trouble.The chart below shows my proxy for the US Fiscal Dominance theme. The bond market is clearly smelling trouble by pricing an aggressive resurgence of Fiscal...
The chart below shows the option-adjusted credit spreads for US BBB-rated corporate bonds with a 10-year maturity.Credit spreads are always positive: for corporations to attract investors to buy their...
Macro (BCBA:BMAm) 101: What’s R*, the real equilibrium interest rate? When setting interest rates, Central Banks aim to achieve price stability (and in some cases also maximum employment like the...