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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Pay attention to what's about to happen in the US. The US is about to face a fiscal tightening over the next 3-4 months. Yes, you read it correctly: a fiscal tightening. How is this possible? The US...
Has Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Skewed Jobs Data?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Aug 04, 2025
President Donald Trump's immigration policies are starting to weigh on the US labor market. The recently released NFP numbers caught many by surprise: after revisions, the US is now adding only...
President Donald Trump just announced a deal with the EU. Trump and Von Der Leyen announced they reached a deal which will see the US impose 15% tariffs on EU exports including cars. Europe also...
US companies and consumers are paying for tariffs. Piper Sandler shared an excellent piece of research which shed light on a key macro question: who is paying for US tariffs so far? The US has been...
US stock markets have been such a bad investment lately (''What? Did Alf have a pizza indigestion?''). Not really, I am just looking at data. The chart below shows the relative performance of the...
If long-end bond yields spiral out of control, the Fed could start injecting liquidity again: a step-by-step guide of how it works. When a few weeks ago 30-year bond yields briefly flirted with the...
Amidst all the noise, markets haven’t had time to digest 5 key macro news: 1) Elon Musk announces formation of ‘’America Party’’ 2) Speaker Mike Johnson: "We're gonna have a second reconciliation...
One of the key macro concepts to familiarize oneself with is Fiscal Dominance. Fiscal dominance is a concept that implies back-to-back primary fiscal deficits that juice nominal growth while the...
If you think 30-year US yields at 5% are high, think again. The bond market seems to be revolting again, and understandably so. However you cut and slice it, 30-year US yields should rather sit at...
Trump wants to run the economy hot to grow out of debt. So, what are the implications for markets? The Trump administration's plan for the next 12 months could look like the following: 1) More...