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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment.

US stock markets have been such a bad investment lately (''What? Did Alf have a pizza indigestion?''). Not really, I am just looking at data. The chart below shows the relative performance of the...
If long-end bond yields spiral out of control, the Fed could start injecting liquidity again: a step-by-step guide of how it works. When a few weeks ago 30-year bond yields briefly flirted with the...
Amidst all the noise, markets haven’t had time to digest 5 key macro news: 1) Elon Musk announces formation of ‘’America Party’’ 2) Speaker Mike Johnson: "We're gonna have a second reconciliation...
One of the key macro concepts to familiarize oneself with is Fiscal Dominance. Fiscal dominance is a concept that implies back-to-back primary fiscal deficits that juice nominal growth while the...
If you think 30-year US yields at 5% are high, think again. The bond market seems to be revolting again, and understandably so. However you cut and slice it, 30-year US yields should rather sit at...
Trump wants to run the economy hot to grow out of debt. So, what are the implications for markets? The Trump administration's plan for the next 12 months could look like the following: 1) More...
People have been mesmerized by the massive US stock market performance since the lows of April. Recently, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also been outperforming previous high fliers such as...
The US Dollar just had its worst start of the year in many decades. And it could get worse going forward. In the first 6 months of the year, the Trump administration has clearly shown its true...
I think this is the most important macro chart in the world right now. The chart shows the 120-day rolling correlation between EUR and SPX. This is a key correlation for big asset allocators such as...
Almost nobody owns this asset class, which could produce strong returns. The chart below displays a study from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) that looked at the actual allocation towards Emerging Market...