Nasdaq 100 Eyes New Highs on Geopolitical Optimism, Tech Relief and Rate Cut Bets

• Markets cheer hopes of Putin-Trump summit and tariff relief for tech.
• Fed officials hint at rate cuts as labour market softens.
• Index holds bullish channel, eyes fresh all-time highs.
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The bulls are back in charge. Following last week’s pullback, dip buyers stepped in once again, pushing the Nasdaq 100 Futures up by 0.8% by mid-morning in London. European equities joined the rally, with Germany’s DAX climbing 1.4%. The FTSE lagged, weighed down by a hawkish BoE rate cut that ended up supporting the GBP/USD pair above $1.34.

Globally, sentiment was upbeat, driven by a blend of geopolitical optimism, tech tariff exemptions, and growing speculation the Fed could cut rates as soon as September. Travel and leisure stocks outperformed in Europe on strong earnings, but investors largely shrugged off troubling data — like Germany’s industrial output plunging 1.9% month-on-month, its worst reading in nearly a year.

Let’s quickly now look at some levels on the chart of the Nasdaq futures before turning our attention to macroeconomics later.

Nasdaq 100 Futures: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 futures remains in a clear uptrend, trading just shy of its all-time highs. Higher highs, rising trendlines, and supportive moving averages all point to continued bullish momentum — for now. Last week’s bearish engulfing candle hinted at a reversal, but there’s been no follow-through. Instead, the index held the bullish channel and bounced firmly from support near 22,800.

With the resistance zone between 22,290 and 23,445 now broken, that area becomes first-line support on any pullback. Below that, the rising channel trendline and the 22,800 level are key. On the upside, 23,650 remains pivotal, having briefly capped price action last week. Beyond that, traders will set sights on the record high at 23,845, followed by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 24,050.

Geopolitics and Tariffs Lift Sentiment

Markets welcomed confirmation of a potential Trump-Putin summit, raising hopes of progress — or at least de-escalation — in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For European consumers and investors, any reduction in geopolitical tension is good news

Trump’s latest tariff twist also landed better than expected. While a 100% tariff was slapped on imported semiconductors, US-based manufacturers — like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) — would be exempt, which helped calm tech investors. Tariffs on Swiss goods, however, remain after the country’s failed appeal.

Rate Cut Hopes Fuel Risk Appetite

Despite tariff noise, investors aren’t panicking about inflation — largely because signs of a weakening US economy are mounting. That’s pushed traders to bet on rate cuts. Three Fed officials, including Mary Daly, flagged concerns over a deteriorating labour market, with Daly hinting a rate cut could be needed “in the coming months.”

Caution Lingers Beneath the Surface

It looks like momentum, more than fundamentals, is driving this rally — and AI excitement continues to lift tech. With low volatility and strong earnings behind them, bulls are still in control. Short-sellers remain wary, often exiting quickly and leaving the door open for more dip-buying. So, despite growing macro concerns, the path of least resistance is still upwards. But for how long is anyone’s guess, before we see a sizeable correction. I feel we are getting closer to that time, but confirmation is needed.

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