- Markets are staying positive as Trump hints at a major trade deal; tech and European stocks gain sharply.
- Nvidia surges as rollback of AI chip curbs looms, though long-term export policy remains unclear.
- US-China talks could take months; weekend meeting may bring calm, not immediate breakthroughs.
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Nasdaq futures (+1.5%) led the stock market surge in the first half of Thursday’s session on trade deal optimism, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (+3.1%) and other chipmakers rising in pre-market. European markets also rose with the DAX nearing its March all-time high.
The positive sentiment saw Bitcoin get to within a spitting distance from the $100K mark, while haven assets like gold and yen dropped and the dollar index moved into the positive territory for the week, now on its third week of mild gains. The growing optimism was driven by President Donald Trump hinting a “major” trade deal was imminent, with media reports suggesting it is with the UK, and first of many.
China is also starting trade talks with the US at the weekend, boosting optimism that the world’s largest economies are finally ready to start negotiations on a deal.
Optimism Ahead of UK-US Deal Announcement
Today’s gains in futures come after US stocks climbed higher on Wednesday by hopes of progress on trade ahead of a US-China meeting this weekend, while the Fed’s slightly hawkish tone was already expected. Things happened late in the days when Trump posted about a “major” trade deal that was imminent, boosting optimism that the US was making headway in tariff negotiations, marking the first of many promised deals.
Now here is the thing: US-UK trade talks don’t usually move global markets all that much, but today might be the exception. What everyone’s really watching is whether the US decides to scrap the 10% baseline tariff that’s been hanging around during this so-called “pause” in trade tensions.
Right now, the consensus is leaning toward those tariffs staying put. Why? Because Washington could use the tariff revenue to help offset the cost of expected summer tax cuts. But if those tariffs do come off the table, that’s a clear bullish surprise.
US-China Trade Negotiations Could Take Months
But one thing to take into account is that markets may have already priced in optimism over potential trade deals. While the US has said here will be “substantial reduction” in tariffs and talks with several partners are progressing well, the market has already rallied significantly. Some would argue that without actual trade deals, it doesn’t make sense for markets to keep pushing higher, given the risk of tariffs remaining in some form or the US and China failing to strike a deal, and soon.
The weekend’s meeting with China appears geared more towards de-escalation than breakthroughs for now, so it could be a long wait until we do actually see a trade agreement between the US and China.
Nvidia Among Chipmakers to Watch
Chipmakers got a shot in the arm late in the day yesterday. Word is, the Trump camp plans to roll back some of the Biden-era AI chip curbs — and markets are reacting fast. That’s a clear positive for the sector, with investors jumping on the news. But it’s not a full green light just yet.
The US is reportedly drafting new rules to tighten controls on overseas chip exports. So, while there’s relief now, the longer-term picture still depends on how strict these replacement regulations turn out to be. Still, Nvidia looks poised to add to its solid 3% gains from the day before – let’s see if it can climb back into the $1.20s and catch up with the wider market recovery.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis
From a technical viewpoint, the rebounding stock markets continue to erode the bears’ control, not just in the US but across the world, especially European indices. As far as the Nasdaq is concerned, well, it too is looking increasingly strong, ever since it reclaimed the 21-day exponential moving average and took out the short-term bear trend in the second last week of April.
The interim higher highs and higher lows, coupled with more rising daily candles than falling ones, are all indications of a bullish trend. Unless we now see a distinct bearish reversal pattern, this remains a dip-buying market. 
Key Levels to Watch
Among the short-term support levels to watch:
- 20,133 – yesterday’s high and first line of defence for the bulls now
- 20,000 – psychologically important level, which was also previously support and resistance
- 19,678 – yesterday’s low. If we break this then that is the first sign of a possible bearish reversal
Resistance or potential resistance levels to watch:
- 20,276 – the most recent high, coming in just below the 200-day average
- 20,500 – former resistance and the highs before the reciprocal tariffs announcement made in April
- 20,694 – another old broken support level
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