Robinhood reports August 2025 customer and trading metrics
The Nasdaq latest all-time high isn’t just another milestone in tech’s seemingly unstoppable climb. It’s a blunt message from Wall Street: traders are convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates, and soon.
On Monday, the Nasdaq jumped 0.45% to finish at 21,798.70, marking its highest close ever. The S&P 500 gained 0.21% to 6,495.15, while the Dow advanced 0.25% to 45,514.95. These numbers, taken at face value, look like another bullish session. But under the surface, they reveal a market betting aggressively that the Fed is about to step in to shore up the economy.
Friday’s weak jobs report was the tipping point. The data exposed further cracks in the labour market, intensifying fears of a slowdown.
Traders immediately priced in a quarter-point rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. A 50-basis-point move remains unlikely, but the fact that futures even assign it a 10% probability shows how desperate markets are for policy relief.
The Nasdaq’s strength is being carried by heavyweight tech names. Broadcom gained more than 3% after doubling down on its forecast for AI-driven revenues, boosting its market capitalisation to $1.6 trillion.
Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) and Applovin (NASDAQ:APP) surged after news they’ll join the S&P 500 later this month, while EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) soared 20% following a $17 billion spectrum deal with SpaceX.
But this rally isn’t simply about chips and AI. It’s about liquidity. The dominant belief is that cheaper borrowing costs are coming, and investors are positioning accordingly.
Capital is flowing into equities with the expectation that monetary policy will be eased to stave off a sharper downturn.
That conviction is visible in the bond market. Yields continue to fall as traders bet on a sustained series of cuts. Futures now suggest a two-thirds chance that rates fall toward 3.5%–3.75% by December. This is a remarkable shift in outlook in the space of a few days, driven almost entirely by that weaker payrolls print.
What this shows is just how fragile confidence is. Investors are not only expecting the Fed to cut—they’re counting on it to extend the cycle. That dependence is dangerous. If policymakers deliver less than the market demands, sentiment could reverse violently. The rally built on optimism could just as easily unravel on disappointment.
This week’s inflation numbers and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll revision will be crucial. Both will shape whether markets double down on expectations for deeper cuts.
Even if inflation data runs hotter, the Fed is likely to treat tariff-induced price pressures as temporary. Right now, stabilizing growth is the louder priority.
The breadth of the rally remains limited. Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended lower on Monday, led by utilities, down 1.07%. Decliners slightly outpaced advancers across the broader index.
Yet the Nasdaq posted 136 new highs—a testament to how concentrated the momentum is in growth-heavy, rate-sensitive areas of the market.
The Nasdaq’s record close is therefore more than a statistical footnote. It captures the mood of an investor base pushing the Fed toward action. Traders are essentially daring policymakers to validate their bets. If the Fed cuts as expected, the rally could extend into a new leg. If not, the reversal could be sharp.
This moment should not be mistaken for routine market noise. It’s the opening salvo in what could be a defining phase of policy and performance. The Fed faces a critical test. Markets have spoken loudly; the question is whether the central bank will keep pace with the bets being placed.